I learnt in Shipping over several decades, the industry flourishes on Calamities like famine, floods, closure of Canal’s, Straits etc.
For Historians – The Closure of Suez Canal was the biggest benefit to the Shipping industry in those days.
On 6th June 1967, after the start of the Six-Day War, Egypt closed the Suez Canal, which it owned and operated, and kept it closed until 5th June 1975, through most of the Israeli occupation of the Sinai Peninsula including the east bank of the Canal.
The Six-Day War had begun the day before the closure on 5th June 1967 between Israel and several Arab states including Egypt. Israel bombed most of Egypt’s airfields and then entered and occupied the Sinai Peninsula including the entire east bank of the Suez Canal.
The Suez Canal was therefore the frontline between the Israeli and Egyptian military forces. Israel built the Bar Lev Line of fortifications along the east bank of the canal.
In 1966, 60% of Italy’s, 39% of France’s, and 25% of Britain’s total oil consumption passed through the Suez Canal. This is where the Tanker Shipowners benefited for navigating the longer sea passages to deliver the Oil.
The prior 1956–57 closure
The Canal had been closed before, from October 1956 until March 1957 during the Suez Crisis, when Gamal Abdel Nasser, the leader of Egypt at the time, was aligning himself with the Soviet Union and he nationalized the Suez Canal, seizing it from French and British investors.
The War of Attrition 1967–70
President Nasser’s visit to the Suez front with Egypt’s top military commanders during the War of Attrition. Directly behind him is General Commander Mohamed Fawzi and to his left Chief of Staff Abdul Munim Riad, 16th November 1968.
Egypt waged a War of Attrition against the Israelis across the canal from 1967 to 1970, in coordination with activity by allies Jordan and the Palestine Liberation Organization.
Hostilities initially took the form of limited artillery duels and small-scale incursions into Sinai, but by 1969, the Egyptian Army judged itself prepared for larger-scale operations. On March 8, 1969, Nasser proclaimed the official launch of the War of Attrition, characterized by large-scale shelling along the Suez Canal, extensive aerial warfare and commando raids. Hostilities continued until August 1970 and ended with a ceasefire. The frontiers remained the same as when the war began, with no real commitment to serious peace negotiations.
Yom Kippur War
Egypt crossing the Suez Canal during the Yom Kippur War
In October 1973, Egypt began the Yom Kippur War with an attempt to take back the east bank of the canal and the entire Sinai Peninsula from the Israeli’s, by crossing the Suez Canal in Operation Badr. The attempt partly succeeded in that Egypt regained control of the east bank of the canal, but Israel retained control of the rest of the Sinai Peninsula.
Re-opening
President Anwar Sadat and Minister of Defence Ahmed Ismail re- opened the Canal at a ceremony on 5th June, 1975.
The canal opened again in a ceremony attended by Egyptian
President Anwar Sadat, senior members of the government and foreign after the 1974 Suez Canal Clearance Operation cleared the canal of mines and debris.
As we Head into 2026, one of the big questions on my mind is whether an economic reckoning is in store for the United States. The country, after all, has a “runaway debt problem,” as the economist Kenneth Rogoff explained last summer. In 2025, the U.S. national debt surpassed $38 billion; Washington now spends more money on servicing its debt than it does on defence. For years, debt enabled the United States “to fight wars, global recessions, pandemics, and financial crises,” Rogoff wrote. But the bill may soon come due. He makes a compelling case for why “the possibility of a once-in-a-century U.S. debt crisis no longer seems far-fetched”—and what it will take for the United States to avoid an economic meltdown.
Maduro Captured, Indicted After US Airstrikes on Venezuela
US forces captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife in an early morning raid, sending him to the US to face criminal charges following a series of airstrikes that mark an extraordinary escalation in the Trump administration’s months-long campaign against the country.
“The United States of America has successfully carried out a large-scale strike against Venezuela and its leader, President Nicolas Maduro, who has been, along with his wife, captured and flown out of the Country,” President Donald Trump wrote on social media Saturday.
US Attorney General Pam Bondi on X that Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, have been indicted, with the Venezuelan leader facing charges of “Narco-Terrorism Conspiracy, Cocaine Importation Conspiracy, Possession of Machineguns and Destructive Devices, and Conspiracy to Possess Machineguns and Destructive Devices against the United States.”
The US President said Maduro was on a US ship and being taken to New York.
Capturing Maduro marks an unprecedented intervention and a stunning fall for the Venezuelan leader who became president in 2013. The strikes prompted condemnations from Maduro supporters including Russia’s foreign ministry and Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who called for a United Nations Security Council meeting, while Trump allies including Argentina President Javier Milei the news.
The US President had also made reference to the country’s vast oil reserves.
He reiterated his interest in Venezuelan energy, saying that the US is going to be “strongly involved” in the country’s oil industry.
“What can I say we have the greatest oil companies in the world, the biggest, the greatest, and we’re going to be very much involved in it’.
‘Off Ramps’
Trump had offered Maduro “multiple off ramps” on the condition that “the drug trafficking must stop, and the stolen oil must be returned to the United States,” Vice President JD Vance said in a post on X. “Maduro is the newest person to find out that President Trump means what he says.” ‘Was there a private deal of Asylum etc before the action ?’
Some Democratic lawmakers took to social media to criticize the military operation before the capture of Maduro had been announced.
“This war is illegal, it’s embarrassing that we went from the world cop to the world bully in less than one year,” said Senator Ruben Gallego of Arizona. “There is no reason for us to be at war with Venezuela.”
“Is Venezuela the first country to face such actions whilst it could be Mexico, Argentina to follow and may be other’s too, if the US law permits such action.
Maduro is in US custody, on US soil.
‘Aggression’ Condemned
The Russian Foreign Ministry condemned the US’s “act of armed aggression against Venezuela,” saying that it’s important to avoid further escalation. In a social media post, Colombia’s Petro rejected “the aggression against the sovereignty of Venezuela and of Latin America.”
“Internal conflicts between peoples are resolved by those same peoples in peace,” he wrote. “That is the principle of the self-determination of peoples, which forms the foundation of the United Nations system.”
The Venezuelan government said military and civilian targets had been hit across three states, adding that this marked an attempt by the US to seize the country’s oil resources.
“We call upon the peoples and governments of Latin America, the Caribbean, and the world to mobilize in active solidarity in the face of this imperial aggression,” the government said.
US forces “turned off almost all of the lights in Caracas” and eventually stormed the home, he said, which included a hardened area encased in steel that Trump called a “safety space.”
Trump declined to identify the US military unit behind the operation provided the soldiers and said there were no fatalities, although some personnel were “hit” and one helicopter damaged.
“We have things that nobody even knows about, nobody even has a clue about. And we don’t want to talk about that,” he said.
Oil Infrastructure
Venezuela’s oil infrastructure wasn’t affected after the US airstrikes, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Jose port, Amuay refinery and oil areas in the Orinoco Belt are operational, said the people, who asked not to be identified discuss confidential information.
While few international companies operate in Venezuela because of US sanctions, Houston-is a major partner to the country’s state oil producer, under a special license from the Treasury Department. In a statement, Chevron said it’s focused on the safety of its Venezuela staff and the integrity of its assets.
While Venzuela has some of the world’s largest oil reserves, its role as a player in global markets has significantly declined following a precipitous output slump that began in 2015. It currently produces just shy of a million barrels a day — less than 1% of global output — most of which goes to China. Oil markets have been grappling with a hefty surplus that’s set to continue early this year, leaving room for the market to cope with any disruption to the country’s output.
Maduro received a high-level Chinese delegation in Caracas on Friday, including Special Representative of the Chinese Government on Latin American Affairs Qiu Xiaoqi. It is unclear if the diplomats remained in the country by the time of the attack.
Maduro’s departure could become a turning point for Venezuela and its people, who have spent years trying to oust him through elections widely disputed and marred by allegations of fraud and repression.
First visuals have emerged showing Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro inside a US Drug Enforcement Administration office in New York.
Venezuela, where residents remain on high alert, stocking up on food and fuel amid fears of further instability. International reactions remain sharply divided, with some leaders welcoming the development and others warning it sets a dangerous precedent under international law.
Opposition in Focus
Attention now turns to opposition leader María Corina Machado, who is in an unknown location, and to her stand-in candidate in the 2024 presidential elections, Edmundo González, widely seen as the winner based on a parallel vote count and currently exiled in Spain.
After her delayed appearance in Oslo to collect the Nobel Peace Prize in mid-December, Machado said she would return to hiding in Venezuela.
Seizing Maduro after a series of airstrikes also stands in contrast to Trump’s repeated promise to end wars and not to start any new ones. The first 11 months of his term have seen the US carry out attacks against Iran, the Houthis in Yemen, and suspected Islamic State targets in Nigeria and Syria.
Trump had warned against such attacks, telling an audience in Saudi Arabia that “interventionists were intervening in complex societies that they did not even understand themselves.”
“In recent years, far too many American Presidents have been afflicted with the notion that it’s our job to look into the souls of foreign leaders and use US policy to dispense justice for their sins,” he said at the time.
“After Venezuela operation, Trump signals possible action against Mexico, Cuba and Colombia of possible US action following Venezuela military operation.
- A very strong and loud message to the world and world leaders unless it was staged and a plea bargain struck with Maduro, the latter seems more likely for some reason. DJT needed a win ’´±’ç_ and also needs the Nobel Peace Prize, and control on the oil and gold without paying for it nor lending money to a nation like the Chinese have done. This operation looks too smooth for comfort.
https://www.counterpunch.org/2026/01/03/trumps-contempt-for-the- constitution/
Trump campaigned for President on an “America First” platform. He claimed to be the “peace candidate.” At a time when 60% of Americans live pay-check to pay-check, when their healthcare system is collapsing, when people cannot afford housing and when AI threatens millions of jobs, it is time for the President to focus on the crises facing this country and end this military adventurism abroad.
Is Trump is failing in his job to “run” the United States. In these conditions should He be trying to “run” Venezuela, to show the world the US won.
Interesting narration:
The real reason the US is invading Venezuela goes back to a deal Henry Kissinger made with Saudi Arabia in 1974.
And I’m going to explain why this is actually about the SURVIVAL of the US dollar itself.
Not drugs. Not terrorism. Not “democracy.”
This is about the petrodollar system that has kept America the dominant economic power for 50 years. And Venezuela just threatened to end it.
Here’s what really just happened:
Venezuela has 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves. The largest on Earth. (See Chart below)
More than Saudi Arabia. 20% of the entire world’s oil.
But here’s the part that matters:
Venezuela was actively selling that oil in Chinese yuan. Not dollars. In 2018, Venezuela announced it would “free itself from the dollar.” They started accepting yuan, euros, roubles, anything BUT dollars for oil.
They were petitioning to join BRICS. They were building direct payment channels with China that bypass SWIFT entirely. And they were sitting on enough oil to fund de-dollarization for decades.
Why does this matter?
Because the entire American financial system is built on one thing:
The petrodollar.
In 1974, Henry Kissinger made a deal with Saudi Arabia:
All oil sold globally must be priced in US dollars. In exchange, America provides military protection. This single agreement created artificial demand for dollars worldwide. Every country on Earth needs dollars to buy oil. This lets America print unlimited money while other countries work for it. It funds the military. The welfare state. The deficit spending.
The petrodollar is more important to US hegemony than aircraft carriers. And there’s a pattern of what happens to leaders who challenge it:
- 2000: Saddam Hussein announces Iraq will sell oil in euros instead of dollars.
- 2003: Invaded. Regime change. Iraq’s oil immediately switched back to dollars. Saddam lynched.
The Weapons of Mass Destruction! were never found because they never existed.
- 2009: Gaddafi proposes a gold-backed African currency called the “gold dinar” for oil trade.
Hillary Clinton’s own leaked emails confirm this was the PRIMARY reason for intervention.
Email quote: “This gold was intended to establish a pan-African currency based on the Libyan golden Dinar.”
- 2011: NATO bombs Libya. Gaddafi sodomized and murdered. Libya now has open slave markets.
“We came, we saw, he died!” Clinton laughed on camera. The gold dinar died with him.
And now Maduro.
With FIVE TIMES more oil than Saddam and Gaddafi combined. Actively selling in yuan. Building payment systems outside dollar control.
Petitioning to join BRICS. Partnered with China, Russia, and Iran. The three countries leading global de-dollarization.
This isn’t coincidence.
Challenge the petrodollar. Get regime changed. Every. Single. Time.
Stephen Miller (US homeland security advisor) literally said it out loud two weeks ago:
“American sweat, ingenuity and toil created the oil industry in Venezuela. Its tyrannical expropriation was the largest recorded theft of American wealth and property.”
He’s not hiding it.
Venezuela is 60 Billion Dollars in Debt to China. How do they pay back China? By Cheap Oil. This attack on Venezuela is a direct hit on China by the U.S. where it hurts China. This attack on Maduro is not about Drugs.
They’re claiming Venezuelan oil BELONGS to America because US companies developed it 100 years ago (before Pres Trump was born). By this logic, every nationalized resource in history was “theft.”
But here’s the DEEPER problem: The petrodollar is already dying.
Russia sells oil in roubles and yuan since Ukraine. Saudi Arabia is openly discussing yuan settlements. Iran has been trading in non-dollar currencies for years. China built CIPS, their own alternative to SWIFT with 4,800 banks in 185 countries.
BRICS is actively building payment systems that bypass the dollar entirely. The mBridge project lets central banks settle trades instantly in local currencies.
Venezuela joining BRICS with 303 billion barrels of oil would accelerate this exponentially.
That’s what this invasion is really about.
Not stopping drugs. Venezuela accounts for less than 1% of US cocaine.
Not terrorism. There’s zero evidence Maduro runs a “terror organization.”
Not democracy. The US supports Saudi Arabia, which has zero elections.
This is about maintaining a 50-year-old agreement that lets America print money while the world works for it.
And the consequences are terrifying:
Russia, China, and Iran are already denouncing this as “armed aggression.”. China is Venezuela’s biggest oil customer. They’re losing billions.
BRICS nations are watching a country get invaded for trading outside the dollar. Every nation considering de-dollarization just got the message:
Challenge the dollar and we will bomb you. But here’s the problem…
That message might accelerate de-dollarization, not stop it.
Because now every country in the Global South knows what happens if you threaten dollar hegemony.
And they’re realizing the only protection is to move FASTER.
The timing is insane too:
January 3rd, 2026. Venezuela invaded. Maduro captured. January 3rd, 1990. Panama invaded. Noriega captured.
36 years apart. Almost to the day.
Same playbook. Same “drug trafficking” excuse.
Same real reason: control of strategic resources and trade routes.
History doesn’t repeat. But it rhymes.
What happens next:
Trump’s press conference at Mar-a-Lago sets the narrative.
US oil companies are already lined up. Politico reported they’ve been approached about “returning to Venezuela.”
The opposition will be installed. Oil will flow in dollars again.
Donald Trump won’t rule out the use of military force to acquire Greenland, the White House said. Earlier, European leaders closed ranks behind Denmark, warning that existing borders were non- negotiable and arguing Arctic security must be achieved through NATO. The US president has long said he wants to take control of Greenland, the world’s biggest island and a self-ruling territory of Denmark.
Venezuela becomes another Iraq. Another Libya. But here’s what nobody’s asking:
What happens when you can no longer bomb your way to dollar dominance?
When China has enough economic leverage to retaliate?
When BRICS controls 40% of global GDP and says “no more dollars”? When the world realizes the petrodollar is maintained by violence?
America just showed its hand.
The question is whether the rest of the world folds or calls the bluff.
Because this invasion is an admission that the dollar can no longer compete on its own merits.
When you have to bomb countries to keep them using your currency, the currency is already dying.
Venezuela isn’t the beginning.
It’s the desperate end…
What will stop China to do the same over Taiwan? Trump on Colombia
Trump also turned his criticism towards Colombia and its President, Gustavo Petro. He alleged that the country was home to multiple large cocaine production facilities and accused Colombian authorities of allowing drugs to flow into the U.S. So, the President has to watch his back, Trump said.
· “It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future.” Yogi Berra was right about this. What to watch and What to expect from the economy in 2026.
President Donald Trump’s boundary-pushing presidency was one of the defining factors of 2025—especially when it came to the economy.
Between tariffs, individual deals with companies and close public relationships with many of the country’s top executives, Trump’s hand was very visible. How these relationships evolve and how the presidency and the structure of American government change further will be one of the biggest stories of 2026.
But perhaps the main issue looming over the economy is the bubble question:
Were the economic gains of 2025 real, and will they persist into 2026? Or
Were they the result of irrational exuberance and inflated expectations that will come crashing back to Earth?
Much of this depends on the evolution of Artificial Intelligence and its integration into the economy, our lives and workplaces. If AI doesn’t deliver on its promise, the fallout could define this year.
· The De-population Panic
What Demographic Decline Really Means for the World
The Population Bomb, threatened to jeopardize life on Earth. Contrary to Ehrlich’s predictions1968 bestseller, had argued that the staggering growth of the human species, humanity would not self-destruct by overusing the planet’s resources. Instead, it is believed that humans would innovate their way out of scarcity. Human ingenuity, was “the ultimate resource.”
· Cuba on the Brink
Where Will the Island’s Crisis End?
In 2014, after the Obama administration and Cuba’s government announced an agreement to restore diplomatic ties, the world descended on Havana. Everyone from the Rolling Stones to would-be investors rushed to claim a stake in the island’s future. Raúl Castro, the long-serving minister of defence, had assumed power from his ailing elder brother Fidel several years earlier and launched moderate economic reforms: allowing for more small private businesses, loosening rules for foreign investments, and downsizing the state’s payroll.
- Israel stands today at five decisive junctions: Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, Iran, and the future structure of the U.S.– Israel alliance. Each one demands clarity, not slogans. First: Gaza.
Israel cannot move forward while Hamas still exists, armed, empowered, and dreaming of the next October 7. Hamas and Islamic Jihad are not “governing bodies.” They are jihadist armies. There can be no Phase B, no “day after,” without the return of the body of Ran Gueli and the complete disarmament of Hamas.
Anything less is surrender disguised as diplomacy. If Hamas refuses, Israel must retain full freedom of action to finish the job.
The 2025 annual reviews are coming in thick and fast. We prefer to discuss two:
One about events, by Gideon Rachman in the Financial Times, and the other about markets, by Russ Mould in the Telegraph.
Rachman’s chronological round-up of 2025 geopolitics is dominated by the return of Donald Trump to the White House and starts with JD Vance’s address to the Munich Security Conference on February 14.
It may have been Valentine’s Day but there was not a lot of love in his criticism of Europe that revealed a deep split in the western alliance. He harshly and controversially stated that alleged anti-democratic tendencies of the likes of Britain and Germany are more of a threat to freedom in Europe than Russian aggression.
This was followed by Zelensky’s televised dressing-down in the Oval Office on February 28, hinting that the US was on the verge of abandoning Ukraine and leaving Europe to sort out the near four-year conflict.
In this respect, the US ceased all direct military and financial aid to Ukraine since Trump took office back in January.
April 2 was ‘Liberation Day’ that saw the US impose tariffs on the whole world, friend and foe alike, but the negative reaction of the bond markets caused the tariff regime to be delayed and modified.
A four-day conflict in May between India and Pakistan put the world on nuclear alert, but was thankfully defused, with the White House taking unwarranted credit, followed recently by China wanting to take the credit.
The US-Israeli bombing of Iran’s nuclear facilities in June shocked the whole world, not least Americans, that had taken at face value a WH manifesto pledge to avoid overseas conflict and focus on domestic issues. It seems that the inflicted damage on Iran was overstated.
A 20-point Gaza peace plan was agreed at the end of September but has yet to get beyond phase one as Hamas refuses to disarm and the IDF refuses to leave the enclave.
Trump and Xi met on October 30 in Seoul to hold talks on de-escalating the US-China trade war. It soon became clear that China’s grip over the global supply and processing of rare earths and critical minerals would force the US to scale back its tariffs. The rare earths card can be played at any time and it hands China a significant advantage in the US-China rivalry.
During the year it dawned on us that not all strongmen are free from being held to account. The ex-PI president Duterte was arrested in March for his war on drugs and will face trial at the ICC in the Hague while ex-Brazil president Bolsonaro was imprisoned in late November for his role in an attempted coup.
The ICC also announced that it will investigate possible war crimes committed by the Rapid Support Forces militia in the Sudanese town of El-Fasher in October.
Finally, in December, the Department of Justice began the staggered release of the Epstein files once it became clear that Congress would compel it to do so. Heavy redactions and obvious omissions have led to familiar cries of cover-up and Rachman speculates that this might be Trump’s Watergate moment.
Mould outlines five trends that defined markets in 2025.
First, April’s Liberation Day, the response to which was a brief bout of
volatility after which things settled down, and the sky did not fall in.
Markets seem to be comfortable that the hit to growth, global trade flows and corporate margins will be modest at best. American voters, grumbling about rising food prices all year, were ignored.
Second, emerging markets roared back having been quicker to quell inflation and lower debt-to-GDP ratios. There is scope for monetary stimulus while a weaker dollar reduces dollar debt servicing and boosts commodity prices and emerging market equities.
Third, fixed income is back in favour. Bonds welcomed cooler inflation and interest rate cuts and look forward to more of the same in 2026. But bond vigilantes are watching absolute levels of government borrowing in the West with growing concern, and this could yet be a problem for sovereign bonds.
Fourth, despite wars in Eastern Europe and the Middle East, and sanctions against the RIV three, oil prices continue to slide on large surplus supply. This has helped to tame inflation and pacify the consumer cohort.
Fifth, is the strength of gold and silver, until this week, and year-end weakness in crypto, striking discordant notes that hint of trouble ahead. Gold and silver could fall further in 2026 if equities benefit from cooling inflation, lower interest rates and steady economic growth. Equally, if central banks fail to manage inflation, by keeping rates low to salve government debt management and interest rate bills, then they will rebound.
The S&P 500 rose 17% in 2025, a 4th year of double-digit gains, beaten by the FTSE 100 at 20%, after the Mag 7 retreated from lofty highs, both outshone by the Hang Seng which gained 29%.
In bulk shipping markets, the largest wet and dry ships did best with a modern scrubber-fitted VLCC averaging $63,200 daily on the spot market in 2025, up 39% on $45,400 in 2024.
A modern S-F 180,000-dwt cape averaged $23,500 on the spot market in 2025, down 20% on $29,300 in 2024, leaving room for improvement in 2026.
Finally, Marjorie Taylor Greene, having dramatically turned on Trump, claims he’ll stop at nothing to stay on beyond his 2nd term: “…what do you do when you really lose power, when you become a lame duck?
How do you cling to power?
You go to war.”
Happy New Year.
The US Dollar fell 10% against a basket of major currencies in 2025 with similar dollar losses predicted in 2026 if the Fed (and a likely new chair) finds conditions suitable for further rate cuts that would risk igniting already persistent inflation.
- Crude Imports of India from U.S. up 92% in first 8 months of FY’26, compared with the same period in 2024, with Russia remaining the biggest supplier of the product between April and November, 2025. As per Ministry of Commerce and Industry, India imported 178.1 mio tonnes of crude between April and November, 2025, of which 60 mio tonnes came from Russia and 13 mio tonnes from the U.S.
Apart from Russia and the U.S., Iraq, Saudi Arabia, U.A.E., Nigeria and Kuwait are the biggest exporters of crude oil to India. India imported 7.7 mio tonnes of Crude oil from Russia in November, 2025 compared to 7.2 mio tonnes in the same month last year, a month-on-month increase of 6.8%. During the same month, India’s imports of Oil from the U.S. increased from 1.1 mio tonnes in 2024 to 2.8 mio tonnes in 2025, registering a growth of 144%.
- Venezuela Highlights: ‘Run by a sick man’
— Trump threatens military operation against Colombia
Venezuela Highlights: Delcy Rodriguez recognised as acting president of Venezuela. JD Vance pushed back on criticism over Venezuelan strikes. China urged United States to ‘immediately release’ Nicolas Maduro. Stay tuned to this LIVE blog for all the latest updates on US strikes in Venezuela.
A video posted by the White House’s Rapid Response 47 account on X showed Maduro being walked in custody down a hallway at the offices of the US Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) in New York City.
Who will rule Venezuela now?
Meanwhile, Venezuelan Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has been declared Maduro’s apparent successor. In an address on state television, Rodríguez said Maduro is the country’s only president, as she called for his release from the US’ custody. This comes even as
US President Donald Trump said, “We will run the country until such time as we can do a safe, proper and judicious transition.”
During a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida, Trump was quoted by Reuters as saying that as part of the takeover, major US oil companies would move into Venezuela, which has the world’s largest oil reserves, and refurbish badly degraded oil infrastructure, a process experts said could take years.
- Prosecutors say Nicolás Maduro is the kingpin of a cartel of Venezuelan political and military officials who have conspired for decades with drug trafficking groups and US-designated terrorist organisations to flood the America with thousands of tonnes of cocaine.
As Reuters reports, Maduro was first indicted in 2020 as part of a long-running narcotics trafficking case against current and former Venezuelan officials and Colombian guerrillas.
In a new indictment unsealed Saturday, prosecutors allege that Maduro personally oversaw a state-sponsored cocaine trafficking network that partnered with some of the world’s most violent and prolific drug trafficking groups, including Mexico’s Sinaloa and Zetas cartels, the Colombian paramilitary group FARC and the Venezuelan gang Tren de Aragua.
Maduro is charged with narco-terrorism, cocaine importation conspiracy, possession of machine guns and destructive devices, and conspiracy to possess machine guns and destructive devices. He faces decades to life in prison on each count if convicted.
Legal experts said prosecutors face a difficult task, needing to show evidence of Maduro’s direct involvement in drug trafficking to secure a conviction. Maduro has denied wrongdoing, and it could be several months before he stands trial. Reported by The Guardian.
- Trump sees oil bonanza in Venezuela, yet hurdles remain
For much of the past year, Washington framed its pressure campaign against Venezuela as a crackdown on narcotics trafficking. Following the sudden U.S. operation to remove President Nicolás Maduro, the emphasis has shifted toward energy: specifically, opening the door for American oil companies to tap one of the world’s largest crude reserves.
Speaking at Mar-a-Lago after the surprise military action early Saturday, President Donald Trump said the operation would allow
U.S. energy firms to reestablish a presence in Venezuela’s long- neglected oil sector.
“We’re going to have our very large United States oil companies, the biggest anywhere in the world, go in, spend billions of dollars, fix the badly broken infrastructure, the oil infrastructure, and start making money for the country,” he said.
Turning that vision into reality, however, could prove difficult. Chevron (CVX) remains the only major U.S. oil company still operating in Venezuela and is currently the country’s largest foreign investor. Other companies are expected to proceed cautiously as they assess political stability in a nation whose energy industry has deteriorated after decades of mismanagement, corruption and state interference.
Ample supplies of crude
Market conditions also complicate Trump’s plan. Global oil markets are already well supplied, and U.S. crude prices remain below $60 a barrel. Those levels limit the appetite for large, high-risk investments. With global output projected to keep rising this year, producers have other, less uncertain options.
Former Chevron (CVX) executive Ali Moshiri noted that price dynamics alone make Venezuela a hard sell for investors, particularly when compared with lower-risk opportunities closer to home, The Wall Street Journal reported. Capital, he told the newspaper, will naturally gravitate toward regions offering clearer returns and regulatory certainty.
The administration hasn’t yet outlined how it would facilitate a broader return of American oil companies. Industry observers say Washington could oversee a bidding process for oil and gas blocks, though questions remain over whether non-U.S. firms, including European companies, would be allowed to participate.
Chevron (CVX) said Saturday that its immediate focus is on employee safety and protecting its assets. The company and its joint ventures employ roughly 3,000 people in Venezuela.
Degraded energy infrastructure
So far this year, Venezuela has produced about 900,000 barrels of oil a day, with Chevron (CVX) accounting for roughly one-third of that output. Much of the country’s crude is heavy and viscous, a grade prized by refiners in the U.S. Gulf Coast, China and India because it can generate higher margins than lighter blends.
While the U.S. shale boom has driven domestic production to record levels, American producers primarily extract lighter oil that is less suitable for certain refining processes. Venezuela’s heavy crude, along with similar grades from Canada and Mexico, remains strategically valuable. The Venezuelan government claims its proven reserves exceed 300 billion barrels, which would make them the largest in the world if verified.
Venezuela’s history of theft
Still, oil companies considering a return are likely to take time. Venezuela has a long history of expropriating foreign assets, including waves of nationalizations in the 1970s and again under former President Hugo Chávez in the 2000s.
ConocoPhillips (COP) and Exxon Mobil (XOM) exited Venezuela in 2007 after their assets were seized. Both companies pursued lengthy arbitration cases, seeking billions of dollars in compensation, though final awards covered only a portion of their claimed losses. Neither company immediately responded to requests for comment.
Legal and political uncertainty remains a central concern. José Ignacio Hernández, a law professor and consultant, said that while Venezuela’s resource base is undeniably attractive, companies will not return without durable political and institutional guarantees, the Journal reported.
Economist Orlando Ochoa, a Caracas-based analyst and visiting fellow at the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies, told the newspaper that rebuilding the energy sector would be a monumental task. Years of authoritarian rule have driven tens of thousands of skilled workers out of the country, hollowing out operational expertise.
Reviving the industry, he said, would require a broad economic stabilization strategy, including access to multilateral financing to repair infrastructure, legal reforms to limit state interference, debt restructuring on roughly $160 billion in obligations, and the resolution of outstanding arbitration claims.
The United States needs to implement a form of a Marshall Plan, Ochoa said, referring to the postwar program that rebuilt Europe.
Now the real work begins
One U.S. oil executive with extensive experience in Venezuela said the removal of Maduro may prove to be the simplest phase of the effort. Establishing a transitional government capable of ensuring security, contract enforcement and long-term stability remains an open question, the executive said.
As uncertainty swirled Saturday over how Venezuela would be governed and what role Washington would ultimately play, Trump repeatedly returned to the subject of oil.
“We are going to be taking out a tremendous amount of wealth out of the ground,” Trump said. He added that the U.S. would retain some of the proceeds “in the form of reimbursement for the damages caused us by that country.”
The comments underscored a view Trump has expressed for years: energy resources can function as both an economic prize and a strategic lever of American power. During past conflicts in Syria, Libya and Iraq, Trump argued that the U.S. should have claimed oil assets to offset military costs or blunt rival influence.
“It used to be to the victor belong the spoils,” Trump said in a 2016 presidential forum. “Now, there was no victor there [in Iraq], believe me. There was no victor. But I always said: Take the oil.”
Baltic Shipping Report 6th January, 2026 Baltic Forward Assessments :
BFA CAPESIZE
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
Jan 26 20,468 $/day 636 ↑
Feb 26 16,625 $/day 286 ↑
Mar 26 21,307 $/day 500 ↑
Apr 26 23,393 $/day 400 ↑
May 26 24,393 $/day 314 ↑
Jun 26 25,086 $/day 279 ↑
Q1 26 19,467 $/day 474 ↑
Q2 26 24,290 $/day 331 ↑
Q3 26 25,771 $/day 121 ↑
Q4 26 26,189 $/day 60 ↑
Q1 27 17,089 $/day 128 ↑
Q2 27 22,825 $/day 68 ↑
Cal 27 22,807 $/day 136 ↑
Cal 28 21,275 $/day 54 ↑
Cal 29 20,064 $/day 46 ↑
Cal 30 19,043 $/day 0 →
Cal 31 18,861 $/day 4 ↑
Cal 32 18,729 $/day 4 ↑
Cal 33 18,714 $/day 3 ↑
BFA PANAMAX 82
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
Jan 26 12,025 $/day 135 ↑
Feb 26 12,004 $/day 197 ↑
Mar 26 15,022 $/day 222 ↑
Apr 26 15,432 $/day 289 ↑
May 26 15,468 $/day 268 ↑
Jun 26 15,243 $/day 250 ↑
Q1 26 13,017 $/day 185 ↑
Q2 26 15,381 $/day 269 ↑
Q3 26 14,729 $/day 120 ↑
Q4 26 14,322 $/day 179 ↑
Q1 27 12,300 $/day 56 ↑
Q2 27 13,597 $/day 78 ↑
Cal 27 13,307 $/day 75 ↑
Cal 28 13,157 $/day 50 ↑
Cal 29 13,150 $/day 35 ↑
Cal 30 12,985 $/day 37 ↑
Cal 31 12,833 $/day 10 ↑
Cal 32 12,833 $/day 12 ↑
Cal 33 12,805 $/day 3 ↑
BFA SUPRAMAX 63
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
Jan 26 12,509 $/day 25 ↑
Feb 26 12,255 $/day 175 ↑
Mar 26 15,338 $/day 229 ↑
Apr 26 15,738 $/day 240 ↑
May 26 15,745 $/day 243 ↑
Jun 26 15,673 $/day 296 ↑
Q1 26 13,367 $/day 143 ↑
Q2 26 15,718 $/day 259 ↑
Q3 26 15,288 $/day 147 ↑
Q4 26 14,916 $/day 107 ↑
Q1 27 13,170 $/day 54 ↑
Q2 27 14,263 $/day 54 ↑
Cal 27 13,984 $/day 129 ↑
Cal 28 13,898 $/day 57 ↑
Cal 29 13,852 $/day 22 ↑
Cal 30 13,683 $/day 13 ↑
Cal 31 13,677 $/day 9 ↑
Cal 32 13,545 $/day 4 ↑
Cal 33 13,535 $/day 1 ↑
BFA SUPRAMAX 58
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
Jan 26 10,475 $/day 25 ↑
Feb 26 10,221 $/day 175 ↑
Mar 26 13,304 $/day 229 ↑
Apr 26 13,704 $/day 240 ↑
May 26 13,711 $/day 243 ↑
Jun 26 13,639 $/day
BALTIC INDICES 06/01/2026
DRY INDEX: 1830 (- 21)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 3016 (- 33)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1304 (+11)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 1011 (- 32)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 639 (- 21)
BCI 182 TC AVG $/DAY 27357 (- 295)
BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 11736 (+ 96)
BSI TC AVG $/DAY 12780 (- 409)
BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 11501 (- 373
TIMECHARTER
‘XH Hope’ 2022 84998 dwt dely Tachibana 6 Jan trip via Australia redel Japan $12,000 – Jera
‘Lady J’ 2023 82373 dwt dely US East Coast 10/19 Jan trip redel India $18,250 – Oldendorff
‘Jag Ajay’ 2016 82094 dwt dely Rotterdam 7 Jan trip via US East Coast redel India $19,500 – Trafigura
‘Xing Chang Hai’ 2018 81824 dwt dely Yeosu 7 Jan trip via EC Australia redel Japan $12,000
‘Panagia Force’ 2007 81791 dwt dely Tuticorin 30 Dec trip via East Coast South America redel Singapore-Japan $11,500 – ECTP
‘Mercury Rising’ 2015 81027 dwt dely Ijmuiden 28 Dec trip via US Gulf redel Rotterdam $12,250 – Olam
‘Ares’ 2026 64100 dwt dely passing Busan prompt trip via NoPac redel SE Asia $11,000 – Norden
‘Arabella’ 2015 63619 dwt dely Rio Grande prompt trip redel SE Asia $14,000 + $400,000bb – Reachy
‘Kiran Australia’ 2013 63478 dwt dely Bahodopi 5/6 Jan trip via Indonesia redel WC India $11,000
‘Boliche’ 2020 62534 dwt dely Recalada prompt trip redel Chile $27,000 – Norden
‘Stinger’ 2015 38629 dwt dely San Lorenzo prompt trip redel Salvador-Fortaleza intention grains $19,500 – Lauritzen
‘Ipswich Bay’ 2014 38190 dwt dely Nola prompt trip redel Chile $15,500
‘Luna Star 1’ 2015 37614 dwt dely Morocco 10 Jan onwards trip redel US Gulf intention barytes $8,000 – Centurion
‘Alinda’ 2012 35075 dwt dely Miss River prompt trip redel Turkey intention grains $14,750 – Pioneer Nav
‘V Pegasus’ 2008 33248 dwt dely passing Singapore prompt trip via Port Lincoln redel Gresik – Singapore intention grains $8,750 – Oldendorff
‘CH Clare’ 2010 33144 dwt dely Shihu prompt trip via Bontang redel Lugait intention coal $7,000 – Pacific Basin
‘IC Progress’ 2011 32527 dwt dely EC South America prompt trip redel Morocco $13,000 – Cobelfret
VOYAGES ORE
‘TBN’ 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 20/22 Jan $8.10 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc
‘Prometheus’ 2024 170000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 24/30 Jan $22.35 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – Pan Ocean
‘TBN ‘ 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 19/21 Jan $8.30 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – FMG
Baltic Exchange Index – 06 JANUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 3016 (- 33)
Route Description Value($) Change
C2 170000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 13.306 + 0.018
C3 170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 22.200 + 0.264
C5 160-170000 mt W Australia to Qingdao 8.130 – 0.170
C7 160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 14.719 0.000
C8_182 182000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 34,050 – 231
C9_182 182000mt Cont/Med Trip China/Japan 52,861 – 195
C10_182 182000mt China/Japan T/P RV 20,582 – 963
C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil or W.Africa RV 26,436 + 422
C16_182 182000mt Far East – Atlantic BH 14,633 – 39
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 16.335 + 0.080
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 23,854 – 295
5TC_182 Weighted Timecharter Average 27,357 – 295
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 06 January 2026
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 8,394 +655
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 06 JANUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,304 (+ 11)
Route Description Value ($) Change
=================================
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 12,186 – 155
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 17,486 – 93
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 10,464 + 403
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 7,353 + 40
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 11,965 + 131
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 11,736 + 96
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
=================================
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 8,394 + 655
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 47.207 – 0.093
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 32.580 + 0.037
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 06 JANUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1011 (- 32)
Route Description Value ($) Change
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 17,317 – 208
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 20,664 – 482
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 10,019 – 419
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 10,100 – 700
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 20,521 – 525
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 10,696 – 290
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 18,807 – 147
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 10,529 – 525
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 15,836 – 203
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 8,188 – 481
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 12,550 – 146
=====================================
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 12,780 – 409
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 10,746 – 409
Baltic Exchange Index – 06 JANUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 639 (- 21)
Route Description Value ($) Change
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 8,436 – 414
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 10,207 – 672
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 16,911 – 622
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 16,429 – 871
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 10,419 – 50
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 9,938 – 150
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 9,319 – 106
=====================================
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 11,501 – 373
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2025
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