- Minneapolis Protests: President Trump on Thursday threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to quell protests in Minneapolis after an Immigration and Customs Enforcement agent killed a woman in the city last week. The president, who has previously threatened to invoke the 1807 act, said he would do so “if the corrupt politicians of Minnesota don’t obey the law and stop the professional agitators and insurrectionists from attacking the Patriots of I.C.E.”
Hours before President Trump threatened to invoke the Insurrection Act to quell protests in Minneapolis, Deputy Attorney General Todd Blanche posted on social media about the opposition to immigration raids in the state, referring to it as a “Minnesota insurrection” that was “a direct result of a FAILED governor and a TERRIBLE mayor encouraging violence against law enforcement.” The Minneapolis mayor, Jacob Frey, has been begging for ICE to leave the city, saying it’s been overrun by agents who outnumber local police forces.
The great and the good of the Brussels bubble gathered in the cavernous hall of the European Council building last night for a New Year’s reception. The message from Ursula von der Leyen was clear, if all-too familiar.
Europe must “make much better use of the power that comes from our massive single market,” the Commission president told dignitaries, ambassadors and senior officials from EU institutions. “We want our companies to find the best conditions to grow right here in Europe.”
It’s a mammoth task and one that has eluded a whole generation of politicians. A new article by the European Central Bank is testimony to that failure and makes for sobering reading. It found that trade frictions across the EU are more onerous than the highest tariff US President Donald Trump threatened to slap on the bloc last year.
Barriers such as differences in national rules and regulations, cumbersome administrative procedures and anti-competitive practices generate costs equivalent to levies of 67% for goods and 95% for services
- Greenland’s future
Yesterday, the foreign ministers of Denmark and Greenland met behind closed doors with the American vice president and the secretary of state. Afterward, the Europeans described a “fundamental disagreement” over what the future of Greenland should be. President Trump keeps insisting the United States should take over the island, and they’re not interested.
Lars Lokke Rasmussen, the Danish foreign minister, told reporters he hoped the three governments could lower the temperature on the debate. “This is actually the very first time where we could sit down at a top political level to discuss it,” he said. He said he understood Trump’s view that Greenland’s future lies with America — or China or Russia. “We share, to some extent, his concerns,” he said. “There’s definitely a new security situation in the Arctic and the High North.”
That morning, the White House had posted a cartoon on X showing Greenland’s supposed paths:
Arab governments believe US-Iran tension ‘de-escalated’
· Washington announces new sanctions on Islamic Republic as military personnel and aircraft carrier movements keep region on the edge.
Intense diplomatic efforts to dissuade Donald Trump from striking Iran, including communication between the Islamic republic and the US administration, have de-escalated tensions in the Gulf, according to three people close to Arab governments. Regional states including Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have been urging restraint on the Trump administration, warning of the potential damage to Iran’s neighbours in the event of a US strike on the Iranian regime, including higher global oil and gas prices. “Things have de-escalated for now,” said one Arab official. “The US is giving time for talks with Iran and to see where they go from here.”
Communication between the US and the Islamic republic allowed Iranian officials to assure Trump that there would be no executions of protesters and the death toll was not as high as was being reported outside the country. The official said hopes were now growing that the communication between Tehran and Washington, some of which may have been assisted by a third party such as Russia or Oman, could develop into further talks in the coming days. Tensions had soared over the past couple of days after Trump on Tuesday suggested US action against the regime by posting on social media that “HELP IS ON ITS WAY” as Iranian demonstrators faced a harsh crackdown by the regime.
Amnesty International said the Iranian authorities had committed “mass unlawful killings on an unprecedented scale” to crush the mostly peaceful protests that broke out in late December, with the death toll rising to 2,000 by
“official admission”. The US on Thursday announced new sanctions against Iranian regime leaders they said were involved in orchestrating the crackdown, as well as individuals and entities they accused of laundering Iran’s oil revenues. Among the 18 people and entities under sanction were Ali Larijani, secretary of the Supreme Council for National Security, who Washington said was one of the first Iranian leaders to call for violence to suppress the protesters. The US also placed provincial commanders from Iran’s paramilitary Revolutionary Guards under sanction. “Our message to the Iranian people is clear. Your demands are legitimate,” said US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent in a video message. “You are protesting for a noble cause and the United States supports you and your efforts.” He said the administration’s message to Iran’s leadership was that “there’s still time, if you choose to join us. As President Trump has said, stop the violence and stand with the people of Iran.”
But the US President wanted a “snappy, defined outcome”, as achieved by his military intervention in Venezuela.
· Bulkers ride China’s bauxite surge
China has set yet another record for bauxite imports, cementing the aluminium raw material as one of the strongest dry bulk growth stories of recent years and a rare source of support for large bulk carrier demand.
Bauxite discharges into Chinese ports reached about 213m tonnes in 2025, up 25% year on year from 171.1m tonnes in 2024, according to vessel-tracking data compiled by Ursa Shipbrokers. It marks the fourth consecutive annual record since 2022.
The surge in Chinese demand has driven global growth as well. Worldwide bauxite discharges reached an estimated 241.4m tonnes in 2025, a 21% increase on the year, lifting bauxite’s share of global dry bulk tonne-mile demand to just under 9%, up from 7% a year earlier and barely above 2% less than a decade ago.
China absorbed an estimated 88% of all ocean-traded bauxite last year, the highest share seen in at least the past decade.
Signal Ocean data tells a similar story, showing seaborne bauxite flows rising 18% year-on-year to around 257m tonnes, with China increasing its share of total imports from 83% to 85%.
Supply remains heavily concentrated in West Africa. Guinea accounted for roughly 72% of global bauxite discharges in 2025 and supplied about three-quarters of China’s imports, with cargoes largely loading at Kamsar and Boffa. Voyages from Kamsar to Qingdao span more than 11,400 nautical miles, keeping tonne-mile demand elevated and favouring larger ships.
That dynamic has fed directly into fleet utilisation. Newcastlemaxes carried about 36% of global bauxite discharges in 2025, followed by capesizes at 28% and post- panamax tonnage at 16%, giving the three largest segments a combined 80% share of the trade, according to Ursa.
Behind the shipping numbers sits a resilient aluminium sector. China’s primary aluminium production hit a record pace in 2025, with output for January to November estimated at 40.4m tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. With copper supplies tight and prices high, aluminium substitution has accelerated, helping keep smelter utilisation rates firm.
Signal Ocean expects those dynamics to carry into early 2026. High power costs in Europe and the US have tightened
aluminium supply elsewhere, reinforcing China’s reliance on imported bauxite and supporting continued strong flows in the first quarter.
For the dry bulk market, bauxite stands out. While iron ore and coal face softer outlooks that may weigh on Capesize demand, bauxite is expected to outperform in the near term. Longer term, analysts flag Guinea’s plans to expand domestic processing as a potential risk to seaborne volumes, but any meaningful impact is unlikely before the latter part of the decade.
· Maersk heads back to the Red Sea
Danish carrier Maersk, the world’s second largest liner, has taken its first structural step back into the Red Sea, deciding to reroute its MECL service, connecting the Middle East and India with the US east coast, through the Suez Canal after months of Cape of Good Hope diversions.
The service, which is fully operated by Maersk and not part of any alliance network, allows the carrier to return to the originally designed pattern, cutting transit times and restoring what it says is the most efficient routing for customers.
The structural return kicks off with the Cornelia Maersk, an 8,650 teu Danish-flagged vessel, departing Oman’s port of Salalah on January 26, while the Maersk Detroit will become the first eastbound ship back through Suez on February 3.
The decision follows two initial trial sailings through the corridor of the Maersk Sebarok and the Maersk Denver and forms part of a gradual, stepwise approach to resuming East–West navigation via the Red Sea. The group stressed that the move remains conditional on the security situation in the region holding steady.
The carrier said it will continue to monitor developments closely and has contingency plans in place should tensions flare again. These include reverting individual MECL sailings, or the entire service, back to the longer Cape route if required.
Maersk has long maintained that the trans-Suez route is its preferred option when conditions allow. The Suez Canal and the Red Sea corridor offer the fastest and most fuel-efficient link between East and West, with clear benefits for emissions and schedule reliability compared with the Cape of Good Hope.
The company added that close cooperation with the Suez Canal Authority has been central to planning the return, with ongoing coordination aimed at ensuring safe operations and predictable service levels as Maersk cautiously edges more services back through the corridor.
· Fredriksen goes back to Hengli for two more VLCCs
John Fredriksen has returned once again to China’s Hengli Shipbuilding, adding more VLCC tonnage as the shipping tycoon keeps pressing ahead with fleet renewal.
Fredriksen’s private investment arm, Seatankers Management, has contracted two 306,000 dwt crude carriers at the Dalian-based yard. Chinese-listed ST Songfa confirmed that its subsidiary, Hengli Shipbuilding, has signed contracts for the pair, with deliveries scheduled for the second half of 2028.
The total value of the contracts has been estimated at between $200m and $300m, putting the price range at roughly $100m to $150m per vessel. The deal marks one of Hengli Heavy Industries’ first publicly disclosed newbuilding contracts since entering 2026, following a bumper year in which the yard secured 115 newbuildings worth more than $14bn.
Fredriksen’s wider tanker interests are heavily exposed to Hengli with multiple newbuilds. Frontline has already revealed plans to take six Hengli-built VLCCs from an affiliate of Hemen Holding, Fredriksen’s private vehicle, as part of a nine-ship newbuilding package.
Hengli’s in-house VLCC design features a 332.8-metre hull, 60-metre beam and 30-metre depth, with a service speed of 14.5 knots. The design is marketed as meeting the latest efficiency and emissions standards. The Dalian yard has rapidly built a strong orderbook in the VLCC segment, with a series of crude carriers on order for owners including Idan Ofer’s Eastern Pacific Shipping, Evangelos Marinakis’ Capital Group and George
Economou’s TMS Tankers, cementing its place among the
busiest VLCC builders in the market.
· Suezmax earnings head upward with plenty of cargoes and shrinking ship supply
VLCC strength bolsters supply-demand dynamics and puts wind in Owners’ sails. Suezmax Owners are in for some good times, according to Fearnleys. Tonnage is thin in several key regions, the Norwegian broker said. When coupled with trickle-down strength from surging VLCC rates, this means “owners will have wind in their sails”. “We still have healthy volumes to cover in West Africa for 1st decade [of February], in addition to multiple February cargoes expected from Guyana, Brazil and the US Gulf,” it said.
· Aygaz breaks into large gas carriers with VLGC order at HD Hyundai
Gas unit of the Koc Holding conglomerate makes its biggest seaborne investment yet.
Aygaz, part of the giant Turkish Koc Holding conglomerate, has made its first large-scale investment in the oceangoing gas carrier business.
The company said in a public filing on the Istanbul bourse that it signed a newbuilding contract with HD Hyundai Samho for a very large gas carrier (VLGC). This ship costs $119m and is due for delivery in the second quarter of 2028.
· Ga-Hyun Chung’s Sinokor Maritime set to emerge as largest VLCC owner
Italian shipowner Gianluigi Aponte named by some as partner or backer on large tanker splurge. Sinokor Maritime could become the largest owner of VLCC tonnage if its recent purchases of approximately 30 vessels and additional time-charter deals are concluded to lift its fleet of these tankers above 100.
- The US and Taiwan struck a trade deal that would lower tariffs on goods from the island to 15% and see Taiwanese chip companies increase financing for American operations by $500 billion. While Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. wasn’t named in the agreement, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick told CNBC he expects the firm “to come in huge, bigger.” The move follows TSMC’s blowout earnings, which ignited an AI- driven rally and ended the S&P 500’s two-day slide.
- China and Canada unveiled cooperation deals, including plans to expand energy trade. Among the agreements
was a pledge to establish a ministerial dialogue and to explore opportunities in oil, gas, nuclear and clean technology. Still, the documents made no mention of canola or EV tariffs, the two countries’ biggest trade irritants. Xi Jinping and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney are set to meet Friday.
- Oil prices fell nearly 5 per cent on Thursday as US-Iran tensions de-escalated and traders dialled back their bets on military action against one of the world’s major crude producers.
Brent crude, the international benchmark, dropped by $3 a
barrel to $63.45, erasing most of this week’s gains.
The protests in Iran, fresh US tariffs on buyers of Iranian oil and the prospect of a US intervention after reports of a heavy death toll all helped crude prices break above their 200-day moving average to as high as $66.82 a barrel earlier this week.
Iran produces about 3 per cent of the world’s oil and exports 2mn barrels of crude a day, almost all to China. It also controls the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 30 per cent of the world’s seaborne oil flows each day, and a choke point that regularly captures the market’s attention during periods of regional tension.
But prices retreated sharply after US President Donald Trump’s remarks on Wednesday and continued to slide as traders digested conciliatory comments from Iran’s foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi. He told Fox News he was “confident” that “there is no plan for hanging at all”.
Arab governments believe intense diplomatic efforts to dissuade Trump from striking Iran have reduced tensions in the Gulf.
“LIFE may take you through a hundred storms, but it’s the rainbows you see that make you realize how beautiful your life can be” – Roger Lee.
Baltic Shipping News 16th January, 2026
Baltic Exchange Index – 15 JANUARY 2026
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2175 (- 147)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== ======== ======
C2 170000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 9.819 – 0.412
C3 170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 19.259 + 0.077 C5 160-170000 mt W Australia to Qingdao 7.225 + 0.320 C7 160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 11.675 – 0.581
C8_182 182000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 21,938 – 1875 C9_182 182000mt Cont/Med Trip China/Japan 41,056 – 2694 C10_182 182000mt China/Japan T/P RV 16,355 – 1540 C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil or W.Africa RV 20,632 – 59 C16_182 182000mt Far East – Atlantic BH 3,389 – 1305 C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 14.170 – 0.235
========================================== ======== ========
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 16,226 – 1334 5TC_182 Weighted Timecharter Average 19,729 – 1334
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 15 JANUARY 2026 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,398 (+ 57)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ======== ====== P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 12,250 + 509
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 18,849 + 544 P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 10,688 + 181 P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 7,535 + 94
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 14,040 + 922
====== ================================= ======= =====
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 12,585 + 513
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average. Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ======== ======
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 9,600 – 31
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 49.093 + 1.079 P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 34.893 + 1.157
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 15 January 2026
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ======== ======
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 9,600 -31
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 15 JANUARY 2026 Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 963 (+ 10)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================= =========
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 16,117 + 29 S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 21,232 + 971 BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 9,463 – 6 BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 9,050 – 120 S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 21,571 + 1450 S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 10,204 + 18
| BS5_63 | West Africa trip via ECSA to North China | 18,268 + | 57 |
| BS8_63 | South China trip via Indo to EC.India | 9,825 – | 32 |
| BS9_63 | W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero | 14,743 – | 18 |
| S10_63 | S.China trip via Indonesia to South China | 7,541 – 43 | |
| S15_63 | Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East | 11,279 – 59 | |
====== ========================================= =========
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 12,166 + 126 S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 10,132 + 126
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 15 January 2026
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== ======= =====
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 9,463 -6 S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 9,825 -32
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 7,541 -53
====== =============================== ======= ======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 9,011 -27
Baltic Exchange Index – 15 JANUARY 2026 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 589 (- 1)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== ========= ======
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 7,000 – 14 HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 8,564 – 7 HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 16,600 + 61 HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 15,143 – 39 HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 9,931 – 25
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jp 9,288 – 31 HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 8,406 – 38
====== ======================================== ========= ======
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 10,598 – 15
BALTIC FORWARD ASSESSMENTS – THURSDAY 15 JANUARY 2026
BFA CAPESIZE
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Jan | 26 18,900 $/day | 29 ↑ |
| Feb | 26 17,543 $/day | 1,536 ↑ |
| Mar | 26 23,225 $/day | 1,239 ↑ |
| Apr | 26 25,154 $/day | 1,143 ↑ |
| May | 26 26,214 $/day | 1,082 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 26,764 $/day | 1,053 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 19,889 $/day | 934 ↑ |
| Q2 | 26 26,044 $/day | 1,093 ↑ |
| Q3 | 26 27,157 $/day | 675 ↑ |
| Q4 | 26 27,411 $/day | 468 ↑ |
| Q1 | 27 17,864 $/day | 393 ↑ |
| Q2 | 27 23,604 $/day | 475 ↑ |
| Cal | 27 24,004 $/day | 583 ↑ |
| Cal | 28 22,007 $/day | 450 ↑ |
| Cal | 29 20,611 $/day | 240 ↑ |
| Cal | 30 19,489 $/day | 157 ↑ |
Cal 31 19,067 $/day 46 ↑
BFA PANAMAX 82
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Jan | 26 12,725 $/day | 235 ↑ |
| Feb | 26 14,136 $/day | 882 ↑ |
| Mar | 26 16,718 $/day | 625 ↑ |
| Apr | 26 17,279 $/day | 472 ↑ |
| May | 26 16,711 $/day | 271 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 16,386 $/day | 182 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 14,526 $/day | 580 ↑ |
| Q2 | 26 16,792 $/day | 308 ↑ |
| Q3 | 26 15,504 $/day | 64 ↑ |
| Q4 | 26 14,797 $/day | 65 ↑ |
| Q1 | 27 12,768 $/day | 133 ↑ |
| Q2 | 27 14,192 $/day | 106 ↑ |
| Cal | 27 13,886 $/day | 111 ↑ |
| Cal | 28 13,569 $/day | 81 ↑ |
| Cal | 29 13,372 $/day | 65 ↑ |
| Cal | 30 13,073 $/day | 0 → |
| Cal | 31 12,855 $/day | 7 ↑ |
BFA SUPRAMAX 63
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| Jan | 26 12,630 $/day | 192 ↑ |
| Feb | 26 13,584 $/day | 732 ↑ |
| Mar | 26 16,463 $/day | 550 ↑ |
| Apr | 26 16,816 $/day | 396 ↑ |
| May | 26 16,698 $/day | 271 ↑ |
| Jun | 26 16,555 $/day | 185 ↑ |
| Q1 | 26 14,226 $/day | 492 ↑ |
| Q2 | 26 16,690 $/day | 285 ↑ |
| Q3 | 26 15,959 $/day | 182 ↑ |
| Q4 | 26 15,523 $/day | 157 ↑ |
| Q1 Q2 | 27 13,484 $/day 27 14,648 $/day | 82 ↑ |
BALTIC INDICES 15/01/2026
DRY INDEX: 1532 (- 34)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 2175 (- 147)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1398 (+ 57)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 963 (+ 10)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 589 (- 1)
BCI 182 TC AVG $/DAY 19729 (- 1334) BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 12585 (+ 513) BSI TC AVG $/DAY 12166 (+ 126) BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 10598 (- 15)
TIMECHARTER
‘Glory Eagle’ 2012 95349 dwt dely Kinuura 15/17 Jan trip via Newcastle redel Japan intention coal $11,750 – Mira Bulk
‘Yangze 25’ 2023 82420 dwt dely Taichung 19/20 Jan trip via EC Australia redel India $11,250/-
‘Darya Lachmi’ 2022 82271 dwt dely CJK 15/20 Jan trip via Australia redel India intention coal $10,500 – Cargill
‘Shandong Xin Guo’ 2025 82147 dwt dely Jintang 14 Jan trip via North China redel Ghent intention slag $8,250 for first 75 days and Index thereafter – Cobelfret
‘Myrsini’ 2010 82117 dwt dely Hambantonta 7 Jan trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $14,600
‘Mondial Success’ 2017 82010 dwt dely Immingham 23/24 Jan trip via US East Coast redel India $22,000 – Safeen Invictus
‘Corinna’ 2013 81675 dwt dely PMO 30 Dec trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $12,900
‘Flag Lama’ 2017 80891 dwt dely Singapore 31 Dec trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $14,000
‘Shi Dai 2’ 2007 76510 dwt dely Xiamen 18 Jan trip via EC Australia redel South China $8,000 / North China $8,500 – Guaransea
‘Ionian Sunshine’ 2010 76441 dwt dely EC South America 3/10 Feb trip redel Singapore-Japan $14,750 + $475,000 bb – Cofco
‘Penta’ 2011 76424 dwt dely Yangzhong 15/16 Jan trip via Australia redel Singapore-Japan intention coal $9,500
‘Johnny Cash’ 2007 75149 dwt dely Yanbu 9 Jan trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $12,250
PERIOD
‘Green K-Max 1’ 2019 80856 dwt dely Fangcheng 5/10 Feb 5/7 months redel worldwide $16,750 – Speedlog
VOYAGES ORE
‘TBN’ 190000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 30 Jan/1 Feb
$7.70 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – BHP
‘HL Sines’ 2009 170000/10 Tubarao option West Africa/Qingdao 6/12 Feb $19.20 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – Mercuria
‘Captain J Papadakis ‘ 2011 170000/10 Tubarao/Qingdao 6/12 Feb
$19.25 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – Cargill COAL
‘LDC tbn’ 70000/5 Newport News/Jorf Lasfar 5/11 Jan
$13.25 fio 30000shinc/30000shinc – Jera GM
© Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd 2026
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