Pratik Bijlani –
In this week’s “Shipping Number of the Week,” Niels Rasmussen, Chief Shipping Analyst at BIMCO, discusses the extraordinary expansion of container fleet capacity, which represents the greatest growth in 15 years. The fleet’s capacity has increased by 1.6 million TEU since the beginning of the year, representing an excellent 11% year-over-year rise, to 29.5 million TEU.
The first half of 2024 has been extraordinary, with the delivery of 264 new ships totalling 1.6 million TEU. This is two-thirds more than the first half of last year, establishing a new record. Despite the large number of new ships, the recycling of older boats has remained modest, with only 36 ships (51k TEU) demolished due to robust cargo volume increase and strategic rerouting via the Cape of Good Hope.
Shipowners continue to invest in new vessels, with 63 new ships (0.4 million TEU) ordered this year, maintaining a strong order book-to-fleet ratio of 19%. The order book is substantial, with deliveries scheduled through 2028, averaging 1.5 million TEU per year from 2025 to 2027.
The 12k-17k TEU category has grown the fastest, and it now accounts for 22% of the container fleet. This segment’s capacity increased by 25% year over year; accounting for roughly half of overall fleet expansion. Since 2022, it has been the key growth engine and will continue to be so, accounting for more than half of the capacity on order.
Ships larger than 17k TEU, which dominated expansion from 2015 to 2021, currently account for only 17% of total order book capacity. Due to operational constraints, the focus has moved, with the current 212 ships properly serving the primary commerce channels between Asia and Europe.
By the end of 2024, the container fleet’s capacity is expected to exceed 30 million TEU and reach 30.5 million TEU. By 2027, the current order book will include an additional 4.3 million TEU. As cargo volume growth slows, more ship recycling is projected to limit fleet expansion. Furthermore, a hypothetical return to the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes may lower ship demand.
This rapid expansion underscores the dynamic nature of the maritime industry, as it adapts to shifting demands and economic conditions.
Marex Media