· U.S. Flips history by casting Europe – not Russia – as villain in security policy.
For years the U.S. Government has published its annual National Security Strategy that lays out how Washington sees the world and its approach to dealing with looming threats, from China to Russia, to drug traffickers in Latin America.
In its latest report, the Trump administration’s version seemed to reserve its harshest tone for a new target: America’s closest allies in Europe.
The Continent faces ‘civilizational erasure’ through immigration that could render it ‘un-recognizable’ in two decades, as well as turning several NATO allies into majority ‘non-european’ countries. In conclusion they said the region could grow too weak to be ‘reliable allies’.
· China’s growth is coming at the rest of the world’s expense.
Who has contributed more to the rest of the world’s growth this year ? Is it China or the U.S. ?
Even as the U.S. rolls out tariffs, its imports are up 10% so far this year from a year earlier. As China moralizes against protectionism, its imports are down 3% in dollar terms. In the past five years, China’s export volumes have soared while imports have flattened. China is swallowing up a growing share of the world’s market for manufactured goods. More output of 1% in China would raise the rest of the world’s output by 0.2% as it pulled in imports. China expands into high-end manufacturing such as aircraft and semi-conductors. At the same time Xi has said it must not relinquish low-end production such as toys and clothes. Many countries are frustrated by China’s strategy, which is squeezing out their own manufacturing sectors and export opportunities. None has a solution.
When Netherlands took control of Dutch chip maker Nexperia from its Chinese Owner for national security reasons, China barred the company from exporting chips from its Chinese operations, crippling auto-assembly customers. The Netherlands then backed off.
· US imports fall as market awaits Supreme Court tariff ruling
US containerised imports totalled 2.18m teu in November, down 5.4% m/m and 7.8% y/y, according to Descartes.
National Retail Federation’s Global Port Tracker forecasts that imports in January-April 2026 will be down 10.7% y/y and 3.1% vs first four months of 2024.
Supreme Court could rule soon on Trump’s use of IEEPA tariffs; a loss for Trump could provide sentiment boost to shipping demand.
· Corruption chaos – Ukraine
“Is it possible to become President and not steal?” Volodymyr Zelensky asked before he became president of Ukraine in 2019. “It’s a rhetorical question, as no one has tried so far.”
Now his top advisers are tangled in a graft investigation. It threatens his popularity and his government — all while Russia advances on the battlefield and President Trump pushes a peace plan that favours Moscow.
The allegations
Ukrainian investigators say that a criminal organization led by Zelensky’s former business partner embezzled $100 million from the country’s publicly owned nuclear power company, Energoatom. Even as Ukrainians endured blackouts caused by Russian bombing, members of the President’s inner circle skimmed money from Energoatom contracts.
Here’s how the scheme worked: Energoatom awarded contracts to get work done. Then, a criminal group that included Energoatom employees and a former government adviser demanded that the recipients quietly give them up to 15 percent of those funds — basically after-the-fact bribes if they wanted to keep getting paid.
New details
When the war began, Ukraine’s Western allies wanted to figure out how to send money to Kyiv without seeing it vanish into the pockets of corrupt officials. To protect the money, they insisted that Zelensky’s government allow groups of outside experts, known as supervisory boards, to work as watchdogs.
But the Ukrainian government has sabotaged that oversight, allowing corruption to flourish, the Times investigation found. Zelensky’s administration stacked the supervisory boards with loyalists, left seats empty or prevented boards from being set up at all. Leaders in Kyiv even rewrote various company charters to limit oversight, which allowed the government to spend hundreds of millions of dollars without outsiders asking questions about where that money was going.
Zelensky has blamed Energoatom’s supervisory board for failing to stop the corruption. But, according to documents and interviews with officials, it was the government itself that prevented the board from doing its job.
Zelensky’s role
Zelensky himself has not been directly implicated in the corruption. But his policies may have enabled it. After Russia’s invasion, Zelensky relaxed anti-corruption rules in the name of boosting the war effort. He worked with political and business figures he had once called criminals, and, this summer, he tried to curtail the independence of anticorruption investigators as they pursued the case that ultimately implicated his associates. (He reversed course after Ukrainians poured into the streets in the country’s first large anti-government protests during the war, saying that Zelensky was threatening Ukraine’s fragile democracy.)
In the course of the investigation, Zelensky asked for the resignation of two ministers and his powerful chief of staff, Andriy Yermak.
A backlash
The scandal has thrown Zelensky’s government into chaos. Political opponents are coalescing around the first major anti- Zelensky movement since the Russian invasion began. And Yermak, now gone, had been running the country’s peace negotiations with Trump and others.
It’s an awkward situation for Ukraine’s supporters abroad. They saw a smaller nation stand up to a larger bully that wants to tear it apart. It’s difficult to cast the victim as virtuous, though, when its government is engulfed in a corruption scandal.
Let’s be clear: Russia’s invasion of Ukraine had nothing to do with a domestic graft scandal. But the corruption does make it harder to tell a simplistic story about justice.
- Russian troops continue to gain ground in eastern Ukraine.
Vladimir Putin has ordered the Russian military to prepare for winter combat, signalling after peace talks that he is not budging from his demands.
This War now running into its 5th year hinges on a) Whether Zelensky will give up his rights to territory gained by Russia over the last 4 years, b) whether US and its NATO allies guarantee Ukraine protection from future attacks by Russia. The second option involves financial investments by way of money also sophisticated Armaments for the US and NATO to fight Russia. The domestic financial situations including their economies are not in the best of health to drag this war. Russia knows this.
- China’s trade surplus tops $1tn for first time
Exports soar despite tensions between Washington and Beijing
China’s trade surplus in goods has surpassed $1tn this year for the first time, as exports boomed despite US President Donald Trump’s tariff war. In the first 11 months of this year, China’s trade surplus in dollar terms was $1.076tn, according to data released on Monday by the country’s customs administration, which covers goods but not services. China’s trade surplus in goods for the full year in 2024 was just shy of $1tn. The record surplus comes in the wake of a de-escalation in trade tensions between Washington and Beijing, which agreed a yearlong truce in October. China’s large
gap between its exports and imports has drawn criticism from its trading partners, with French President Emmanuel Macron pointing to “unbearable” imbalances on a visit to the country last week.
Beijing has relied heavily on exports to drive economic activity amid weak domestic demand and a property slowdown now entering its fifth year.
As Thailand and Cambodia fight again along a disputed border, many people are rushing to find shelter. The conflict has displaced hundreds of thousands. Thailand accused Cambodian forces of opening fire at several locations and responded with F-16 airstrikes on military sites. At least 10 people are dead, and there’s little sign of a pause as both sides traded artillery fire overnight.
For those watching this unfold, a relapse into conflict always felt likely despite the joint declaration Trump witnessed in October — one of eight disputes he claims to have resolved since returning to office, mostly by leveraging the use of US tariffs.
But the roots of this crisis run deep, and aren’t so easily fixed.
They stretch back to colonial-era maps drawn under the Franco- Siamese treaties of the early 1900s. The sovereignty of several areas remains contested, fuelling intermittent clashes since 2008 and a deadly flare-up in 2011.
Thai military launches airstrikes on Cambodia as cross-border clashes erupt. The Thai military said on Monday (Dec 8th) it had launched airstrikes against Cambodia as each side accused the other of violating the ceasefire agreement that ended five days of cross border clashes in July. Thailand is set to call for action over landmines near Cambodia border. The Foreign Minister said he will request an International fact- finding mission.
· How China Wins the Future
Beijing’s Strategy to seize the New Frontiers of Power.
For decades, China has been preparing for “competition in the world’s literal and figurative frontiers,” including the deep seas, the poles, cyberspace, and outer space. Beijing’s goal is to dominate the “underlying systems” that will be essential to global trade and security in the years ahead.
But while Beijing has invested in hard capabilities and expanded its reach in international institutions, the United States’ polar icebreakers, space technologies, and deep-seabed mining equipment “either already lag well behind those of China or soon will”. Washington, therefore, is “not just abdicating its role in the current international system” but also “falling behind in the fight to define the next one.”
- President Trump is making the argument that his tariffs are working, but he’s also rolling out $12 billion to bail out farmers. Volodymyr Zelensky said Ukraine would reject the U.S. proposal to cede land to Russia. And today (Tuesday), the Supreme Court will hear a challenge to the way political campaigns are funded.
The Justices heard arguments yesterday in a case that will determine how much power the President has over independent federal agencies.
· Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a trade war with no end in sight.
- When Japanese children have a milestone
birthday, many go to a shrine. It’s a rite of passage called Shichi-Go-San, or 7-5-3, for kids turning those ages. Now, dogs are being honoured, too. At some Shinto shrines, pets even outnumber children. Japan has one of the world’s lowest birthrates, but pet ownership is booming. A shrine in Tokyo now welcomes more than 350 pets for the ceremony each year, compared with about 50 children.
Dog owners are splurging on wigs, amulets and tailor- made jackets for the occasion.
· Tension cases
Following talks in London, top European politicians see growing chances of reaching an agreement before Christmas on using frozen Russian assets to secure a €90 billion loan for Ukraine. The US government, however, has reportedly proposed using the frozen funds for future post-war investments. Ukraine urgently needs new sources of financing, especially since US support has largely dried up. Differences between Europe and the US also persist regarding security guarantees for Kyiv. A breakthrough on the terms of a potential peace agreement has yet to be achieved; control over eastern Ukraine and reliable security commitments remain particularly sensitive issues.
- Meanwhile, South Korea scrambled military jets after Russian and Chinese aircraft repeatedly violated the South Korean Air Identification Zone (KADIZ). Although no airspace was breached, the incident exacerbates already heightened regional tensions triggered by China’s more aggressive stance towards Japan in the Taiwan conflict.
- European leaders are increasingly confident they can reach a deal to use frozen Russian assets to help Ukraine before the end of the year and perhaps as soon as this week, even as a gulf remains between Europe and the US on providing security guarantees for Kyiv.
- German lawmakers are set to approve 29 military procurement contracts worth a record €52 billion next week, part of the government’s push to transform the Bundeswehr into Europe’s strongest conventional army, Michael Nienaber reports.
- German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said elements of a new US national security strategy unveiled last week are unacceptable to Europe and advised President Donald Trump to avoid going it alone.
- The Baltic countries are fortifying a 30-kilometer buffer zone on their borders with Russia and Belarus, building defensive networks that allow them to shape the battlefield and slow a potential Russian advance. Some in the three nations worry that if they’re seen to be losing ground in the early days of a war, their allies in NATO could waver over intervening, or seek some kind of negotiated settlement. They need to be able to hold on until help arrives, but also prove that they’re worth saving.
- Turkey is quietly encircling Israel and Washington is letting it happen. Turkey’s foreign policy since 2019 has shifted from opportunistic adventurism to a structured, region-wide projection strategy. Through military bases, naval power, proxy networks, and ideological patronage, Ankara has been slowly creating a ring of influence around Israel – an arc stretching from Northern Syria to the Mediterranean and into the Palestinian political arena. The net effect resemble a deliberate encirclement. What is more puzzling, from an Israel vantage point, is Washington’s restraint.
- Landmark Deal gives North America its First Heavy Rare Earth Refinery. REAlloys, an all-American rare earth company, has engaged in a partnership with Saskatchew Research Council, a move that could corner US heavy rare-earth markets.
· Oil Prices Are Set to Fall Below $60 Next Year
Most investment banks and the EIA forecast that average oil prices will fall below $60 per barrel in 2026 due to an emerging and persistent market oversupply.
The oversupply is primarily caused by weak global demand growth combined with rising supply from both OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ producers.
Geopolitical tensions involving Venezuela, Russia, and Iran, as well as Chinese strategic stockpiling, are noted as potential factors that could mitigate or slow the predicted price declines.
Oil prices are set to average below $60 per barrel next year, investment banks have said in their latest forecasts in recent weeks.
In 2026, both Brent Crude and WTI Crude are expected to slip from current levels of $63 per barrel and $60 a barrel, respectively, as the emerging oversupply will overwhelm the market, analysts say.
Geopolitical factors will certainly play into the price of oil next year, and these will be centered on Venezuela, Russia, and Iran.
Despite the many geopolitical uncertainties, the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Wall Street banks are looking at the fundamentals and remain bearish on oil for the next year, forecasting prices to average below $60 per barrel in 2026.
The EIA expects, in its latest Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO), that global oil inventories will continue to rise through 2026, putting downward pressure on oil prices in the coming months. The EIA forecasts the Brent crude oil price will dip to an average of $54 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, and average $55 a barrel for all of 2026. Still, the EIA’s Brent forecast for 2026 is $3 per barrel higher than in the previous month’s outlook, due to Chinese stockpiling and the intensified sanctions on Russia.
“First, we now assess that China’s ongoing purchases of oil for strategic stockpiling will place more upward pressure on oil prices than we had assumed previously. Second, this forecast recognizes that the recent round of sanctions on Russia’s oil sector could result in less oil production next year than we are currently forecasting,” the EIA said.
Macquarie Group also sees lower oil prices next year, but notes that sanctions on Russia, uncertainty about Venezuela, and U.S. winter weather could slow price declines.
Macquarie analysts believe that OPEC+ would have to implement production cuts in the second half of 2026 to steady the market amid an expected drop in prices, according to the bank’s latest quarterly forecast carried by World Oil.
ABN AMRO Bank said in its Energy Market Outlook 2026 that weak global demand growth and rising OPEC+ and non-OPEC+ supply have resulted in an oversupplied market. Prices haven’t plunged due to China’s stockpiling efforts and geopolitical uncertainties, said Moutaz Altaghlibi, senior energy economist at ABN AMRO Bank.
“All in all, we anticipate the supply glut—caused by weaker demand growth and increasing supply—to persist throughout 2026, with its impact steadily pushing crude prices lower,” Altaghlibi said.
ABN AMRO forecasts Brent crude to average $58 per barrel in the first quarter of 2026, gradually falling to $52 a barrel as the glut worsens, and ultimately reaching $50 per barrel by the end of the year, with a year average of $55 per barrel.
Ole Hvalbye, commodities analyst at SEB bank, said last week, “We continue to see the path of least resistance as skewed to the downside.”
“Rising tension between Washington and Venezuela is adding a small geopolitical premium, although not enough to offset the broader bearish backdrop of rising supply and a market leaning deeper into surplus,” Hvalbye said.
Other banks and analysts concur that the glut will be the key theme in fundamentals next year. Oversupplied markets will keep oil prices under pressure next year, and the U.S. benchmark will
average below $60 per barrel, the monthly Reuters poll of analysts and economists showed at the end of November.
WTI Crude is expected to average $59 per barrel in 2026, and Brent Crude, the international benchmark, is set to average $62.23 per barrel next year, down from $63.15 forecast in the Reuters poll in October.
Goldman Sachs sees a large surplus on the market, with WTI Crude expected to average $53 per barrel in 2026.
The oil market is set to rebalance in 2027 as 2026 will see “the last big oil supply wave the market has to work through,” Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at Goldman Sachs, told CNBC last month.
Fundamentals point to lower oil prices next year, but geopolitical shocks are lurking around the corner, from Russia to Venezuela. A loss of Venezuelan oil production in case of a U.S. military intervention will materially impact global benchmark prices as the market will have to replace Venezuela’s heavy crude—the bulk of Caracas’ crude exports, according to Rystad Energy. A potential tightening of the global heavy crude market could push up the price of the Dubai benchmark against ICE Brent as China will scramble to replace the lost Venezuelan barrels, the analysts said last week.
· Zim’s next chapter hinges on year-end shareholder vote
Zim announces ISS backing for ‘no’ vote on dissident shareholders’ board nominations as carrier seeks to shield ongoing strategic review. Initial take-private bid from Eli Glickman and Rami Ungar in August prompted board to put company in play, attracting interest from competing ocean carriers.
Analysts point to challenges for takeover bids from carriers; Jefferies’ Omar Nokta believes upsized Glickman-Ungar bid is ‘likely’. The stock of ocean carrier Zim is a beloved trading vehicle for US investors betting on the twists and turns of the container shipping cycle. But Zim’s shares could exit the New York Stock Exchange in 2026. Takeover interest has mounted.
· Tanker identity theft cases have risen dramatically this year
Volume and complexity of tanker theft operations has spiked over 2025. Lloyd’s List analysis identifies 46 IMO numbers for scrapped tankers currently in active use, compared with 19 a year ago
Cases are increasingly associated with fraudulent flag operations, making corroboration more difficult. The practice of resurrecting identification details from scrapped vessels and using them to mask the operation of shadow fleet vessels is not new, but the volume of cases has dramatically increased this year as shadow fleet ships seek cover from tightening sanctions.
- The Week in Charts: Still just a trickle of US soyabeans to China | Bab el Mandeb transits at highest level in nearly two years
| LNG and ro-ro veterans go for recycling
US-China trade deal called for China to purchase 12m tonnes of US soyabeans by year-end; it has purchased less than a quarter of that with just three weeks to go. Data shows shipping is gradually making a return to the Red Sea. Notable sales included the 2003-built steam-turbine LNG carrier Seapeak Asia to cash buyers with handover at Oman.
· Muted ship recycling market persists amid weak steel demand and currency pressures
Ship recycling activity remained subdued over the past week as strong freight markets and weak steel demand limited demolition candidates. Notable sales included the aframax tanker Vigo to Bangladeshi recyclers following mechanical failure.
Medium range tanker Morality was sold to Indian buyers for $416 per ldt. Despite a number of notable transactions overall tonnage availability remains thin
· Jinhui keeps up fleet renewal push with another ultramax newbuild
Jinhui Shipping and Transportation has added another ultramax to its growing newbuild programme in China, returning to Jiangmen Nanyang Ship Engineering for a 64,500 dwt bulker priced at $33.45m.
The Oslo-listed, Hong Kong-based owner placed the order only months after committing $99.15m at the same yard for three sister vessels of identical specification, all slated for delivery in the first quarter of 2028. The latest unit is expected to join the fleet on or before end-October 2028.
Jinhui said the move fits its long-term plan to replace ageing tonnage with larger, modern and fuel-efficient vessels. The company noted that the supply of high-quality, young second- hand bulkers with suitable specs and workable delivery windows has tightened, pushing the owner toward fresh newbuildings that meet the latest regulatory standards and allow for tailor-made design features.
Once delivered, the vessel will be employed on third-party charters. The group currently operates 25 vessels — 19 owned and six chartered in — with a combined capacity of around 2m dwt.
Two of the owned units are under sale-and-leaseback structures.
The four-ship ultramax series at Jiangmen Nanyang follows two earlier 63,500 dwt orders at Jiangsu Hantong Ship Heavy Industry worth $68m, due in late 2026 and late 2027. Taken together, the six newbuildings underline Jinhui’s drive to modernise its fleet with younger, larger tonnage. The company has also been active on the disposal side, selling 11 older supramaxes this year as part of one of its most intensive fleet reshaping phases to date.
· Lloyd’s Register demonstrates remote class survey capabilities using live vessel data
British class society Lloyd’s Register (LR) and Greek shipowner Latsco have completed a proof-of-concept for a new standard in digital class assurance with data-driven surveys.
This collaboration aims to demonstrate how verified operational vessel data can fully meet class survey requirements, without compromising safety, integrity, or technical rigour.
The proof-of-concept was conducted on the 2017-built tanker Hellas Margarita during an active voyage to Singapore. Using LR’s digital survey test procedure, the project team remotely tested, recorded and verified the vessel’s auxiliary engine alarms, controls, shutdowns, and safety systems through raw data capture. The process was then validated by a physical inspection, confirming that the digital approach using the data delivered the same level of assurance, accuracy, and safety as traditional methods.
The results confirmed that data-driven methodologies can match and potentially exceed the technical assurance and data integrity of conventional onboard physical surveys. While existing regulations still require physical attendance for survey requirements, this project demonstrates how verified operational data could allow for more efficient, transparent, and scalable compliance processes, reducing the need for physical attendance and enabling smarter fleet management.
Following the project’s success, LR and Latsco plan to jointly extend the methodology test across additional vessels and systems to validate the framework’s repeatability with the aim of establishing a pilot scheme for digital class assurance.
“By validating the use of verified operational data for survey assurance, we’re taking an important step towards a smarter, more connected maritime industry,” said Elina Papageorgiou, VP for Greece and Cyprus at Lloyd’s Register.
“This initiative proves that trusted operational data can be used to credit survey requirements without compromising safety or technical integrity, while giving our vessels greater flexibility within increasingly tight trading schedules,” said Antonis Georgantzis, COO at Latsco.
· COSCO supercharges expansion with $7bn order for 87 ships
China’s state-run shipping COSCO, the world’s largest shipowner, has placed a massive order for 87 newbuildings with yards under China State Shipbuilding Corp (CSSC), sealing the largest single domestic shipbuilding contract ever awarded in the country.
The deal, worth more than RMB50bn (about $7.07bn), includes containerships, tankers, bulk carriers and multipurpose vessels, and will be distributed across several of CSSC’s leading facilities, including Jiangnan Shipyard, Guangzhou Shipyard International, Wuchang Shipbuilding, Dalian Shipbuilding, Beihai Shipbuilding and Chengxi Shipyard.
According to domestic sources, the orders involve COSCO Shipping Lines, COSCO Shipping Bulk, COSCO Shipping Energy, COSCO Shipping Development and COSCO Shipping Specialized Carriers.
The vessels are expected to feature next-generation energy- efficient designs, alternative-fuel-ready configurations and digital, AI-enabled systems — all in line with the IMO’s decarbonisation pathway and China’s own drive to modernise and secure its supply chain.
The latest package adds to COSCO’s wider expansion plan laid out last year, which already includes a variety of newbuildings spread across several Chinese shipyards. That momentum has carried into this year. COSCO recently pushed ahead with a $1.75bn programme for 29 ships across multiple segments and has also signed up for additional newcastlemax bulkers, strengthening its position as the most active investor in China’s large bulk carrier market in 2025.
· Everllence successfully tests ethanol- fuelled dual-fuel engine
Everllence, the German engine manufacturer formerly known as MAN, has successfully run its ethanol-fuelled 21/31 dual-fuel engine at test facilities in Frederikshavn.
The company was the first engine manufacturer to launch a small- bore, four-stroke, methanol-burning engine in 2024, known as the 21/31DF-M unit. Several are already in commercial operation.
The company continued work on the 21/31 platform and has completed successful operation on ethanol. This provides Everllence with a fully operational engine with which to document ethanol’s capabilities as fuel.
“This engine platform has shown great promise when burning alternative fuels, and during testing, we even managed to expand the ethanol fuel share compared with methanol. In general, the past few years have seen steadily growing interest in ethanol from the market,” said Rasmus Frimann Nielsen, senior manager and head of four-stroke small-bore engineering at Everllence.
He added that the company was still evaluating the data, and that it confirms earlier assumptions that the company could run the 21/31 engine on ethanol without issues.
“Our position as the world’s leading engine designer means that we have a special, ongoing obligation to develop new technologies to decarbonise the global maritime industry. Now we need legislation in place that considers the case of ethanol as a viable fuel source, as well as developing a requisite market demand,” added Lars Zimmermann, director of sales and promotion for marine GenSets at Everllence.
· Trafigura reports one of the busiest periods ever for tanker desk
Trading giant also expands bulker cargo base, as sale and purchase contributes to earnings.
Shipping operations remain strong at Trafigura Group as the trading giant sails into next year with a cautious view on the oil markets. The major trader, charterer and shipowner said most tanker freight segments began the year under pressure, but a combination of stronger demand, evolving trade flows and targeted expansion across its operations enabled the group to finish the period with positive momentum.
· Shell linked to long-term deal for new Champion tankers
Charterers faced with array of product carrier newbuildings to pick from.
UK energy giant Shell is said to have boosted its product carrier fleet in a long-term charter deal with Norway’s Champion Tankers. Karl Lodrup Kvalheim’s private shipowner has six methanol- ready MR ships on order at Penglai Jinglu Shipyard in China.
· Malaysia’s MISC enters Brunei offshore gas market with 12-year FPU contract
Converted vessel is expected to begin operation in 2029
Malaysian shipowner MISC has secured a 12-year contract to provide a floating production unit (FPU) for a natural gas project in Brunei. Sources familiar with the Petronas Carigali Brunei project said the tanker and gas shipping giant will convert one of its existing vessels. MISC said on Tuesday that the FPU is expected to begin operation in the first half of 2029.
· Greek owner Alpha Bulkers sells oldest capesize as secondhand values soar
Scarcity of modern sale candidates steers investor interest towards older units in hot freight market.
Strong buying appetite for ageing capesizes has seen Greek owner Alpha Bulkers shed its oldest vessel, brokers say.
The 177,900-dwt Antonis Angelicoussis (built 2007) has been circulating for sale, with the company inviting offers in mid- November.
Baltic Reports 9th December, 2025
Baltic Exchange Market Report
Baltic Dry Index: 2557 (-137)
Baltic Capesize Index: 4631 (-382)
Baltic Panamax Index: 1786 (-27)
Baltic Supramax Index: 1419 (-11)
Baltic Handysize Index: 837 (-3)
CAPESIZE
Quiet and softer conditions prevailed across the market today, with sentiment remaining under pressure throughout both basins. The BCI 5TC suffered a heavy fall of $3,168 to close at $38,403. In the Pacific, two miners returned to the market, although overall activity remained relatively light and failed to provide any real lift to rates. Brokers highlighted a noticeable absence of coal enquiries, which added further downside pressure. On C5, fixtures were reported in the $11.60–$11.80 range, with the C5 index slipping by 0.475 to settle at $11.640. The Atlantic basin remained muted, with both the North and South Atlantic carrying a softer tone. The North Atlantic was reported to be particularly quiet, with a lack of fresh enquiry and increased talk of capes being split into Panamax. On C3, there was a general lack of bids for index dates (29 December/8 January), although a fixture was noted at $22.75 for forward dates of 8/14 January. The C3 index declined by 0.655 to $24.168.
Atlantic
LKAB fixed the Starbulk controlled Peloreus (182,496 2014) for 178,000/5 from Narvik to China for 11/31 December at $34.00. Cargill fixed the NYK controlled GP Zafirakis (179,000 2014) for 170,000/10 from Tubarao option West Africa to China for 8/14 January at $22.75.
Asia
Rio Tinto fixed a TBN for 190,000/10 from Dampier to Qingdao for 24/26 December at $11.55 and a TBN for 170,000/10 from Dampier to Qingdao for 24/26 December at $11.60 lacking further details.
PANAMAX
The week progressed on a flatter tone in the Atlantic and a notably softer footing in Asia.
General weakness is evident in the Pacific, where some owners are increasingly inclined to secure slightly longer cover amid ongoing uncertainty. Trans-Atlantic rates adopted a marginally more positive stance as prompt tonnage tightened, while fronthaul remained mostly flat with charterers continuing to test lower levels.
We are also hearing further talk of potential Capesize stems being split into Panamax cargoes in the Atlantic. In Asia, prompt tonnage is building, while short Indonesian round voyage cargoes remain relatively thin on the front end. With the added challenge of short voyages now potentially exposing Owners over the Christmas period, fixing has become increasingly difficult. Charterers are bidding cautiously, hoping more nervous owners will begin to concede. Period activity stayed muted, with the P5TC average slipping a further $235 to close at $16,078.
Atlantic
Cargill were reported to have taken the Geneva Star (75,843 2009) basis delivery US Gulf 15/20 December for a trip redelivery passing Skaw-Gib at $15,000 + $500,000bb.
Asia
The CSSC Bright (81,574 2018) open Tianjin 09 December fixed a trip via Yantai into Japan with Messrs MOL but a rate did not emerge. The RC Artemis (79,602 2011) open Map Ta Phut 15 December fixed via Indonesia to Korea with Hanaro but again a rate was yet to be revealed.
SUPRAMAX
It seems to be turning into a rather positional market, brokers said. The US Gulf saw a little resistance as owners fought to maintain present levels.
However, from the South Atlantic it was an altogether more negative feel to the market and brokers spoke of lower numbers being discussed.
From Asia, again further drops in levels being achieved as downward pressure remained.
The Indian Ocean whilst seeing a little activity remained finely balanced. The 11 TC average finished the day down $133 at $17,942.
Atlantic
It surfaced that the scrubber fitted Star Cleo (56,581 2013) open Santos 9/10 December was fixed for a trip from EC South America to Morocco at $25,000 with Bunge.
Asia
The Wooyang Hermes (54,296 2008) was heard to have been fixed basis delivery passing Singapore 15/17 December in the mid $15,000s for a trip via Indonesia redelivery N China, but no more details came to light.
HANDYSIZE
The market experienced a generally quiet day, with limited fresh information emerging and a lack of significant shifts across the regions. The BHSI edged down by 3 point to 837, while the 7TC average dropped by $54 to close at $15,059. In the Continent and Mediterranean, limited new inquiries resulted in muted activity and a slight softening in rates. Similarly, the South Atlantic and US Gulf saw fewer fresh inquiries, contributing to a slightly weaker tone in general. A modest buildup of open tonnage has further reinforced the pressure on rates.
Across Asia, conditions remained largely flat. Some reports pointed to a slightly longer tonnage list, particularly on the Southeast Asia–North Asia routes, which added mild downward pressure on sentiment. However, there has been little to no change in the cargo book, and rates are not deviating significantly from the last done levels.
Baltic Exchange Index – 09 DECEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
Route Description Value Change
C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV 55,625 – 6363
C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan 65,744 – 3923
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 37,973 – 2345
314_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage 30,277 – 1718
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 20,539 – 1611
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 39,989 – 2896
Baltic Exchange Index – 09 DECEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 4631 (- 382)
Route Description Value($) Change
C2 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 16.419 – 0.619
C3 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 24.168 – 0.655
C5 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 11.640 – 0.475
C7 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 19.963 – 1.343
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 51,438 – 6125
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 61,028 – 3666
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 35,560 – 2305
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 27,127 – 1646
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 17,944 – 1528
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 18.955 – 0.625
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 38,403 – 3168
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 09 DECEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,786 (- 27)
Route Description Value ($) Change
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 17,589 +12
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 22,938 -139
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 15,597 -614
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 10,063 -146
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 14,938 – 186
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 16,078 – 235
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 16,006 – 691
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 54.779 – 0.278
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 37.543 – 0.371
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 09 DECEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1419 (-11)
Route Description Value ($) Change
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 20,221 – 87
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 29,450 + 139
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 15,806 – 175
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 13,110 – 200
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 31,432 + 143
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 13,193 -75
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 22,225 -268
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 17,818 -303
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 18,400 -175
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 15,225 – 125
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 16,483 – 142
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 17,942 – 133
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 15,908 – 133
Baltic Exchange Index – 09 DECEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 837 (-3)
Route Description Value ($) Change
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 10,707 -64
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 13,182 – 100
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 23,217 -77
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 22,596 -11
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 13,557 -36
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 12,275 -31
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 11,800 -94
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 15,059 – 54
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2025
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