- China is building a colossal hydropower system that will dwarf the Three Gorges Dam in a particularly unstable region. By tunnelling through mountains that surround the planet’s biggest canyon, the project is an ultra-ambitious gamble on clean energy–and one with potential consequences for China’s neighbours.
· Iron Ore Grade Shift: An Opportunity for Positive Change, Not Instability
Dissatisfaction with the way iron ore is priced — historically the preserve of physical buyers and sellers — has widened to financial markets as the industry prepares for a major change in its benchmark. Futures contracts dated from 2026 are to be revalued shortly using a new 61pc Fe specification, replacing the established 62pc Fe standard. This shift has introduced widespread uncertainty. Confused about the impact of the 61-62pc Fe spread on current and forward values, futures traders are scaling back their positions, while a widening gap between a legacy reference price and product prices is complicating physical contracts.
· Trafigura wins $600 million nickel fraud lawsuit against businessman Gupta
Trafigura won its London lawsuit against Indian businessman Prateek Gupta over fake nickel cargoes on Friday, with London’s High Court ruling in favour of the commodities trader.
Geneva-based Trafigura alleged Gupta was the mastermind of a fraudulent “Ponzi scheme” in which he and his companies agreed to provide high-quality 99.8% pure nickel but delivered low-value or even worthless materials instead.
Gupta accepted he did not deliver high-grade nickel cargoes but says Trafigura staff devised the scheme, something Trafigura’s former head nickel trader Sokratis Oikonomou denied when giving evidence. Judge Pushpinder Saini ruled that Trafigura was induced to enter into contracts “by false and fraudulent representations” made by Gupta and his companies.
The judge also said Trafigura’s former employees, including Oikonomou, were “wholly innocent of any wrongdoing”.
A Trafigura spokesperson said the ruling “comprehensively finds in favour of Trafigura and recognises the systematic fraud perpetrated by Mr Gupta and the corporate defendants”.
· US and Iran to seek de-escalation in nuclear talks in Oman, regional official says
Iran has said it will not make concessions on its formidable ballistic missile programme — one of the biggest in the Middle East — calling that a red line in negotiations.
· Bunge forecasts 2026 profit below estimates on macroeconomic uncertainty
Bunge on Wednesday forecast current-year adjusted profit below analysts’ expectations, as volatile commodity markets and tighter margins hurt the global grain trader.
A slump in grain prices, weak crop-processing margins and geopolitical tensions have eroded profitability in the sector, affecting Bunge and peers such as ADM and Cargill.
Bunge executives had flagged in November last year that uncertainty over trade and biofuels policy will be a drag on fourth-quarter earnings as farmers selling crops to the company and customers buying its products have been reluctant to book deals beyond the near-term.
Last month, Reuters reported that the Trump administration plans to finalize 2026 biofuel blending quotas by early March. The quotas were originally expected in late October 2025.
The delay has pushed one of the administration’s most consequential energy policy choices into 2026. Without clarity on quotas, companies said they were forced to hold back on deals and spending decisions that shape output and margins.
Rival grain trader Archer-Daniels-Midland, whose operations are more concentrated in the U.S., forecast 2026 adjusted profit below analysts’ expectations on Tuesday due to the deferral of U.S. biofuel policy.
· Kremlin says it sees nothing new in India’s plan to diversify its oil supplies
The Kremlin said on Wednesday that it saw nothing new in India’s announcement that it would diversify its oil supplies as New Delhi has always bought oil from different countries, including Russia.
Trade Minister Piyush Goyal said earlier on Wednesday that India would diversify its energy sources as a strategy amid changing global circumstances to ensure energy security for its citizens. Goyal’s statement followed the announcement by U.S. President Donald Trump on Monday of a U.S.-India trade deal. Trump spoke about New Delhi halting its Russian oil purchases, something that India has not publicly confirmed since. Asked about India’s oil purchase plans, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said everyone knew that Russia was not the only supplier of oil to India.
“We, and not only us, but all specialists in the field of international energy affairs, are well aware that Russia is not the only supplier of oil and petroleum products to India,” Peskov told reporters. “India has always purchased these products from other countries. That is why we do not see any new developments here.”
· Oil prices rise on U.S.-Iran tensions; broader selloff caps gains
Oil prices rose on Wednesday after the U.S. shot down an Iranian drone and armed Iranian boats approached a U.S.- flagged vessel, rekindling fears of an escalation between Washington and Tehran ahead of planned talks.
Brent crude oil futures were up 46 cents, or 0.7%, at $67.79 a barrel by 1034 GMT. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude was up 52 cents, or 0.8%, at $63.73. Both benchmarks have seesawed this week between news of talks to de-escalate tensions between the United States and Iran and heightened fears of potential disruption to oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
· In Rust We Trust
The Currency That Stays Afloat
If the first month of 2026 taught us anything, it’s that the playbook we have grown accustomed to has essentially been thrown overboard. We’ve witnessed the capture of a head of state, a Venezuelan oil sector suddenly open for privatization, and a market that can’t decide if it’s drowning in oil or desperate for steel.
While the headlines focus on the political theater involving the capture of the Venezuelan president, a quieter but far more critical reality is taking shape on the water.
The global tanker fleet is aging at a rate that defies historical norms, and when you combine a geriatric fleet with a weakening dollar and a sudden appetite for scrapping, you get a recipe for asset inflation that ignores the bearish supply and demand logic of the IEA.
We crunched the numbers on the current trading fleet and the orderbook to see just how deep this age cliff goes. The results are stark. If we define “older tonnage” as vessels built in 2011 or earlier, we’re looking at a fleet that’s rapidly approaching obsolescence. In the VLCC and Suezmax sectors, approximately 48% of the trading fleets will be over 15 years old this year. The situation deteriorates further as you move down the sizes, with 53% of Aframaxes/LR2s and 51% of MRs pushing past their 15th birthday. The true geriatric ward of the industry is the Panamax sector, where a staggering 74% of the fleet was built before 2011. In a normal market, these ships would quietly fade into the background or be scrapped in an orderly fashion. But this isn’t a normal market. The capture of the Venezuelan leadership has sent shockwaves through the “dark fleet” and introduced a fascinating curveball. The number of reported sanctioned VLCC’s stands near 200 vessels and over 130 sanctioned Suezmaxes. These are vessels that have been operating in the shadows, kept alive by illicit trades.
However, reports are now circulating that cash buyers like GMS have applied for an OFAC license to legally scrap these sanctioned vessels.
If this license is granted, we aren’t just talking about a few ships hitting the beaches in India or Bangladesh; we’re looking at a potential mass extinction event for a large portion of the shadow fleet. This would tighten the effective trading supply almost overnight. This leads to the billion-dollar question of reinvestment. The selling frenzy isn’t limited to the shadows.
We’re seeing a broad exodus of second-hand tonnage from traditional Owners who are looking at current asset values and deciding it’s time to cash in. These sellers are now sitting on exceptionally deep pockets, but they face a dilemma. Capital needs a home, and the shipyards are effectively closed for business until 2029. You can’t simply order a replacement and wait. The savvy money is realizing that the only available play is immediate consolidation.
Look at Sinokor. They’re aggressively cornering the vintage VLCC market, betting that immediate steel on the water is worth more than a promise of delivery four years from now. They’re redeploying their war chests into the only assets available, turning the “old” fleet into the “gold” fleet.
There are still headwinds to consider. Yes, the IEA has forecasted a global oil surplus of nearly 3.7 million barrels per day for 2026, which would typically act as a lid on rates. But OPEC sees a balanced market, and the spread between those two forecasts is the difference between a depression and a boom. Another counterweight to this surplus is the currency itself. The U.S. dollar has weakened significantly over the last year, and ships are dollar-denominated assets. As the greenback slides, the nominal value of these steel assets naturally inflates. You’d rather hold a tangible asset like a ship than a depreciating currency.
So, what’s the verdict? It’s possible that asset prices haven’t yet found their ceiling. The fleet is simply old and the replacement timeline is long. We’re missing the “black swan” of a sanctioned fleet scrappage event, which could remove hundreds of ships from the water faster than anyone expects. While the oil surplus suggests we should be cautious on freight rates, the asset play remains strong. The smart money is buying time, quite literally, by buying the only ships available. In a world of uncertainty, steel is providing a very compelling hedge, which suggests maybe we should be looking at the scrapyard to see where the next bull run begins.
· Indonesia’s stock market rout smokes out long-standing manipulation issues
Market participants sceptical if promised measures will be enough to counter ‘open secret’
Indonesia’s stock rout last week triggered by index provider MSCI’s threat to downgrade Indonesian equities called attention to the market’s opacity, which has allegedly become a hotbed for market manipulation.
While Indonesian Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa insisted on Tuesday that proposed market reforms by financial authorities would satisfy the improvement demands of MSCI, market sources say that the issues are so deep-rooted that those may not be enough.
MSCI, which provides benchmarks guiding investment globally, declared Jan. 27 that it was concerned about “opacity in shareholding structures” and “possible coordinated trading behaviour” on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. It gave Indonesia until May to reform or face Indonesian equities having their weight reduced or downgraded.
If this occurs, foreign investor outflow could reach $7.8 billion, Goldman Sachs calculated. Investor panic saw shares drop 16.7% on the IDX Composite index in a two-day rout, with a subsequent small recovery. The index continues to be volatile into this week.
Stock fraud has long been an open secret in Indonesia. In a December 2024 speech President Prabowo Subianto warned that retail traders are faced with losing out to bandar besar, a slang term for market manipulators.
· China outbound investment in 2025 hit highest level since 2018
Chinese investment overseas jumped 18% in 2025, driven by energy and basic materials, as the world’s second-largest economy accelerated a shift away from Western nations and towards Africa and Middle East.
· Balance of Power
Xi Jinping just served Donald Trump a strategic message with no ambiguity: China is closely watching US weapons sales to Taiwan.
During a call yesterday that the US president hailed as “excellent,” China’s leader told Trump that he must “handle the issue of arms sales to Taiwan with prudence,” according to a Chinese readout.
That was unusually specific language for Xi, who normally sticks to broad statements regarding the self-ruled democracy Beijing views as its own.
The warning comes less than two months after US officials signed off on an $11 billion arms bundle for the global chip hub, and ahead of Trump’s planned trip to China in April.
Another four US weapons packages are in the pipeline, a senior Taiwanese defence official said last month, without specifying the value of those deals or what they’d cover.
It’s unclear if Taipei can even pay for more US weapons: Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s special military budget has now been blocked 10 times by the opposition, which is pushing a smaller spending plan.
While Beijing is clearly concerned about US efforts to arm Taiwan, Xi stopped short of demanding Trump cease those sales altogether, suggesting a degree of measure in his dealings with the world’s No. 1 economy.
There are plenty of other points of friction, including the Trump administration’s push to squeeze China out from Central and South America.
On Taiwan, though, the US president’s coveted trip to China — and perhaps even his one-year trade truce with Xi — could be blown up if Beijing doesn’t feel Washington is taking its warnings seriously.
Wu Xinbo, director at Fudan University’s Center for American
Studies in Shanghai, notes that Beijing’s readout of their call made no mention of Trump’s planned visit to China. That suggests two months or so out, it’s still not a certainty.
· India’s $166m bid to modernize critical
mineral recycling takes shape
Sector reliant on informal scrap markets is being overhauled to reduce reliance on China.
Companies are stepping up their investments in critical mineral recycling as they await the outcome of a 15 billion rupees ($166 million) critical mineral recycling program that the Indian Government hopes will reduce the country’s reliance on imports of key inputs for green technologies.
Silver plunged as much as 17% as fragile sentiment and thin liquidity follow a historic rout. Gold slid as much as 3.5%, though analysts expect support from longer-term fundamentals. Chinese billionaire trader Bian Ximing, who made almost $3 billion from gold, has built the largest bet against silver on the Shanghai Futures Exchange.
Just as speculation is unwinding in precious metals, a global rout in technology stocks snowballed into Asia. An AI-driven rout has erased hundreds of billions from stocks and credit, hammering software firms as investors realize AI is starting to disrupt entrenched business models.
- UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s Labour Party is turning against him over his ties to Peter Mandelson. Labour MPs describe a febrile, mutinous mood within the party, with some privately questioning how long he can survive as PM despite rivals holding back from a leadership challenge. Meanwhile, UK lawmakers voted to force disclosure of documents on appointment of the longtime associate of Jeffrey Epstein as US ambassador.
- US President Donald Trump warned Iran to be “very worried” as American military forces amass in the region. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said nuclear talks with the US were scheduled for tomorrow morning in Muscat. Oil fell for the first time in three days after Iran confirmed negotiations.
· Flag state spat exposes growing government oversight gaps
Türkiye and Comoros spat exposes lack of flag state oversight in verifying valid insurance.
Flag state obligations are largely unenforced by several administrations.
New rules needed to verify the adequacy of insurance policies offered by ships arriving at ports
An uninsured ship casualty has prompted Türkiye to call for an international white list for insurers, but the verification of flag state responsibilities runs to the heart of a much bigger problem with substandard shipping.
· Norden bidding to flatten out dry bulk operator swings
Danish dry bulk and product tanker operator posted profit down 25% in 2025. Switches between ‘asset-light and asset-heavy’ keep Norden profitable.
Building a more dependable dry operator business rather than swinging between huge profits and losses key, chief executive Rindbo says.
Vessel sales made up a large portion of the company’s profit, as its large dry operator segment continued to struggle.
· India Launches Bharat Container Shipping Line in Bid to Build Global Maritime Muscle
India has formally launched the Bharat Container Shipping Line (BCSL), a new joint venture aimed at carving out a national presence in global container shipping and reducing the country’s heavy reliance on foreign carriers.
The initiative brings together a mix of state-owned shipping, rail, port, and finance entities, with a memorandum of understanding signed by The Shipping Corporation of India (SCI), Container Corporation of India (CONCOR), Jawaharlal Nehru Port Authority (JNPA), V.O. Chidambaranar Port Authority, Chennai Port Authority, and Sagarmala Finance Corporation. Senior government officials attended the signing, underscoring the political weight behind the project.
India’s Ministry of Ports, Shipping and Waterways described the launch as a step toward improving cargo security, boosting containerisation, and expanding the footprint of Indian-flagged vessels. The longer-term ambition is bold: to grow BCSL into one of the world’s top 10 container lines by 2047.
SCI called the agreement a “historic moment for Indian shipping,” framing it as part of the government’s broader push to build a globally competitive domestic maritime ecosystem under the banner of economic self-reliance.
At the ceremony, Railways Minister Ashwini Vaishnaw said a “decades-old dream” was being realized, pointing to a 10,000 crore (US$1.1 billion) budget allocation for container manufacturing intended to support a domestic container supply chain.
Maritime Strategy Context
BCSL’s launch fits into a much wider maritime strategy. Earlier this year, India approved $5.4 billion in shipbuilding support, including direct subsidies and yard infrastructure funding.
Despite those ambitions, India currently ranks around 20th globally in shipbuilding, accounting for just 0.06% of world output. Officials have set targets to reach the global top 10 by 2030 and the top five by 2047.
The economic case is clear. India spends an estimated $70–75 billion each year on foreign shipping services, while only about 7% of Indian-owned vessels are built at home. Officials have likened the container push to a “Maruti moment” for shipping— invoking the transformation of India’s auto industry from import dependence to domestic production in the 1980s.
Trade Deal Timing
Timing also plays a role. New trade agreements with the European Union and the United States are expected to drive a sharp rise in container volumes. The India–EU deal finalized in January removes or cuts tariffs on the vast majority of traded goods, while a separate US–India agreement could significantly lower tariffs in exchange for large-scale energy and commodity purchases.
Analysts say these deals could support new direct deep-sea services linking India with Europe and North America, reducing reliance on East Asian transshipment hubs and strengthening India’s position as an alternative manufacturing base to China.
For the container shipping industry, BCSL represents another state-backed entrant in an already crowded market. With political backing and significant infrastructure spending behind it, India is signalling that container shipping is now viewed as a strategic industry that the country is no longer willing to outsource.
· MOL Chemical Tankers readies leadership change
MOL Chemical Tankers has announced a change at the top, with chief executive Akira Sasa set to retire at the end of March.
Sasa, who took over as president and CEO in April 2022, joined the Singapore-based chemical tanker operator as a director in 2020 and has led the business through a period of fleet expansion and investment in alternative fuels.
He will be succeeded by Tomoaki Ichida, currently a managing executive officer at parent company Mitsui OSK Lines (MOL). Ichida has been responsible for MOL’s Americas business since April 2023 and also serves as chief executive of MOL SWITCH, the group’s climate-tech investment arm. He is a board member of the Ammonia Energy Association.
The management change will take effect on April 1, 2026.
MOL Chemical Tankers is the chemical tanker arm of MOL, Japan’s largest shipowner by dwt, and operates one of the world’s biggest chemical tanker fleets, with more than 100 vessels in service.
The company has been steadily adding lower-emission tonnage to its portfolio, following the earlier introduction of LNG dual-fuel and MGO-fuelled ships. Most recently, it moved into ammonia with a series of long-term charters from CMB.TECH. Last year, MOL Chemical Tankers agreed charter contracts with Antwerp-based CMB.TECH for six 26,000 dwt newbuilding chemical tankers, including four ammonia dual-fuel-ready vessels and two ammonia dual-fuel-fitted ships. The vessels will be built at China Merchants Jinling Shipyard (Yangzhou) Dingheng and are due for delivery between 2028 and 2029.
Once delivered, the ships are expected to become the world’s first ammonia-fuelled chemical tankers.
· Chemical tanker arrested as charter to Singapore-based operator goes sour
BainBridge Navigation claims the vessel failed to perform as expected Singapore-based BainBridge Navigation has arrested a chemical tanker in India’s Deendayal Port. The bulker and tanker operator’s dispute with the owner of the 13,000-dwt chemical tanker Oceanic Dream (built 2008) is based on allegations that the ship has failed to perform satisfactorily during the period it had been on time charter, leading to an early termination.
· Bad weather blamed as Indonesian tanker capsizes and sinks
Strong winds and high waves overwhelmed the vessel during coastal passage, authorities say.
Bad weather had been blamed for the sinking of a product tanker in shallow waters off Sorong in Indonesia on 29 January, local port authorities said.
The Indonesian-owned 3,000-dwt clean tanker Nikko (built 1994) was sailing from Jayapura to Tarjun carrying crude palm oil when the incident occurred near Dua Island, according to Indonesian international radio broadcaster Voice of Indonesia (VOI).
· Itochu bulker arm extends sale drive in fresh deal with familiar Greek buyer
| Imecs Co, the shipping arm of major Japanese trading house Itochu Corp, has sold yet another bulker in a deal that marks its 12th asset divestment in the S&P market over the past three years. |
Japanese trading conglomerate offloads legacy bulkers as it focuses on forward-looking projects
Equinor Sees Johan Sverdrup Oil Production Declining Over 10% in 2026.
Equinor ASA expects oil output from its Johan Sverdrup oil field, the largest source of European supply growth in the last decade, to fall this year.
Production will fall by between 10% and 20%, Chief Executive Officer Anders Opedal said at a media briefing on Wednesday. Exports from the field averaged 712,000 barrels a day last year, according to loading programs compiled.
“We’ve been able to postpone the decline for a long time,” the executive said. “This year we anticipate a decline of more than 10%, but well below 20%.”
Shares of Equinor, which also on Wednesday announced lower share buyback, reversed earlier gains in Oslo. Aker BP ASA, which owns a 32% share of the field, saw shares fall as much as 3.7%.
· Stena Imperative Incident Underscores
Rising Security Risk in the Strait of Hormuz
The Stena Imperative encounter is a textbook example of maritime brinkmanship in the world’s most sensitive chokepoint.
The confrontation involving the US-flagged tanker Stena Imperative in the Strait of Hormuz this week has become one of the clearest illustrations yet of how quickly routine commercial transits through the world’s most sensitive maritime choke point can escalate into strategic flashpoints, even when no shots are fired and no vessel is seized.
According to verified reporting from maritime security sources, US officials and international media, the incident unfolded when several fast-moving Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps craft approached the tanker as it transited international waters close to the traffic separation scheme north of Oman. The small boats reportedly hailed the vessel over VHF radio and ordered it to slow or prepare to be boarded. Rather than comply, the tanker maintained course and increased speed while reporting the approach through established security channels.
Within a short period, a US Navy destroyer operating in the region moved to the tanker’s vicinity and provided an armed escort, supported by air assets. US Central Command later confirmed that Iranian vessels and an unmanned aerial vehicle had closed the tanker at speed and that US forces intervened to deter what was described as a credible threat of seizure. The situation de-escalated without physical contact, damage, or injury, and the tanker continued its voyage.
For maritime security analysts, the episode was notable not only for the presence of multiple Iranian surface units but also for the involvement of an aerial drone, a combination that underscores the increasingly multi-domain nature of encounters in the Strait. As Charlie Brown, senior advisor at UANI observed, the incident “underscores how Tehran’s coercive tactics are now once again extending into international waters,” with Iranian forces willing to press up against the boundaries of accepted behaviour well beyond their territorial seas.
In isolation, such an encounter might have been dismissed as another example of the maritime brinkmanship that has characterised the Strait of Hormuz for more than a decade. US- flagged and US-associated vessels have long been subjected to challenges, shadowing and radio demands by Iranian units operating just short of the threshold that would trigger a direct military response. What makes this incident more consequential is its timing, its target, and its proximity to other military events unfolding in the same 24-hour period.
Stena Imperative is not merely another commercial tanker transiting the Gulf. It forms part of the United States Maritime Administration’s Tanker Security Program, a fleet designed to ensure assured access to tanker capacity for US defence and logistics needs in times of crisis. That status gives the vessel symbolic and strategic weight, making it an attractive focus for signalling by Iranian forces seeking to demonstrate reach and resolve without provoking open conflict. In Brown’s assessment, the encounter reflects a broader pattern in which Iran is “willing to challenge freedom of navigation and U.S. force posture simultaneously, risking miscalculation in a strategically vital maritime chokepoint.”
The episode also took place against a backdrop of heightened military tension in the region. On the same day, US forces confirmed the shoot-down of an Iranian drone that had approached a US aircraft carrier operating nearby. While the drone incident and the tanker encounter were not officially linked, their coincidence underscored how crowded and volatile the operating environment has become.
The arrival of the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group, deployed amid concerns over Iran’s internal repression and regional destabilisation, has further sharpened the sense that multiple strands of confrontation are converging at sea.
For ship operators and insurers, one of the most contentious aspects of the Stena Imperative episode has been the perception that the vessel was not under close naval escort at the time of the initial approach, despite other commercial ships reportedly receiving heightened protection during recent periods of tension. Verified reporting makes clear that a US warship did intervene rapidly and provided escort and protection once the situation developed. What remains less transparent, and is likely to remain so, is whether a dedicated pre-planned escort had been assigned prior to the transit or whether the response followed established on-call protection protocols that rely on naval forces operating nearby rather than permanently attached to individual vessels.
This distinction matters because it highlights the balance naval planners continue to strike between deterrence and resource management. The Strait of Hormuz sees dozens of large merchant ships pass through each day. Permanent close escort for every US-linked vessel would be operationally unsustainable and politically escalatory. Instead, the prevailing model has relied on rapid response, visible presence and the clear signalling that any attempt at seizure will be met with force. However, “as usual, it is shipping and seafarers that are on the front lines of this dangerous situation that they can neither control nor easily avoid.”
Recent history reinforces this point. In July 2023, Iranian forces attempted to seize multiple tankers in the Gulf of Oman, including the Richmond Voyager, only to be deterred by the rapid arrival of US naval assets. That episode marked the most serious series of attempted interdictions in several years and prompted renewed warnings from maritime security organisations about the risk of escalation. The re-emergence of similar patterns now, even without shots fired, will not be lost on bridge teams transiting the region.
Adding further complexity is the broader geopolitical signalling underway beyond the Strait itself. Iran, Russia and China are preparing for another round of joint naval exercises in the northern Indian Ocean, while separate multinational drills involving the same actors are taking place further afield.
Although these exercises are not centred on the Strait of Hormuz, their timing contributes to an atmosphere in which maritime encounters are more likely to be interpreted through a strategic lens rather than as isolated tactical events.
For the shipping industry, the immediate practical implications are clear. There has been no closure of the Strait, no sustained disruption to traffic flows, and no indication that Iran is seeking a broader confrontation at sea.
Energy markets reacted cautiously rather than sharply, reflecting the assessment that this was a controlled encounter rather than the start of a campaign. Nevertheless, risk premiums are likely to remain elevated, and underwriters will continue to scrutinise voyage planning, security reporting and compliance with naval coordination procedures.
Yet the deeper concern lies in the cumulative effect of such incidents. As Brown pointedly observed, “illicit dark fleet tankers continue to export Iranian oil to buyers in China on a daily basis, despite US sanctions, with near total impunity, on the very same sea lanes that Iran challenges.” The contrast between aggressive enforcement against selected vessels and tolerance of sanctioned trade elsewhere underscores the political complexity facing those tasked with keeping the Strait open.
The Stena Imperative episode ultimately ended as many similar encounters have ended in recent years: with naval forces asserting control, commercial shipping proceeding, and all parties stepping back from the brink. It nonetheless serves as a reminder that stability in the Strait of Hormuz is being maintained not by the absence of confrontation, but by constant, careful management of it. As regional tensions persist and military activity intensifies, the risk facing merchant shipping is less about dramatic seizures than about the possibility that one day, a familiar script will not play out as expected.
· Shipping Firms Face Tough 2026 as Reopening of Red Sea Looms
Global container liners are bracing for lower profits in 2026 as the potential reopening of the Red Sea shipping route weighs on freight rates, exacerbating oversupply issues and aggravating trade pains.
Denmark’s A.P. Moller-Maersk A/S, Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd AG, Japan’s Nippon Yusen KK and Chinese liners Orient Overseas International Ltd. and Cosco Shipping Holdings Co. are all expected to report weaker earnings in 2026 after an already difficult 2025 marked by tariff turmoil.
A resumption of traffic through the Red Sea would exacerbate existing “structural overcapacity issues,” analysts at Bank of America said.
Supply continues to expand at a record pace, with a projected 36% surge in new vessel capacity from 2023 to 2027, according to Bloomberg Intelligence. On the flip side, demand for container shipping is expected to contract 1.1% in 2026, assuming container liners make a complete return to the Red Sea.
Global liner rates are on a downward trajectory, falling 4.7% to $2,107 per 40-foot container in the week ended Jan. 29, according to the Drewry World Container Index.
Though not guaranteed, a restart of Red Sea shipping is becoming a more likely prospect now that Maersk has made two successful passages for the first time since Yemen-based Houthis began attacking vessels in 2023.
HSBC analyst Parash Jain previously expected that Red Sea disruptions lasting until at least mid-2026 would mean a 9% to 16% drop in freight rates this year. Now, with Maersk’s return to the Red Sea hinting at a faster-than-expected transition to normalcy, HSBC said there could be a further 10% decline that would push Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd into losses.
A rapid resumption of traffic may at first cause port congestion in Europe, which would support rates, according to Jain. A reopening as Western economies look to restock inventory in the first half of 2026 may also initially help rates, Citi analysts said.
Rates would then stabilize lower, with Maersk set to issue “soft” 2026 profit guidance and cut its share buybacks by 50%, according to BofA. The Danish shipper is expected to post its first annual loss since 2017 this year, consensus shows.
Major carriers are treading with caution for now, hesitant to overhaul their networks when a sudden shift in Houthi activity may force a total reversal overnight, according to Drewry.
“Cargo owners are also wary of putting valuable goods at risk and are now well used to longer transits, while ports will not be able to cope with a sudden arrival of ships en-masse,” they said.
While Maersk has recently started voyages, CMA CGM SA reversed its decision to use the same route after having previously returned three services through the waterway. “That highlights how volatile and unpredictable the situation in the region is,” BI’s Loh said.
Peers in Asia face similar challenges. A complete reopening of the Red Sea route will be “the wild card” to watch in Asian shipping this year — more so than tariffs given the US-China trade truce and ongoing decoupling of the two economies.
For Japanese liners like Nippon Yusen, profitability pressure in the container business will mainly come from oversupply and tariff uncertainty, Jefferies analyst Carlos Furuya wrote in a note. Third quarter operating income missed estimates, with BI expecting its container shipping business to further deteriorate on lower freight rates and weaker demand.
Privately owned Ocean Network Express — a container shipper jointly owned by Nippon Yusen, Mitsui OSK Lines Ltd. and Kawasaki Kisen Kaisha Ltd. — reported a net loss of $88 million in its fiscal third quarter last week, citing the increase in new ships and slow cargo movement on routes from Asia to both North America and Europe. It expects vessels will continue to route via the Cape of Good Hope, leading to a “modest uptick” in fourth-quarter rates.
Asian shipping carriers may be better positioned than their European peers on margins, as they benefit from stronger regional demand and more resilient spot rates compared with global averages, according to Drewry’s.
“Intra-Asia trade benefits from greater operational stability, as it is less exposed to geopolitical disruptions such as tariffs and security risks in the Red Sea, which continue to affect major global trade lanes like Transpacific and Asia–Europe,” they said.
· Trump Administration Sets March Date for 80-Million-Acre ‘Big Beautiful’ Gulf Lease Sale
The Bureau of Ocean Energy Management (BOEM) plans to auction roughly 80.4 million acres of federal waters in the Gulf of America next month, advancing the Trump administration’s accelerated offshore oil and gas program.
“Lease Sale BBG2 is a key step in advancing BOEM’s offshore oil and gas program in the Gulf of America,” said Acting Director Matt Giacona, pointing to what the agency views as sustained industry interest following the inaugural BBG1 sale.
The proposed offering includes about 15,066 unleased blocks located between 3 and 231 miles offshore, spanning water depths from just 9 feet to more than 11,100 feet. Certain areas are excluded, including blocks covered by a September 2020 presidential withdrawal, portions of the Flower Garden Banks National Marine Sanctuary, and any tract that received a bid in the BBG1 sale.
The announcement comes amid softer market conditions for offshore leasing. The first BBG1 sale generated $279.4 million in high bids for 181 blocks, with 30 companies submitting 219 bids totalling $371.9 million. While major operators including BP, Chevron, and Shell participated, the results fell short of the December 2023 Gulf lease sale which drew 352 bids worth $441.9 million across 311 tracts.
Weaker bidding coincided with lower oil prices, with WTI trading around $58.50—well below late-2023 levels. WTI is currently trading at around $63 per barrel. To bolster participation, BOEM set royalty rates at 12.5 percent for both shallow and deepwater leases, the lowest deepwater rate offered since 2007.
Despite those headwinds, the sale directly supports Executive
Order 14154, “Unleashing American Energy,” signed by Donald Trump, which directs federal agencies to accelerate offshore energy development.
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum has described the early lease results as evidence that the administration’s energy strategy is gaining traction, citing job creation, investment, and energy security as core objectives.
The Gulf of America’s Outer Continental Shelf spans roughly 160 million acres and is estimated to hold nearly 30 billion barrels of undiscovered, technically recoverable oil and more than 54 trillion cubic feet of natural gas. In fiscal year 2024 alone, the region generated $6.5 billion in federal royalties, along with $372.5 million in bonus bids and $122.8 million in rental revenue.
The One Big Beautiful Bill Act mandates 30 Gulf lease sales and six Cook Inlet sales in Alaska over the coming decades, locking in what BOEM officials describe as a long- term offshore development pipeline.
Lease Sale Big Beautiful Gulf 2 (BBG2) will be held on March 11, 2026, with live bid reading beginning at 9 a.m. Central Time. The sale will be livestreamed, and BOEM is set to publish the Final Notice of Sale in the Federal Register on February 5, meeting the required 30-day notice period.
Additional details on BBG2, including maps and the Final Notice of Sale package, are available through BOEM.
· Shipowners, ship operators, ship managers, ship masters, designers, shipbuilders and manufacturers.
Norway has amended its Environmental Safety Regulations, which means mandatory zero emission operating requirements are now in force for all passenger ships entering Norway’s World Heritage fjords (Geirangerfjord and Nærøyfjord). Responsibility for compliance rests with the shipping company.
The following requirements apply regardless of whether ships operate entirely within the fjords or only transit them:
- Since 1 January 2026, all passenger ships below 10,000 GT must operate on energy sources that produce no direct carbon dioxide (CO₂) or methane (CH₄) emissions while within the World Heritage fjords.
- From 1 January 2032, the same requirement will extend to ships of 10,000 GT and above
- Shore power systems: shipping companies must also ensure that their ships connect to shore power systems whenever compatible facilities are available to minimise emissions when berthed in fjord ports.
Compliant energy solutions
The regulation is technology neutral, allowing shipowners flexibility in selecting compliant energy solutions.
- Zero emission energy sources may include battery electric systems, green hydrogen, green ammonia, or other fuels meeting the regulatory definition
- Limited quantities of traditional “pilot fuels” may still be used where necessary to ignite alternative fuels, such as diesel ignition for ammonia combustion engines.
- Where zero emission fuels generate N₂O, ships must fit and operate best available technology to mitigate these emissions.
Zero-emission fuel qualification
Additionally, there are requirements for fuel sustainability and certification, aligned to FuelEU Maritime and the EU Renewable Energy Directive (RED). These requirements must be achieved to qualify as a zero-emission fuel. These include:
Renewable fuels of non-biological origin
- These must achieve 70% or greater greenhouse gas reduction, measured under EU methodologies.
- Verification that electricity used in production meets renewable criteria.
Use of biogas
Biogas is permitted as an alternative to full zero emission solutions, including beyond 2032, as long as:
- It achieves 50% to 65% GHG reduction depending on production date.
- It is not produced from food or feed crops.
- It is bunkered within the final month prior to entering the fjords.
- The quantity bunkered matches the expected energy demand during the fjord voyage.
- It is kept separate from fossil fuels until bunkering.
Biogas certification linked to gas grid mass balance systems will not be accepted. The use of liquid biofuels is not permitted.
Fuel types such as blue hydrogen must be certified under FuelEU Maritime and demonstrate required GHG reductions.
Documentation and enforcement
Ships must carry onboard documentation demonstrating:
- Compliance with sustainability and GHG reduction criteria.
- Proper certification of fuels in accordance with EU recognised voluntary or national schemes.
- Supporting bunker delivery notes and additional information specified under FuelEU Maritime.
Failure to comply
Non-compliance may result in administrative measures or violation fines under the Ship Safety and Security Act.
No requirement for verification
The regulation does not require verification of actual ship emissions. Instead, compliance is presumed if the ship uses an approved energy source that meets the zero-emission definition and, where relevant, uses best available technology to reduce nitrous oxide (N₂O). The regulation focuses on fuel properties, not measured output.
Possible temporary exemptions
Temporary exemptions may be granted by the Norwegian Maritime Authority (NMA) for individual passenger ships of less than 10,000 GT, but only if all the following conditions are met:
- Operational history: The ship must have operated in the World Heritage fjords in 2024 and in every year thereafter up to the date of the application.
- Compliance with all other rules: The ship must meet all other operational requirements applicable to the World Heritage fjords.
- Lack of shore-power access: The company must demonstrate that it cannot meet the zero-emission requirement solely because shore power is not available to the ship.
- Plan to secure shore-power access: The company must present a credible plan for obtaining access to shore power.
If granted, the exemption may be valid for up to two years at a time but cannot be extended beyond 31 December 2029.
· Lower freight rates drag Maersk earnings despite box volume growth
Focus on cost discipline will see 1,000 jobs cut as Maersk seeks $180m cost savings.
Maersk reported sharply lower profitability in 2025 as persistent erosion in global freight rates weighed heavily on its core Ocean business.
Group revenue fell $1.5bn year on year to $54bn, with the ocean division being the main drag, while logistics & services delivered modest growth and the terminals division posted record financial results.
Container volumes rose 4.9% during the year, but a 17% decline in freight rates significantly reduced earnings.
· Shipping stocks offer shelter amid the storm
AI disruption risk is taking centre stage on Wall Street; software companies are the latest flashpoint. Being in a capital-intensive, asset-heavy business is a plus in times like these.
“We are told that we live in an increasingly dematerialised world, where ever more value lies in intangible items, [but] the physical world continues to underpin everything else,” wrote author Ed Conway in his book, “Material World”.
All of the intangibles rely on raw materials for physical infrastructure and energy — demand for raw materials is rising, not falling — and much of the money earned from selling intangibles is used to buy goods.
No matter what happens with AI, raw materials, components and finished goods will still need to move around the globe, and as the geopolitical order splinters, cargoes will move in increasingly inefficient ways. It’s no surprise that shipping stocks are having a moment.
But the current market for shipping stocks does not have the same heady feel as in the 2000s. Investors are far less naive about the highly cyclical nature of shipping than they used to be.
The majority of shipping’s “long only” investors today are the company founders and insiders; the majority of non-insider investors are fair-weather friends.
The resurgence of shipping share prices in 2025 and early 2026 comes at a time when the number of public shipping companies is falling due to take-private transactions. There hasn’t been a US shipping IPO since Zim in January 2021, a half-decade ago. Zim could also soon be taken private.
There were a lot of grand plans for shipping equities discussed at ship finance conferences in decades past: talk of mega- shipping companies, shipping divisions within giant conglomerates, entrenched long-only money, through-cycle stability — shipping as a “blue chip” category in US public markets.
This never came to pass and probably never will, and that’s fine. There’s no shortage of private investment. Just ask Gianluigi Aponte.
There’s nothing wrong with being a niche Wall Street segment, and there are plenty of trading profits to be had by hedge funds and retail traders during upcycles, like the one crude tankers are enjoying now.
For today’s stock pickers, there’s also an added appeal: shipping offers a shelter amid the technological and geopolitical storm.
Shipping is a vital cog in the “Material World” described by Conway, who maintained: “Far from being independent from the physical world around us, we have never been more reliant upon it.”
China’s Baowu Resources, the world’s largest steelmaker, has tightened its grip on one of the biggest untapped high‑grade iron-ore deposits by taking control of the operator of Guinea’s Simandou Blocks 1 and 2 after raising its stake in the Winning Consortium Simandou to 51% from 49%, the company said.
ECB remains stable
When the European Central Bank announces its interest rate decision early this afternoon, there will likely be no surprises . The deposit rate will remain at 2% today, Thursday—and probably for the foreseeable future. That’s the view of economists surveyed by Bloomberg, and that’s the market’s view.
However, this by no means implies that things will be boring later when President Christine Lagarde addresses the press. Quite the contrary. A great deal has happened since the last meeting of the ECB Governing Council in December.
Across the Atlantic, US President Donald Trump attacked the Federal Reserve, ousted the Venezuelan president, and openly threatened new tariffs should the Europeans stand in the way of his annexation plans for Greenland. The result: widespread uncertainty and a weaker dollar, which briefly pushed the euro to its highest level since 2021.
For the eurozone economy, such a trend bodes ill. Uncertainty can hinder private investment and consumer spending. A strong euro means that exports become more expensive and German goods lose competitiveness on the international market. Imports become cheaper and dampen inflation, which, according to the latest figures, stood at just 1.7% in the eurozone, significantly below the ECB’s 2% target.
But there is also positive news. The eurozone economy grew more strongly than expected at the end of last year, and the planned fiscal spending on infrastructure and defence is slowly taking effect—especially in Germany. There, new orders in the manufacturing sector recently recorded their highest growth rate in two years, at 7.8%, marking the fourth consecutive increase.
Lagarde will address all these issues today. EU reforms, the ongoing war in Ukraine, changes in the labour market due to artificial intelligence, the energy transition, and demographics are also keeping central bankers busy. Interest rates may remain constant, but the economic challenges will not.
· EU Buys 93 Percent of Yamal LNG As Imports Surge Ahead of 2027 Russian Ban
European buyers are aggressively importing liquefied natural gas from Russia’s Arctic Yamal LNG project as the continent prepares for a full EU ban on Russian LNG from January 2027, new figures compiled by advocacy group urgewald from Kpler data show.
According to the report, EU buyers purchased 92.6% of Yamal LNG production in January 2026, totaling 1.69 million tonnes, an 8% increase over January 2025. A total of 23 out of 25 shipments were delivered to European ports, underscoring the continent’s continued reliance on Russian Arctic gas despite sanctions and political pressure.
Belgium’s Zeebrugge terminal led imports with six cargoes, with France’s Montoir and Dunkerque terminals also receiving six and five shipments respectively.
Additional cargoes went to the Gate terminal in Rotterdam and three Spanish ports. On average, a Russian LNG tanker called at an EU terminal every 32 hours, highlighting the relentless pace of deliveries.
The report highlights the critical role of European shipping providers in sustaining Yamal LNG exports. Seapeak and Dynagas accounted for 20 of the 25 January shipments, with their Arc7 ice-class LNG carriers enabling year-round operations in the harsh Arctic environment. Without these European-operated vessels, Russian LNG exports from Yamal LNG would effectively be shut down for six months of the year.
Despite this leverage, the EU has taken only limited action, with the full LNG import ban more than 11 months away.
“Sanctioning and restricting these vessels would directly cut off Putin’s Arctic LNG revenues and close one of the most important remaining energy loopholes funding the Kremlin’s war,” said Sebastian Rötters, sanctions campaigner at urgewald.
The figures also illustrate the limits of the EU transshipment ban, which took effect in March 2025. Intended to hinder Russian LNG re-exports to Asia by stopping cargoes from being reloaded in EU ports, the policy has instead kept more shipments within the EU. Cargoes that might have previously been re-exported are now consumed domestically, effectively increasing Yamal LNG deliveries to the continent.
In 2025, the EU spent €7.2 billion ($7.7 billion) on Russian LNG, with €600–700 million flowing to Moscow every month. In total the continent received more than 200 LNG shipments from Russia in 2025.
By contrast, Arctic LNG 2, also in Russia’s Arctic but sanctioned, is operating far below capacity. With only two ice- class LNG carriers, LNG must be re-routed via floating storage or ship-to-ship operations to reach China, raising costs and slowing deliveries.
Yamal LNG, however, continues to operate largely unimpeded, with European policymakers failing to take advantage of the project’s unique dependence on European shipping infrastructure, services, and markets.
“Europe has a clear opportunity to act together to cut these revenues,” Rötters said. “But until then, Yamal LNG remains a steady stream of cash for Russia, despite four years of sanctions.”
· Russia says it regrets end of landmark nuclear treaty with US
MOSCOW, Feb 5 (Reuters) – Russia said on Thursday it regretted the expiry of its last remaining nuclear arms treaty with the United States but would act responsibly after the removal of constraints on deployment of the world’s deadliest weapons.
The New START treaty, which set limits on each side’s missiles, launchers and strategic warheads, was the last in a series of nuclear agreements dating back more than half a century to the Cold War.
Security experts say its expiry will make it harder for the world’s biggest nuclear powers to accurately gauge each other’s intentions, raising the risk of misunderstandings. Some fear a new arms race, with China embarked on a nuclear build-up.
Russian President Vladimir Putin had proposed that Moscow and Washington agree to adhere to the treaty’s main provisions for another year.
U.S. President Donald Trump did formally respond but has said he wants a better deal, bringing in China.
Beijing has declined negotiations with Moscow and Washington as it has a fraction of their warhead numbers – an estimated 600, compared to around 4,000 each for Russia and the U.S. “What happens next depends on how events unfold,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
“In any case, the Russian Federation will maintain its responsible and attentive approach to the issue of strategic stability in the field of nuclear weapons and, of course, as always, will be guided first and foremost by its national interests.”
The White House said this week that Trump would decide the way forward on nuclear arms control, which he would “clarify on his own timeline”.
CONFUSION OVER EXACT TIMING
There was confusion over the exact timing of the expiry, with neither the U.S. State Department nor Russia’s Foreign Ministry giving a precise time. Peskov said it would be at the end of Thursday.
Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, who signed the treaty with then U.S. President Barack Obama in 2010, said on Wednesday that New START and its predecessors were now “all in the past”.
· US nuclear weapons deal with Russia ending is nightmare – and it comes at worst time’
“Clearly today’s expiring of the agreement marks a grave danger that must be dealt with at pace and it cannot be parked as some bit of administration that can wait”.
The ending of the arms treaty governing nuclear arms between the US and Russia removes one more layer of protection for the world against atomic weapons use. It probably could not come at a worse time, with tensions between Russia and NATO almost piano-wire tight and the US increasingly ambivalent towards the alliance.
This was the Treaty of Measures for the Further reduction and Limitation of Strategic Arms – or New START – agreements that was signed by both sides back in the year 2010. President Putin has already said he would sign it as an extension for a year but US President Trump has kicked it down the road, to be addressed in the future.
· U.S. Navy’s Next Supercarrier Completes First Sea Trials, Clearing Major Ford-Class Hurdle
The future USS John F. Kennedy completed its first Builder’s
Sea Trials on Wednesday, marking a major milestone for the U.S. Navy’s second Gerald R. Ford-class aircraft carrier as the ship moves closer to fleet delivery.
The initial at-sea tests brought together sailors from the ship’s pre-commissioning unit, shipbuilders from Newport News Shipbuilding, a division of Huntington Ingalls Industries, and personnel from multiple Navy commands. The trials focused on evaluating key systems and technologies during the ship’s first underway period.
“Seeing this Navy-industry team take CVN 79 to sea for the first time was nothing short of thrilling,” said Rear Adm. Casey Moton, program executive officer for aircraft carriers. He credited the effort of workers across the U.S. maritime industrial base for moving the carrier one step closer to delivery.
Before departing the shipyard, Kennedy completed a five-day “fast cruise,” a pier-side evolution designed to simulate underway operations and transition the crew into an operational mindset.
“There are millions of fingerprints contributing to this successful sea trial,” said Capt. Doug Langenberg, commanding officer of the Pre-Commissioning Unit John F. Kennedy. “This moment reflects years of shared effort between our shipbuilders and the crew bringing the ship to life.”
Newport News Shipbuilding Vice President Derek Murphy described the trials as a key validation of the yard’s work. “Taking Kennedy to sea is a testament to the grit and determination of the world’s finest shipbuilders,” he said, adding that CVN 79 represents a critical national security asset.
As the second carrier in the Ford class, Kennedy incorporates design changes aimed at improving survivability, boosting combat capability, and reducing total ownership costs over a projected 50-year service life. Enhancements include a new nuclear power plant, increased electrical generation capacity, improved efficiency, and reduced crew requirements.
With Builder’s Trials complete, work will now resume at the shipyard to address any issues identified during testing. The next major milestone will be Acceptance Trials, though the schedule remains under review.
“We’re making steady progress toward completing the ship with all required capability,” said Capt. Mark Johnson, program manager for Ford-class new construction. “Our focus remains delivering the Navy’s next aircraft carrier on the fastest possible path to combat readiness.”
The USS John F. Kennedy (CVN 79) is expected to be delivered to the U.S. Navy in 2027.
· Container Rates Slide for Fourth Week as Pre-Lunar New Year Surge Fizzles
Global container shipping rates fell for a fourth straight week, sliding 7% to $1,959 per 40-foot container as carriers face unexpectedly soft demand ahead of the Lunar New Year— normally one of the strongest shipping periods of the year.
The continued decline marks a clear break from seasonal norms. According to the Drewry World Container Index, spot rates fell across every major trade lane despite Chinese factory shutdowns approaching. Rates from Shanghai to Los Angeles dropped 8% to $2,239, while Shanghai–New York slipped 5% to $2,819.
“This downward trend highlights a significant shift in the market, as the traditional pre-Lunar New Year cargo rush is failing to materialise in 2026”.
Carriers have responded by pulling capacity at an unusually aggressive pace. Over the next three weeks, operators have canceled 18, 27, and 28 sailings on transpacific routes—well above typical seasonal levels.
Asia-Europe trades are showing similar weakness. Rates from Shanghai to Rotterdam fell 9% to $2,164, while Shanghai– Genoa dropped 7% to $3,048. Carriers have scheduled 9, 16, and 9 blank sailings on those routes over the same period as they brace for factory closures and rising market volatility.
The latest slide follows an already weak prior week, when the index stood at $2,107 per 40-foot container after three consecutive weeks of declines driven by softening demand and uncertainty over Suez Canal transits.
Market direction is now being shaped by competing forces. Diversions around the Cape of Good Hope continue to absorb roughly 2 million TEU of capacity—about 8% of the global container fleet—but the gradual return of some services to the Suez Canal is re-introducing capacity and clouding rate forecasts.
Drewry analyst said the timing and scale of any broader return to Suez will be a key swing factor in 2026. “The return to the Suez Canal is one of this year’s key variables for capacity, freight rates, and transit times,” he said, noting that carriers are weighing security risks, insurance costs, competitor behaviour, and port congestion.
That cautious reopening began when Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd announced their ME11 service would resume Red Sea transits in mid-February, following trial voyages and a lull in attacks after the Gaza ceasefire in October 2025.
The industry remains split on risk tolerance. Days after Maersk moved back toward Suez, CMA
CGM rerouted three Asia-Europe services around the Cape, citing “the complex and uncertain international context.”
“These conflicting decisions suggest capacity will return to the market gradually rather than all at once,” Drewry said, adding that a phased approach could limit the risk of a sharp spot-rate collapse.
Looking ahead, analysts continue to warn that global freight rates could fall by as much as 25% in 2026 as new vessel deliveries collide with softer demand, even if Red Sea conditions remain stable.
For Egypt, the stakes are high. The Suez Canal’s chairman has forecast a return to normal traffic levels by the second half of 2026. Before attacks began in late 2023, the canal handled about 12% of global seaborne trade and processed roughly 80 containerships per week.
With carriers now announcing 63 blank sailings for February—up sharply from 27 in January—the market appears braced for further rate pressure as factories shut down and cargo demand weakens.
· China Tells State Firms to Freeze Panama Projects After Canal Ports Ruling
China is asking state firms to halt talks over new projects in Panama, as part of Beijing’s broader retaliation after the Central American country voided CK Hutchison Holdings Ltd.’s contract to operate two ports along its strategic canal, according to people familiar with the matter.
The move could derail potential investments worth billions of dollars, the people said, asking not to be identified discussing private matters. Beijing has also asked shipping companies to consider rerouting cargo through other ports if it doesn’t result in significant extra costs, they added.
China’s customs authorities are also stepping up inspections on Panamanian imports such as bananas and coffee, the people said. Projects already underway may also be affected, they added, though no final instructions have been given yet.
The State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, which oversees Chinese state firms, and China’s General Administration of Customs didn’t reply to Bloomberg News’ faxed request for comment. CK Hutchison also didn’t immediately reply to Bloomberg’s request for comment.
The move came after Panama’s top court decision last week handed a win to President Donald Trump’s campaign to curb Chinese influence over strategic infrastructure in the Americas. It immediately drew condemnation from Beijing.
China — the second largest user of the Panama Canal after the US — cautioned earlier this week that Panama would pay a “heavy price” for yielding to what it termed American hegemony.
China’s retaliation follows a similar move it adopted last year after CK Hutchison announced in March the sale of its global port assets — including its operation at Balboa and Cristóbal in Panama — to a consortium led by Italian billionaire Gianluigi Aponte’s Terminal Investment Ltd. and US investment firm BlackRock Inc. Back then Beijing criticized the sale as kowtowing to American pressure and told state-owned firms to hold off on any new collaboration with businesses linked to CK Hutchison’s Hong Kong billionaire founder Li Ka-shing and his family, Bloomberg reported.
Still it remains to be seen if China’s current retaliatory measures would inflict significant pain on Panama. The US continues to hold sizable economic sway as Panama’s top trade partner and investor, even though Beijing has been encroaching on US dominance in the broader Latin American region over the years. Panama’s crops account for just a fraction of its total exports to China, while steering away from the Panama-canal in most cases is bound to incur more costs and delays.
The country also withdrew from China’s Belt and Road Initiative last year, a move that could also limit further collaboration in infrastructure building. So far Chinese state firms’ existing infrastructure projects in Panama include a $1.4 billion fourth bridge over the canal, a cruise terminal constructed by China Harbour Engineering Co. and a segment of a metro line by China Railway Tunnel Group Co.
Meanwhile, CK Hutchison, which has been operating the two Panama terminals since 1997, is seeking damages through international arbitration against the court ruling.
The two Panama facilities have been the primary hurdle in the Hong Kong conglomerate’s ports sale. CK Hutchison and other parties involved in the deal are considering ways to move the discussions forward, including splitting the assets into separate parcels with different ownership structures, people familiar with the matter have said earlier. The arrangement could give Cosco larger stakes of ports in regions more friendly with China such as Africa, the people said.
If completed, the entire transaction could hand CK Hutchison more than $19 billion in cash, though analysts have expected smaller valuation and proceeds following the Panama ruling.
· VLCC ‘aggregator’ has caused fundamental market shift, says DHT
Customers are increasingly worried about VLCC availability and are bidding up time-charter rates for one- to three-year durations.
Consolidated VLCC ownership should lead to better information flow and more market power for vessel Owners v/s Charterers. Consolidation drive may not be over yet; DHT believes ‘the aggregator’ is ‘looking for additional tonnage’.
VLCC ownership has abruptly become much more concentrated. ‘We can say with confidence that this is already having an impact on freight rates in the spot market, customer demand for time charters, and values of second-hand VLCCs,’ says DHT’s Svein Moxnes Harfjeld.
· Maersk lays out scenarios for duration and severity of slump
Maersk is exclusively sailing through Bab el Mandeb with military escorts; its full return will only come after it feels comfortable without escorts. Global capacity growth is expected to be 4%-8% this year, topping demand growth of 2%-4%, creating negative pressure on rates. Maersk expects industry-wide capacity management to begin this year.
‘The unknown is how deep and long it will last,’ says Maersk’s Patrick Jany of the rate downturn. ‘Our view is that you will not have three years of pain. You will have one or two years of pain, then capacity will be taken out’.
Baltic News 5th February, 2026
BALTIC FORWARD ASSESSMENTS – THURSDAY 05 FEBRUARY 2026 BFA CAPESIZE
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Feb | 26 | 23,071 $/day | -225 ↓ |
| Mar | 26 | 27,325 $/day | -71 ↓ |
| Apr | 26 | 28,114 $/day | -232 ↓ |
| May | 26 | 28,518 $/day | -103 ↓ |
| Jun | 26 | 28,886 $/day | -96 ↓ |
| Jul | 26 | 29,229 $/day | 15 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 | 23,940 $/day | -99 ↓ |
| Q2 | 26 | 28,506 $/day | -144 ↓ |
| Q3 | 26 | 29,129 $/day | -25 ↓ |
| Q4 | 26 | 29,279 $/day | -82 ↓ |
| Q1 | 27 | 19,814 $/day | 46 ↑ |
| Q2 | 27 | 25,139 $/day | 18 ↑ |
| Cal | 27 | 25,575 $/day | -11 ↓ |
| Cal | 28 | 23,625 $/day | 14 ↑ |
| Cal | 29 | 21,618 $/day | -14 ↓ |
| Cal | 30 | 20,621 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 31 | 19,582 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 32 | 19,068 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 33 | 18,918 $/day | 0 → |
BFA PANAMAX 82
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Feb | 26 | 14,854 $/day | -132 ↓ |
| Mar | 26 | 17,171 $/day | -86 ↓ |
| Apr | 26 | 17,957 $/day | -39 ↓ |
| May | 26 | 17,854 $/day | 33 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 | 17,293 $/day | -64 ↓ |
| Jul | 26 | 16,607 $/day | 36 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 | 15,110 $/day | -73 ↓ |
| Q2 | 26 | 17,701 $/day | -24 ↓ |
| Q3 | 26 | 16,225 $/day | -4 ↓ |
| Q4 | 26 | 15,275 $/day | -46 ↓ |
| Q1 | 27 | 13,236 $/day | 18 ↑ |
| Q2 | 27 | 14,839 $/day | 35 ↑ |
| Cal | 27 | 14,168 $/day | 18 ↑ |
| Cal | 28 | 13,629 $/day | -10 ↓ |
| Cal | 29 | 13,339 $/day | 14 ↑ |
| Cal | 30 | 13,079 $/day | 15 ↑ |
| Cal | 31 | 12,929 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 32 | 12,925 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 33 | 12,854 $/day | 0 → |
BFA SUPRAMAX 63
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Feb | 26 | 14,302 $/day | -71 ↓ |
| Mar | 26 | 17,055 $/day | -79 ↓ |
| Apr | 26 | 17,845 $/day | 115 ↑ |
| May | 26 | 17,645 $/day | 115 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 | 17,427 $/day | 129 ↑ |
| Jul | 26 | 16,673 $/day | 50 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 | 14,687 $/day | -50 ↓ |
| Q2 | 26 | 17,639 $/day | 119 ↑ |
| Q3 | 26 | 16,398 $/day | 96 ↑ |
| Q4 | 26 | 15,620 $/day | 68 ↑ |
| Q1 | 27 | 14,030 $/day | 78 ↑ |
| Q2 | 27 | 15,259 $/day | 111 ↑ |
| Cal | 27 | 14,555 $/day | 42 ↑ |
| Cal | 28 | 14,384 $/day | 39 ↑ |
| Cal | 29 | 14,209 $/day | 21 ↑ |
| Cal | 30 | 13,963 $/day | 8 ↑ |
| Cal | 31 | 13,930 $/day | 7 ↑ |
| Cal | 32 | 13,677 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 33 | 13,659 $/day | 0 → |
BFA SUPRAMAX 58
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Feb | 26 | 12,268 $/day | -71 ↓ |
| Mar | 26 | 15,021 $/day | -79 ↓ |
| Apr | 26 | 15,811 $/day | 115 ↑ |
| May | 26 | 15,611 $/day | 115 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 | 15,393 $/day | 129 ↑ |
| Jul | 26 | 14,639 $/day | 50 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 | 12,653 $/day | -50 ↓ |
| Q2 | 26 | 15,605 $/day | 119 ↑ |
Baltic Exchange Index – 05 FEBRUARY 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2951 (- 43)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== ========
C2 170000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 12.081 -0.125
C3 170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 23.550 -0.177
C5 160-170000 mt W Australia to Qingdao 8.405 +0.060
C7 160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 15.250 -0.194
C8_182 182000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 33,188 -812
C9_182 182000mt Cont/Med Trip China/Japan 52,917 – 972
C10_182 182000mt China/Japan T/P RV 21,014 +19
C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil or W.Africa RV 27,505 -536
C16_182 182000mt Far East – Atlantic BH 7,533 -156
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 17.300 -0.025
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 23,263 -390
5TC_182 Weighted Timecharter Average 26,766 -390
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 05 February 2026
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 10,613 +31
Baltic Exchange Spramax Index – 05 FEBRUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1102 (+10)
Route Description Value ($) Change
=============================================== =====
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 15,842 +25
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 24,325 +1361
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 12,844 -156
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 10,500 -100
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 24,514 +1225
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 10,821 +14
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 19,579 +47
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 11,750 -93
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 15,871 +257
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 9,156 -88
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 12,383 0
====== ========================================= =====
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 13,929 +128
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 11,895 +128
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 05 February 2026
Route Description Value($) Change
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S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 12,844 -156
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 11,750 – 93
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 9,156 – 88
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S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 11,457 -118
Baltic Exchange Index – 05 FEBRUARY 20226
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 636 (+ 7)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== =======
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro7,200 +71
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 8,607 0
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 18,961 +417
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 18,100 +425
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 10,100 0
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 9,569 0
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 9,019 +13
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7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 11,444 +115
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2026
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