Shipping Insights
The ceasefire in Gaza went into force last Friday paving the way for the release on Monday of the 20 living Israeli hostages and the freeing of over 1,900 Palestinians from prison and detention.
The scenes of jubilation were momentous and emotional and paid tribute to the individuals and countries that, through their collective might and influence, persuaded the warring parties to cease hostilities.
President Trump played a pivotal role in bringing this about by abandoning previous failed diplomatic templates, that stuck to conventional thinking, by introducing a muscular insistence. As claimed by him in the Knesset address, he has stopped 8 wars in 8 months including the Gaza war.
Conventional diplomacy has been replaced by commercially- rooted transactional heft. After the ill-conceived and failed Israeli attacks on Hamas negotiators in Doha, Trump decided enough was enough, unwilling to sanction an attack on close US ally Qatar. Was the 400 million dollar worth aircraft instrumental in influencing a decision here? The 20-point plan reminds us that there is a long way to go but prioritising a
ceasefire and hostage release over Hamas disarmament and a total IDF withdrawal from Gaza successfully kicked off what will be a long chain of events. Sadly, no women hostage bodies were released.
Plenty of obstacles lie ahead and already Hamas has broken its promise to return deceased hostages, is fighting rival clans for control and is executing suspected informers. Meanwhile, the
IDF shot and killed 5 Palestinians on the yellow line. This truce is fragile. After his victory laps in Jerusalem and Sharm El-
Sheikh in Egypt, Trump left, but his continued involvement is vital to keep the two sides and their associates in line, so we can only hope that he does not just take the win and move on.
The whole world is captivated by the possibility of a pan Middle East peace and the prospect that this success may convince many influential countries that collective international pressure should next be applied in the Ukraine conflict.
After the US imposed restrictions on microchip exports to
China, last week China restricted rare earth and critical mineral sales to the US. After the USTR imposed fines on Chinese- linked ships calling US ports, last Friday China retaliated with fines on US-linked ships calling China.
As per Newton’s Third Law of Motion, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction, and this appears to be the case in the US-China trade relationship. In a fit of pique, Trump
threatened an extra 100% tariff on all Chinese goods being imported into the US, only to walk back the threat on Sunday.
The ship penalties came into play on Tuesday while the US
tariff rises apply from Nov 1, just after APEC in SKorea Oct 26-
29. On tariffs, Treasury Sec. Bessent is already suggesting a further delay if China eases up on Rare earths. The fines on each other’s ships will be disruptive but less consequential than massive levies on each other’s goods that will impact every economy in the world with higher input prices.
In the US, the risk is a reversal of onshoring manufacturing as companies may need to expand production in China to access cheap labour, robotics, abundant skills, plentiful electricity and vital rare earths. None of these will be available in size in the US. It is too early to talk of the death of globalisation. We are witnessing a tug-of-war for US manufacturing. Trump wants it back while Xi wants to keep it.
The US economy is doing well, and so is China’s, but being cut off from rare earth and critical mineral supplies could paralyse US manufacturing, industry, energy and national security.
Let us look at some high-end data.
China’s dry bulk import trade remained strong in September, providing encouragement that it can continue to drive global demand for commodity imports and manufactured exports,
tariffs or no tariffs. The VP, USA – JD Vance claims that China stands to suffer under an escalating trade war with the US. The facts, that this administration often chooses to ignore, suggest otherwise.
China’s goods exports surged 8% in September to $329bn in value, the largest monthly total in 2025 to date. China’s imports in value terms rose a strong 7% while its imports of coal, iron
ore and soybeans in September hit a record total of 175mt, up 15mt or 9% m-o-m and up 12mt or 7% y-o-y. No sign of a
slowdown.
This is counter-intuitive to what one reads in the press about falling GDP growth, weak household spending, property recession, deflation, and so on. China’s commitment to decarbonisation is driving its technical progress.
See the NYT article, “High Energy”, October 13, on China’s renewable roll out. Renewables overtook coal (China burns more coal than the rest of the world combined) as the world’s biggest source of electricity in First Half ‘25, mainly because China added more solar and wind capacity than the ROTW combined.
Elsewhere, it is a key backer of this week’s IMO net-zero vote, the US a vocal opponent. Newly triumphant Trump may take this as an opportunity to finally tackle the Bear. He could save energy and bandwidth by temporising his fruitless efforts to bait the Dragon.
The BDI settled at 2,069 down 133 points since last week.
The Capesize market opened the week with a sharp surge (almost $5k/day) but later eased, closing up $2,666 since last Friday at $25,882.
Monday’s surge came as the market digested news of Chinese port fees. As the drybulk segment with the most US-listed ships and reliant upon Chinese demand, Capesizes were naturally rocked by the news with fears of a shortage of ships to trade China.
Subsequent news that Chinese-built ships would be exempt, and lingering uncertainty over the scope of the charges, quickly reversed Monday’s gains on Tuesday. For the rest of the week,
rates and paper market moves were relatively steady as everyone awaits greater clarity.
On fundamentals, there was little to note; sentiment, rather than physical demand, remained the main driver. The BPI concluded at $16,446, up $573 in the trading week. The Panamax market showed a disconnect between a rallying paper market and a subdued physical segment, driven by the escalating tension
between China and the US.
In the Pacific, bullish FFA sentiment failed to translate into fixtures as Charterers stayed cautious, though steady intra- regional coal and mineral flows provided support.
In the Atlantic, early optimism gave way to slower activity and wider bid-offer spreads as everyone adopted a wait and see stance. Despite geopolitical headwinds, fundamentals held steady, with the South Atlantic showing early signs of tightening toward month-end.
The BSI finished at $17,996, up $277 in the last 7 days. The Supramax market showed improvement this week, with sentiment firming across several regions.
In the Atlantic, activity was steady, and confidence appeared to be re-building as the US Gulf showed signs of recovery and the South Atlantic maintained solid levels of demand.
The Pacific market continued to strengthen, supported by a growing number of enquiries and improved sentiment, hinting at a potential shift toward tighter conditions in the weeks ahead.
The BHSI closed on Friday at $15,937 up $244 since last week. Handysize markets also reflected this firmer tone. The BHSI has stormed above historical levels now with no signs of pulling back.
The US Gulf and European regions held steady, while the
South Atlantic remained balanced despite a modest build-up in tonnage. The lack of ballasters to and in the US Gulf continues to support strong fixing levels.
The Pacific saw a modest pick-up as participants returned from holidays; supply-demand conditions remained balanced, and rising enquiries in the Far East and Southeast Asia point to improving sentiment into next week.
Overall, the market was slightly firmer, with larger Handysizes outperforming smaller units.
Sale & Purchase
Much activity was expected and duly reported this week with 6 ships taking offers and a few others being closely negotiated.
With competition for Capesize tonnage remaining fierce where 10 parties are reported to be preparing to offer on the Rosemary (179k-dwt, 2010 Daewoo) next week; the mini-Cape market has sprung into life after a prolonged period in the wilderness.
The Japanese controlled Bastions (119,376-dwt, 2011 Sanoyas, scrubber fitted) has been sold to Greek buyers for
$16.5m. Elsewhere “Baby Hercules” (110,861-dwt, 2011 Mitsui, scrubber fitted) is reported to have seen 4 offers and under negotiations at the time of going to press.
There have not been any pure Japanese-built Kamsarmax of this age sold since June, this week’s sale of Generosity (83,480-dwt, 2011 Sanoyas) to Greek buyers for $17m sets a new benchmark.
There are three Panamaxes sold this week.
Firstly, Navios Helios (77,075-dwt, 2005 Namura) has been sold to Hong Kong based buyers for $8.25m with surveys due.
Recording a slight increase against last done Eirini P (76,466- dwt, 2004 Tsuneishi) which was sold for $8.5m with surveys passed last month.
Two Chinese-built units have been sold.
Atheras (74,475-dwt, 2006 Hudong) andPorto Limnioni (73,664-dwt, 2006 Jiangnan) which have both been sold for
$8.5m to different buyers.
Demand for Dolphin 57’s from Chinese buyers continues to show signs of recovery after some silence around Golden week. Last week’s sale of Jin Mao (56,469-dwt 2012 Jiangsu New Hantong) to Chinese buyers for $13.1m is surprisingly firm against last done Stonewell Pioneer (56,333-dwt, 2014 Taizhou Sanfu) which was sold for $14.7m last week, especially when considering that Stonewell Pioneer had surveys freshly passed and had an electronic main engine.
Finally, there are three Handysize sales to report this week.
The Turkish owned Dogan (38,391-dwt, 2013 SPP) is reported sold for $14.8m, in line with last done Atilla (37,913-dwt, 2011 Samho) which changed hands for $13.25m earlier in August.
It is learnt the OHBS unit La Bamba (37,155-dwt, 2012 Saiki) is now committed at $14.9m to Chinese buyers – largely in line with expectations.
Tanker Market
With shipowners assessing the implications of China’s newly introduced port fees, the ongoing shortage of modern tonnage and firm freight rates continue to limit the availability of competitively priced options for buyers.
A new benchmark has been set for modern handy tankers this week with the sale of Arran (34,825-dwt, 2022 Fujian Mawei) which is reported to have been picked up by London-based Union Maritime for $34m. The last vessel of a similar type sold was Golden Daisy (34,810-dwt, 2021 Fujian Mawei), for $32m in April of this year, once adjusting for the age difference, these prices seem pretty much in-line.
Elsewhere, scrubber-fitted Stavanger Poseidon (49,999-dwt, 2020 Hyundai Vietnam) has been acquired via a tender process by Pakistan National Shipping Company for $44.15m.
This is a step up on exact sister STI Maestro (47,499-dwt, 2020 Hyundai Vietnam – Scrubber) sold for $42m at the end of August.
However, last week’s Aframax sales to PNSC, their lengthy tender process means sellers can command a premium and is therefore not representative of a true market sale.
In addition, Parakou Tankers are reported to have sold PTI Nile and PTI Hudson (49k dwt, 2016 SPP) for around $33m each
with the balance of a One year timecharter to Trafigura at Circa
$18k/day.
Taking the below market rate for the timecharter into account, the price is comparatively firm compared with the sale of the sister vessel PTI Huang He in the summer for $32m on a charter-free basis.
Demand for vintage crude tonnage from Far Eastern buyers is sustained and four vessels have changed hands this week.
Dalma (306,543-dwt, 2007 Daewoo) is reported sold with survey passed at $49m. This is a premium to the last done enbloc sale of Bunga Kasturi Lima & Bunga Kastrui Enam (300,000-dwt, 2007/08 Universal) sold for $88m in August.
In the Suezmax segment, Century (159,152-dwt, 2005 HHI) is sold for high $22m with surveys due, a notable discount to the sale of Konya (163,750-dwt, 2005 HHI) sold for $28.4m with surveys freshly passed, which sold earlier this month.
Separate Chinese buyers have picked up Oceanus (150,393- dwt, 2008 Universal – SS: 07/26 DD:04/28) and Astari I (149,991-dwt, 2002 NKK Corp) at $38m and high $19m respectively.
New Building’s Update
In recent years, bulker and tanker (crude & product) demolition has remained well below the average levels seen in 2015-19.
For bulkers, average annual demolitions during 2020–2025 have dropped by 63%, to 6.5m-dwt/year, while tanker demolitions are down by 43%, averaging 4.3m-dwt.
Historically, a prolonged market downturn is needed for demolition to take place.
However, earnings (as well as future expectations of rates), in both sectors have remained above the thresholds where operating and future maintenance costs are no longer justified by rates, providing no incentive to demolish ships.
Drybulk rates surged in 2021-22, and earnings have been solid since.
Tanker rates boomed in 2022-23, whilst earnings in the past two years have also been healthy.
Strong markets have also allowed Shipowners to build substantial cash reserves, no one has been in a hurry to scrap to raise funds, as was the case in 2016.
However, there is scope for more demolition in the longer-term.
The tanker fleet is ageing, in dwt-terms 17% of the crude tanker fleet was built before 2005, for the product fleet, 43% was built before 2010, i.e. over 15y, the typical age limit for some oil majors.
A large portion of tanker tonnage is sanctioned, meaning it is unlikely to return to conventional trades.
Additionally, the new IMO regulations, if voted in a year, would significantly increase costs for older, thirstier
tonnage. It is also worth noting that large portions of the ships now approaching their third or fourth special
surveys, was built in first-generation Chinese yards, when the build quality was lower than it is today.
In the event of a freight market downturn after 2028, when the new IMO rules would kick-in, demolition could rise sharply.
For instance, the share of the drybulk fleet (in DWT terms)
aged 16y or older, is projected to rise significantly from 24% at
the start of 2025 to around 45% by start-2028 (ships built pre- 2013 in Jan-28, pre-2010 today).
The one potential stumbling point, however, may be whether there is sufficient ability to scrap enough tonnage at sufficient pace, with the increased regulatory burden being placed on Owners and Scrapyards.
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Mr Bansi Jaising – photo you have
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