BALTIC INDICES 06/05/2025

DRY INDEX: 1406 (- 15)

CAPESIZE INDEX:	2037 (- 42)
PANAMAX INDEX:	1360 (- 8)
SUPRAMAX INDEX:	957 (+ 2)
HANDYSIZE INDEX:	559 (- 1)

BCI TC AVG $/DAY 16897 (- 344) BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 12238 (- 72) BSI TC AVG $/DAY 12097 (+ 20) BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 10066 (- 14)

TIMECHARTER

‘Doukato’ 2019 85123 dwt dely Iskenderun 5/6 May trip via Taman redel India $20,500 – Catana – <Max

$160k awrp/$100k GOA>

‘Basic Adventurer’ 2023 82643 dwt dely Phu My 8 May trip via Indonesia redel India $13,000 – cnr –

<Scrubber fitted>

‘Eco Colonel’ 2012 82122 dwt dely Yokkaichi 8/10 May trip via CIS Pacific redel India $13,000 – Mizzen

‘Tiger Lily’ Cargill relet 2016 81866 dwt dely Dalian 10 May trip via Australia redel India $10,500 – cnr

‘Xin Hai Tong 802’ 2012 81680 dwt dely Hamburg 13/18 May trip via Baltic redel Singapore-Japan

$20,000 – cnr

‘Cemtex Creation’ 2013 81343 dwt dely Masinloc 6 May trip via Indonesia redel Philippines $11,750 – cnr

‘Krousson’ Costamare relet 2011 81316 dwt dely Tobata 7 May trip via Australia redel Japan $10,800 –

NS United

‘Applepie’ 2012 74930 dwt dely aps EC South America 28/30 May trip redel Singapore-Japan $16,000 +

$600,000 bb – Olam Intl

‘Jin Tong’ 2008 56983 dwt dely West Africa prompt trip China $13,500 – cnr

‘Grand Demeter’ 2011 56805 dwt dely Mina Saqr 7/9 May trip redel WC India intention limestone $12,000 –

Allianz Bulk

‘Bunun Victory’ 2023 40074 dwt dely worldwide 1 Jun/31 Jul 2 years redel worldwide at 120.5% BHSI – cnr

‘Papora Wisdom’ 2009 28344 dwt dely Singapore prompt 4-5 months redel Singapore-Japan $9,500 – cnr

VOYAGES ORE

‘TBN’ 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 22/24 May $7.90 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc – Rio Tinto

‘TBN’ 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 20/22 May

$7.90 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – BHP

COAL

‘TBN’ 75000/10 Newport News/Gangavaram 5/14 Jun

$32.00 fio 40000shinc/40000shinc – RINL – <5/5 fixture>

‘TBN’ 75000/10 Gladstone/Visakhapatnam 1/10 Jun

$14.65 fio 35000shinc/20000sshex – SAIL GRAIN

‘TBN’ 66000/10 NC South America/China 20/31 May

$35.50 fio 8000shex/8000shex – Comerge

Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 7 May 2025

Route Description Value($) Change

=====================================

S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 11,038 -62 S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 14,329 -173 S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 10,963 -87

=========================================

S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 11,971 -101

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 7 May 2025

Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change

=======================================

P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 10,261 -158

Shipping News 7.5.2025

South Korea’s largest shipbuilding group HD Hyundai has signed a partnership with A.P. Moller-Maersk to jointly develop decarbonised shipping technology and global integrated logistics services.

The two companies have signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) at the HD Hyundai Global R&D Center in Seongnam, Gyeonggi, at a ceremony attended by key figures including HD Hyundai executive vice chairman Chung Ki-sun and Maersk chairman Robert Maersk Uggla.

Through the MOU, Maersk will apply HD Hyundai’s ship decarbonisation technologies to its fleet to reduce carbon emissions, while HD Hyundai will apply Maersk’s integrated logistics services at a broader level across its subsidiaries.

Maersk’s upcoming newbuilds are set to be delivered by HD Hyundai will be equipped with navigation solution Hinas, developed by Avikus, a subsidiary of HD Hyundai, and the AI- based decarbonisation and economic operation solution Oceanwise, developed by HD Hyundai Marine Solutions.

Smaller Shipowners in danger:

Vessel Owners and Managers really where the rubber hits the road are still struggling with those things. But those risks are very much symptomatic,” adding that causal factors also include things like geopolitics, increasing tonne-miles, increasing age of vessels and the ability to source and retain crew onboard, in addition to the newer risks such as digitalisation and data literacy that people are struggling with.

These risk factors are actually putting pressure on what is already a very fragile and asymmetric system, and that is in itself an extreme risk that needs to be managed”.

Bas Van Steijnen, Chief risk officer at Nova Marine Carriers, stressed that the constantly changing landscape is causing a lot of problems for Shipowners, such as the change in rules and regulations in terms of fuels.

“We trade our ships worldwide, and the question is, will these fuels be available for everyone to take in the future? I think that, is a massive risk.”

The Global lead for dry bulk at class society ABS, thought the biggest challenge in terms of general risk when it comes to decarbonisation and alternative fuels is the fact that, for the first time, this risk is “totally outside our reach and our control”.

Greek owner and operator Meadway Bulkers has bolstered its shipbuilding programme in Japan by adding another Ultramax to its orderbook.

The George Dellaportas-led outfit has revealed a 64,000 dwt newbuilding at Imabari Shipbuilding with delivery expected in the second quarter of 2027.

Prior to this, the Athens-based company, which currently lists 15 ships in its fleet, had three Ultramaxes lined up for construction at Tsuneishi Zhoushan shipyard in China for delivery through 2026.

Meadway Bulkers was set up by George Dellaportas in 2021, while his brother Costas continued at the original company, Meadway Shipping & Trading, has since re-branded as DryDel Shipping.

The latest order will see Meadway Bulkers add six newbuilds to its fleet in the next two years, which, in addition to Ultramaxes, includes a pair of Handysize vessels, delivering from Namura Shipbuilding in the first quarter of 2026.

Boxships back up across Northern Europe

Ports across Northern Europe are dealing with “serious congestion” right now.

In Antwerp, the yard is already at 96% capacity, and reefer plugs are overloaded at 112%. Nearly half the arriving ships are waiting for a berth, and there are 52 more containerships on the way.

Bremerhaven in Germany is facing similar problems, with about 30% of ships delayed while other major ports like Rotterdam, and in the UK, Felixstowe, London Gateway, and Southampton,

are also congested due to vessel diversions from the Continent, which are sending more volume to these alternative ports.

Experts expect this congestion to last another three to four months, until alliance network adjustments kick in and volumes settle down.

Northern European ports are all challenged by heavily disrupted operations. Waiting time is too long, yard utilisation too high, and the berth line-up is extended. Strikes in France and Belgium, maintenance carried out in a traditional slack season, and record-high levels of imports leaving Asia in January, as reasons for the boxship queues.

“It’s particularly worrying right now, as Carriers are lining up an all-time high of containership capacity to carry the frustrated

US-bound Chinese-manufactured goods that will arrive 50 to 60 days from now. If the terminals are still severely congested at that time, chaos will reign”.

Linerlytica, said he expected the European box crunch to persist throughout the summer.

Linerlytica data shows carriers have reacted swiftly to remove capacity deployed on the US trades in the wake of President Donald Trump’s tariff assault on China, with 8.6% of Asia-North America west coast capacity now removed. According to Linerlytica, 27 ships for 200,000 teu have been removed from the west coast since April, with the bulk of the surplus tonnage re-deployed to the Asia-Europe and Med routes.

Major war could leave Denmark with $1bn commercial shipping losses in first year :

Warnings are included in a consultation paper for new law that proposes state-backed war risks scheme.

The Danish-flagged commercial fleet could suffer losses of nearly $1bn in the first year of a war involving the world’s major powers, according to government documents.

The calculation was made by Owner group Danish Shipping as part of the country’s preparations for a war insurance scheme, which is aimed at keeping the country’s ships working during a major conflict.

Trump says Houthis will stop attacking ships in the Red Sea

US President makes landmark announcement but details still murky
‘Neither side will target the other, including American vessels, in the Red Sea and Bab al-Mandab Strait, ensuring freedom of navigation and the smooth flow of international commercial shipping,’ Omani foreign minister Badr Albusaidi said on social media platform X.
Responses from Houthi media and officials do not explicitly say they will stop attacking all commercial vessels in the Red Sea, although there have been no reported attacks in recent months.

The week in Newbuildings: Bulk carrier orders on the rise

Indonesian shipowner orders eight ultramax bulkers from Japanese shipyard
Ultra-large boxships confirmed for Cosco subsidiary OOCL in China

Newbuilding contracts for one gas carrier, an offshore construction vessel, five tankers, 12 bulkers and 22 containerships recorded in the past week.

Donald J. Trump has just completed his first 100 days in office in this term and, by his own reckoning, it has been one of the best-

ever presidential starts. However, beyond the realms of his vivid imagination, it was been one of the worst. He had promised a “boom like no other” and he has delivered that only in the alternative sense of blowing up the S&P 500 which is down 7.9% since his inauguration. It is the third worse performance in over 50 years dating all the way back to an 11.8% drop under Gerald Ford in 1974 and a 9.7% fall under Richard Nixon in 1973. DJT follows two consecutive years of over 20% annual gains in the S&P 500. Trump blames the overhang of Biden’s term and yet Biden delivered a 10.9% rise in the index in his first 100 days in 2021.

The early effects of Trump’s tariffs are beginning to be felt widely by American consumers and companies and possibly nothing short of a complete rollback will prevent a US technical recession.

The threat of tariffs was the stick while removal of tariffs would be the carrot.

Companies making things ranging from cars and microchips to pharmaceuticals and consumer goods are investing in US production facilities, even though much of this was in train prior to Trump 2.0.

The US economy recorded a 0.3% contraction in Q1 after a 2.4% gain in Q4, inconsistent with the pledge to “Make America Great Again”.

Investors were shunning US bonds and equities and preferring gold and markets in the UK and Europe, lifting them from their gloom. China, the main overseas target for Trump’s tariffs, remains defiant. On Wednesday, Trump’s 100th day, a US- Ukraine Reconstruction and Investment Fund was established covering reconstruction and metals and minerals extraction in Ukraine. It is the culmination of a long-running saga and vital

optics to squeeze a success story into the period. Then, on his 101st day, he re-assigned Mike Waltz, his national security advisor, at the heart of the Signal leaks.

The agreement is really a prime facie non-deal but still a major triumph for Zelensky. There is no pre-condition of holding elections, each side will pay equally into the fund, there is no demand for back payments for US military assistance provided over the past three plus years, and Russia is held responsible for starting the war. Future security assistance is unclear, more implied than actual, but it is still better than anything that Europe can offer.

Putin, who is not a party to the deal, is exploiting Trump’s naivety and vanity and is refusing a ceasefire. He wants to continue fighting and to take all of Ukraine. Hence, the US has just today withdrawn from formal mediator peace talks, inviting direct negotiations. In theory, Putin will have to contend with a multi- decade US civilian presence on the ground in Ukraine as the US tries to extract slim pickings from only 5% of world ‘critical’ raw material deposits, much of which is in Russian held territory, with no refining and processing capacity in place.

China’s dominance of critical minerals and refining is a given, but we must remind ourselves that there is a glut, so prices are low. Higher prices from rising demand will increase supply. The cure for low prices is low prices, and high prices high prices, as output adjusts.

“The tables have turned, and Putin’s Russia is now in dire trouble.”

Trump’s minerals deal (really a shale gas deal) remains painful for Kyiv, but it has dashed the Kremlin’s military hopes.

The deal, allegedly heavily influenced and brokered by Starmer and Macron, happened only after steering Trump away from his pro-Kremlin infatuation.

The $350bn claim for war debt reparations and US colonial takeover of Ukraine’s infrastructure have been dropped. The fix was played to the world from the marble floors of St Peter’s in Rome, important grandstanding for the visually-obsessed US president.

The Russian war economy is exhausted as the price of Urals crude collapses from $77 in mid-January to $56 a barrel and the LNG price in Asia has fallen 30% in two months.

Xi Jinping is now trying to charm Europe as he seeks to avoid the imposition of tariffs on a diversionary flood of Chinese exports from the closed US market. His ‘no limits’ friendship with Putin is on the verge of being pragmatically revised.

The US Ukraine deal does not prevent Ukraine’s passage to EU and Nato membership, thus making it worlds apart from the dreadful US-Russian bilateral proposal. Shale gas resources from the Yuzivska field could replace half of the lost Russian gas exports to Europe, while Ukrainian pipelined gas and US LNG can replace the rest, further squeezing Putin. The 100th day deal may even be seen as a game-changer one day.

“Recessions are started by corporations, when they stop hiring people, then start firing people, then stop spending money.”

Trump wanted to claim Ukraine for $350bn in military assistance provided. The real number is well under half that, but Trump continues to repeat it. That is the out-of-date estimate of potentially unreliable Soviet-era geological surveys, regarded as absurd and fictional by many, a convenient optical illusion.

Ukraine’s economy ministry estimates that resources worth

$370bn are in Russian-occupied territory. Hundreds of billions will need to be invested.

“Critical Minerals Are a US Headache, Not an Emergency.” History tells us engineers & entrepreneurs will deliver the US from the current hysteria.

Tumbling oil prices will make it hard for Russia to finance its war effort beyond the summer. An end to the war may be in sight, but it won’t be down to Trump.

Off-ramps and China – Japan

The tariff-related news flow has gone relatively quiet over the past week even as the focus has increased on what was discussed here last week, namely cancellation of import orders and collapsing activity in West Coast US ports.

The base case here remains that the US has no leverage over China on the tariff issue, as also previously discussed. This is why Beijing has made it crystal clear that it will not cut tariffs unless the US makes the first move since it is the Trump administration which initiated this trade war. Meanwhile, it is crudely obvious that the plan of the Trump administration is to seek to isolate China by agreeing trade deals with more friendly countries, such as Japan and India.

If this pressure means Japan and India may be able to negotiate better deals with the US than might otherwise have been the case, they are unlikely to agree terms that threaten their trading relationship with China. Remember that China specifically warned last week that it will retaliate against any country that negotiates trade deals with America “at the expense of China’s interests”. In this respect, it is a reality that for many countries China is now a more important trade partner

than the US. To be precise, a total of 143 or 71% of countries traded more with China than with the US in 2024, while 107 or 53% of countries traded more than twice the amount with China that they trade with the US, based on IMF’s data on international trade in goods by partner countries (formerly Direction of Trade Statistics). This compares with 22% and 11% respectively back in 2001 when China joined WTO

India helps world’s largest nuclear fusion project cross key milestone

In a major boost for clean energy, the world’s biggest nuclear fusion project has completed its central magnet system, with India playing a critical role in building several key components..

The ITER project, underway in southern France, aims to replicate the energy of the sun by fusing hydrogen atoms to generate carbon-free power. Unlike traditional nuclear power which uses fission, nuclear fusion creates no long-term radio-active waste.

The final module of ITER’s Central Solenoid, the powerful magnet that drives the fusion reaction, was recently built in the US and will soon be installed. Once operational, it will be strong enough to lift an aircraft carrier and will form the heart of the Tokamak, ITER’s doughnut-shaped reactor.

SNIPPETS :

NAVIOS

Navios Maritime Partners: Bargain Valuation While Unlocking Value Through Buybacks, $75 Fair Value

DRY BULK

Genco tipped to raid cash reserves to keep dividends flowing Greece’s Bright Brothers sells vintage bulker for recycling

Fujian Highton sells four mid-size bulkers to Chinese leasing company for close to $60m

Vietnamese owner Vosco heads to Norway for latest bulker buy as newbuilding plans put on ice

*Capesize demand working West Africa to China routes poised for takeoff*

‘Directionless’ capesize spot market buoyed by transatlantic activity

TANKERS

Sinokor Maritime offloads former Ridgebury VLCC for huge profit

TEN takes first of 12 shuttle tanker newbuildings

Tanker rates tipped to rise alongside temperatures as Opec supercharges production

Tanker sales drop on buyer caution as asset values remain stable, despite freight rate surge

*Iran converts MR tanker into naval ship to boost drone

capability*

CONTAINERS

Container trade braced for negative growth if US-China trade war persists

Fuel moved from grounded MSC container ship to sister vessel as salvage continues

GLOBAL ECONOMY/COMMODITIES

Iranian energy exports keep flowing as Trump threatens secondary sanctions

Oil Sinks as OPEC+ Supply Surge Threatens to Swamp Global Market

*Saudi Push Into Indian Refining Is Stalling Over Crude Supply*

*Shell examines potential takeover of BP to create $266bn energy, chartering and shipping giant*

Chinese exporters ‘wash’ products in third countries to avoid Donald Trump’s tariffs – Tariffs Shrink the U.S. Economy

*How Bad Is China’s Economy? The Data Needed to Answer Is Vanishing*

Trump Suggests Some Trade Deals May Come as Soon as This Week

Trump Downplays Economic Concerns as He Looks to Cut Trade Deals

EU Set to Propose Banning Russian Gas Imports by End of 2027

Vietnam Keeps Growth Target at 8% Despite Tariff Challenges

Five Key Charts to Watch in Global Commodity Markets This Week

Saudi Oil Strategy U-Turn Still Doesn’t Have an Endgame

Saudis Warn of More Supply Unless OPEC+ Cheats Fall in Line

China Hints at Possible Thaw With US in Weighing Trade Talks

Inside the Dizzying Chaos of Running a Freight Business Under Trump

OTHER

New sulphur emission limits enter into effect in the Mediterranean

Premuda management completes buy-out of Italian tanker and bulker owner

India-Pakistan shipping trade halted after tourist massacre

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