Donald Trump touted a deal with Indonesia that imposes a 19% tariff on its goods—while America gets off scot-free. “We will have full access into Indonesia,” the President said, adding that a pact with India will work “along that same line.” As part of the agreement, Indonesia will buy 50 Boeing jets and purchase a combined $19.5 billion worth of agricultural products and US energy, he later posted on social media.
Chipmakers are all systems go. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices plan to resume sales of some AI chips in China after securing Washington’s assurances that such shipments would be approved. The green-light marks a major reversal from the Trump administration’s earlier measures designed to limit Beijing’s AI ambitions.
Houston, we have a prescription. Elon Musk’s startup is said to be working on a program to develop commercial products in orbit. The plan, dubbed Starfall, would allow companies to harness the unique conditions of space, which can provide a new environment for manufacturing goods from semiconductors to drugs.
How it works: SpaceX’s Starship rocket would bring products like pharmaceutical components to space in small, uncrewed capsules. They’d then spend time in orbit —where higher levels of radiation and micro-gravity may aid research and development—before returning to Earth.
It may not work. Success relies on the operational ability of Starship, which is less than certain after a string of explosive failures over its last several test flights. If all goes well, the endeavour may position the company as a key leader in space- based R&D of commercial goods.
Defene applications are possible too, people familiar said. SpaceX is working in conjunction with the military on the program but, for now, it’s unclear how the initiative fits into an existing SpaceX contract with the US Department of Defense.

· The Next Evolution in Offshore Situational Awareness

The revolutionary Pathfinder marine radar system is built on Raymarine’s award-winning radar technology and is designed for type-approved CAT 1, CAT 2 and CAT 3 SOLAS vessels.

Pathfinder radars deliver trusted radar performance for cargo ships, superyacht, OSV and naval applications. Each system uses Raymarine’s proven solid-state technology and innovation scanner design to deliver exceptional resolution and detection capabilities even in the most challenging maritime conditions.

President Trump says the chairman of the Federal Reserve, Jerome Powell, should lower interest rates because inflation is over. Trump says the Fed should lower rates to help reduce the costs of America’s giant debt pile. He says Powell is a “stubborn mule” and should quit.

More recently, administration officials have started making noises about issues with renovations at Fed headquarters, such as cost overruns, which suggests to some that they are seeking a pretext to fire Powell.

All of which, argues the economist Rebecca Patterson in a essay, is a self-defeating strategy that will probably leave all of us worse off. The Fed’s independence from political whims is a bedrock principle that has underpinned the U.S. economy and its financial markets for decades — including your mortgage rate and car loan, if you have one. Just look to the 1970’s to see what happens when markets don’t trust the Central bank.

Patterson has charted the administration’s cavalier approach to the various building blocks of American exceptionalism, including the dollar, immigration and trade. A serious move against the Fed and its Chairman could top them all, for the worse.

· Turkish owner Manta reshuffles fleet in back-to-back S&P gas carrier and tanker deals

Bosphorus player fixes new LPG carriers with energy majors while selling its sole tanker
Manta, a low-profile and diversified Turkish shipping group, has added its exposure to the gas market while shedding the only tanker it had in its fleet.
London sources said the Istanbul-based company agreed to pay $49.5m for the 38,000-cbm Sakura Spirit (built 2017) — a Hyundai Mipo-built LPG carrier considered a staple of the trade.

· Suezmax tanker market could be jolted into life by improving VLCC rates

Brokers ponder whether dull million-barrel sector can awake from seasonal slumbers
They are split on whether a dull suezmax market can be sparked into life by better rates for bigger tankers.
One London source described the million-barrel spot sector as a snoozefest” in Asia.
“Owners will be hoping that with a firmer VLCC market, we start to see some improvement,” it said.

· Container freight rates to US return to pre-tariff levels

Trump’s policies result in a ‘quick and brief’ peak season for container shipping
Container freight rates from China to the US are back to pre-tariff levels and are unlikely to rise again this year, according to container market analysts.
That is a result of US tariff policy, resulting in a “quick and brief peak season” from where freight rates look set to decline.

· Egypt looks to Asia in hopes of boosting Suez Canal car carrier traffic

Suez Canal officials say they expect traffic from the shiptype to jump by a fifth in the second half.
Egyptia authorities are hoping Asian Car Carrier lines will help boost traffic in the Suez Canal after major European lines abandoned the waterway for over 18 months to avoid being targeted by the Houthis.
Suez Canal Authority chairman Lieutenant General Osama Rabie said Tuesday saw the 9,200-ceu BYD Xi’an (built 2025) pass sail through the canal en-route from Singapore to Italy on its maiden voyage, reaffirming the waterway’s status as the main artery for trade between Europe and the Far East.
HD Hyundai eyes Morocco shipyard
South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries is eyeing a strategic leap into North Africa, as it seeks to secure long-term operating rights for Morocco’s flagship Casablanca shipyard. The latest global expansion effort comes at a time when South Korea’s largest shipbuilder aimed faces production bottlenecks at home amid a record orderbook.

With domestic shipyards operating at full capacity and a backlog of 451 vessels stretching nearly three years, HD Hyundai is turning to Morocco’s Atlantic coastline as its next major production base. The Casablanca facility — set to become Africa’s largest shipyard at 210,000 sq m — is being offered for 30-year operational rights by Morocco’s National Ports Agency. The site will include a crane, wharves, and an onshore dock.

Morocco, which currently has just 16 merchant vessels, aims to grow its fleet to 100 ships by 2040 to support trade growth. HD Hyundai sees this as a prime opportunity to capture local orders while using Morocco’s geographic advantage to attract business from European and transatlantic clients.

The initiative is part of HD Hyundai’s wider strategy to replicate its success in Vietnam and the Philippines by partnering with emerging maritime nations. The company is also deepening ties with India and the US, including recent deals with Cochin Shipyard and Edison Chouest Offshore.

Year-round Hudson Bay shipping gains momentum
The once-seasonal port of Churchill is positioning itself at the forefront of a potential shipping revolution as climate change and geopolitical shifts accelerate interest in year-round trade routes through Hudson Bay.
At a press conference this week, Chris Avery, CEO of Arctic Gateway Group — the Indigenous and northern community-led consortium that owns and operates the port — said Canada must prepare for the real prospect of year-round navigation through Hudson Bay within a generation.

University of Manitoba researchers have shown us that climate change will open up sea lanes in the Hudson Bay region for longer stretches — perhaps permanently — within the next couple of decades, Avery said.

Growing trade tensions with the US have rekindled interest in Churchill as a strategic northern export hub, with Manitoba premier Wab Kinew advocating for the port as a gateway to Europe and a key component in Canada’s broader nation-building infrastructure goals.

Federal and provincial governments have already invested millions into the Hudson Bay Railway and Churchill port to solidify Canada’s Arctic shipping capabilities. With a second weekly freight train now running, Avery announced the railway is in its best condition in over 30 years.

While some have floated the idea of building a second port on Hudson Bay at Port Nelson to avoid environmentally sensitive areas near Churchill, Avery pushed back, saying Churchill had a proven ability to balance ecological concerns with industrial activity.

A new storage facility has tripled Churchill’s capacity for critical mineral exports — a sector the federal government sees as vital for economic diversification.

The Right Way to Wield America’s Economic Power

Without Statecraft, Even the Most Powerful Tools Will Be Self-Defeating We are living in the age of economic statecraft. In just two decades, the world’s leading powers—above all, the United States—have shifted from using economic pressure sparingly to making it a default feature of foreign policy. As a result, the practice of economic coercion—sanctions, export controls, tariffs, and investment restrictions—has proliferated at breathtaking speed. Since 2000, the number of sanctioned individuals and entities worldwide has increased tenfold. Tariffs and trade barriers have quintupled globally in just five years. More than 90 percent of advanced economies now screen foreign investment in sensitive sectors, up from less than one-third a decade ago. And when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, the United States and its allies froze more than $300 billion of the foreign reserves held by Russia’s central bank in G-7 jurisdictions—crossing financial boundaries once considered sacrosanct.

Indeed, more than three years later, it is clear that Pandora’s box has been opened. In its first hundred days, the current Trump administration attempted to enact tariffs with a speed and breadth unmatched in modern history. Beijing responded by imposing controls on key minerals exports and telegraphing its capacity to throttle supply chains across strategic sectors, underscoring the reality that economic warfare is no longer the exception. It is now the main arena of great-power competition.

Yet economic statecraft holds both power and peril. Unbridled economic coercion can fracture global markets, entrench rivalry between blocs, and breed instability that risks triggering the very kinetic conflicts it aims to avoid. Despite these risks, no U.S. government doctrine has yet emerged to guide economic statecraft, nor are there institutional safeguards to protect against its abuses.

The use of military force, by contrast, has strict and long- established rules of engagement and escalation. Economic force deserves the same, or else policymakers risk deploying it without discipline or legitimacy. If the United States is to maintain its unique leadership role in the global economy, it must clearly define the objectives of economic statecraft, create the institutional capacity to match that mission, and embrace a more positive vision for the use of economic tools.

· Trump threatens Russia with 100% tariffs if war on Ukraine isn’t resolved within 50 days

President Donald Trump said Monday he would punish Russia with tariffs if there isn’t a deal to end the war in Ukraine within 50 days, the latest example of his growing frustration with Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Trump made the announcement during an Oval Office meeting with NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

“We’re going to be doing very severe tariffs if we don’t have a deal in 50 days,” the Republican president said. He said they would be “secondary tariffs,” meaning they would target Russia’s trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy.

“If we don’t have a deal in 50 days, it’s very simple, and they’ll be at 100%,” Trump said.

“I use trade for a lot of things,” Trump added. “But it’s great for settling wars.” Besides the tariff threat, Trump and Rutte discussed a rejuvenated pipeline for U.S. weapons. European allies plan to buy military equipment and then transfer them to Ukraine. Trump said there would be “billions and billions” of dollars purchased.

Rutte said Germany, Finland, Canada, Norway, Sweden, the United Kingdom and Denmark would be among the buyers to supply Ukraine. He said “speed is of the essence here,” and he said the shipments should make Putin “reconsider” peace negotiations.

Trump has long boasted of his friendly relationship with Putin, and after taking office in January repeatedly said that Russia was more willing than Ukraine to reach a peace deal. At the same time, Trump accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of prolonging the war and called him a “dictator without elections.”

But Russia’s relentless onslaught against civilian areas of Ukraine wore down Trump’s patience. In April, Trump urged Putin to “STOP!” launching deadly barrages on Kyiv, and the following month said in a social media post that the Russian leader “has gone absolutely CRAZY!” as the bombardments continued.

“It just keeps going on and on and on,” Trump said on Monday. “Every night, people are dying.”

Meanwhile, Trump’s special envoy to Ukraine and Russia, retired Lt Gen Keith Kellogg, met with Zelenskyy in Kyiv on Monday.
Zelenskyy said he had “a productive conversation” with Kellogg about strengthening Ukrainian air defences, joint arms production and purchasing U.S. weapons in conjunction with European countries, as well as the possibility of tighter international sanctions on the Kremlin.

“We hope for the leadership of the United States, because it is clear that Moscow will not stop unless it’s … ambitions are stopped by force,” Zelenskyy said on Telegram.

Russia has pounded Ukrainian cities, including the capital, Kyiv, with hundreds of drones and cruise and ballistic missiles that Ukraine’s air defences are struggling to counter. June brought the highest monthly civilian casualties of the past three years, with 232 people killed and 1,343 wounded, the U.N. human rights mission in Ukraine said. Russia launched 10 times more drones and missiles in June than in the same month last year, it said.

At the same time, Russia’s bigger army is making a new effort to drive back Ukrainian defenders on parts of the 1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front line.

Trump confirmed the U.S. is sending Ukraine more badly needed Patriot air defence missiles and that the European Union will pay the U.S. for the “various pieces of very sophisticated” weaponry.

While the EU is not allowed under its treaties to buy weapons, individual EU member countries can and are, just as NATO member countries are buying and sending weapons.

Germany has offered to finance two Patriot systems, government spokesperson Stefan Kornelius said Monday in Berlin. As far as other European countries financing more systems is concerned, that would have to be seen in talks, he said.

German Defence Minister Boris Pistorius was traveling to Washington on Monday to meet with Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth.

Germany has already given three of its own Patriot systems to Ukraine, and Pistorius was quoted as saying in an interview with the Financial Times that it now has only six.

A top ally of Trump, Republican Sen. Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, said Sunday that the conflict is nearing an inflection point as Trump shows growing interest in helping Ukraine fight back against Russia’s full-scale invasion. It’s a cause that Trump had previously dismissed as being a waste of U.S. taxpayer money.

“In the coming days, you’ll see weapons flowing at a record level to help Ukraine defend themselves,” Graham said on CBS’ “Face the Nation.” He added: “One of the biggest miscalculations Putin has made is to play Trump. And you just watch, in the coming days and weeks, there’s going to be a massive effort to get Putin to the table.”

Kirill Dmitriev, Putin’s envoy for international investment who took part in talks with U.S. officials in Saudi Arabia in February, dismissed what he said were efforts to drive a wedge between Moscow and Washington.
“Constructive dialogue between Russia and the United States is more effective than doomed-to-fail attempts at pressure,” Dmitriev said in a post on Telegram. “This dialogue will continue, despite titanic efforts to disrupt it by all possible means.”

· Oil Markets:

Oil Market Movers:

European natural gas prices have posted a five-day hot streak as Northeast Asian heatwaves drained South Korean and Japanese inventories, prompting buyers to divert cargoes there, only for Europe to confront its own sultry weather.

Front-month TTF gas futures, the benchmark for the European market, moved up to €35 per MWh ($13/mmBtu) as US President Trump’s threats to slap a 100% tariff on any buyers of Russian energy (including Central European countries such as Hungary, Slovakia or Serbia) added a layer of bullishness.

European temperatures have been above seasonal average by 2-3° C throughout July, and it is only by the end of this month that they will converge with historic norms, limiting gas inventory builds.
EU natural gas inventories stood at 63% full as of July 15, a whopping 17 percentage points below last year’s levels, suggesting that European LNG buying would speed up into August-September after June imports were 9.1 million tonnes, a 2% drop compared to May.

Market Movers

US oil major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) indicated that the Mars crude stream zinc contamination was caused by the start-up of an offshore well, prompting the US Department of Energy to release 1 million barrels of SPRs to Louisiana refiners.

Taiwan’s state-controlled energy company CPC is reportedly seeking to purchase shale gas producing assets in the US, potentially even buying parts of Aethon Energy Management’s $8 billion Haynesville portfolio in case Mitsubishi’s bid falls through.

US upstream firm Hess Energy (NYSE:HES) has relinquished its 100% held offshore Block 59 in Suriname as it failed to find new partners following the 2024 exit of ExxonMobil and Equinor.
- Abu Dhabi’s gas company ADNOC

Gas (ADX:ADNOCGAS) signed a three-year $400 million LNG term deal with Germany’s SEFE for the delivery of 0.7 million tonnes of LNG over the next three years.

Tuesday, July 15, 2025

Donald Trump’s 50-day deadline for Russia has failed to wake prices from their slumber, even as OPEC doubled down on its forecast of an exceptionally tight summer, with ICE Brent staying put slightly below the $70 per barrel mark. China’s much-sought return to relatively normal levels of refining didn’t provide any tangible boost either, most probably suggesting that the summer holiday season is taking its toll on commodity trading.

US President Donald Trump said he would impose 100% secondary tariffs on any country that buys Russian exports if Moscow does not reach a peace deal with Ukraine in the next 50 days, targeting India, China and Turkey, the three largest buyers of Russian oil.

Saudi Arabia Fires on All Cylinders. The IEA reported that Saudi Arabia’s June production soared to 9.8 million b/d, almost 0.5 million b/d higher than the Middle Eastern kingdom’s 9.367 million b/d quota for the month, indicating that Aramco has joined the ranks of OPEC+ overproducers.

China’s Refineries Finally Step Up Their Game. China’s crude oil throughput rose to 15.15 million b/d in June, an 8.5% year-over- year increase and the highest monthly reading since September 2023, as state-owned refiners maximized runs to a nationwide 80% amidst improved margins.

White House Stands with Oil, Not Whales. The Trump administration will delay by two years a final rule designating protection areas for the endangered Rice’s whale, of which only 100 specimens remain in the oil-rich waters of the Gulf of Mexico, de-risking offshore drilling until at least 2027.

Plaquemines Readies for Start of Phase 2. US LNG developer Venture Global (NYSE:VG) has started producing liquefied natural gas from Plaquemines Phase 2, pulling a record 2.9 BCf per day of feedgas, with an aim to reach full commissioning of six new liquefaction blocks by mid-2027.

Weak Home Sales Depress Iron Ore Prices. China’s new home prices posted the steepest decline in eight months last month, falling 3.2% year-over-year, dragging the iron ore futures benchmark in Dalian lower to ¥765 per metric tonne ($106/mt), with steel demand further weakened by heavy rainfall.

Drone Attacks Hamper Kurdish Oil Production. Following drone attacks that are believed to have come from areas under the control of Iran-backed militias, the Sarsang oil field in Iraqi Kurdistan was forced to halt production, only two days after the region’s largest asset in Khurmala was attacked.

Rio Tinto Sticks To Iron Guns. Mining giant Rio Tinto (NYSE:RIO) named the head of its iron ore segment, Simon Trott, as the company’s new chief executive, taking over from Jakob Stausholm, who was reportedly reluctant to commit to transformative mergers, including the one with Glencore.

India Eases Coal Power Emission Rules. India reversed a 2015 mandate to install $30 billion worth of flue-gas desulphurization (FGD) systems on coal power plants to reduce exhaust gases, exempting roughly 80% of nationwide coal capacity on the grounds that they’re outside a 6-mile radius of city limits.

Google Locks In Hydro Megadeal. US tech giant Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) signed the world’s largest corporate renewable energy deal for hydroelectricity, inking a 20-year power purchase agreement with Brookfield Asset Management for power from the latter’s two hydro plants in Pennsylvania.

India Talks to Chile to Secure Critical Minerals. The government of India is negotiating with Chile and Peru to source critical minerals under ongoing free trade deal talks, seeking to fix annual volumes of copper concentrate to be delivered as its copper dependency stands at a whopping 90%.

South Africa Softens Drilling Stance. South African authorities allowed UK-based energy major Shell (LON:SHEL) to drill up to 5 deepwater wells in the Orange Basin off the country’s west coast, marking a notable change after Pretoria’s intransigence prompted TotalEnergies to relinquish its assets.

Nigeria Keeps on Dreaming Big. Africa’s leading oil producer, Nigeria, is seeking to increase its OPEC+ production quota from the current 1.5 million b/d to 2 million b/d, even though oil theft and sabotage attacks have kept its crude production below its target since February 2025.

· Australia and China call for more dialogue, cooperation at leaders’ meeting

China is ready to work with Australia to deepen bilateral ties, President Xi Jinping said during a meeting with Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese on Tuesday in Beijing.

The meeting between the two leaders comes as China tries to capitalise on U.S. President Donald Trump’s sweeping trade tariffs by presenting itself as a stable and reliable partner. Chinese officials have expressed interest in expanding a decade-old free trade deal and cooperating in artificial intelligence.

China was willing to “promote further development in the China- Australia relationship,” Xi said in remarks at the start of the meeting.

Australia valued its ties to China, its largest trading partner, and welcomed “progress on cooperation” under the free trade deal, Albanese said in response, adding that Australia’s national interest would guide Canberra’s approach to the relationship.

“Dialogue needs to be at the centre of our relationship,” the prime minister said. “I welcome the opportunity to set out Australia’s views and interests and our thinking on how we can maintain peace, security, stability and prosperity in our region.”

Albanese is expected to meet Chinese Premier Li Qiang later on Tuesday. He has previously said resources trade, energy transition and security tensions would be key topics for discussions in Beijing.

Australia, which regards the United States its major security ally, has pursued a China policy of “cooperate where we can, disagree where we must” under Albanese.

In the run-up to the visit, China signalled repeatedly it was open to deeper cooperation. On Tuesday, the state-owned China Daily newspaper published a glowing opinion piece about the visit and said it showed countries with different political systems could still cooperate.

However, any cooperation is likely to be constrained by long- standing Australian concerns around China’s military build-up and the jailing of Australian writer Yang Hengjun.

Beijing has also separately criticised Canberra’s increased screening of foreign investment in critical minerals and Albanese’s pledge to return a Chinese-leased port to Australian ownership.

Australia’s exports to China, its largest trading partner, span agriculture and energy but are dominated by iron ore, and Albanese has travelled with executives from mining giants Rio Tinto, BHP, and Fortescue, who met Chinese steel industry officials on Monday, at the start of the six-day visit.

Bran Black, CEO of the Business Council of Australia, said Australia’s Bluescope Steel would also be at Tuesday’s business roundtable, along with China’s electric vehicle giant BYD, Chinese banking executives, Baosteel and state-run food group COFCO.

“First and foremost we use fixtures such as this to send a signal that business-to-business engagement should be welcomed and encouraged,” Black told Reuters on Tuesday.

What India is now doing to avoid a fertilizer shock.

India is the second-largest consumer of fertilizers in the world after China. To meet the demand-supply gap, India imports the critical crop nutrients from many countries.

Last week, three Indian Fertilizer firms signed a long-term supply contract with a Saudi Arabian firm for DAP – a critical crop nutrient.

India imports a significant quantity of fertilizers to meet its agricultural needs. The country’s primary fertilizer – import partners include:

Russia

A major supplier, particularly of urea and potash (MOP). In the 2022/23 financial year, imports from Russia rose significantly due to discounted prices. More recently, in January 2025, fertilizer imports from Russia saw a 25% increase compared to the previous year, with Russia becoming the main supplier for two consecutive months.

Saudi Arabia

Is also a key supplier of fertilizers, particularly urea. Imports from Saudi Arabia doubled in January 2025 compared to the previous year.

China

A major source for urea and phosphate fertilizers. India imported 18.65 lakh tonnes of urea and 22.58 lakh tonnes of P&K fertilizers from China in 2023-24.

Morocco

A significant exporter of Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) to India.

Oman

Another important supplier of fertilizers, with imports increasing by 2.6 times in January 2025.

While India relies on these imports, the government is also actively working towards reducing this dependence by increasing domestic production, particularly of urea. There’s also a focus on promoting the use of nano urea and establishing new fertilizer plants to achieve self-sufficiency in the coming years.

In 2023-24, India imported 18.65 lakh tonnes of urea and 22.58 lakh tonnes of phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilizers from China. To address the urea demand gap, India has revived several domestic fertilizer plants, adding 50.8 lakh tonnes per year. P&K fertilizers are imported commercially under the Nutrient Based Subsidy Scheme.

India imported 18.65 lakh tonne urea and 22.58 lakh tonne phosphatic and potassic (P&K) fertilisers from China during 2023-24, the government informed Parliament on Tuesday. In a written reply to the Rajya Sabha, Minister of State for Chemicals & Fertilisers Anupriya Patel said, “Government of India through Department of Fertilizers imports urea (agriculture purpose) on government account to bridge the gap between production and assessed demand.”

Indian firms plot to break free of China rare earth control:

Indian firms, along with the government, are actively taking steps to reduce their reliance on China for rare earth elements (REE’s) and magnets, particularly after China tightened export controls in April 2025. Here’s how Indian firms are strategizing to break free of China’s rare earth control:

Investing in Domestic Production:

The Indian government has launched the National Critical Mineral Mission and is considering significant incentive programs (worth up to ₹25 billion or $290 million) to encourage local production of rare earth magnets.

Tata Steel UK starts green Steel Project: The Tata Group Chairman Mr. N. Chandrasekaran on Monday held the ground- breaking ceremony at Port Talbot in UK to kickstart the construction of a Pds.1.25 billion green steel project to cut down carbon emissions by 90% at the site. The Company is transitioning from the blast furnace route to the low-emission electric arc furnace process.

In 2010, the cotton market witnessed one of the most dramatic squeezes in recent memory. Torrential monsoon rains in Pakistan and severe weather in China devastated global harvests, while demand from Asian textile manufacturers surged. As inventories dwindled, India abruptly restricted exports to protect domestic supply, sending prices skyrocketing.

Cotton futures surged past $2.00 per pound in early 2011 – levels not seen since the U.S. Civil War. The panic became visceral. Mills

in Bangladesh and China were operating with just days of inventory. In the U.S., brands like Levi’s and Hanes publicly warned of pressure on margins. The frenzy reached such a pitch that one Turkish spinner reportedly chartered a private jet to fly in bales from Central Asia – an extraordinary response to an extraordinary squeeze.

While no such jet was dispatched from Santos this week, the urgency that gripped the Panamax market felt strikingly similar. After months of stagnation, the Panamax market burst into life this week, driven by a sudden and significant tightening of tonnage in the East Coast South America (ECSA) region.

The Baltic P6 Index surged by 21.3 percent week-on-week, closing at $16,909 daily – marking one of the strongest weekly gains in recent years. To put this into perspective, over the last 385 trading weeks since 2018, only 14 have recorded a weekly increase of more than $3,000 on this index.

The pace and timing of this rally caught many off guard, particularly as early July is typically a quiet period for ECSA grain activity, nestled between the end of the soybean season and the beginning of the corn export cycle. This unexpected surge in sentiment seems to stem from mounting evidence of a supply squeeze, with charterers scrambling for tonnage and owners holding firm on offers. In a matter of days, a market that had struggled to find a floor through much of the first half of the year was reignited. The rally was particularly surprising given the time of year. July typically marks a quiet interlude for dry bulk activity in ECSA grain exports, as it falls between the end of the soybean season (March to June) and the start of the corn export window (late August through October).

Cargo availability during this stretch is usually limited, with most inland soybeans already cleared from ports and safrinha corn still making its way toward terminals. This seasonal gap often leads to softer freight rates, as owners reposition vessels or accept lower returns to bridge idle time. July, in short, is rarely the setting for such a powerful market surge. Yet this year defies that script. As demand spiked and available tonnage tightened, charterers were caught short. Owners, buoyed by a sharp shift in sentiment, pushed offers higher, with bids scrambling to catch up.
The result: a rally that pulled the entire Panamax market upward, fuelled by the very fundamentals that had long been assumed dormant. The roots of this Jolt are embedded in trade flow dynamics that have evolved throughout the year.

The campaign began on shaky ground when, in January, China suspended several major Brazilian exporters following multiple detections of pesticide residue. These firms collectively accounted for nearly a third of Brazil’s soybean exports to China in 2024. Even with an impressive March rebound, total Q1 soybean exports were up by just 0.66 percent year-on-year. However, volumes gained momentum in the following months. By the end of May, Brazil had shipped 51.6 million tonnes of soybeans – a 2.88 percent increase over the same period in 2024. In mid-May, China reinstated five of the previously suspended exporters, a move that rapidly reignited Brazilian flows to Asia. Since then, the pace has accelerated.

As of July 7, LSEG data tracked 67.4 million tonnes of soybean exports from Brazil since February – 3 percent ahead of last year’s record-breaking run, with 47.6 million tonnes headed to China. The July line-up reinforces the bullish narrative: 10.4 million tonnes are scheduled to load, a 12 percent year-on-year increase.

According to ANEC, Brazil’s July soybean exports are now expected to hit 11.93 million tonnes, up from 9.6 million tonnes in the same month last year. Driving this surge is Brazil’s massive 2025 harvest, which yielded 169.3 million tonnes of soybeans – 22 million more than in 2024. Exporters are pushing volumes aggressively, particularly as uncertainty grows around U.S. trade negotiations.

Buyers are keen to secure Brazilian product before the U.S. harvest becomes available in September, anticipating potential geopolitical risks in the second half of the year. Meanwhile, corn looms on the horizon. Brazil’s corn output is expected to reach 128.3 million tonnes this season – an 11 percent year-on-year increase.
StoneX projects corn exports at 42 million tonnes, up from 38.5 million in the previous cycle. But logistical friction may emerge as soybean and corn cargoes begin competing for terminal capacity. Should Chinese demand for soybeans remain firm, corn may face port congestion and scheduling conflicts.

For months, the Panamax segment was weighed down by oversupply and tepid demand. Then, almost overnight, a spark caught fire. Owners stopped chasing stems; Charterers began chasing ships. The charts moved, the sentiment flipped, and the market roared back to life. As history often reminds us, turnarounds in commodity and shipping markets sometimes come not with a whisper, but with a bang.

Capesize
Despite growing concerns over global trade flows, iron ore prices have displayed remarkable stability so far in 2025. This resilience has persisted even amid lingering uncertainty around international trade and ongoing questions about the robustness of China’s recovery. On Friday, iron ore futures edged higher and were on track for a third consecutive weekly gain, supported by renewed expectations that Beijing’s crackdown on steel price wars may usher in a new phase of reforms aimed at curbing overcapacity in the sector. Mirroring these trends, the Baltic Capesize Index posted a weekly gain of 13.4 percent, closing at $17,453 per day despite some volatility earlier in the week.

Pacific
In the Pacific market, China’s economic uncertainties continued to weigh on iron ore demand. According to Kpler, seaborne imports into China reached 604.8 million tonnes between January and June 2025, representing a 4 percent decline compared to the same period last year. Other key importers also recorded lower volumes.

Japan’s first half imports fell to 43.85 million tonnes from 45.13 million, while South Korea brought in 34.69 million tonnes, down from 36.35 million.

European buyers similarly cut back, with imports totalling 40.17 million tonnes, compared to 41.33 million in the first six months of 2024.

Altogether, global seaborne iron ore imports contracted by 3 percent year-on-year in the first half, amounting to 818.01 million tonnes.

Despite softer demand, iron ore prices remained relatively firm due in part to constrained supply. Australia shipped 460.02 million tonnes in the first half of 2025, slightly below the 464.34 million tonnes recorded a year earlier. Brazil marginally increased its shipments to 179.15 million tonnes, while volumes from South Africa and Canada held steady.

In the spot freight market, the Pacific began the week on a steady footing, underpinned by continued iron ore flows out of Western Australia and new cargoes entering the market. Rates came under pressure mid- week but were lifted again by strong paper market sentiment heading into the weekend. The benchmark C5 West Australia–Qingdao route closed 10.4 percent higher week-on-week at $8.22 per metric tonne.

On the time charter side, the Pacific round voyage (C10_14) settled at $15,814 per day, marking an increase of approximately 29 percent from the previous week.

Fixture activity reflected the strength in the basin, with Rio Tinto covering a TBN 170,000/10 cargo from Dampier to Qingdao, loading between 26 and 28 July, at a rate of $7.50 per metric tonne.

BHP also booked a TBN vessel to carry a 160,000/10 stem from Port Hedland to Qingdao for 27–29 July at $7.60 per metric tonne. At the ports, iron ore inventories in China declined further.

As of July 10, stockpiles at major Chinese ports monitored dropped by 1.1 million tonnes to reach 137.7 million tonnes, the lowest level recorded since March 2024.

In the Atlantic basin, Brazil’s iron ore exports extended their upward momentum into a fourth consecutive month in June. Volumes reached 36.3 million tonnes, the highest monthly total since October last year. This represents a 4 percent increase over May and a 9.8 percent rise compared to June 2024, based on preliminary data from Comex Stat. However, combined iron ore shipments from 20 ports and 17 mining companies across Australia and Brazil declined for the second consecutive week, totalling 24.2 million tonnes between June 30 and July 6. This marks a drop of 3.7 million tonnes, or 13.3 percent, from the previous week, with Australia being the main contributor to the decline.

While the Atlantic spot market traded sideways for most of the week, the C3 Tubarao–Qingdao route strengthened toward the close, ending the week at $19.985 per metric tonne, a weekly increase of 7 percent.

In the fixture market, the ‘Norma Ocean’ (181,488 dwt, 2013) was reported fixed for a 170,000/10 stem ex Tubarao, with West Africa option, loading 1–6 August for a trip to Qingdao at $18.70 per metric tonne with Cargill.

In the North Atlantic, the transatlantic round voyage (C8_14) gained considerable ground on the final trading day of the week, settling at $19,929 per day, a rise of 12.5 percent compared to the previous week. Meanwhile, the fronthaul market saw some softening, with the C9_14 route falling by 3 percent to close at $37,150 per day.

Notable fixtures included Glencore taking an NSU TBN vessel from Seven Islands for loading between 20 July and 5 August to Qingdao at $24.75 per metric tonne. Additionally, a Costamare TBN was fixed via

Narvik for a 23 July–1 August laycan to Erdemir at $11.95 per metric tonne, with Erdemir as the charterer.

Despite firming sentiment in the forward freight agreement market, period activity remained limited.

Iron ore inventories in China declined further. As of July 10, stockpiles at major ports monitored dropped by 1.1 million tonnes to reach 137.7 million tonnes, the lowest level recorded since March 2024.

Panamax

A paradoxical week on the freight front, with the Cape’s wings melting faster than Icarus mid-flight, while the Panamaxes soared — up a striking 22% w-o-w, settling $16,743. The impetus behind Brazilian grain exports to China felt like watching Ronaldo Nazário in his prime: taking on an entire team single-handedly and still walking off with the win.

Pacific

The Coaltrans 2025 Conference, held in Beijing from 10–12 June, highlighted key shifts in China’s coal market. Speakers from the National Development and Reform Commission, China Electricity Council, China Iron and Steel Association, and China Coal Transport and Distribution Association indicated that national coal consumption may be near its peak. This trend is driven by expanding renewable energy capacity and structural declines in steel production. Although coal will remain a significant source of dispatchable power due to China’s emphasis on energy security and affordability, utilization rates for coal-fired generation are expected to decline. Domestic production remains elevated, and Chinese authorities are likely to reduce reliance on seaborne coal imports through policy tools such as import controls and the planned 300 MMT per-annum strategic coal reserve beginning in 2027.

According to BIMCO, global coal shipments declined 6% year-on-year in the first half of 2025, primarily due to weaker demand in China and advanced economies, which have seen increasing renewable power generation and lower steel output. Overland imports from Russia and Mongolia are rising, further displacing seaborne flows. A 19% drop in coal prices supported demand in price-sensitive South and Southeast Asian markets, though high inventories in China and India continue to weigh on imports. Meanwhile, the Panamax segment increased its coal shipment share from 49% to 54%, largely at the expense of Capesize volumes, which fell 23% year-on-year. Looking ahead, the International Energy Agency notes that China now accounts for 71% of its energy investment in clean energy, reinforcing the long-term shift away from coal.

The Pacific Panamax market saw solid gains, with P3A_82 rising 15.36% to $13,829 and P5_82 up 14.23% to $13,606. Activity was decent out of NoPac and Indonesia.

On the Atlantic commodities news, Brazil’s soybean exports continue to surge, maintaining their lead over last year’s record pace. As of July 7, LSEG reported 67.4 MMT of soybean shipments since February, 3.0% higher year-on-year with 47.6 MMT headed to China. The July 3 line-up report indicates 10.4 MMT scheduled for delivery this month, representing a 12% increase compared to July 2023.

According to ANEC, total July soybean exports are expected to reach

11.93 MMT, up from 9.6 MMT last year. This acceleration is underpinned by Brazil’s robust 2024 harvest of 169.3 MMT, 22 MMT more than in 2023, along with concerns over U.S. trade negotiations. International buyers may shift back to the U.S. once its new crop becomes available in September, prompting Brazil to expedite shipments and mitigate geopolitical risks.

LSEG estimates Brazil’s soybean exports at 108.3 MMT for 2024/25 and 112 MMT for 2025/26. Meanwhile, Brazil’s soybean meal exports are also rising, projected at 2.19 MMT for July versus 2.01 MMT a year earlier.

In contrast, Brazil’s corn exports are expected to fall to 4.34 MMT, down from 4.70 MMT last July. In the U.S., cumulative soybean exports since September have reached 46.25 MMT, up 10.4% year on-year, with total 2024/25 exports projected at 50.6 MMT. However, planting reductions and lingering uncertainty around U.S. – China trade talks are weighing on future expectations, with 2025/26 U.S. exports estimated at 47.1 MMT. The staple P6_82 route, surged 21.34% to $16,909 dominating the Atlantic market. Gains over 20% have been recorded only in 14 weeks (out of 385) since year 2018.

A notable fixture was the Tier III Oshima-built “Morphou” (82,051 DWT, 2023), fixed by Commerge at $19,400 for a trip via ECSA, to Far East. Meanwhile, transatlantic rates also jumped, with P1A_82 up 33.47% to $19,705, driven by tight tonnage and firm grain demand.

The “Seachampion” (82,032 DWT, 2022) was fixed by LDC at $20,000 for an extended T/A via Itaqui and Yanbu and redelivery Gibraltar, while P2A_82 climbed 19.39% to $24,421, reflecting strong support for front- haul business. The P6 buoyancy, combined with a lively Q3 FFA market, sparked period discussions, with significant activity observed.

However, longer-term deals struggled to pierce the $13,500 ceiling on BKI ships, suggesting market participants remain cautious about Q1 and beyond. The better-than-BKI spec Richland Singapore (82,037 DWT, built 2022) was reportedly fixed at $14,000/day for a 12-month period, with delivery at Yangjiang on 19 July for worldwide trading, with charterers remaining unnamed.

Supramax

The Supramax segment advanced for a fourth consecutive week, with firm gains led by the Atlantic basin and supported by continued strength in Asia. The BSI 10TC average rose by $1,740 week-on-week to reach $15,408, the highest since early 2023. Tight tonnage in the US Gulf and South Atlantic combined with sustained interest from the Mediterranean and Continent helped bolster Atlantic sentiment, while healthy levels of coal and clinker demand supported rates in Asia. Macro indicators remained mixed, with firm soy exports from Brazil and new wheat harvest pressure in Russia, while soft wheat exports from the EU declined. Meanwhile, declining coal volumes and steel-related curbs continued to weigh on long-term Pacific sentiment.

Pacific

In the Pacific, the BSI Asia 3TC climbed 12.7% week-on-week to $13,625. Spot demand from Southeast Asia remained robust, with the ‘Amis Hero’ (63,469 DWT, 2017) fixing an Aussie round voyage from Surabaya at $15,500. In North Asia, Tongli fixed a 63,000-tonner from Zhoushan for a clinker run to West Africa at $12,000 for the first 70 days and $13,500 thereafter. The ‘Great Fluency’ (63,392 DWT, 2016) was fixed from Xinsha for a Philippines–China run with nickel ore at $14,500.

In Southeast Asia, the ‘CP Chongqing’ (63,581 DWT, 2016) open Campha was heard fixed for a clinker trip to Bangladesh at $20,500. From the Indian Ocean, ‘BBG Confidence’ (63,409 DWT, 2018) fixed basis delivery Gangavaram for a trip via Indonesia redelivery WC India at $14,500. In South Africa, the ‘Tan Binh 267’ (56,548 DWT, 2010) was fixed from Richards Bay to Fujairah at $15,000 plus $150,000 GBB.

Atlantic

The Atlantic market displayed renewed strength, particularly from the US Gulf and South America, with strong support also seen from West Africa and the Mediterranean. Fednav reportedly took the ‘Bordeaux’ (55,621 DWT, 2011) from the SW Pass to NCSA with grains in the $22k’s, while Sofon was linked to the ‘Core Imperial’ (63,343 DWT, 2019) at $28,000 for SWP to Med with coal. Aries Bulk took the ‘Tanzanite’ (56,835 DWT, 2010) from Baltimore to India at $19,500.

In South America, the ‘Alexandra KPN’ (61,644 DWT, 2019) was fixed from San Nicolas 18 July to Continent-Med at $27,000, although some heard $27,500 to WC South America. A Recalada–East Med trip was also rumoured at $25,000.

From the Mediterranean, ‘MH Oslo’ (63,050 DWT, 2023) was fixed for a clinker run via Egypt to Abidjan at $15,000. A 63,000-tonner was heard to have fixed from the Continent via EC US to Med at $18,500.

Period activity remained healthy with several deals concluded across basins. Polaris fixed the ‘Tomini Destiny’ (63,615 DWT, 2017) from Veracruz 20/21 July for 9/11 months at $15,000. The ‘Port Nara’ (64,611 DWT, 2024) was fixed from Jacksonville for min 11 to about 13 months at $15,300, redelivery Skaw-Gibraltar with further options. Western Bulk took the ‘Beltrader’ (61,043 DWT, 2021) from Malaysia for 10–12 months at $13,300.

Earlier in the week, Heng Shun fixed the ‘Great Prosperity’ (64,726 DWT, 2024) from CJK for 3 5 months at $15,000. The ‘Amis Hero’ (63,469 DWT, 2017) was also reportedly fixed on index terms basis delivery ex- drydock China August at 108% of BSI. Market participants continue to assess rate sustainability amid a backdrop of high Atlantic demand and still developing Pacific macro trends.

The Supramax segment advanced for a fourth consecutive week, with firm gains led by the Atlantic basin and supported by continued strength in Asia.

Handysize

The Handysize market posted a modest gain this week, with positive momentum led by the Pacific. The 7TC Average closed at $11,604, reflecting a +1.8% increase week-on-week. The Pacific basin outperformed, rising +3.5%, while the Atlantic gained a more moderate +1.5%. Trading remained largely positional, as tightening tonnage in certain areas supported firmer sentiment, while others continued to contend with oversupply.

Pacific

In the Pacific, sentiment remained firm across key loading regions. The Far East saw a measured increase in demand, with tightening tonnage observed in select positions pushing Charterers to adjust bids upward. The ‘Rana’ (39,915 DWT, 2015) open in CJK was fixed for a trip to Southeast Asia in the mid $12,000s, while the ‘An Hai Vincent’ (30,634 DWT, 2007) was fixed basis delivery Jinzhou to Taiwan with general cargo at around $9,000.

For trips into the Persian Gulf and West Coast India, premiums remained firm, with levels discussed in the mid-teens range. Southeast Asia remained relatively stable. A 28,000 DWT vessel open in Singapore was fixed via Indonesia to the Far East at around $8,000, while another 28,000 DWT opening in Bangkok was fixed for a trip to the Far East in the low–mid $9,000s. One Handysize unit was reportedly fixed via Thailand to Indonesia with sugar around $7,000, though further details remained undisclosed.

Atlantic

The Atlantic presented a more mixed picture. The US Gulf softened over the course of the week amid a growing tonnage list and limited fresh cargoes, though it held slightly firmer at the week’s close. A 30,000 DWT unit was fixed for a trip with wood pellets via the US Gulf to the UK at $11,750. The ‘Yasa Osaka’ (37,403 DWT, 2023) open in Baltimore was placed on subjects for a transatlantic trip via the USEC with petcoke at $16,000, while the ‘Alda’ (39,202 DWT, 2014) was fixed from Port Canaveral to Nigeria with grains at $17,250. The “Summer Sea” 35.420tdw, 2013 was placed on subjects for a grains trip to West Coast at $14,000 APS.

The South Atlantic held firmer, drawing interest from vessels opening in West Africa and the West Mediterranean. A 32,000 DWT was fixed from Gibraltar via North Brazil to Algeria at $8,000. The ‘Belle Confidence’ (40,381 DWT, 2025) was heard to have been placed on subjects at $23,000 basis APS Recalada for a trip with iron ore to Bremen, though further details remain undisclosed. The ‘Tiziana’ (35,443 DWT, 2016) was fixed for a grains run via Fazendinha to Puerto Rico at $17,500. The region continued to benefit from steady inquiry and a more balanced tonnage list. In the Continent and Mediterranean, the market was quiet early in the week but showed slight improvement toward the end as fresh demand emerged. The ‘Gulnak’ (35,166 DWT, 2011) was fixed basis delivery north Bosphorus via CVB to Algeria with grains at $8,500– 9,000. The ‘Radius’ (36,976 DWT, 2012) and the ‘Orient Pride’ (34,408 DWT, 2010) were both reportedly placed on subjects basis delivery Constanza for grain trips to the Spanish Mediterranean and Morocco, respectively, both at $9,000. Additionally, a 35,000 DWT unit was fixed from Skaw via the Russian Baltic to the USEC at $8,500 for the first 40 days, rising to $10,000 thereafter. The ‘Dogan’ (38,692 DWT, 2013) was placed on subjects basis DOP Brunsbüttel for a fertilizers run via Russia to Indonesia at $15,000. On the period front, interest continued to surface, suggesting some stability in forward outlook. The ‘Poavosa Wisdom III’ (28,232 DWT, 2011) opening in South Korea mid-July was fixed for 3–5 months with redelivery in the Singapore–Japan range at $9,700.

The week ended on a firm note, with hopes that momentum will carry forward into the days ahead.

Sale & Purchase

As we creep deeper into the summer and approach the dog days, it seems buyers aren’t in the mood to pay more than the going rate. But this week brought whispers of market strengthening. The traditionally quiet summer period may yield an interesting tug-of-war between buyers trying to take advantage of the seasonal lull and sellers hoping to cash in on possible momentum on the horizon. There is still ample appetite out of the F.E. for handies and Supras; demand for older Supras persists, although there has been a call for slightly younger ships in recent weeks. Supply of second-hand tonnage from the same part of the world continues, from older handies to younger Capes. Capesize bulkers have enjoyed some of the spotlight recently, with a few sales reported.

The Mount K2 (177K DWT, MITSUI, 2011) was reported sold with SS/DD due to F.E. takers in the mid-high $26s mio; A sister ship was sold back in February for $27.5 mio. Sinokor offloaded 2 Capes, the ‘Pacific South’ and ‘Pacific East’ (176K DWT, 2011, Jiangsu Rongsheng and SWS, respectively), each for excess $27 mio.

In March, an SWS-blt Cape was sold in the high $27s mio. Two Chinese- built Kamsarmax sisterships made news this week: the AVICL Artemis and SDTR Dora (82K DWT, 2019, Jingling) were both rumored sold for relatively soft prices in excess of $24 mio.

A few elderly Panamax bulkers were reported this week. Sisters ‘Luck Harmony’ and Chola Virtue (77K DWT, 2003, IMABARI) found suitors at soft-ish prices in the region of $6.3-6.4 mio each. The Ivestos II (76K DWT, 2004, TSUNEISHI) was scooped up, likely by Vietnamese buyers, for a figure around mid-$8 mio, which is right where the market for such a ship has been since at least this spring.

Moving down to geared tonnage, Ultras also saw sales action this week. The eco ‘Mona Lisa’ (63K DWT, 2019, IMABARI) was purportedly sold (to Greeks) in the mid-to-high $28s mio; Just last month, a sister ship was sold for excess $31 mio. The ‘Hakata Queen’ (60K DWT, 2016, MITSUI) is rumored sold for $23 mio, a tick more than her sister sold last month, likely due to the vsl being scrubber fitted.

In another busy week for Supras, sales spanned a wide age range. The older ‘Ocean Princess’ (52K DWT, 2002, TSUNEISHI) and Chinese-blt ‘Riva Wind’ (53K DWT, 2005, Zhejiang) were sold at market levels in the high $7s mio, both with their respective SSs/DDs due.

The more modern TESS 58 ‘Medi Manilla’ (58K DWT, 2014, TSUNEISHI ZHOUSHAN) fetched a relatively soft $17.7 mio. For mid aged Supras, the ‘Juniper’ (57K, 2011, STX DALIAN) went for $12.5 mio, while the ‘Pan Rapido’ (57K DWT, 2011, COSCO ZHOUSHAN) was sold rgn $11.5 mio; market level prices, with the former fetching a premium for her Korean-affiliation.

The eco Handysize ‘Deneb Harmony’ (37K DWT, 2020, OSHIMA) went for a price between $24.5-$25 mio with surveys passed; the number is about market level looking back even as far back as early ’25.

The traditionally quiet summer period may yield an interesting tug-of-war between buyers trying to take advantage of the seasonal lull and sellers hoping to cash in on possible momentum on the horizon.

BALTIC FORWARD ASSESSMENTS – TUESDAY 15 JULY 2025 BFA CAPESIZE

PERIOD VALUE CHANGE

Jul	25 18,521$/day	138↑
Aug	25 21,008$/day	-580↓
Sep	25 22,429$/day	-609↓
Oct	25 23,467$/day	-308↓
Nov	25 22,417$/day	-246↓
Dec	25 20,746$/day	-258↓
Q3	25 20,653$/day	-350↓
Q4	25 22,210$/day	-271↓
Q1	26 14,146$/day	-167↓
Q2	26 18,958$/day	-130↓
Q3	26 22,100$/day	-150↓
Q4	26 22,750$/day	-50↓
Cal	26 19,489$/day	-124↓

BFA PANAMAX 82

PERIOD	VALUE	CHANGE
Jul	25 16,205$/day	-633↓
Aug	25 15,338$/day	-1,405↓
Sep	25 14,251$/day	-1,012↓
Oct	25 13,330$/day	-625↓
Nov	25 12,807$/day	-546↓
Dec	25 11,953$/day	-492↓
Q3	25 15,265$/day	-1,016↓
Q4	25 12,697$/day	-554↓
Q1	26 10,697$/day	-218↓
Q2	26 12,476$/day	-221↓
Q3	26 12,430$/day	-233↓
Q4	26 11,959$/day	-221↓
Cal	26 11,891$/day	-223↓

BFA SUPRAMAX 63

PERIOD VALUE CHANGE

Jul 25 15,709$/day -225↓

Aug 25 16,009$/day -808↓

Sep	25 15,667$/day	-667↓
Oct	25 14,859$/day	-467↓
Nov	25 14,234$/day	-450↓
Dec	25 13,134$/day	-450↓
Q3	25 15,795$/day	-567↓
Q4	25 14,076$/day	-455↓
Q1	26 11,592$/day	-242↓
Q2	26 13,592$/day	-184↓
Q3	26 13,559$/day	-158↓
Q4	26 13,376$/day	-91↓
Cal	26 13,030$/day	-169↓

BFA SUPRAMAX 58

PERIOD	VALUE	CHANGE
Jul	25 13,675$/day	-225↓
Aug	25 13,975$/day	-808↓
Sep	25 13,633$/day	-667↓
Oct	25 12,825$/day	-467↓
Nov	25 12,200$/day	-450↓
Dec	25 11,100$/day	-450↓
Q3	25 13,761$/day	-567↓
Q4	25 12,042$/day	-455↓
Q1	26 9,558$/day	-242↓
Q2	26 11,558$/day	-184↓
Q3	26 11,525$/day	-158↓
Q4	26 11,342$/day	-91↓
Cal	26 10,996$/day	-169↓

BFA HANDYSIZE

PERIOD	VALUE	CHANGE
Jul	25 12,088$/day	-212↓
Aug	25 12,613$/day	-325↓
Sep	25 12,663$/day	-250↓
Oct	25 12,350$/day	-200↓
Nov	25 11,938$/day	-262↓
Dec	25 11,238$/day	-225↓
Q3	25 12,455$/day	-262↓
Q4	25 11,842$/day	-229↓
Q1	26 9,288$/day	-106↓
Q2	26 11,400$/day	-113↓
Q3	26 11,538$/day	-62↓

Q4	26 11,038$/day	-25↓
Cal	26 10,816$/day	-76↓

BALTIC INDICES 15/07/2025

DRY INDEX: 1866 (+83)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 2533 (+ 166)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1990 (+41)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 1287 (+43)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 656 (+7)
BCI TC AVG $/DAY 21003 (+ 1370)
BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 17914 (+ 370)
BSI TC AVG $/DAY 16267 (+ 540)
BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 11809 (+ 120)

TIMECHARTER

‘Ranger’ 2012 82172 dwt dely Singapore 29 Jul trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $18,000 –

Bunge

‘GNS Harvest’ 2007 76598 dwt dely Weihai 20/24 Jul trip via Australia redel China $14,000 – Richland

‘Shen Hua 811’ 2013 76150 dwt dely Qinzhou 20 Jul 3/4 laden legs redel worldwide $13,500 – Oldendorff

‘Xin Hai Tong 808’ 2013 76079 dwt dely Mormugao 19/23 Jul trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $17,000

‘Parnassos’ 2017 63505 dwt dely Port Elizabeth mid Jul trip redel China $18,000 + $180,000bb – MOL

‘Jin Ping’ 2014 63485 dwt dely Sohar 11/12 Jul trip via Arabian Gulf redel Bangladesh $17,500

‘Yangze 9’ 2019 61087 dwt dely Coega prompt trip redel China intention manganese ore $17,000 +

$170,000bb – Oldendorff

‘Lily Glory’ 2023 58351 dwt dely Port Elizabeth prompt trip redel China $16,000 + $160,000bb – Lynux

‘Molyvos Luck’ 2014 57924 dwt dely Manzanillo prompt trip redel Far East $14,000 – Trafigura

‘IVS Thanda’ 2015 37715 dwt dely Maputo prompt trip via EC South America redel WC India $12,250

‘BBC Jupiter’ 2014 37135 dwt dely Tulear prompt trip via South Africa redel US Gulf at $11,500 – Ultrabulk

‘DL Lavender’ 2014 35194 dwt dely Samalaju 17/18 Jul trip via Indonesia redel Japan $11,000 – NS United

PERIOD

‘Venus Horizon’ 2012 95755 dwt dely Hong Kong 26 Jul 12 months redel worldwide $16,250

‘Green K-Max 6’ 2020 80890 dwt dely Guangdong 25/30 Jul 4/6 months redel worldwide $16,000

VOYAGES ORE

‘TBN’ 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 29/31 Jul $8.40 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc – Rio Tinto

‘Hosco TBN’ 170000/10 Tubarao option West Africa/Qingdao 5/15 Aug $21.00 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – Jiangsu

‘TBN’ 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 31 Jul/2 Aug $8.35 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – BHP

COAL

‘TBN’ 80000/10 Ponta da Madeira/Eren 1/10 Aug $23.00 fio 40000shinc/16000shinc – Vale

Baltic Exchange Index – 15 JULY 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2533 (+ 166)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== ===================================
C2 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 9.471 + 0.180
C3 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 20.995 + 0.595
C5 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 8.420 + 0.282
C7 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 14.767 + 0.417
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 28,786 + 2786
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 40,700 + 1175
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 16,909 + 914
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 17,695 + 1018
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 544 + 350
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 15.356 + 0.312

5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 21,003 + 1370

Baltic Exchange Index – 15 JULY 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
Route Description Value Change
C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV 33,270 + 2741
C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan 44,700 + 1019
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 21,029 + 986
C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage 21,238 + 1059
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 3,888 + 313
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 23,734 + 1188

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 15 JULY 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,990 (+ 41)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== =================================
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 21,450 + 541
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 27,000 + 833
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 14,883 + 422
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 9,031 + 306
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 17,427 + 54
====== =================================
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 17,914 + 370
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== =================================
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 15,111 + 661
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 55,694 + 1.214
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 42,300 + 0.236

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 16 July 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 15,094 -17

Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 15 JULY 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1287 (+ 43)
Route Description Value ($) Change
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 16,158 + 1187
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 27,557 + 1311
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 14,056 + 281
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 13,320 + 320
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 28,729 + 1043
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 11,246 + 171
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 20,486 + 1815
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 16,325 + 268
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 16,950 + 614
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 13,266 + 263
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 14,408 + 395
=========================================
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 16,267 + 540
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 14,233 + 540

Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 16 July 2025
Route Description Value($) Change
====== ===============================
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 14,244 +188
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 16,550 +225
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 13,531 +265
====== ===============================
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 14,706 +221

Baltic Exchange Index – 15 JULY 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 656 (+ 7)
Route Description Value ($) Change
========================================
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 6,171 + 128
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 8,261 + 75
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 17,867 + 67
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 15,200 + 86
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 12,206 + 112
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jp 11,425 + 150
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 11,450 + 231
========================================
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 11,809 + 120

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