- Davos 2026: No evidence of anything bad
in India’s GDP data, Gita Gopinath on IMF’s C-grade
WEF Summit Davos 2025: ‘We didn’t see any smoking gun evidence that there was something particularly bad about India’s GDP numbers versus any other countries,’ says Gita Gopinath.
Economist Gita Gopinath has said that, during her time at the International Monetary Fund, she found no evidence to suggest that India’s GDP numbers were flawed. Gopinath, who served as IMF Chief Economist from 2019 to 2022 and later as
Deputy Managing Director from 2022 to 2025, made the remarks while speaking on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum in Davos.
- As economic Pangaea fractures, global risks multiply Two hundred million years ago, the supercontinent Pangaea began to crack. The process was slow, almost invisible at first, but once it started, it could not be reversed. Today, something similar is unfolding – not to landmasses, but to the global order that shaped the world for the past three decades.
Mark Carney, Canda’s former central banker and now Prime Minister, put it bluntly at the World Economic Forum in Davos, warning that the world is living through “a rupture, not a transition”. The assumptions that underpinned global trade and stability, he said, no longer hold.
The warning is timely. The integrated system that emerged after the Cold War – built on open trade, interlinked economies and shared rules – is breaking apart. For roughly 30 years after
1991, the world moved towards what might be called an economic Pangaea.
Good’s were produced wherever it was cheapest and most efficient. China became the factory floor. India emerged as the software backbone. Southeast Asia carved out manufacturing niches. Borders still existed on maps, but for business they mattered less and less.
This system delivered obvious gains. Products became cheaper. Growth accelerated. Hundreds of millions were lifted out of poverty. Entire nations transformed themselves by plugging into the global supply chains. Yet its most important contribution went largely unnoticed because it worked quietly in the background.
Economic integration acted as a restraint
When the world genuinely interconnected, isolation carried real consequences. Sanctions mattered because there were no easy alternatives. Countries that crossed certain lines faced exclusion from the only economic system that mattered. Even authoritarian regimes had to calculate carefully.
The system was deeply flawed. Rules were applied selectively. Ordinary citizens often bore the cost of economic sanctions against dictators. China wielded market access as leverage to silence criticism and reshape global norms to suit its interests. Yet, for all its contradictions, this interconnected order imposed limits. It restrained recklessness in ways diplomacy and international law often failed to do.
The response has been swift. Countries are rebuilding domestic manufacturing despite higher costs. The United States is investing heavily in semiconductor production. Japan is doubling down on robotics. India wants to make more of what it consumes. Nations are scrambling to secure energy, food and critical minerals.
The guiding question has changed. It is no longer “where is it cheapest to produce?” but “where is it safest?”.
None of this means the old order was ideal, or that a return to it is possible. That world is gone. What replaces it remains uncertain.
· Managing Volatile Times
What a chaotic week it’s been for markets. From Greenland to Japan, investors tried to make sense of a raft of headlines and what they mean for asset prices.
A gauge of equity volatility soared to the highest since November as US President Donald Trump caused an uproar over his ambition to control Greenland. Japan’s $7.2 trillion government bond market went into a tailspin with fears about a Liz Truss moment in the country after Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi sparked a rout with her election pitch. Japanese bonds rebounded after Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama told everyone to “calm down.”
· ‘The damage has been done’: As Trump claims victory on Greenland, Europe loses trust
President Donald Trump flew home from an international conference here Thursday with a parting message: “It was an incredible time in Davos.”
For him, perhaps. For many of the United States’ European allies, it was a sign of global “rupture“ that could reverberate for years.
Trump has appeared to back off his maximalist demand that the U.S. take ownership of Greenland, moving instead toward a deal that would allow the U.S. to place more troops, bases and military hardware on the island, a territory of Denmark.
In an interview with Fox Business, he said, “We’re getting everything we wanted — total security, total access to everything.”
Yet all of that was available to Trump from the start, without the drama that sent the NATO alliance barrelling toward an internal crisis, a Danish official told NBC News on Thursday.
Sen. Lisa Murkowski, R-Alaska, who attended the World Economic Forum in Davos, told NBC News, “As an American, as an Alaskan, I was concerned that in this global forum, the relationships that have been built up with so many, perhaps, were fractured.”
Before Trump touched down in Davos, Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney warned in a speech that geopolitical relations are undergoing a “rupture.”
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz echoed Carney’s point in his own speech in Davos on Thursday. He warned that the “international order of the past three decades — anchored in international law — has always been imperfect. Today, it’s very foundations have been shaken.”
- In the days following last week’s Japanese bond crash, traders were still stunned by the speed and breadth of it all. In the Japanese government bond market of old, it would take weeks—sometimes months—for yields to eke out, tick by tick, a move of that magnitude.
But the latest selloff, which sent tremors across global markets and was accompanied by dramatic swings in the
yen, made clear those days are over. Traders are braced for more disorderly market swings as Japan hurtles toward a Feb. 8 snap election—and there’s an even bigger worry for the rest of the world over the long term.
· India ties show fractured world another way: EU
- Delhi Summit to Open New Chapter.
Prime Minister Modi’s discussions with EU leaders this week will herald a new chapter in bilateral ties, EAM Jaishankar said as he welcomed European Council and Commission Presidents, Antonio Costa and Ursula von der Leyen respectively, in a meeting. Informatively President Costa was from the State of Goa before migrating to live in Europe.
EU boss ‘Babush’ Antonio Costa flaunts India’s OCI card. What’s his Goa link?
European Council President Antonio Luis Santos da Costa
unexpectedly took out his OCI card and spoke about his personal connection to India during the India-EU trade deal announcement.
The announcement of the India-EU trade deal, years in the making, witnessed a light-hearted moment when European Council President Antonio Luis Santos da Costa unexpectedly took out his OCI card and spoke about his personal connection to India. Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who was present along with EU President Ursula von der Leyen, was all smiles as Costa spoke about his Goa roots, linking it to the growing partnership between Europe and India.
The leaders were treated to a ceremonial welcome on Sunday shortly after Costa’s arrival and attended today Monday 26th January’26 the 77th Indian Republic Day Parade as Chief Guests of India, ahead of the 16th EU-India summit. Shortly
after the welcome ceremony von der Leyen said “We are showing a fractured world that another way is possible”. The Summit takes place at a time Europe’s Trans-Atlantic alliance is under strain and India too is in the crosshairs of President Trump’s trade policies.
February’26 will have more valuable visits to India by the French President Macron. Bibi invites PM Modi to Israel, at a time when, Netanyahu’s own visit to India remains pending or, as a source put it, work in progress. According to Brussels, the new strategic agenda will look to ramp up co-operation across four key pillars – prosperity and sustainability, technology and innovation, security and defence, connectivity and global issues.
India may cut tariffs on EU cars from as high as 110% to 40%, in the biggest opening yet of the country’s vast market, hopefully as the two sides will conclude a FTA in next couple of days, benefitting Car manufacturers like Volkswagen, Mercedes and BMW, on a limited number of cars from the 27 nation bloc. The tariffs will be further lowered in course of time to 10%.
The Echo from the above:
The U.S. Announces to Cut Military Aids For Allies in Major Push to Protect the Homeland First
The Pentagon’s latest defence blueprint reorders priorities, pushes allies to the front line, and reawakens an old doctrine with new consequences.
The United States has adopted a revised national defence strategy that redirects military focus away from traditional overseas engagements. Framed as a return to core national interests, the policy redefines Washington’s role in global security at a time
marked by geopolitical fragmentation and intensifying strategic competition.
Released in January 2026, the strategy outlines a framework centered on homeland defence, reduced dependence on foreign deployments, and greater self-reliance among allies. The Department of War confirmed that the document will guide force structure, industrial investment, and international coordination through the end of the decade.
President Donald Trump has described the policy as a modern extension of the Monroe Doctrine, designed to address emerging threats in the Western Hemisphere and consolidate U.S. strategic dominance closer to home.
Homeland Security and Regional Control Top Priorities
At the forefront of the 34-page strategy is a renewed commitment to domestic protection. Priorities include fortifying U.S. borders, expanding missile defence through the Golden Dome system, and developing counter-drone capabilities. The document highlights key strategic terrain—specifically the Panama Canal, Greenland, and the Gulf of Mexico—as critical to national defence.
“We will engage in good faith with our neighbours, from Canada to our partners in Central and South America, but we will ensure that they respect and do their part to defend our shared interests. And where they do not, we will stand ready to take focused, decisive action that concretely advances U.S. interests.”
· Breaking: India and European Union have closed a ‘landmark’ free trade deal, Prime Minister Modi says
For New Delhi, which has been facing the brunt of punitive
U.S. tariffs, this deal could be a much-needed shot in the arm.
Trade talks between the two sides were relaunched in 2022 and the deal has been in the making for about two decades.
India and the European Union on Monday closed a “landmark” free trade agreement, touted as the “mother of all deals,” Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi said during a speech at the India Energy Week on Tuesday.
The FTA with the EU, which represents about 25% of global GDP and about a third of global trade, will also complement India’s deals with Britain and the European Free Trade Association, Modi said.
The agreement will forge a market of 2 billion people at a time when trade ties are being tested amid rising geopolitical tensions.
“I congratulate our colleagues associated with every sector,
such as textiles, gems and Jewellery, leather and shoes. This
deal will prove to be very supportive to these sectors,” Modi
said in a speech in Hindi, translated by CNBC.
Modi and EU President Ursula von der Leyen are expected to make a joint statement at the India-EU summit in New Delhi, later in the day, revealing the details of the deal that had been in the making for nearly two decades.
Trade talks between the two sides were re-launched in 2022 and the deal has been long time in the making due to “mutually sensitive” issues such as agriculture and automotive. “India and European union can both be very protectionist,” Hosuk Lee Makiyama, director of European Centre for International Political Economy, told CNBC.
Neither the EU nor India have secured a large trade deal which could impact their economic growth, especially as U.S. and China are closed off for a deal, so this deal will be “one of the best they can get,” he said.
Biggest trade partner
For New Delhi, which has been facing the brunt of punitive U.S. tariffs, this deal could be a much-needed shot in the arm. Since Trump imposed 50% tariffs on the Asian economy in August last year, it has been looking at alternative markets for its exports and has entered into trade deals with several countries.
This is India’s fourth major trade deal since the U.S.,
India’s biggest export market and a major trading partner, imposed steep tariffs in August. It has entered into a trade pact with the U.K., Oman and New Zealand.
According to European Commission data, goods traded between India and the EU in 2024 amounted to over 120 billion euros (about $140 billion), making the bloc New Delhi’s largest trading partner. Machinery and appliances, chemicals, base metals, mineral products and textiles are New Delhi top exports
to the bloc. For the year ended March 2025, India’s goods trade
with EU stood at $136 billion.
India is the ninth largest trading partner of the EU, accounting for 2.4% of the bloc’s total trade in goods in 2024, far behind major partners like the U.S. (17.3%), China (14.6%), or the U.K. (10.1%). The EU’s main exports to India include machinery and appliances, transport equipment, and chemicals.
European Commission President Ursula von der
Leyen said at the World Economic Forum in Davos on Jan. 20 that the bloc was set on “choosing fair trade over tariffs. Partnership over isolation. Sustainability over
exploitation.”
India’s total exports to six major EU markets — Netherlands, Germany, Italy, Spain, France and Belgium — were $43.8 billion in the nine months ending December, compared to
$65.88 billion for the U.S. alone.
Experts have said that even though India’s deal with the EU
is a major milestone, it will not replace the need for an India-
U.S. deal.
In 2024, India’s goods trade surplus with the U.S. was $45.8 billion, while for the EU it was substantially lower at $25.8 billion.
- India and the EU have praised the “landmark” free trade agreement, calling it the “mother of all deals.”
- The trade deal is being widely seen as a strategic hedge against volatile U.S. trade policies.
- Attention has turned to how U.S. President Donald Trump could react to the deal.
German Economy:
Looking for an Upswing:
German companies remain sceptical about their economic outlook. The Ifo Business Climate Index shows no change at the beginning of 2026 compared to the previous month. Unfortunately, it
remains poor. But given the global situation, the export- oriented nature of German industry, and the uncertainty surrounding planned reforms by the federal government, this is hardly surprising.
US President Donald Trump is raging against his trading partners and repeatedly threatening new tariffs. Even if he quickly withdraws them – as was the case with the European Greenland supporters – the concern remains. Over the weekend, Volkswagen CEO Oliver Blume stated that the existing burden of trade duties is leaving less money for major investments. In this specific case, that means no Audi plant in the US . So much for that, Mr. President.
There remains hope that domestic investment in infrastructure and defence will quickly gain momentum. There are already glimmers of hope on the horizon. For example, orders in the manufacturing sector have recently risen sharply, contributing to the expansion of the German economy in the fourth quarter and enabling it to report growth year-on-year for the first time since 2022.
But the big breakthrough is still pending. “The German economy is starting the new year without momentum,” says Ifo President Clemens Fuest. While industry was more satisfied with current business in January and
expectations were also significantly less pessimistic, the climate in the service sector has deteriorated.
Purchasing managers recently reported that companies in this sector have drastically reduced their workforces. Disputes in Berlin over pension and social security reforms are also not helping consumer demand. And so, last week, the Bundesbank announced that it expects only modest growth in the current quarter.
Those wishing to remain optimistic might say: at least it’s something.
Wobbly World Currency
The dollar is under pressure as financial markets bet on a coordinated intervention by the US and Japan to support the yen. Speculation about a currency deal similar to the historic Plaza Accord of 1985 fuelled the recent yen recovery. The aim of such cooperation would be a targeted devaluation of the greenback to boost US exports. Strategists interpret this as a signal that the Trump administration generally favours a weaker dollar. Additionally, political instability, growing budget deficits, and doubts about the Fed’s independence are weighing on the world’s reserve currency. President Donald Trump’s erratic policies— including threats of tariffs against Canada and territorial claims to Greenland—are creating uncertainty. This mix of factors has once again triggered a debasement trade: investors are fleeing fiat currencies for real assets. As a result, the price of gold surpassed $5,000 per ounce for the first time , while the price of silver climbed to a record high of over $100. Precious metals now serve investors as the ultimate hedge against geopolitical risks and impending currency devaluation.
- Warning Signal:
Will artificial intelligence eventually replace my job? It’s a question many people are asking themselves—perhaps even more so in the UK than in other countries. A Morgan Stanley study, shows that the UK is losing more jobs to AI than it is creating. Over the past twelve months, British companies reported a net job loss of 8% due to AI—the highest figure in a comparison group that included firms from Germany, the US, Japan, and Australia.
In Germany, the AI-related job loss was 4%, while new hires were higher than in the UK. However, the study clearly shows that AI is increasing the productivity of companies. One of the report’s authors, Rachel Fletcher, head of sustainability research in the EMEA region, said the findings are an “early warning sign” of how AI is changing the job market.
In the days following last week’s Japanese bond crash, traders were still stunned by the speed and breadth of it all. In the Japanese government bond market of old, it would take weeks—sometimes months—for yields to eke out, tick by tick, a move of that magnitude.
But the latest selloff, which sent tremors across global markets and was accompanied by dramatic swings in the yen, made clear those days are over. Traders are braced for more disorderly market swings as Japan hurtles toward a Feb. 8 snap election—and there’s an even bigger worry for the rest of the world over the long term.
- JSW Steel Ltd, India’s largest steel-maker by capacity, is accelerating its expansion plans and now expects to reach around 56 million tpa by FY31, according to the company, sighting early signs of recovery in demand.
- BPCL to ink $780 mn Petrobras crude deal Bharat Petroleum Corp. Ltd. will sign a contract with Brazil’s Petrobras this week to supply 12 mio barrels of crude oil, as India continues to diversify its sourcing beyond Russia and West Asia. The contract will be signed at the India Energy Week 2026, in Goa on 27-30 January. The two sides had signed a contract for one year in February’25. Under the new contract, crude will be supplied over FY’27.
· Indian Government set to budget Rs.9,800 Cr for Maritime Development
The Fund aims to lower capital costs, attract investments in shipyards, coastal infra and waterways.
Are Republicans growing a little uneasy about the ICE raids?
Even in deeply conservative Louisiana, there were hints of uneasiness with the Trump administration’s immigration crackdown.
“He thinks he’s picking up criminals, but he’s picking up too many U.S. citizens, as far as I’m concerned,” said Wayles Bradley, 69, who said he had voted for President Trump but didn’t consider himself “far right.”
“I wasn’t excited about the fact that the previous administration let so many people in illegally, and that was a very big concern of mine,” said a man who identified himself only as Craig T., 61, and called himself a “die-hard Republican.”
But he added, “it just seems like we’ve kind of gone 180 degrees in the other direction. I was OK with that, but it just seems like there’s a lot of — maybe it’s a little bit of overreach.”
Turns out, that sentiment is not merely anecdotal. A new
poll from The New York Times and Siena University found that
61 percent of voters overall said the tactics used by Immigration and Customs Enforcement had “gone too far,” including nearly one in five Republicans, as my colleagues Jennifer Medina and Ruth Igielnik reported today. Seventy-one percent of independents said the same.
It is possible the backlash may grow as the Trump administration expands its immigration operations, pushing this week into Maine — a critical Senate battleground state.
Already, crackdowns in other cities have left indelible images, like the photograph of a 5-year-old boy in an oversized blue hat who was detained with his father by immigration authorities in the Minneapolis area this week.
Some Republicans now seem to be trying to tread a bit more carefully, with Vice President JD Vance on Thursday saying the administration was seeking to “turn down the temperature” in Minneapolis. Senator Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican who faces a difficult re-election contest, raised concerns about what she called “excessive” ICE tactics in an interview with Reuters.
And other Republicans, including Senator Jim Justice of West Virginia, have called for more training for ICE, Politico reported recently, even as they often stop short of criticizing the agency.
“They need to show more balance in enforcement and more compassion and empathy in enforcement,” Brian Fitzpatrick, a moderate Pennsylvania Republican, told the outlet.
Of course, few Republican lawmakers are eager to voice opposition to Trump’s crackdown. And immigration — especially how to talk about enforcement — remains a challenging and divisive topic for Democrats.
The subject more broadly divides the country, too. The Times/Siena poll found that roughly half of voters support Trump’s deportations and his handling of the border with
Mexico. Protest politics can also be complicated for Democrats to navigate.
As always, it will be worth watching how embattled lawmakers in tough seats talk about these subjects — if they do at all.
In the meantime, for those in the path of the storm, stay warm!
· US Treasury Escalates Pressure on Iranian Regime by Sanctioning Vessel & Operators
US Treasury issued a press release targeting vessels used to transport Iranian crude oil and other Iranian petroleum products. These vessels are Owned and operated by a group of companies operating out of various jurisdictions, largely established for the sole purpose of Owning and Managing their respective vessels. The following vessels are linked to years of Iranian petroleum shipments, including significant volumes in 2025 that continue into 2026.
The Palau-flagged SEA BIRD (IMO 9088536), managed and operated by United Arab Emirates (UAE)-based Horizon Harvest Shipping LLC, has transported hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian liquified petroleum gas (LPG) to East Asia, Djibouti, and UAE.
The Comoros-flagged AVON (IMO 9034705), owned, operated, and managed by India-based Aayat Ship Management Private Limited, transported multiple shipments of Iranian LPG to Bangladesh and Pakistan in 2025.
The Palau-flagged AL DIAB II (IMO 9053816), owned, managed, and operated by Oman-based Black Stone Oil and Gas, transported multiple shipments of Iranian LPG to Pakistan and Somalia in 2025.
The Palau-flagged CESARIA (IMO 9251602), owned by Seychelles-based Galeran Service Corp, has transported
millions of barrels of Iranian crude oil to East Asia since late 2025.
The unknown-flagged LONGEVITY 7 (IMO 9240885), owned and managed by Marshall Islands-based Longevity Shipping Limited, transported hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian clean condensate received via a ship-to-ship
transfer. LONGEVITY 7 also carried multiple cargoes of Iranian methanol in 2022. The LONGEVITY 7 has operated as part of the Iranian shadow fleet since at least 2020, transporting Iranian petrochemicals to East Asia.
The Palau-flagged EASTERN HERO (IMO 9353905), owned by Marshall Islands-based Odyssey Marine Inc., has transported hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian high sulfur fuel oil since 2025.
The Panama-flagged AQUA SPIRIT (IMO 9197727), owned by Liberia-based Benoil Shipping Inc, has transported hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian petroleum products, including LPG, to Pakistan and other locations since 2025.
The Comoros-flagged CHIRON 5 (IMO 9306665)
and KEEL (IMO 9176929), both of which are owned, managed, and operated by Marshall Islands-based Trade Bridge Global Inc., have transported hundreds of thousands of barrels of Iranian naphtha since 2025.
Lama Laboratory
Llamas are playing an increasingly important role in pharmaceutical research because they produce special antibodies—so-called nanobodies—that are smaller, more stable, and more easily modified than human antibodies. This allows them to reach target structures that are difficult for conventional drugs to access, in some cases even across the blood-brain barrier. These
properties make nano-bodies particularly interesting for the treatment of cancer , autoimmune diseases, chronic pain, and neurological disorders. Large pharmaceutical companies such as Sanofi, AstraZeneca, and Eli Lilly, together with biotech firms, are investing billions in this technology—the first drugs have already been approved or are in advanced stages of clinical trials.
The research originated in Belgium, where the antibodies were first discovered and where a significant biotech ecosystem has developed. The llamas are immunized under controlled conditions, and their antibodies are then isolated and further optimized in the laboratory. Despite some setbacks in studies, the field is considered strategically important, even though a major commercial breakthrough is still pending.
As the crisis around Greenland recedes, Europe is more clear-eyed about the future. Trump’s about-face on his bellicose claims on the Danish territory and threats to unleash new tariffs against Europe was welcomed, but the bloc’s trust in the US has crumbled.
“We need to face reality,” Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez put it bluntly in the early hours of Friday in Brussels. “The government of the US is not respecting international law and is provoking tension in the transatlantic relation between the USA and EU like never before.”
Despite widespread acceptance at last week’s summit that the EU needs to stand on its own feet, decoupling from the US is easier said than done.
Today’s announcement by the European Commission of
a formal investigation into Elon Musk’s social-media platform X under its flagship tech regulation, the Digital Services Act, is an indication of the huge leverage Brussels can wield against US big tech when it comes to the regulatory sphere.
But Europe’s reliance on the US for digital infrastructure complicates matters, with the EU’s lack of homegrown tech giants exposing the scale of its dependencies when it comes to technology that supports so much of the European economy.
Shipping News:
· The week in newbuildings: Circa $3bn
worth of orders signed across tanker, gas, boxship and bulker sectors
- New orders for four bulkers and four boxships together with eight tankers and 11 gas carriers were disclosed in the past week. Notable deals were placed by d’Amico International Shipping, which returned to Jiangsu New Yangzijiang for further product tankers.
TMS Cardiff Gas is expanding its LNG carrier portfolio after an agreement for up to six newbuildings at China’s Hudong-Zhonghua Shipbuilding. Ordering activity
highlights the continued need for fleet renewal despite long delivery horizons stretching out to 2029
· China container futures and tanker stocks jump on Iran standoff as Frontline VLCC deal resets term-rate benchmark
China’s container freight futures rallied despite sliding spot rates, as traders priced in prolonged Red Sea disruption risk. The Iran standoff and fresh US sanctions kept a geopolitical risk premium in tankers. Analysts said Frontline’s $76,900 per day one-year VLCC fixtures have reset term-rate benchmarks. Markets are betting that geopolitics — from the Red Sea to sanctions — will keep shipping tight, with Frontline’s blockbuster VLCC charter validating the bullish tanker case.
· Atlantica Shipping re-enters dry bulk
Atlantica Shipping has marked its return to the dry bulk sector with the delivery of a Kamsarmax bulker, ending a brief period as an offshore-only outfit.
The Oslo-based company has taken delivery of the 2011-built Kamsarmax Atlantica Star, which recently joined the fleet. The vessel will be placed under technical management with Greek bulker specialist AM Nomikos.
Atlantica did not disclose the seller, but market sources have identified the vessel as the Jag Aarati, a 80,300 dwt Kamsarmax that Indian owner Great Eastern Shipping agreed to sell in December. Brokers estimate the deal was done at between $14m and $15m.
The acquisition marks another strategic shift for Atlantica, which had pared its fleet back to offshore vessels after exiting container shipping last year. Earlier this year, the company delivered the boxship Atlantica Power to its new owners. The
ship was sold in November for a reported $45m with a charter attached and handed over in January.
Atlantica had bought the 2010-built, 4,586 teu ship in 2024, marking its return to container shipping, before adding the
2012-built 3,635 teu Atlantica Pioneer later the same year. That vessel was also sold in late 2025 for around $31m, again with a charter attached.
With the arrival of Atlantica Star, the company is now re- establishing its presence in the dry bulk market through the Kamsarmax segment after selling its last three Supramaxes in the second half of 2024.
· Houthis tease new strikes amid US carrier build-up in the Gulf
As a US carrier strike group makes its way to the Gulf, a familiar foe to commercial shipping has reared its head for the first time in months.
A video titled ‘Soon’ published overnight by the Houthis, carried below, suggests the Iranian-backed Yemeni military group is gearing up to target vessels once again.
Tomorrow (27th January) marks the 800th day of the Red Sea shipping crisis, according to container shipping expert Lars Jensen, who has been covering the Houthi attacks daily via LinkedIn. The Houthis started their campaign back in November 2023 in solidarity with Hamas’s war with Israel.
The Houthis officially announced in early November that they were halting their attacks on commercial shipping.
Their last confirmed attack was on September 29 last year against the Dutch cargo ship Minervagracht.
- Tomorrow marks the 800th day of the Red Sea
shipping crisis
The Houthi strikes, which killed at least nine seafarers and sank four ships, forced global trade to reroute around the Cape of Good Hope for the past couple of years, propping up ton-miles and freight rates. Recent weeks have seen increased traffic heading back through the Suez on the back of the Houthis’ prolonged ceasefire, something that is now in doubt following the publication overnight of the video carried below.
The US is sending a carrier strike group towards the Gulf as tensions with Iran rise again, months after US forces struck three Iranian nuclear sites during Israel’s 12-day war with Tehran. President Donald Trump openly backed anti-government protesters in Iran earlier this year, telling them “Help is on its way” as authorities cracked down, before later toning down his rhetoric once the demonstrations were suppressed.
Trump confirmed the latest deployment, saying: “We’re watching Iran. We have a big force going towards Iran … we have a big flotilla going in that direction, and we’ll see what happens.”
US officials said the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier group, including Arleigh Burke-class destroyers armed with Tomahawk cruise missiles and Aegis air and missile defence systems, had been redirected from the South China Sea towards the Middle East, reportedly entering the Arabian Sea overnight.
A senior Iranian politician said earlier this year that any US aggression aimed at Tehran would see international shipping become targets.
Iran has a history of targeting commercial ships, jamming their AIS systems, and occasionally taking vessels and crews hostage.
Friday saw the US Department of the Treasury’s Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) slap sanctions on nine more shadow fleet vessels and their respective owners or management firms over their ties to Iran.
· Frontline fixes seven VLCC’s at near-
$77,000 a day
Frontline has locked in one-year time charters for seven of its VLCCs at rates not seen in decades, with South Korea’s Sinokor identified as the likely taker of the tonnage, underlining just how hot the crude tanker market has become.
The New York- and Oslo-listed owner said the charters will run for 12 months, starting between late January and April 2026, at an average rate of $76,900 per day per vessel.
Frontline chief executive Lars Barstad said the contracts reflect exceptional market conditions, while stressing the company is still keeping most of its fleet exposed to the spot market.
We are in unprecedented times, and these are charter- out levels not seen for decades
“We are in unprecedented times, and these are charter- out levels not seen for decades,” Barstad said. “Frontline remains largely spot exposed after these contracts become effective, retaining upside in one of the most volatile markets in the world.”
The charters come just weeks after John Fredriksen’s tanker group unveiled a sweeping VLCC fleet reshuffle worth more than $2bn. Frontline has agreed to sell eight first-generation VLCCs, built between 2015 and 2016, for a combined $831.5m, with deliveries scheduled during the first quarter of 2026.
At the same time, the Owner has lined up nine latest- generation, scrubber-fitted VLCC newbuildings from an affiliate of Fredriksen’s private vehicle, Hemen Holding, at a total cost of $1.224bn. Six of the new ships are under construction at Hengli Heavy Industry, with the remaining three at Dalian Shipbuilding. Deliveries are weighted toward 2026, with seven vessels due from the third quarter, followed by one in early 2027 and the final unit in the second quarter of that year.
VLCC charter rates have surged to multi-year highs in early 2026, with spot rates surpassing $100,000 per day and one-year time charters secured at Frontline-deal level. The market is experiencing unprecedented demand and volatility, driven by tighter supply, increased long-haul, and active vessel fixings, causing rates to rebound from below
$50,000 per day earlier in the year.
Market sources have identified the charterer of Frontline’s tankers as South Korea’s Sinokor. Sinokor’s VLCC presence is poised for a significant increase, with its fleet estimated to have 45 ships by December 2025. The company pursued up to 30 VLCC acquisitions, with 24 deals confirmed, and added seven VLCC charter-ins in late 2025 and early 2026, linked to Frontline vessels, potentially raising its total exposure to over 80 ships, according to multiple VLCC broker estimates. If this scale is achieved, the six largest VLCC owners, including China Merchants, COSCO, Fredriksen Group, Bahri, Angelicoussis Group, along with Sinokor, would
collectively control just under 300 ships out of a global fleet of approximately 900, concentrating roughly 30% of VLCC capacity among these six shipowners.
· Golden Energy cashes in with second PSV sale
Golden Energy Offshore Services has pushed through another platform supply vessel sale, continuing a clear effort to strengthen its balance sheet.
The Norwegian owner said its subsidiary has struck a deal to sell the PSV Energy Partner for $27.25m, with completion expected in mid-February. The transaction is set to deliver a booked gain of about $6.5m and net proceeds of roughly
$12.5m after lease repayment, break fees and transaction costs.
The sale follows closely on the heels of last week’s agreement to sell the PSV Energy Empress for $30m to an undisclosed buyer. That deal is also due to complete in February and is expected to generate net proceeds of around NOK 140m ($14m), alongside a booked gain of approximately $14.4m.
Once both transactions close, Golden Energy will have sold two vessels for a combined gross price of about NOK 560m, with net cash inflows exceeding NOK 260m. The company said the proceeds will leave it with a solid cash position.
Following the disposals, the fleet will comprise the MPSV Energy Duchess, PSVs Energy Paradise, Energy Passion and Energy Pace, along with the 2005-built PSV Energy Swan. Several of the remaining units are sister vessels to ships that have now been sold.
The PSV exits come after a turbulent period for the Oslo-listed Owner. In its third-quarter 2025 results, Golden Energy said the board and management were reviewing options to improve liquidity. As part of that process, the company secured a short- term $5m loan in December 2025 to cover immediate needs.
That same month, Golden Energy also raised $31.7m through a private placement. The funds were largely used to clear overdue payables, settle salaries and taxes, repay multiple short-term loans and cover transaction costs, with a smaller portion retained for general corporate purposes.
· Caravel tightens grip on Pacific Basin, rules out takeover bid
Hong Kong conglomerate Caravel Group has increased its shareholding in Pacific Basin Shipping, strengthening its position as the largest shareholder in the dry bulk major while stressing it has no intention of launching a takeover of the company.
The Angad Banga-led group confirmed it now holds 1.04bn shares in the Hong Kong-listed owner, representing about 20.06% of Pacific Basin’s issued share capital.
Caravel Maritime Ventures, part of the Banga family’s Caravel Group, first bought into Pacific Basin in March last year and subsequently increased its holding later in 2025 to become the company’s single largest shareholder.
While Caravel said it may continue to buy shares on the market, it underlined that it does not intend to make an offer for Pacific Basin or raise its stake to a level that would trigger a mandatory general offer under Hong Kong’s takeovers code.
The group added it reserves the right to set aside those restrictions if there is a material change in circumstances, subject to regulatory consent, or if a third party announces or signals a possible offer for the company.
Pacific Basin operates a fleet of more than 250 bulk carriers across the Handy, Supramax and Panamax segments and is a leading operator in the global minor bulks and coal trades.
Caravel’s investment comes with significant shipping firepower behind it. The group owns Fleet Management, one of the world’s largest third-party Shipmanagement companies, and also runs its own dry bulk business focused on the Supramax and Kamsarmax segments.
Last year, Pacific Basin announced plans to relocate its headquarters and around half of its fleet to Singapore. The move, revealed in October 2025, was aimed at limiting exposure to higher US port fees targeting vessels with Chinese, including Hong Kong, Ownership or management. The company is reflagging affected ships to Singapore and shifting key commercial and technical management functions to the city-state.
· Trafigura moves for Onassis and Adnoc VLCC’s as term charter rates spike
Trader is paying less than eye-catching rates secured by Frontline on Friday. Giant trader and Charterer Trafigura has secured more VLCC cover as spot and term rates shoot upwards. Brokers reported the group, which is also an Owner of ships, fixing United Arab Emirates company Adnoc Logistics & Services’ 299,400-dwt Arzanah (built 2023) for a year at a very firm $70,000 per day. This is a big jump from previous levels in the $50,000 region, but still well short of what John Fredriksen’s Frontline clinched for seven of its VLCCs on Friday.
· ICBCL’s operating Bourbon offshore vessels to be auctioned at SHIPBID
Eight Bourbon offshore vessels owned by ICBC Financial Leasing (ICBCL) are scheduled for commercial auction via SHIPBID.net, a global leading online ship transaction platform owned by Zhejiang Shipping Exchange Company.
The vessels, which are operational and completed jobs with the IOC recently, have already been listed on the online auction platform and will be open for bidding from February to March 2026.
They feature two Multi-Purpose Supply Vessels (MPSV), two Large Platform Supply Vessels (Large PSV), and four Anchor Handling Tug Supply vessels (AHTS), satisfying diverse offshore operational needs.
SHIPBID’s broader disposal of ICBCL’s Bourbon fleet has gained strong market traction amid a recovery in the global offshore energy sector. To date, 16 transactions involving 20 Bourbon vessels (including 12 lay-up vessels and eight operating, or in service, vessels) have successfully been auctioned, generating total proceeds exceeding $157 million.
Bidding for previously listed units has been highly competitive, yielding premiums consistently above starting prices. The average premium rate stands at 14.6%, with the AHTS “Bourbon Nilgan” marking the highest premium at 38.86%, sold for $9.72 million. Notably, the first operating vessel to change hands was the PSV “Bourbon Rainbow”, which sold for $23.58
million, well above its $18 million opening bid (starting price) and valuation.
On January 14 2025 the Accommodation and Pipe-Lay Barge “Seven Champion”, which was also owned by ICBCL, was sold for $95.34 million by SHIPBID. The starting price was $55 million, and attracted over 20,000 views worldwide.
These series of successful transactions not only indicates the restored market confidence in offshore service and engineering assets, but also validates the feasibility of the digital commercial auction model operated by SHIPBID.
· Frenetic VLCC market drives fresh dealmaking for modern secondhand tonnage
Greek buyers said to be in the frame for 2020-built ship Buyers continue to pile into VLCC tonnage as frothy spot market freight rates exceed $100,000 per day.
Chinese financial owners are said to have secured between
$112m and $113m for the 308,000-dwt CSSC Liao Ning (built 2020), most likely from Greek interests, in the latest deal reported by brokers.
++
Shipping News:
Week Ending 23rd January’26
This time last year, the dry bulk market was grappling with pronounced weakness and a lack of conviction across nearly all segments.
The Handysize sector, often considered the market’s defensive cornerstone, stood out merely by losing less than the rest.
Even so, rates were sliding sharply, while Panamax, Supramax, and particularly Capesize earnings were under acute pressure.
Freight sentiment at the time was dominated by oversupply, hesitant commodity demand, and a visible erosion of confidence, pushing the BDI into levels not seen since early 2023. Fast forward twelve months, and the contrast could hardly be more striking.
The opening quarter of the year has unfolded with unexpected vigour, delivering one of the strongest starts of the recent past. Rather than grappling with double-digit weekly declines, the market has displayed broad based resilience and consistent upward momentum. Notably, it is the gearless segments that have taken the lead.
Capesize earnings advanced sharply over the week, recording gains of 16 percent and settling at $23,431 per day. Panamax rates followed closely, climbing 10.5 percent week-on-week to reach $14,504 per day.
The Supramax segment also participated in the upswing, with average earnings closing just shy of the $13,000 per day mark, while Handysize rates strengthened further to finish the week at
$10,793 per day. Although all indices remain below the elevated levels observed during the recent peak, they are decisively higher than the corresponding levels recorded a year ago, underlining the scale of the turnaround.
This improvement in freight markets is unfolding against a macro-economic backdrop that, while far from exuberant, has proven more supportive than many had anticipated. According to the IMF, global economic growth in the 3rd quarter of 2025 moderated to 2.4 percent on an annualized basis.
While this figure reflects a gradual deceleration, it still exceeded earlier expectations.
Looking ahead, growth is projected to stabilize rather than deteriorate, with ongoing momentum in high-technology and investment-driven sectors continuing to partially counterbalance weakness in more traditional industries.
Trade policy uncertainty and tariffs remain a structural drag on global activity, but their impact on growth is expected to diminish as economies adjust.
IMF projections place global growth at 3.3 percent in 2026, easing slightly to 3.2 percent in 2027. Notably, the 2026 forecast has been revised upward by 0.2 percentage point compared with the previous outlook, suggesting a more constructive near-term trajectory, even as medium-term risks persist. Within advanced economies, growth is expected to remain rather stable.
The U.S. is projected to expand by 2.4 percent in 2026, supported by fiscal stimulus and a lower policy rate environment, with the dampening effects of higher trade barriers gradually fading. Growth is forecast to remain close to
2.0 percent in 2027, aided by targeted tax incentives designed to stimulate corporate investment.
In the euro area, growth is expected to hold at modest levels, averaging around 1.3 to 1.4 percent through 2026 and 2027. Increased public spending, particularly in Germany, alongside robust performances in Ireland and Spain, is expected to provide incremental support.
Japan’s growth profile remains more constrained, with expansion projected to slow from 1.1 percent in 2025 to below
1.0 percent over the following two years. Even so, recent fiscal measures announced by the government have prompted an upward revision to earlier forecasts.
Emerging market and developing economies continue to provide the main engine of global growth, with aggregate expansion expected to remain just above 4.0 percent through 2026 and 2027.
China’s outlook has improved modestly following additional stimulus measures and increased policy bank lending. Growth for 2025 has been revised upward to 5.0 percent, while the 2026 forecast has also been raised to 4.5 percent, reflecting lower effective US tariff rates and a multi-year policy support assumption. Beyond that, growth is expected to slow toward
4.0 percent in 2027.
Among emerging markets, India continues to stand out as the new locomotive of global growth. IMF estimates place India’s growth at 7.3 percent in 2025, a sharp upward revision reflecting stronger-than-expected momentum. Growth is projected to moderate to around 6.4 percent in 2026 and 2027 as cyclical tailwinds fade, but this pace remains well above the global average and structurally supportive for seaborne trade.
As India gradually assumes a more central role in global commodity trade flows, its influence on dry bulk demand dynamics is becoming increasingly structural rather than cyclical.
Global headline inflation is projected to decline further to 3.8 percent in 2026 and 3.4 percent in 2027, supported by softer demand conditions and lower energy prices.
While inflation persistence remains more pronounced in the
U.S. and select commodity exporters, most major economies are expected to converge toward central bank targets. This environment should allow for a gradual easing of financial conditions, reducing pressure on trade finance and capital- intensive sectors.
From a trade perspective, merchandise volumes are expected to grow at a slower pace following the front loaded expansion seen in 2025.
World trade growth is projected to moderate from 4.1 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026, before rebounding to 3.1 percent in 2027. These shifts reflect ongoing adjustments to new trade policies, inventory normalization, and evolving supply chains, rather than a collapse in underlying demand.
Compared with the stress conditions observed a year ago, today’s dry bulk market is operating from a markedly stronger footing. Early-year momentum, improving sentiment, and a more supportive macro backdrop have collectively lifted earnings across all major segments.
However, with global trade growth expected to slow and policy related uncertainties still unresolved, the current upswing should be viewed through a cyclical lens rather than as the start of a linear recovery. The outlook remains constructive, particularly as emerging markets continue to absorb increasing volumes of seaborne commodities, but the sustainability of current rate levels will ultimately depend on how effectively demand growth keeps pace with fleet availability as the year progresses.
2025 – 2026 – 2027
Iron ore futures traded within a narrow range on Thursday, as investors balanced strong export volumes from Australian
miners against expectations of continued monetary policy support in China. On Friday, futures snapped a six-day losing streak, edging higher as persistently low prices for several steelmaking inputs eased cost pressures for mills.
The Capesize market opened the week on a firm footing across both basins. Sentiment improved steadily through midweek before rates corrected on Thursday. Despite the late- week pullback, the BCI 182 5TC posted a strong performance, rising 16 percent week-on-week to average $23,431 per day.
In the commodity news of the Pacific, China recorded all- time high iron ore imports in December 2025, reaffirming its dominance in global seaborne trade despite softer domestic steel output. Full-year imports reached a record 1.26 billion tonnes, exceeding the previous year’s total.
December arrivals alone surpassed 119 million tonnes, the highest monthly volume on record, as mills restocked amid favourable freight levels and attractive pricing. In parallel, outbound shipments from Port Hedland — the largest iron ore export terminal in Western Australia — totalled approximately 575 million tonnes in 2025, also a record, according to the Pilbara Ports Authority.
In the spot market, the Pacific started the week strong, supported by active miner participation. Rates rose steadily midweek, before easing by Thursday. The C5 index ended the week at $7.755 per metric tone 4 percent higher week-on- week, while on Time Charter the C10_182 route concluded at
$19,318 daily or 13.6 percent higher week-on week.
In recent fixtures, Rio Tinto covered basis ‘TBN’ their 170,000/10 stem ex Dampier 5-7 Feb to Qingdao at $7.73 per metric tonne, and the ‘Alpha Gallant’ (181,162 dwt, 2016) was fixed via Port Hedland 4-7 Feb to Qingdao at $8.20 per metric tonne with Cargill.
In terms of iron ore inventories, as of January 22, the total iron ore volume at major Chinese ports rose to 174.97 million tonnes, an increase of 2.08 million tonnes week-on-week.
In the Atlantic, global iron ore production is estimated to have grown by 3.4 percent in 2025 and is projected to increase by another 4.5 percent in 2026, supported by capacity expansions and new projects.
The Simandou project in Africa, which recently shipped its first cargo, will be a major source of additional supply, while producers in Australia and Brazil continue advancing their own expansion plans, further boosting global output. According to a statement by China Baowu Steel Group, the first commercial iron ore shipment from Guinea’s massive Simandou project arrived in China on January 17, marking a major milestone for the global steel industry. Despite the medium-term supply expansion, short-term shipment data softened.
In mid-January, global iron ore shipments from Australia and Brazil declined for the third consecutive week, falling to an 11- month low of 21.6 million tonnes during the January 12–18 period, down 14.6 percent (3.7 million tonnes) week-on-week. Brazil’s exports dropped to a four-month low of 5.5 million tonnes, with Vale’s shipments plunging 34.2 percent week-on- week to 3.9 million tonnes.
In contrast, the spot market recorded solid early-week gains, supported by strong demand from South Brazil and West Africa. C3 rates advanced from the mid-$19s to the high $21s–
$22s before easing slightly toward the end of the week, closing at $21.777 per day, up 11.3 percent week-on-week.
In the North Atlantic, sentiment strengthened notably midweek as tightening tonnage and firm bids drove the C8_182 to
$26,344 per day, representing an 18 percent increase week-on- week. Similarly the C9_182 route traded higher 13 percent week-on-week at $46,611 per day.
From Brazil, the ‘First Dellphinus’ (182,316 dwt, 2024) was fixed via Tubarao 14-20 Feb to Qingdao at $20.50 per metric tone with Koch, and ‘TBN’ was fixed for 170,000/10 stem via Sudeste 11-17 Feb to Qingdao at $22.50 per metric tone with Usiminas.
In the period market, modern eco Newcastlemax units continue to command substantial premia, reportedly trading at 35 to 38 percent above the 5TC index. In contrast, conventional vintage units are seeing in the mid-$20,000s per day, reflecting the widening efficiency and compliance-driven valuation gap. In the period market, modern eco Newcastlemax units continue to command substantial premia, reportedly trading at 35 to 38 percent above the 5TC index.
Panamax
The week concluded on a positive note, up 10.5% w-o-w at
$14,504, following last week’s momentum; however, toward the end a degree of standoff emerged in the bid–offer spread, with both Owners and Charterers content to defer fixtures into next week.
In the Pacific commodity news, China’s coal market recorded strong import momentum at the end of the year alongside historically high domestic output in 2025.
Thermal coal imports surged 32.5% month on month in December to a record 43.85 MMT, far exceeding typical seasonal levels and averaging 1.41 MMT per day. Thermal coal accounted for around 75% of total coal inflows during the month.
Indonesia remained the dominant supplier, accounting for 65% of December thermal coal imports, followed by Australia and Russia, with the three origins collectively supplying about 91% of total volumes.
Despite the sharp year-end increase, full-year 2025 thermal coal imports declined 12.1% to 356.7 MMT, reflecting weaker import demand earlier in the year.
Metallurgical coal imports also strengthened in December, rising 18.6% m-o-m to 14.75 MMT, even as steel demand remained subdued.
On a calendar-adjusted basis, volumes were 20.2% higher year on year. Mongolia retained its position as the largest supplier with a 46% share, followed by Russia and Australia, while Australian shipments more than doubled from November levels.
For full-year 2025, metallurgical coal imports declined 2.2% to
133.76 MMT, broadly in line with lower crude steel production over the year. Domestic coal production declined 1.0% y o-y in December to 440 MMT, but full-year output reached a record
4.83 billion tonnes in 2025, up 1.2% from 2024.
Lower domestic coal prices encouraged downstream buyers to rebuild inventories, particularly at major Bohai Rim port terminals, where stockpiles increased 12.4% y-o-y by the end of December.
On the fixtures front, indices posted a healthy rise, primarily driven by tonnage ballasting toward ECSA, with NOPAC activity playing a secondary role in keeping northern tonnage occupied.
Australian activity remained weak, while Indonesia saw improvement mainly due to tighter tonnage availability rather than a pickup in cargo demand.
The respective Far East routes marked significant gains compared to last Friday. The P3A_82 HK-SKorea Pacific/RV and the P5_82 S. China Indo RV recorded an increase of 19.2% and 9% respectively.
On the fixtures front, from NoPac, ‘Alpha Hero’ (82,052 dwt, 2018) was fixed at $15,500 basis Nagoya with redelivery PMO with Messrs Classic, reflecting firm sentiment in the region.
Australian activity remained muted, with ‘Pan Mutiara’ (81,177 dwt, 2011) reported at $9,750 from Dangjin for a coal run via Australia to India with Messrs Oldendorff, a level that
suggests ships are willing to take a discount versus P3 to position closer to ECSA.
From Indonesia, ‘Concordia’ (82,499 dwt, 2011) was agreed at
$12,000 for 35 days and escalation to $15,000 thereafter, delivery Hong Kong for a staple coal run to South Korea.
In the Atlantic commodity news, China’s soybean import structure shifted significantly in 2025 as buyers relied heavily on South American supply amid trade disruptions with the United States.
U.S. soybeans accounted for just 15% of China’s imports in 2025, down from 21% a year earlier, after shipments halted from September and imports fell to zero for four consecutive months.
Over the same period, Brazil strengthened its dominance, lifting its market share to 73.6% from 71% in 2024, while Argentina increased its share to 7% from 4%. China’s total soybean imports reached a record 111.83 MMT in 2025, up 6.5% y-o-y, with Brazil supplying 82.32 MMT and Argentina
7.89 MMT, while U.S. volumes declined 24% to 16.82 MMT.
Trade flows shifted again following a late-October truce, after which China resumed U.S. purchases and met a stated commitment to buy 12 MMT by February. These purchases were led by state buyers Sinograin and COFCO, while private crushers continued to favour cheaper South American supplies.
The U.S. cargoes are scheduled for shipment between December and May, with several vessels loading at Gulf Coast terminals and arrivals expected at eastern Chinese ports.
Sinograin has held multiple auctions since December to free storage capacity ahead of these arrivals.
Meanwhile, Brazilian exports remained strong at the start of 2026, with January soybean shipments revised up to a record
3.79 MMT. However, Brazil’s exporters expect shipments to China to decline y-o y amid rising U.S. competition, tighter supply, and higher prices, with implications for soybean meal and oil availability in China.
On the fixtures front, ECSA captured the lion’s share of fixture volume, albeit with less tenacity than last week, closing at
$15,532, up 6% w-o-w. Cargill booked the “Mont Blanc Hawk” (81,638 dwt, 2017) from Singapore 3 Feb for grains via ECSA to Singapore-Japan at $16,750.
In the North Atlantic, supply–demand dynamics remained broadly balanced, allowing both the P1A_82 Skaw–Gib T/A RV at $14,057 (+9.0%) and the P2A_82 Skaw–Gib trip to HK/S Korea incl. Taiwan at $21,923 (+11.9%) to improve.
Notably, a glimpse of USG grain cargoes provided additional support to the region, including “Galateia” (81,886 dwt, 2016) fixing from Lisbon 19 Jan via USG to China at $24,000 with Classic.
On the period front, deals continued to be concluded, though the FFA curve, while positive, lacked the vibrancy seen last week. The Chailease Virtue (80,647 dwt, 2011), from Shanhaiguan 12–14 Feb, fixed an 11–13 month period at
$16,000 with unnamed Charterers.
Supramax
The Supramax segment ended Week 4 on a firmer footing overall, although momentum eased into Friday. Early-week improvements were driven by better demand and a tightening of prompt lists in parts of the Pacific, while the Atlantic stayed more positional, with support in the US Gulf proving uneven.
Overall, the week’s tone was constructive versus recent lows, but without the breadth of enquiry needed to confirm a sustained upswing. The 11TC closed at $12,975, up $755 w-o- w from $12,220 (+6.2%).
In the Pacific, sentiment improved as North Asian demand tightened prompt tonnage and lifted round-voyage returns. The Asia 3TC climbed to $10,512, up $1,520 w-o-w from $8,992 (+16.9%). Macro signals remained mixed: China’s broader industrial backdrop stayed uneven and coal flows were still closely watched, yet Owners found support in steadier trade coverage and better NoPac demand.
From the Far East, the ‘Alpha Legend’ (64,029 dwt, 2025) fixed delivery CJK for a NoPac trip redelivery Singapore/Japan at
$13,000, while the ‘Achi’ (63,301 dwt, 2012) was fixed delivery Shekou for a trip to full India at $9,500/$10,500. The ‘Yasa Sun’ (63,971 dwt, 2025) secured delivery Rizhao for Bangladesh at $10,000, and the ‘CMB Floris’ (63,628 dwt, 2021) was fixed delivery Dangjing for a West Africa run (slag) at
$10,500.
In SE Asia, rates improved slightly, however levels remained overall lustreless: the ‘Lady’ (63,194 dwt, 2015) fixed delivery Singapore for a trip via Indonesia redelivery Philippines in the low $10,000s, the ‘Princess Erin’ (57,334 dwt, 2011) fixed delivery Singapore via Indonesia redelivery CJK at $7,000, and the ‘Otzias’ (56,720 dwt, 2012) fixed delivery Koh Si Chang for Bangladesh at $11,000.
In India–PG, demand was supported by fertiliser-related
flows (with India’s import outlook still in focus), while rates were mixed: the ‘Kira Ocean’ (57,809 dwt, 2011) fixed delivery Dammam for Bangladesh at $11,500 DOP
(limestone), the ‘Yuan Hai Qing Han’ (63,776 dwt, 2025)
fixed delivery Kandla (via Sohar) for a trip redelivery WC India (bulk urea) at $12,500, and the ‘Alasia’ (61,311 dwt,
2014) was fixed delivery Navlakhi for China (salt) in the mid
$11,000’s.
South Africa saw no reported Supramax fixtures.
In the Atlantic, the tone was more positional. The US Gulf remained supported mid-week but lacked convincing follow- through, while the South Atlantic drew stability from grains and fronthaul employment.
Macro themes were broadly supportive for the basin with the upcoming grain season of the southern hemisphere being steadily on the radar, and ANEC’s latest revisions pointed to firmer near-term Brazilian export flows: January soy shipments were revised up again to 3.79m tons (still an all-time monthly high), implying a +237% y-o-y jump, while January corn exports were also lifted to 3.45m tons, running +8.4% y-o-y.
Fixture-wise, in North America, the ‘Genco Bourgogne’ (58,018 dwt, 2010) fixed delivery APS Norfolk for a trip redelivery ECCA at $15,000.
In the South Atlantic, the ‘Century Beijing’ (63,743 dwt, 2024) fixed delivery APS Fazendinha for a trip via Porto Trombetas redelivery Aughinish at $18,000, and the ‘Top Fortune’ (61,447 dwt, 2017) fixed delivery APS Nueva Palmira for a grains run redelivery South Korea at $15,000 daily + $500,000 ballast bonus.
Further West Africa/EC South America-linked business included the ‘SSI Dauntless’ (57,200 dwt, 2013) fixed delivery Lomé for a
trip via Buchanan redelivery Gijón (iron ore) at $11,500, while an Ultramax was also heard fixed delivery Recalada for a trip to WC South America at $24,000 (details not disclosed).
Moving on to the Mediterranean–Black Sea region, the ‘Warrior’ (56,780 dwt, 2012) fixed delivery passing Gibraltar for a trip via Fazendinha to Turkey at $13,000, while the ‘Charisma’ (55,667 dwt, 2010) was reported on subs delivery Béjaïa for a trip via Fazendinha redelivery Algeria at $11,750.
Meanwhile, fixture reports from the Continent remained scarce. Period activity stayed constructive alongside the improved spot tone. The ‘GH Harvest’ (63,500 dwt, 2026 newbuilding) fixed delivery Nantong for 1 year at $16,350, while the ‘Florentia’ (63,340 dwt, 2016) fixed delivery Abidjan for 7/10 months, redelivery worldwide, at $17,100.
Despite firmer pricing and selective demand-driven gains, the Supramax market lacked the depth of enquiry required to confirm a sustained recovery, leaving sentiment constructive versus recent lows but still vulnerable to fading momentum.
Handysize
The Handysize market showed tentative signs of recovery this week, managing to claw back some lost ground after several challenging sessions. The 7TC Average closed at $10,793, reflecting a +2% week on-week increase. Both basins moved modestly higher, with the Atlantic routes rising by +2% and the Pacific posting a more restrained +0.8% gain. While hardly a breakout, the improvement suggested the market may have found a foothold, with sentiment no longer sliding downhill unchecked and owners beginning, cautiously, to test firmer ground.
In the Pacific, the week unfolded quietly but with a slightly steadier undertone than in previous sessions. Early in the week, activity remained muted, with Southeast Asia showing
some tightening in tonnage availability, though rates initially held close to last done levels. As the days progressed, it was noted a subtle shift in posture, with Owners displaying greater resilience and Charterers showing more willingness to engage closer to owners’ ideas. A 40,000 DWT open in the Far East was fixed for a North Pacific round voyage with redelivery Singapore–Japan at $8,500, while another 40,000 DWT open West Coast Australia was reported fixed for a grains run to China at $15,500.
Additionally, a similar-sized unit open in the Far East was heard fixed for a South Korea to U.S. East Coast trip with steels at
$10,000. Although fixing volume remained thin, these fixtures lent some structure to a market that had recently struggled to find its balance.
Across the Atlantic, sentiment was more constructive, particularly as the week progressed.
On the Continent and in the Mediterranean, early activity was limited and rates initially held steady, though fresh demand began to surface later in the week. A 39,000 DWT open East Mediterranean was reported fixed for a West Africa trip with gypsum at $12,000. From the Biscay Bay, a 34,000 DWT and a 23,000 DWT were fixed for scrap runs to Turkey and the East Mediterranean at $12,500 and $10,000 respectively. While not enough to materially tighten the tonnage list, these fixtures hinted at a market no longer drifting aimlessly.
The South Atlantic continued to outperform relative to other regions, with demand remaining healthy and sentiment firm. Early in the week, the ‘Cape Byron’ (36,005 DWT, 2012) open Santos was reported fixed for a trip from Maceio to the Black Sea at $15,000. Momentum built as the week progressed, with a 37,000 DWT reportedly fixed from South Brazil to Skaw– Gibraltar at $22,000. Further support came midweek, as the ‘HL Brilliance’ (33,324 DWT, 2010) fixed from Imbituba to the Arabian Gulf with petcoke close to $14,000, while a 28,000
DWT secured $13,500 for a steel run from Itajai to Buenos Aires or Zona Comun.
Despite the ‘Solent’ (32,067 DWT, 2008) reportedly failing at
$14,500 for a Recalada to Mediterranean trip, the overall tone in the region remained firm, with Owners increasingly confident they were no longer skating on thin ice.
In the U.S. Gulf, the market continued to edge forward, supported by fresh demand and a gradual clearing of the previously lengthy tonnage list. Early signs of improvement solidified as the week progressed, with reports of a more positive mood and expectations inching higher. A 37,000 DWT was fixed from SW Pass to Acajutla at $17,500, underscoring the sense that charterers were becoming more willing to meet Owners partway.
The ‘Drawno’ (39,092 DWT, 2018) open in the Dominican Republic, was heard fixed via Panama City for a UK–Continent run with wood pellets at $17,250. While fixing volume remained selective, the direction of travel appeared clearer, with the market finally beginning to turn the page.
Period activity remained limited but few more discussions offered further confirmation of a stabilizing backdrop.
Although details were sparse, the overall impression was of a market cautiously tidying up positions rather than forcing the issue, with both sides keeping one eye firmly on near-term fundamentals.
After weeks of drifting, the market finally caught a light breeze this week.
After quite a few weeks of negative sentiment following the freight market’s lackluster performance over the same period, outlook seems to now be more optimistic (for 2026), even without proof from freight rates yet.
Owners look to take advantage of the ‘feel good’ vibes, on both the buying and selling side, and perhaps before any hire rate hikes.
Quite a few new sales candidates have hit the market, showing some Owners’ willingness to sell, although their intentions are not simply to satiate demand.
In some cases, sales candidates carry class renewals. And in other cases, Sellers may be hoping to ‘cash in’ on the positive sentiment or favourable competition that a handful of ships are garnering.
Furthermore, the strategy of selling ships in order to fuel fleet renewal continues to be at the forefront.
On the buying side, there seems to be appetite and intention to move on acquisitions. The rush on young, eco tonnage continues.
Some Owners of modern tonnage are willing to at least try to meet the demand, although their ships don’t/won’t come cheap.
In recent days/weeks, there’s also been a push for mid-aged Supra’s out of the F.E., between 10-15 yrs of age. There is no shortage of enquiries for older Handies, in many instances, for OHBS type vessels.
The Capesize ‘Frontier Kotobuki’ (175K DWT, 2011, Namura) was sold to Europeans for $31.5 mio with good surveys positions. The number is slightly soft when looking at the recent sale of the ‘KM Osaka; (180k DWT, blt 2012, concluded at
$34.5 mio.
The Ultramax ‘Elizabeth M II’ (63K DWT, 2020, Nantong Xiangyu) was sold for a market-level $30 mio.
The smaller Supramax ‘Syros Trader’ (53K DWT, 2008, Zhejiang) found Chinese suitors for $9 mio with surveys due this quarter. The number looks to be fitting given her survey position.
In Handy news, a couple of OHBS bulkers were reported sold at rational levels. The ‘TBC Praise’ (37K DWT, 2012, HMD) was concluded at around $14.4 mio, while the slightly older ‘Zimrida’ (37K DWT, 2008, Saiki) $11.4 mio with DD overdue. The ‘Bulker Bee 30’ (35K DWT, 2010, TK Hongnong) went for $11.3 mio with surveys due, the number surely reflecting the need to renew her certificates.
Sentiment has turned more optimistic, with Owners testing the market and buyers moving decisively on fleet renewal, particularly for young eco tonnage, even as freight rates have yet to confirm the recovery.
Baltic Indices 27TH January, 2026
Baltic Exchange Index – 27 January 2026
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 3215 (+ 589)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== ========
C2 170000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 11.575 + 1.075
C3 170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 23.950 + 1.975
C5 160-170000 mt W Australia to Qingdao 9.175 + 1.200
C7 160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 13.581 + 2.625
C8_182 182000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 17,813 + 10907
C9_182 182000mt Cont/Med Trip China/Japan 53,861 + 6767
C10_182 182000mt China/Japan T/P RV 24,823 + 5025
C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil or W.Africa RV 28,918 + 3275
C16_182 182000mt Far East – Atlantic BH 6,672 + 2236
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 17.090 + 1.337
========================================== ========
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 25,653 + 5339
5TC_182 Weighted Timecharter Average 29,156 + 5339
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 27 January 2026
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,625 (+ 13)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ========
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 14,427 + 352
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 21,873 – 12
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 13,227 – 2
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,316 – 6
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 15,629 + 105
====== ========================================
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 14,621 + 117
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ========
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 10,100 – 393
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 52.079 + 0.093
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 38.193 + 0.136
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 27 January 2026
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ==============================
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 10,100 -393
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 27 January 2026
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1039 (+ 4)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== =========================================
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 15,933 – 175
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 21,814 – 4
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 12,894 + 237
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 10,140 + 190
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 22,196 – 386
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 10,679 + 29
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 18,164 + 57
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 10,529 + 69
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 14,671 + 50
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 8,300 + 92
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 11,717 + 42
====== ========================================= =========
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 13,138 + 56
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 10,520 + 56
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 27 January 2026
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 12,894 +237
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 10,529 +69
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 8,300 +92
====== =============================== =======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 10,876 +146
Baltic Exchange Index – 27 January 2026 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 604 (+ 3)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== =========
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 6,950 + 7
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 8,429 + 22
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 17,456 + 245
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 16,150 + 50
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 10,119 + 25
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 9,356 + 43
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 8,613 + 150
====== =================================================
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 10,879 + 69
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2026
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