HSBC Asia Economics recently released its Q4 2025 report is entitled: “Plenty to chew on”.
The preamble notes that front-loading and the AI hardware boom have boosted export volumes so far this year, but US tariffs are set to take their toll, weighing on trade and investment across Asia. It goes on.
Still, in the Year of the Snake and beyond, monetary and fiscal easing should help the region digest the impact.
Over the summer, the ‘tariff typhoon’ finally swept across the region, delivering steep US import duties on goods from Asia. Then there were signs that China’s recovery, tentative at best over the first half of the year, has started to lose steam again.
Finally, despite fizzling inflation and policy rate cuts, consumption and investment in much of Asia have failed to rebound convincingly. To be sure, it is not all bad. Growth, by and large, beat expectations in the first half of 2025, helped by front-loading of shipments to the US.
Moreover, the AI hardware boom has fuelled exports from many economies, from Korea to Thailand, specially exposed to that sector. The trouble is: much that aided growth earlier this year may not last in the coming quarters. Front-loading of shipments has come to an end and, as the cost of imported goods rises in the US due to tariffs,
even underlying demand is set to cool.
True, the AI boom may have further to run, but the massive annual gains in shipments of related goods may become harder to sustain. That is why developments in mainland China are especially important.
Should demand once more fizzle, the region would be saddled with additional dis-inflationary pressures.
Fortunately, outside of Japan, there is further scope for monetary easing to help cushion growth. Fiscal policy, too, may be deployed selectively to support demand.
Asia will continue to tick along at a decent enough clip but needs to digest plenty of shocks. There’s lots more. But, moving on.
A seemingly big announcement took place in the White House on Monday. Trump and Netanyahu heralded an imminent Israeli-Hamas ceasefire as they exchanged mutual admirations albeit, one perceived, through gritted teeth. It had all the hallmarks of yet another framework agreement with much work left to be done. Not least, getting Hamas to agree to the plan.
It may be relevant that the 5-member Norwegian Nobel Committee, that awards the annual accolade, announces its result on October 10, so time really is of essence.
Might it be Trump, Witkoff, or neither?
Embedded in the 20-point plan is a hostage-prisoner exchange, Israeli evacuation of Gaza, an apolitical transitional authority overseen by a Trump-led ‘Board of Peace’, Hamas sidelined, Gazans to stay in situ, a reconstruction program, Israel to cease settling the West Bank, a pathway to a Palestinian state, etc.
We must remind ourselves that such a state does not exist despite recent recognition of same by France, the UK, Canada and Australia.
The terms of this skeleton deal appear to be another reheat of previous proposals that were rejected. It may be an indication of desperation of the US, Qatar and other Arab states that seek an end to the conflict and lasting peace in the Middle East.
Trump’s hyperbole and downright optimism have painted him into a corner – he now must deliver. That Tony Blair might be involved in administrating a new Gaza is puzzling, he being the UK prime minister that colluded with President Bush Jr to invade Iraq in 2003 based on ‘dodgy’ intelligence. 22 years of Middle East turmoil since arguably have some of their roots in this illegal invasion.
As remarked last week, the financial and shipping markets are remarkably blasé about geopolitical and trade events that might have spooked them. Instead, as with war, we are all becoming immunised by and conditioned to bad news, there is just so much.
We are in a kind of twilight zone with markets set to become increasingly influenced by ongoing global trade chaos, bringing both spikes and dips, on top of typical supply-demand cycles.
After a good spell, the dry and wet sectors have shown signs of taking a breather, with Charterers regaining the whip hand this week.
The Baltic Capesize Index plunged to $22k/day, giving up 25% in a week.
Rumours of China boycotting some BHP iron ore may be to blame, hurting short-term sentiment.
On Sunday, Opec+ meets and is expected to approve at least another 137,000-bpd to be added to the market in November quotas, prospectively helping the large tankers.
VLCC’s have eased ~30% since their recent spike neared $100k/day. Thanks to these not unusual doses of volatility, the immediate picture for the big ships is less rosy than it was a couple of weeks ago. That said, both markets remain healthy, with strong supply fundamentals, they enter Q4 and beyond with great expectations.
The BDI settled at 1,901, down 358 points since last week.
The BCI closed at $22,595, down $7,481 since we last reported.
As Golden Week approaches, (in Japan it is 29 April – 6th May’26 – In China is 1/7th October) Capesize activity in the Pacific has slowed, with demand softening and enquiry more limited. Forward interest remains, but volumes have tapered, particularly on coal trades out of East Australia.
In the Atlantic, supply has been building while buyer interest thinned, leaving sentiment under pressure.
Accumulated prompt tonnage in the Pacific, alongside the rumours regarding the China-BHP impasse, has soured short term sentiment for the weeks ahead.
The Panamax sector had a difficult week, with sentiment turning increasingly negative.
In the Atlantic, limited fresh demand and reduced transatlantic activity kept pressure on rates, while fronthaul opportunities from the US East Coast proved insufficient to offset the growing supply of tonnage across Europe and the Mediterranean.
South America also weakened further as Charterers pressed levels.
In the Pacific, the Golden Week dampened activity, with most Chinese needs already secured and little new enquiry. This has left prompt vessels struggling to secure cover.
With paper markets offering little support, deals were concluded at softer levels.
The Supramax sector closed September on a quieter note.
Asian holidays curtailed activity, leaving sentiment in the East subdued, where Charterers continued to hold the advantage.
In contrast, the Atlantic maintained a firmer stance, though recent ex-US Gulf strength may have peaked.
The Continent and Mediterranean were steady, while the South Atlantic remained balanced.
In Asia, ample prompt tonnage added further pressure, keeping rates in the region and into the Indian Ocean under strain.
With the monsoon season winding down, cargo flow from West Coast India began to show signs of improvement, though period interest was inconsistent, with wide bids-offer gaps.
Overall, market sentiment softened, though Atlantic demand provided some stability.
The Handysize continues to climb, reflecting the strength of the sector.
In the Continent and Mediterranean, fresh demand supported activity and pushed rates slightly higher.
Scrap runs from the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp range to Turkey were reported at above $20,000 on a 37,000-dwt type.
The South Atlantic remains the strongest market within the Atlantic basin.
North Coast South America also stayed stable, with Owners expected to achieve ~$25,000 for a trans-Atlantic trip to the Continent.
On the period side, the African Lapwing (39,757-dwt, 2014) was fixed ex-Tampico for 6–8 months worldwide at $16,000 to Swire Bulk whilst
other short period deals were also concluded, underlining faith in the current levels.
The Pacific market was flat over the week, with regional holidays in Asia slowing fixing and keeping sentiment cautious.
The Far East remains relatively tight on prompt tonnage, balancing softer demand while supporting steel cargoes moving to Southeast Asia and the Indian Ocean.
In Southeast Asia, smaller Handy vessels face longer tonnage lists and increased pressure, while larger units posted firmer Australian round voyages.
Autumn and the pace of reported sales has mellowed slightly but overall continues to be fruitful.
Two sales in particular point to a strengthening of values.
A Tess58 Supramax, ND Pistis (57,814-dwt, 2015 Tsuneishi) has changed hands within the Greek market. The buyers are rumoured to be Kouros, who beat competition to secure the eco Supra for $23.2m. This is a significant step up from last done.
In the Kamsarmax sector, a yet-unknown buyers are reported to have paid $26.7m for Nord Crux (81,791-dwt, 2016 Tsuneishi Cebu) underlining gains made in Kamsarmax values in recent months.
The Newcastlemax Mineral Shougang International (206,392-dwt, 2019 Qingdao Yangfan) is sold for $65.5m. The price seems slightly cheaper than last week’s headline deal, which saw 3 x New Times- built Newcastlemaxes (2×19’blt, 1×20’blt) trade hands at $209m enbloc, albeit
the latter had scrubbers installed, which would explain a portion of the gap.
With the Chinese away for their Autumnal holidays we expect sales of their stable tonnage, Supra’s and Handies, to be quieter for the next week or so.
· US corn exports seen at record high after shift from China-bound soybeans
Farmers changed crops in response to trade war, driving down prices.
Exports of corn grown in the U.S. are expected to reach a second straight record high after farmers planted more of the food and energy crop in a move away from soybeans.
· As China seeks to end food dependence, US corn heads to Europe
Beijing buying more staple crops from South American producers amid trade tensions
U.S. Corn, a mainstay of animal fed and bioethanol, is increasingly going to Europe, Japan, South Korea and other countries as China works to end its dependence on American-grown produce.
· Can Japan eliminate US trade surplus with auto, crop imports? It’s unlikely
Exporting less and importing more could shave Japan’s GDP by 1.4% in one estimate
U.S. President Trump appears to have taken issue with Japan’s 9 trillion yen ($62 billiion) trade surplus during tariff negotiations, but options for eliminating the surplus face major practical obstacles.
· Japan’s ruling party balks at importing US rice as part of tariff deal
LDP members argue concessions would hurt country’s food security
Lawmakers in Japan’s ruling lDP are fighting a proposal to offer to import more U.S. grown rice as a part of a deal on tariffs with the U.S. administration.
· Japan walks back talk of US Treasury sale ‘card’ in trade negotiations
Tokyo won’t use sell-off option as a bargaining chip, finance minister says
Japan has no intention of using the possibility of selling its U.S. government debt holdings for advantage in trade talks with Washington, the Japanese Finance Minister Kato San said.
· ASEAN joins Japan, China and South Korea in protectionism warning
Finance and central bank chiefs reaffirm commitment to free trade
Asian finance and Central bank Chiefs on Sunday warned that barriers to trade threaten to create rifts in global economy.
Breaking News
French Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu has resigned this morning. The ally of President Emmanuel Macron was appointed just three weeks ago.
· Domestic Terror at a Manchester
Synagogue Wasn’t an Isolated Incident
Britain’s open-door migration, unchecked radicalization and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer’s recognition of a Palestinian state created the conditions for tragedy.
The most solemn day of the Jewish calendar turned into a nightmare in Manchester, England. As worshippers left Heaton Park Hebrew Congregation on Yom Kippur, a terrorist rammed his car into congregants and then attacked them with a knife. Two Jews were murdered. Others were wounded. Police shot and killed the attacker.
British Prime Minister Keir Starmer rushed home and promised that he would “do everything in my power to guarantee you the security that you deserve.” The words were welcome, but words are not enough. Jews in Britain—and Jews everywhere—must ask: How did the United Kingdom reach this point?
· Anti-foreigner sentiments on the rise as Japan faces a population crisis
Outside a train station near Tokyo, hundreds of people cheer as
Sohei Kamiya, head of the surging nationalist party Sanseito,
criticizes Japan’s rapidly growing foreign population.
As opponents, separated by uniformed police and bodyguards, accuse him of racism, Kamiya shouts back, saying he is only talking common sense.
Sanseito, while still a minor party, made big gains in July’s parliamentary election, and Kamiya’s “Japanese First” platform of anti-globalism, anti-immigration and anti-liberalism is gaining broader traction ahead of a ruling party vote Saturday that will choose the likely next prime minister.
Anti-immigrant policies, which allow populists to vent their dissatisfaction on easy targets, are appealing to more Japanese as they struggle with dwindling salaries, rising prices and bleak future outlooks.
“Many Japanese are frustrated by these problems, though we are too reserved to speak out. Mr Kamiya is spelling them all out for us,” said Kenzo Hagiya, a retiree in the audience who said the “foreigner problem” is one of his biggest concerns.
· Using helicopters and chemical agents, immigration agents become increasingly aggressive in Chicago
Storming an apartment complex by helicopter as families slept. Deploying chemical agents near a public school. Handcuffing a Chicago City Council member at a hospital.
Activists, residents and leaders say increasingly combative tactics used by federal immigration agents are sparking violence and fueling neighborhood tensions in the nation’s third-largest city.
“They are the ones that are making it a war zone,” Illinois Gov JB Pritzker said Sunday on CNN. “They fire tear gas and smoke grenades, and they make it look like it’s a war zone.”
More than 1,000 immigrants have been arrested since an immigration crackdown started last month in the Chicago area. The
Trump administration has also vowed to deploy National Guard troops in its agenda to boost deportations.
But U.S. citizens, immigrants with legal status and children have been among detained in increasingly brazen and aggressive encounters which pop up daily across neighborhoods in the city of
2.7 million and its many suburbs.
· OPEC+ plus to raise oil production by 137,000 barrels a day in November
Saudi Arabia, Russia and six other members of OPEC+ on Sunday decided to raise their production quotas by 137,000 barrels per day in November, as they continue to push for greater market share.
“In view of a steady global economic outlook and current healthy market fundamentals, as reflected in the low oil inventories, the eight participating countries decided to implement a production adjustment of 137 thousand barrels per day” from October’s levels, the group said in a statement after an on-line meeting.
The increase was less than many analysts expected, with the cartel seeking to avoid pressuring prices amid weak demand.
“OPEC+8 stepped carefully after witnessing how nervous the market had become” in light of market rumors that production could be hiked by 500,000 barrels a day, said Jorge Leon, analyst at Rystad Energy.
“The group is walking a tightrope between maintaining stability and clawing back market share in a surplus environment,” he added.
In the past few months, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Oman and Algeria have already raised their quotas by more than 2.5 million barrels a day.
OPEC+’s priority at the start of the year was to maintain prices high by limiting supply, but it changed strategy starting in April and is now seeking to gain market share from other producers such as the United States, Brazil, Canada, Guyana and Argentina.
The production increases come as the International Energy Agency forecasts that oil demand will only increase by 700,000 barrels a day between 2025 and 2026.
OPEC, generally more optimistic in its reports, expects global oil demand to increase by 1.3 million barrels a day in 2025 and by another 1.4 million in 2026.
A barrel of Brent, the global benchmark for crude, was trading below
$65 on Friday, down about 8 percent in one week, weighed down by fears of a significant production increase by the cartel.
Russia, the largest producer in the cartel after Saudi Arabia, depends on high prices to finance its war machine against Ukraine, but unlike Riyadh, has limited potential to increase production due to U.S. and European pressure on its oil sector.
The increase decided Sunday is “manageable” for Russia, said Leon+.
Russia currently produces around 9.25 million barrels per day and has a maximum production capacity of 9.45 million compared to around 10 million before the war, Homayoun Falakshahi, an analyst at Kpler, told AFP.
Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries have intensified since August, causing “an increase in Russian crude oil exports, as it cannot be used domestically,” making the country even more dependent on selling oil abroad, Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, an analyst at Global Risk Management, told.
· Police in Australia seize guns from dozens of owners who hold views rejecting government authority
Police in Western Australia have seized guns and revoked or suspended firearms permits from dozens of owners linked to what investigators describe as sovereign citizen ideologies, or views that reject government authority.
Officials linked the crackdown on firearms users believed to hold such views to the fatal shooting in August of two police officers in
Victoria state, in the country’s east. The suspect in those killings, 56- year-old Dezi Freeman, remains at large, weeks after he is said to have killed two officers visiting his rural property to serve a search warrant.
In the years before the shooting, Freeman appeared to have embraced so-called sovereign citizen views during court appearances. Members of such movements use debunked legal theories to reject government authority.
Freeman is suspected of killing Detective Senior Constable Neal Thompson and Senior Constable Vadim de Waart-Hottart and wounding a third officer. Following the shooting, investigators in Western Australia used bolstered gun laws enacted in 2024 to identify weapons owners in their state who they said held similar views to Freeman’s.
“The mission of this operation was simple and that was to validate and verify our intelligence on who may hold sovereign citizen ideologies here in Western Australia,” the state’s Police Commissioner Col Blanch told reporters on Sunday. Social media posts and information from other gun owners was used to identify those targeted.
Officers visited 70 properties over five days in late September and early October, seizing 135 firearms and suspending or revoking 44 gun licenses, Blanch said. Investigators relied on a legal provision that allows only someone who meets the standard of a “fit and proper person” to hold a gun permit.
“If you have made it very clear that you do not abide by the laws of Western Australia, set by the Parliament, then there is no way that you can be a fit and proper person,” Blanch said. In explaining the raids, Blanch said that in the past three years, six police officers in four states have been shot dead by members of the public, which he said was “unprecedented” in Australia. In 2022, two officers were shot and killed by Christian extremists at a rural property in Queensland state. The three shooters in that case — conspiracy theorists who reportedly hated the police — were shot and killed by officers after a six-hour siege in the region of Wieambilla. A South Australia police officer was shot dead in 2023. Another was killed in Tasmania in June. Shooting deaths in Australia are otherwise rare.
A 1996 massacre in the Tasmanian town of Port Arthur, where a lone gunman killed 35 people, prompted the government to drastically tighten gun laws and made it much more difficult for Australians to acquire firearms. When Western Australia’s tighter gun laws were enacted last June, the state’s government boasted that they were the strongest in the country. The changes included limiting the number of guns someone can own to 10 for most people. Meanwhile, in rural Victoria, Australia’s largest ever tactical police operation continues the search for Freeman. Hundreds of officers have traversed rugged landscapes, squeezed into caves and checked mine shafts, with no confirmed sightings of the fugitive so far. The Aug. 26 killings happened when 10 armed police officers tried to execute a search warrant at Freeman’s property in Porepunkah, a town of just over 1,000 people located 320 kilometers (200 miles) northeast of the city of Melbourne. The suspect, Freeman, fled alone, on foot and heavily armed, into dense surrounding forest. He is experienced in wilderness survival skills, officials said. Victoria’s Police Commissioner Mike Bush did not offer a reason for the search of Freeman’s property at the time, but he told reporters that attending officers included members of a unit that investigates sexual offenses and child abuse. Australian news outlets widely reported that Freeman espoused sovereign citizen beliefs, citing a 2021 video taken in Wangaratta Magistrate’s Court and published online in which he can be seen attempting unsuccessfully to arrest a magistrate and police officers during a hearing. In a 2024 finding from Victoria’s Supreme Court, where Freeman tried to challenge a lengthy suspension of his drivers’ license, a judge wrote the man had “a history of unpleasant encounters with police officers” whom he referred to in his submissions to the court as “Nazis” and “terrorist thugs.” Today we report from the southern border that almost no illegal migrants are crossing from Mexico into America, just as the numbers being deported have surged. The change began belatedly while Joe Biden was President, but has intensified under Donald Trump in 2025. An increasingly forceful military deployment explains some of it.
Europeans who might tut at such heavy-handedness should note something very similar is happening on the south of their own continent. An “invisible wall” in both places, combined with more pressure on neighbouring countries, is choking off the flow of migrants.
What if this drop lasts for years or even decades? It should become easier to defuse the anxiety of some voters if the foreign-born share
of populations stops rising. And democracies have to respond to their voters. It will also be easier to fully integrate existing migrants. But the economic and social price would probably be high. Without foreigners topping up the numbers, almost every rich country would start to see their populations slump. They are already getting old fast. The median age of an American in the 1920’s was about 25 years. Today it is over 39. People rely far more than before on health, pensions and care systems that, in turn, rely on foreign staff. The rotten state of public services (perhaps the biggest cause of voter unhappiness) is likely to worsen further without help from migrants. No one really knows what happens if the migrants stop coming—but rich countries may be about to find out.
Gazprom, a Russian state-owned energy giant under the US sanctions, is in talks to build a 5 million tonne LNG regasification terminal at Kakinada port, as part of plans to invest in Indian ports and gas infrastructure. Executives from both sides are expected to meet this week to discuss the modalities off the proposed $600 million investment. Gazprom is looking to invest in port and LNG assets in India. Currently it is in talks to set up an LNG terminal at Kakinada port.
Shipping Corpn of India weighs Joint Venture with State-owned Steel makers SAIL to buy – jointly own and operate dry bulk vessels from local yards, to strengthen the dry bulk segment and save foreign exchange paid to foreign shipping companies towards freight. SCI is currently working with Oil PSU’s to aggregate demand for 112 vessels to form a joint venture for long-term fleet augmentation. The initiative is expected to contribute to the Nation’s efforts to save $75 billion (Rs.6 lakh crore) in foreign exchange paid annually towards freight charges to foreign shipping lines. These initiatives not only reinforce India’s energy security and maritime capacity but also to boost domestic shipbuilding, repair, and ancillary industries. In September, SCI signed a MOU to form a joint venture with Public sector oil and gas companies IOC, BPCL, HPCL to buy ships from local yards.
Ammonia is gaining traction as a marine fuel, backed by regulatory progress, engine innovation and early fleet adoption. Due to high costs and infrastructure gaps, shipowners are advised to plan strategically when choosing the right future fuel. How far and fast ammonia as an alternative fuel can propel shipping decarbonization is examined in the DNV paper Ammonia in Shipping.
“The around 40 ammonia-capable ships on order put ammonia firmly in the decarbonization race,” says Linda Sigrid Hammer, Principal Consultant, Environment Advisory at DNV and lead author of the paper. “Across most barriers significant advancements have been made in the last five years, while challenges remain.” DNV’s paper analyses what it will take to get ammonia-fuelled ships approved, how to speed up the process, and practical steps for shipowners.
The paper identifies and discusses the remaining hurdles and presents them in a dashboard showing change in the status quo for ammonia fuel in 2025 compared with 2020.
Ammonia fuel rules progress
Ammonia’s toxicity requires stricter safeguards than conventional
fuels. In 2020, approvals relied on risk-based case studies.
Since then, a combination of new DNV rules introduced in 2021 and updated annually and IMO interim guidelines launched in 2024 have given designers a regulatory framework to work with until binding Code amendments enter into force.
Amendments to the IGC Code (International Code for the Construction and Equipment of Ships Carrying Liquefied Gases in Bulk) allow ammonia carriers to use cargo as fuel, with draft interim guidelines recently finalized. Binding amendments to the IGF Code (International Code of Safety for Ship Using Gases or Other Low-flashpoint Fuels) are unlikely before 2032, however.
Ammonia propulsion gains ground
Five years ago, ammonia propulsion was conceptual. By August 2025, 39 ammonia- capable ships, mainly ammonia carriers and bulkers, were on order. By late 2025 or early 2026 we will also see the first deliveries of new vessels capable to burn ammonia.
Engine developers are committed. Everllence, WinGD and J-Eng are delivering dual-fuel two-stroke engines from 2025/2026, while Hyundai’s HiMSEN H22CDF-LA four-stroke has multi-class approval.
Demonstrations, including Fortescue’s and ammonia-
fuelled tugs in Japan and China, prove operational feasibility.
Fuel-system solutions are also emerging, such as Wärtsilä’s integrated package and Alfa Laval’s FCM Ammonia. The sector has moved from theory to deployment.
How to manage ammonia’s energy density
issues
Ammonia requires nearly triple the volume of marine gas oil for the same energy, reducing range and cargo space. But design strategies, dual-fuel capability and shorter bunkering intervals make the challenge manageable.
Naval architects now weigh trade-offs between capacity, range and bunkering.
“The severity of this barrier depends heavily on ship type and trading pattern,” says Hammer. “For liner services and vessels with deck
space, solutions are easier. The space issue is now seen as a manageable design problem rather than a showstopper.”
High costs and fuel gaps slow ammonia adoption
Ammonia-fuelled newbuilds still typically cost 15–20% more than conventional designs, and for some retrofits even more. Although high, the additional cost remains within feasible limits, assuming other market conditions provide sufficient incentives.
reports studies suggest a 16% premium for a large containership, +19% for an Aframax tanker, and +15% for midsize gas carriers, while retrofitting older bulkers can be prohibitively costly at up to 60% of remaining ship value.
“Uncertainty on cost has narrowed as designs mature, but shipyards often add risk premiums for bespoke projects. Costs should fall as production scales and designs standardize, but the capital expenditure barrier is roughly as high as in 2020,” observes Hammer. “Even if ships are ready, the toughest challenges hinge on the cost barrier, in particular the fuel cost, which remains too high.”
Carbon pricing begins to close ammonia cost gap
In 2020, neither green nor blue ammonia could compete with fuel oil on cost. Green ammonia now trades at about USD 2,900 per tonne of marine gas oil equivalent (tMGOe) in Europe, about five times the price for MGO. Blue ammonia entered the market only recently and in small volumes.
Forecasts suggest costs for ammonia could fall to 1,000–1,900 USD/tMGOe by 2050, approaching parity with MGO under carbon pricing. The EU Emissions Trading System (2024), FuelEU Maritime Regulation (2025) and a potential forthcoming IMO mechanism could tilt the price balance. The gap remains large, but is narrowing.
First-generation infrastructure in place
In 2020, ammonia bunkering did not exist. By 2025, demonstrations in Australia, China, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore and the UK have proven safe transfers.
Major ports are preparing: Rotterdam completed a large pilot transfer in 2025, Singapore and Rotterdam rate themselves at Port Readiness Level 6–7, and Norway has received permission to build a terminal.
Japan has ordered the first dedicated bunkering vessel for 2027.
Ammonia carriers could drive adoption. In 2024, 274 carriers moved cargo from 38 terminals, nearly half of new orders being ammonia- capable. This logistics base could support early green corridors.
“While ammonia bunkering infrastructure has yet to materialize, the barrier level has been significantly lowered, reflecting all the preparations and demonstrations being carried out in several different parts of the world and in various segments,” says Hammer.
How can the supply of ammonia fuel be accelerated?
The transition unfolds in three phases: preparation, upscaling and stabilization. Preparation is under way, building a small pioneering fleet, training crews, and developing initial bunkering infrastructure.
Key barriers such as safety frameworks and port readiness are now low enough for this fleet to emerge. The critical obstacle remains fuel price. DNV’s paper suggests that temporary financial support mechanisms will be needed.
Hammer says: “Upscaling will require standardized frameworks and global carbon pricing to unlock investment in large-scale production. Parallel advances in fuel technologies, infrastructure and training are essential. Public–private partnerships and ammonia’s existing industrial base could accelerate progress.”
How shipowners can assess ammonia technically and economically
For shipowners, the challenge is choosing the right low-GHG fuel amid uncertain regulations and costs. Options – biodiesel, methane, methanol, ammonia – all pose risks for operations, asset value and compliance, but so does continuing with the status quo.
Ammonia in Shipping proposes a two-step framework. First, economic analysis: test long-term profitability under fuel and carbon price scenarios, regulations and availability, with sensitivity analysis to capture uncertainty. Second, technical analysis: examine design and operational impacts, including storage, bunkering, tank layouts and safety. Fuel-ready newbuilds, enabling later conversion, are recommended.
DNV offers support through its Fuel Selector service and a Ammonia as Marine Fuel Safety Handbook
For owners choosing ammonia, approval is complex but achievable. Ammonia Shipping outlines a seven-step pathway for design, approval and safe operations.
Seven steps to regulatory approval
For owners choosing ammonia, approval is complex but achievable. Ammonia Shipping outlines a seven-step pathway for design, approval and safe operations.
“Together, these approaches give shipowners structured decision support and practical guidance for deploying ammonia-fuelled vessels,” Hammer concludes. “This paper shows a path ahead for ammonia to fulfil its potential as a decarbonization option for deep-sea shipping.”
French President Emmanuel Macron gave his outgoing prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, 48 hours to negotiate with political parties in a last-ditch effort to prevent the country from falling deeper into crisis. French bond futures underperformed German counterparts in Asian trading. Gold pushed closer to $4,000 an ounce.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to get help on her plans to patch up the UK’s multi-billion-pound budgetary black hole from an unlikely quarter: inflation. By lifting the taxable value of incomes, profits and prices in cash terms, rising prices will deliver a much- needed net £5 billion boost to the chancellor’s plans, an analysis shows.
Seven steps to regulatory approval
For owners choosing ammonia, approval is complex but achievable. outlines a seven-step pathway for design, approval and safe operations.
“Together, these approaches give shipowners structured decision support and practical guidance for deploying ammonia-fuelled vessels,” Hammer concludes. “This paper shows a path ahead for ammonia to fulfil its potential as a decarbonization option for deep-sea shipping.”
French President Emmanuel Macron gave his outgoing prime minister, Sebastien Lecornu, 48 hours to negotiate with political parties in a last-ditch effort to prevent the country from falling deeper into crisis. French bond futures underperformed German counterparts in Asian trading. Gold pushed closer to $4,000 an ounce.
Chancellor Rachel Reeves is set to get help on her plans to patch up the UK’s multi-billion-pound budgetary black hole from an unlikely quarter: inflation. By lifting the taxable value of incomes, profits and prices in cash terms, rising prices will deliver a much- needed net £5 billion boost to the chancellor’s plans, an analysis shows.
Baltic Exchange Index – 07 OCTOBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
Route Description Value Change
===== ==========================================
C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV 26,629 -114
C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan 48,713 +282
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 25,780 +847
314_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage 28,856 +423
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 10,063 +200
===================================================
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 27,578 +445
Baltic Exchange Index – 07 OCTOBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2885 (+ 57)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== =======
C2 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 12.007 + 0.107
C3 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 23.967 + 0.095
C5 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 9.460 + 0.165
C7 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 12.900 + 0.064
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 22,807 +414
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 44,188 +282
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 22,605 +711
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 24,900 +480
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 6,606 + 300
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 18.000 + 0.081
========================================== ======
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 23,927 +474
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 07 OCTOBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,665 (+ 11)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ========
1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 15,045 -46
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 22,063 -57
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 15,145 +473
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,823 +123
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 14,508 -36
====== =========================================
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 14,988 +102
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ====
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 14,536 +155
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 54.029 +0.036
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 37.721 -0.065
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 07 October 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 14,536 +155
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 07 OCTOBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1425 (- 18)
Route Description Value ($) Change
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S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or B.Sea to China-S.Kor 22,067 +9
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 30,950 -686
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 14,714 -200
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 14,500 -250
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 33,443 -1171
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 15,218 +79
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 22,543 – 82
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 16,663 -242
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 18,907 -43
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 12,393 -132
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 14,965 -55
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S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 18,007 – 232
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 15,973 – 232
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 07 October 2025
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 14,714 -200
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 16,633 -242
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 12,393 -132
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S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 14,597 -193
Baltic Exchange Index – 07 OCTOBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 867 ( 0)
Route Description Value ($) Change
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HS1_38 Skaw-Pass trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 11,282 +118
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 14,829 +15
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Pass 23,733 -111
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Pass 22,229 +100
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 14,021 -4
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 12,713 -23
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 12,444 -92
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7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 15,600 -16
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2025
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