In this week’s newsletter, we will take a quick look at some of the critical figures and data in the energy markets this week.
We will then look at some of the key market movers early this week before providing you with the latest analysis of the top news events taking place in the global energy complex over the past few days.
- With China’s National Bureau of Statistics
finally publishing data for December 2025, Beijing can now officially declare that 2025 saw the first annual drop in fossil- fuel power generation since 2015. - Thermal electricity generation amounted to 6.29 trillion kWh last year, down 1% from a year ago, even though coal output soared to another all-time high of 4.83 billion metric tonnes.
- China’s power demand growth seems to be slowing down in line with slackening GDP growth rates, with 2025 posting an annual rate of 5% after a 6.8% year-over-year jump in 2024.
- Even so, China now consumes more electricity than the European Union, Russia, India and Japan combined.
- Renewables accounted for more than 60% of new installed generation capacity in 2025, with total installed capacity soaring to 1,760 GW by the end of the year.
Market Movers - This Monday witnessed the busiest-ever single day of Brent crude call option trading (556,000 contracts) as market participants rushed to the market to protect themselves against sudden price spikes.
- According to Bloomberg, ICE Brent’s second-month options ‘skew’ now favours calls instead of puts, signalling the arrival of high-impact geopolitical stress ahead.
- In late December, it seemed that market sentiment on crude would make hedge funds’ net positioning negative for the first time in 16 months (and only the second time in post-COVID years), with ICE Brent balancing on the brink of net length.
- By now however, money managers are eagerly taking up long positions on crude, with the net length in ICE Brent quadrupling to 122,965 lots (as of January 06) in just three weeks.
Market Movers - Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi
(TYO:8058) has agreed to purchase Aethon Energy Management’s Haynesville basin assets for $7.53 billion, doubling the size of its current LNG equity production. - UK-based energy major Shell
(LON:SHEL) has reportedly asked Syrian authorities to withdraw from the al-Omar oilfield, the country’s largest producing asset, before the onset of the 2011 Civil War prompted a full closure. - Norwegian state oil firm Equinor (NYSE:EQNR) has made a gas and condensate discovery with its Sissel exploration well, right on the border with the UK continental shelf, with recoverable reserves up to 28 million boe.
- The Carlos Slim-controlled Mexican conglomerate Grupo Carso has agreed to purchase Lukoil’s (MCX:LKOH) two main assets offshore Mexico, the shallow-water Ichalkil and Pokoch fields, for $270 million.
Tuesday, January 20, 2025
Supply disruptions have overshadowed Trump’s Greenland antics this week in the oil markets, with a fire debilitating Kazakhstan’s largest oil field, to the extent that ICE Brent has strengthened to $65 per barrel again. Macroeconomics could dampen that bullish sentiment soon, particularly with the IEA report coming out later this week, however, if Tengiz fails to return by the end of January, curbed Kazakh supply could prompt further pricing upside.
US Crude Differentials Are Booming. According to S&P Global, a mid-February cargo of light sweet WTI lifted by Gunvor was sold at a record premium of $3.60 per barrel over Dated Brent, the highest price for a US cargo since the inclusion of the grade in the Brent basket more than two years ago.
China’s Refinery Runs Hit Record Highs. China’s refinery throughput climbed to an all-time high in 2025, averaging 14.8 million b/d across the year (equivalent to a 4% year-over-year increase), driven by the ramp-up of giant private refiner Yulong and better margins for state-owned refiners.
Syria’s New Rulers Take Back Occupied Fields. Syria’s new government under President al-Sharaa is set to regain full control over oil and gas fields in the Kurdish-controlled northeastern provinces, consolidating some 100,000 b/d of crude output from the Deir ez-Zor, Raqqa and Hasakah fields.
Fire Halts Output at Top Kazakh Site. The Chevron-operated (NYSE:CVX) TCO joint venture operating the supergiant 700,000 b/d Tengiz field onshore Kazakhstan stated that it had suspended production as a ‘precautionary measure’ after a fire broke out at the field’s power distribution systems.
Trump Cabinet Seeks to Expand Chevron’s License. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has announced that the Trump administration is moving ‘as fast as it can’ to expand the production license of US major Chevron (NYSE:CVX) in Venezuela, currently producing some 240,000 b/d.
LNG Canada Disappoints Main Stakeholders. Key stakeholders of Canada’s $29 billion LNG Canada project, UK- based major Shell (LON:SHEL) and Japanese conglomerate Mitsubishi (TYO:8058), are reportedly considering sale options for their respective stakes – 40% and 15% – in the project.
Russia’s Diesel Exports Boom. Russia’s loadings of ultra-low sulphur diesel (ULSD) from the Baltic port of Primorsk are set to exceed 2.2 million tonnes (510,000 b/d), the highest monthly level since January 2024, in a sign that the country’s refinery runs are recovering from Ukraine’s drone hits.
China Mill Blast Clouds Iron Outlook. An explosion at a steel plate factory in China’s Inner Mongolia province, killing six workers, prompted fears of imminent safety checks at the country’s plants and dragged iron ore futures traded on the Dalian Exchange lower to ¥789 per metric tonne ($113/mt).
Norway’s Oil Surge Exceeds Expectations. The Norwegian Offshore Directorate (NOD) reported that Norway’s liquids production beat official forecasts by 1.9% in December, coming in at 4.5 million boe/d, buoyed by rising crude oil output that jumped to 1.96 million b/d, up 9% month-on-month.
Peru’s Oil Industry Struggles with Strikes. Workers at Peru’s state oil firm Petroperu launched a 3-day strike this week to protest plans to privatize parts of the company, potentially impacting the $6 billion Talara refinery that ultimately led to the company’s net debt soaring to $5.5 billion.
Filipino Gas Find Boosts Outlook of Southeast Asia. The Philippines has reported its first natural gas discovery in more than a decade, finding commercial volumes of gas with its Malampaya East-1 exploration well, next to the ageing Malampaya field that remains the nation’s largest asset.
Venezuela’s Power Grid Needs Help, Now. As Venezuela’s interim president Delcy Rodriguez is pushing through a Trump- inspired set of hydrocarbon law amendments, it transpired that less than half (14.8 GW) of Venezuela’s 30 GW nameplate power generation capacity is operational.
Hungary Is Winning the Fight for Serbia. Hungary’s state- controlled oil firm MOL (BUD:MOL) has reached a provisional agreement with Russia’s Gazprom Neft to buy its majority 56.2% stake in Serbian oil refiner NIS with the deal subject to the US Treasury Department’s OFAC approval.
News
China’s electricity use has reportedly risen 5% to an all-time high, surpassing 10 trillion kWh for the first time. The current level exceeds the combined consumption of the European Union, Russia, India and Japan in 2024.
Coal production in China reportedly hit an all-time high last year despite a decline in coal-fired generation. At an annual 1.2%, the increase translated into a total of 4.83 billion tons.
The Philippines has reportedly announced its first major natural gas discovery in more than ten years.
Newbuilding
Suezmax 2 x 160,000 dwt at Daehan, Korea for delivery in 2028 – USD 86 mill each to Nordic American Tankers.
Sales/Trading Dry
Kamsarmax Miao Xiang abt 82,000/2013 Jiangsu Eastern, China (SS/DD 09/2027) – Sold for USD 16.8 mill.
Wet
Eco M/E VLCC Hunter abt 300,000/2021 Hyundai, Korea (SS/DD 03/2026) & sister Serendipity 300,000/2021 (SS/DD 06/2026) – Sold enbloc for USD 125 mill each.
Eco M/E VLCC Speherical abt 318,000/2022 Imabari, Japan (SS/DD 01/2027) Scrubber fitted – USD 130 mill.
DPP Trading LR1 Ploutos abt 74,000/2006 New Century, China (SS/DD 12/2026) – Sold for USD 13.5 mill to Middle Easter buyers.
Container
Feeder Victoria L abt 17,000/2009 Shandong Weihai, China (SS 05/2029 DD 09/2027) – Sold for USD 18 mill basis prompt delivery to MSC.
New in the Market Dry
Eco M/E Kamsarmax Three Saskia abt 82,000/2014 JMU, Japan (SS 03/2029 DD 12/2026) – Charterfree delivery March – April 2026 likely basis Spore/Japan range. An IDWAL report will be made available end February. As brokers try USD 24.5 mill. For sale
Dry
Capesize Lila Nangli abt 180,000/2011 Daehan, Korea (SS 12/2025 DD 11/2025) – Vessel is currently fixed for 5-8 months on index linked period at 88% and to be amended to 94% after passing DD.
Owners inviting best offers – we can guide you.
Eco M/E Kamsarmax Joy abt 82,000/2019 Chengxi, China (SS 11/2029 DD 12/2027) – Charterfree delivery Singapore/Japan range by arrangement.
A recent IDWAL report is available (score 81/100).
Eco M/E Kamsarmax Xin Qi Xing abt 82,000/2012 Dalian, China (SS/DD 06/2027) – Charterfree delivery in the Far East circa end February – early March 2026.
AS brokers try USD 17.5 mill.
Panamax KT Birdie abt 75,000/2011 Sasebo, Japan (SS 10/2030 DD 08/2028) – Offers invited by 15.00 Hrs (Singapore) 23rd January. Charterfree delivery 19th March – 23rd April basis Singapore-Japan range. For guidance on price, Panamax Chang Xin 66 abt 79,998/2012 Fujian, Japan (SS 6/2027 DD 11/2026) Sold recently for USD 14.0 mill.
Eco M/E Ultramax Kai Hang Fa Zhan abt 64,000/2018 Lianyungang Wuzhou, China (SS 07/2030 DD 07/2028) Scrubber fitted, 4X36t – Vessel has been fixed on a short TC until Feb-April 2026, try prompt delivery with balance attached.As brokers try USD 24.5 mill.
Wet
VLCC Mermaid Hope abt 297,000/2011 Universal, Japan (SS/DD 12/2026) & sister Mercury Hope abt 297,000/2011 (SS/DD 05/2026) – Charterfree deliveries by arrangement.
Try USD 70 mill p/v.
Suezmax Suez Enchanted abt 159,000/2007 Hyundai Samho, Korea (SS/DD 03/2027) – Prompt charterfree delivery basis AG-India end January or after one more voyage.
Owners inviting best offers – we can guide. Container
Eco M/E Feeder Feng Xin DA 29 abt 25,000/2024 Zhejiang Kaihang, China (SS 01/2029 DD 01/2027) 1498 teus, 250 reefer plugs – Charterfree delivery in early April 2026.
Try USD 24 mill.
Eco M/E Topaz-1700 Mount Cameron abt 23,000/2016 Zhejiang Ouhua, China (SS/DD 05/2026) 1730 teus, 350 reefer plugs – Charterfree delivery on completion of current employment end April – early May 2026.
Owners inviting best offers.
Period
Dry
Eco M/E Kamsarmax Kerkyra I abt 82,000/2026 Scrubber fitted – Fixed for 4-6 months @ USD 17,850 p/d – Authentic Bulk
Currency (USD base) JPY 158.338
GBP 0.74469
EUR 0.8587
CNY 6.97313
KRW 1,464.57
Commodities
Crude Oil (Brent) 64.074 MGO (Rotterdam) 648.50
VLSFO (Rotterdam) 432.00 Iron Ore USD 107.15
Indices
BDI 1,650 (+83)
BCTI 829 (-1)
BDTI 1,598 (+36)
Capesize TC average: $21,796/day (+1,623)
Panamax TC average: $13,688/day (+568)
Supramax TC average $12,257/day (+37)
Handysize TC average: $10,595/day (+17)
VLCC TC average: $103,443/day (-1,878)
Suezmax TC average: $118,491/day (-3,017)
Aframax TC average: $68,306/day (+4,368)
MR Atlantic TC average: $29,377/day (-1,507)
MR Pacific TC average: $33,725/day (+422)
Historical Indices
BDI 2258 High of 2025 (23rd July)
BDI 715 Low of 2025 (30th January)
BDI 2419 High of 2024 (18th March)
BDI 976 Low of 2024 (19th Dec)
BDI 3346 High of 2023 (4th Dec)
BDI 541 Low of 2023 (15th Feb)
BDI 3369 High of 2022 (23rd May)
BDI 965 Low of 2022 (31st Aug)
BDI 5650 High of 2021 (7th Oct)
BDI 1303 Low of 2021 (10th Feb)
The U.S. just sold $500 million of Venezuelan oil. But they deposited the money in Qatar. Not the U.S. Not Venezuela. Qatar. The 21st century will not be shaped by international law.
It will be shaped by whoever controls the accounts. Venezuela owes $170 billion to international creditors.
Bondholders. Oil companies. China. Everyone is owed money.
Any account in the U.S. or Venezuela would be immediately seized through litigation.
So the Trump administration parked the money in Qatar. A “neutral venue” where funds flow freely with U.S. approval and without risk of seizure.
This is not liberation. This is not regime change. This is not intervention.
This is the first operational deployment of a new architecture for sovereign resource capture.
The sequence:
- January 3: Capture the president
- January 6: Announce U.S. will “run” oil sector indefinitely
- January 9: Sign Executive Order shielding revenues from all creditors
- January 14: Complete first $500 million sale
Twelve days from military operation to revenue capture.
Iraq took six years to sign its first major oil contracts after 2003. Foreign companies operated under Iraqi law. Revenues went to Iraqi accounts.
Venezuela 2026: The U.S. government directly markets the oil, completes the sales, and deposits proceeds in accounts it controls in third countries.
This has never happened before. Never. Not in Iraq. Not in Libya. Not in Kuwait. Not anywhere since 1945.
The Executive Order is the key document. It declares that Venezuelan oil revenues are exempt from all creditor claims, all legal judgments, all international arbitration.
With one signature, $170 billion in legal obligations became unenforceable.
The international legal architecture built over 80 years was bypassed through a domestic Executive Order and an account in Doha.
ExxonMobil’s CEO called Venezuela “un-investible” at the White House meeting last week.
He is correct. And it does not matter.
When the U.S. government controls the revenue stream, shields it from courts, and promises to “make it real easy,” the old investment calculus is obsolete.
The template is now operational: - Designate government as narco-terrorist.
- Deploy military to capture leadership.
- Install cooperative interim authority.
- Issue Executive Order voiding all prior obligations.
- Sell resources through U.S.-controlled channels.
- Deposit proceeds in jurisdictions beyond legal reach.
Any nation with vast natural resources, a government whose legitimacy can be contested, and insufficient military deterrence just watched this template execute in real time.
Venezuela has 303+ billion barrels of proven reserves. The largest on Earth.
The U.S. now controls the revenue stream.
This is not a story about Trump or Maduro or intervention ethics.
This is the birth of a new imperial architecture that renders the post-Westphalian legal order irrelevant through financial engineering and offshore banking.
John Arnold has posted something amazing on Twitter (X) following his visit to China.
He calls China a manufacturing superpower operating at speeds the West cannot comprehend, driven by an immense engineering workforce and state-subsidized overcapacity – all well known stuff.
But, this is still important because the velocity of the Chinese manufacturing ecosystem is the biggest edge. - The bureaucratic friction that plagues Western development (and also ours) is virtually non-existent in China’s strategic sectors
- Permitting takes weeks, not years
The speed to add manufacturing capacity is stunning: - A factory making sophisticated equipment is built in just 12 months
- An entire auto plant takes only 16 months from groundbreaking to first production.
- Slack in the labour market makes it incredibly easy to staff and flex employment numbers.
This speed is underpinned by a staggering disparity in human capital. - China awards 13 lakh engineering undergraduate degrees each year, compared to just 1.3 lakh in the US.
- This 10x differential creates a dense talent market that allows China to push the frontier of R&D and commercialisation simultaneously.
Unlike the US, where friction often exists between academia and industry, Chinese universities and government research labs are tightly woven into the startup ecosystem. Their mission explicitly includes commercialisation, not just pure research.
And, well, there is a terrifying economic reality for global investors hidden here: China’s internal competition is effectively destroying global manufacturing margins.
Intense domestic competition leads to widespread overcapacity and low profitability. Once an industry is deemed “strategic,” provincial governments deploy subsidies to turn local firms into hubs.
Even if Chinese manufacturers struggle to make money due to this hyper-competition, they drive prices down so effectively that it becomes impossible to compete from the outside.
As Arnold noted, after seeing this dynamic, he came away “not wanting to invest in any manufacturing business in the rest of the world.”
That is CRAZY!
• Trump’s Year of Anarchy
The Unconstrained Presidency and the End of American Primacy – from an American Eye / View :
For most Americans and Europeans alive today, a world of anarchy probably never felt quite real. Since 1945, the United States and its allies crafted and maintained an order that while neither fully liberal nor fully international, established rules that kept the peace among the great powers, promoted a world of relatively open trade, and facilitated international cooperation. In the decades that followed, the world became more stable and prosperous.
Before that long great-power peace, however, anarchy was far from an abstraction in the developed world. The first half of the twentieth century alone featured two world wars, a global depression, and a deadly pandemic. With weak global rules and weaker enforcement mechanisms, most states had little choice but to fend for themselves, often resorting to military force. But there were still limits to what sovereign states might do in a conflict. Countries were only just beginning to project military power beyond their borders, and information, goods, and people travelled less rapidly. Even during periods of international disorder, states could do only so much to one another without risking their own demise.
Today, the most powerful country is leading the world into a different kind of anarchy. Although U.S. President Donald Trump did not single-handedly bring about the decline of the post-1945 order, he has, in his first year since returning to office, accelerated and even embraced its demise. Trump’s appetite for territorial expansion eviscerates the most powerful post-1945 norm: that borders cannot be redrawn through the force of arms. And his disregard for domestic institutions has allowed him to run roughshod over any attempts at home to check those foreign expansionist dreams.
The anarchy that is emerging under Trump, in other words, is more chaotic. It is closer to the more primitive anarchy of the political philosopher Thomas Hobbes—a world of “all against all,” where sovereign power cannot be challenged domestically or internationally. In this Hobbesian order, driven by a leader who rejects any constraints on his ability to act and who is emboldened by technology to move at a whirlwind pace, anything goes. Order may well eventually emerge from this anarchy, but that order is unlikely to be led by—or to benefit— the United States.
US markets woke up from the extended Martin Luther King Jr. holiday weekend to an overnight bond implosion in Japan and fresh threats by Donald Trump, including tariff hikes and more allusions to attacking American allies.
Japan’s 40-year bond yield hit a record amid heightened concern that a snap election called by Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi might pave the way for policies that exacerbate the nation’s finances.
Then there was American chaos to consider. Like something out of a dystopian thriller, the leader of Greenland on Tuesday warned his people to prepare for a US invasion. And having reportedly conceded that he wants to annex the massive island in part for “psychological” reasons (a 1951 treaty already gives the US free rein there militarily), the 79-year-old US president further stoked outrage with a middle-of-the-night social media post alluding to his supposed desire to annex Canada, too.
Throw in a fresh round of US tariff threats against European nations (and a sprinkling of social media insults, some in capital letters) and “Sell America” returned to markets Tuesday with a vengeance. Treasuries tumbled and the dollar slid while the S&P 500 dropped more than 2%, erasing all of this year’s gains in the steepest decline in more than three months. The VIX Index, a measure of expected stock swings, hit the highest level since November. Gold spiked to a new record of over $4,700 an ounce. Not unlike the experience of Japanese dealers earlier, it was the worst day in US markets since
Trump’s so-called liberation day.
As for what happens next, some in Europe appear ready to move on entirely. As in, move on from America. The Danish pension fund Akademiker Pension said it will exit US Treasuries by the end of the month, a once-unthinkable prospect ascribed to—among other things—Trump’s policies and the massive credit risk posed by the US itself.
You cannot put the genie back into the bottle,” said Anders Schelde, the fund’s chief investment officer. “Things might get better and more calm a few months down the road, and Trump, he can’t be re-elected, and the next president might be somewhat different,” he said. “But what comes then in five, six, 10 years?” —David E. Rovella
Gold and Greenland
Gold ! It’s, uh, still going up
For global financial markets, dealing with chaos means turning to gold, identified throughout history as protection against political instability, unbridled inflation and depreciation,” writes Matthew Winkler. Hmm. I wonder what could possibly be chaotic about the current moment…. the US takeover of Venezuela? President Donald Trump’s promise to help Iranian protesters? His continued verbal attacks on the Fed? The 1,500 troops that might be headed for Minnesota?
It’s all chaos. But the US President’s threats to take over Greenland might take the cake.
In a text that Trump later shared on social media, French
President Emmanuel Macron told him, “I do not understand what you are doing on Greenland.” And neither does Marc Champion: “The fate of this vast, ice-covered island won’t be decided by principles, but by power — and there Trump always wins,” he writes.
The EU may have what it takes to go head-to-head with the US on trade, as Lionel Laurent notes here, but Marc says Trump “sees no distinction between issues of commerce and security, treating both as leverage.”
Just by raising the Greenland issue, John Authers says Trump has shown he doesn’t trust NATO. “Even without use of force, this situation could mean the practical end of the alliance. That would leave Europe dangerously weak, and gives it an incentive to fight a territorial grab.”
In other words, chaos isn’t going away, and neither is gold’s rally.
• CMA CGM signals caution by rerouting services away from Suez Canal
CMA CGM, the world’s third-largest liner, has provided a counter-narrative to the many analysts expecting liners to flock back to the Suez Canal following the Houthis’ three- month-long ceasefire on merchant shipping.
Citing the “complex and uncertain international context”, the French liner today announced that three of its services – FAL 1, FAL 3 and MEX – that had been early returnees to the Suez last year will now reroute back to the longer Cape of Good Hope route.
Danish carrier Maersk made headlines last week by taking its first structural step back into the Red Sea, rerouting its MECL service, connecting the Middle East and India with the US east coast. Given that Maersk has been the most risk-averse out of the major carriers regarding a return to the Red Sea, the news was greeted by analysts as a likely turning point for a wholesale return to the traditional route between Asia and Europe over the coming months, something now cast into doubt by the announcement from CMA CGM’s Marseilles headquarters today.
Tension in Middle Eastern waters has grown over the last 10 days as the US and Iran have adopted an aggressive tone toward each other. Iran has said any US strike will likely lead to commercial shipping being targeted by Tehran. Iran has also been the biggest supporter of the Houthis in terms of military hardware and intelligence.
“The return to the Suez Canal route is one of this year’s key influencing factors for capacity, freight rates, transit times and fuel consumption,” commented Philip Damas, managing director of shipping consultancy Drewry.
• Performance locks in long-term aframax cover
Performance Shipping has secured long-term cover for one of its aframax tankers, fixing the P Monterey on a three-year time charter. The Nasdaq-listed Greek owner said it has entered into the contract with PBF Holding, a subsidiary of US refiner PBF Energy. The deal will see the
2011-built 105,525 dwt tanker start its employment mid- February at $31,000 per day. Under the agreement, the charter includes plus or minus 30 days at the charterer’s option. Performance Shipping said the fixture will generate around $33m in gross revenue over the minimum charter period.
The P Monterey had previously been trading on charter to ST Shipping & Transport, part of commodities group Glencore, at a rate of $28,000 per day, making the new deal a step up in earnings for the vessel.
Performance Shipping operates a fleet of 12 tankers on a fully delivered basis and has been steadily increasing its forward revenue cover. The latest fixture lifts the company’s aggregate backlog to about $349m as of January.
Chief executive Andreas Michalopoulos said the charter strengthens cash flow visibility and reflects the company’s focus on medium- and long-term employment with solid counterparties.
The deal also highlights continued interest from energy companies in securing tonnage on longer tenors, as tanker owners look to balance exposure between spot market upside and stable contract cover.
• Greenland control and tariffs threaten to destabilise transatlantic shipping
Greenland should start preparing for a possible invasion, Prime Minister Jens-Frederik Nielsen said, adding that military conflict “can’t be ruled out.” Emmanuel Macron said Trump’s trade strategy is meant to “subordinate Europe.” Scott Bessent dismissed suggestions that Europe would forcefully retaliate, even as one Danish pension fund said it was exiting Treasuries.
Donald Trump has reiterated his vow to “100%” place tariffs on European countries that oppose his demand to take control of Greenland, with liners on the north Atlantic trades already coming under pressure.
Westbound rates on the transatlantic container trades from Europe to the US are already down by 40% since the beginning of 2025, according to data from Linerlytica, a container shipping consultancy. Transatlantic container imports from North Europe to the US grew by 5.9% in 2025, but growth was already slowing in December and could be further hit by the new tariffs.
Trump announced on January 17 that eight European countries would face increasing tariffs starting at 10% on 1 February and rising to 25% on 1 June.
Lars Jensen from consultancy Vespucci Maritime pointed out via LinkedIn that similar to the announced tariffs on Iran’s trading partners, none of these exist outside of social media and are hence not yet actual law.
“It feels as if we are on the verge of some trigger event. Greenland might be it – with the new tariff threat, it clearly has the potential to push EU over the edge in terms of trade war, destroy NATO, and set the scene for a Chinese invasion of Taiwan,” suggested experts at Sea- Intelligence, a Danish liner consultancy, in their most recent weekly commentary.
In the event that the US does move to take over Greenland, Vespucci’s Jensen warned Denmark’s Maersk would have a problem in relation to Maersk Line Limited which operates US flag vessels and services the US military. The same applies to CMA CGM through APL as France has voiced strong support for Denmark and Greenland in this matter.
Turning to tankers, while there are considerable energy trading ties between the US and Europe, analysts suggest looking at earlier Trump decisions that energy tends to be eventually excluded from higher tariffs.
Energy analytics firm Wood Mackenzie notes no crude or chemical tankers have been recorded transiting to Greenland for many years. Trump’s keenness for Greenland lies in its rare earths and Arctic routes, according to Wood Mackenzie.
“Securing domestic rare earth production would allow the US to challenge Asia’s dominance, reduce reliance on vulnerable chokepoints, and strengthen economic resilience,” Wood Mackenzie observed in a new report.
“Rare earths move via geared bulk carriers offering multi- cargo flexibility, strategic nearshoring, and risk mitigation. As traditional chokepoints like the Suez Canal, Panama Canal, and Strait of Hormuz face growing geopolitical and climate risks, Greenland stands as the ‘Tollgate of the North’,” the Wood Mackenzie report argued, going on to discuss Greenland’s pivotal control of Arctic routes.
• US seizes another tanker amid shift of Venezuelan oil to Caribbean storage
Venezuelan crude cargoes previously destined for China on shadow fleet now headed to Caribbean storage hubs. Blockade continues to ensnare sanctioned tonnage; US seized Aframax Sagitta in the Caribbean on Tuesday morning.
As more Venezuelan crude eventually heads to US, more Canadian and/or US crude would be pushed into the export market.
It is still very early days, but America’s audacious plan to control Venezuela’s crude export business is showing signs of progress amid ongoing defiance of the US blockade. Owners of compliant tanker tonnage stand to benefit.
THE US takeover of Venezuela’s crude oil exports is in full swing, promising a shift of volume from shadow fleet* tankers to compliant tonnage.
Venezuelan crude exports to the US through the Chevron licence continue, US naphtha is headed to Venezuela for use as diluent, and sanctioned Venezuelan crude is moving to Caribbean storage facilities, where it is being marketed for sale by trading houses Trafigura and Vitol.
That said, there are still tankers trying to run the US blockade. The US is seeking to transition to a market in which it controls Venezuelan export flows as it simultaneously chases down the cargoes it doesn’t yet control.
US Southern Command announced that it seized the sanctioned aframax Sagitta (IMO: 9296822) in the Caribbean on Tuesday morning. It was the seventh seizure since the blockade was enacted last month.
“The apprehension of another tanker operating in defiance of President Trump’s established quarantine of sanctioned vessels in the Caribbean demonstrates our resolve to ensure that the only oil leaving Venezuela will be oil that is coordinated properly and lawfully,” said Southcom.
Shift to Caribbean storage
“The headline here is the reemergence of the Caribbean as a key outlet,” said Claire Jungman, director of maritime risk and intelligence for Vortexa, during a Vortexa online presentation on Tuesday prior to the Southcom announcement.
Since the US blockade of Venezuelan exports began on December 10, “around 20% of Venezuela’s seaborne crude exports have moved into Caribbean destinations, including the Bahamas, Curacao and St. Lucia”, she said.
“That shift isn’t about end demand; it’s about clearing and logistics under pressure. Trading houses have received and moved Venezuelan crude into Caribbean storage facilities this month as part of licenced trade and repositioning activity, consistent with the new export arrangements under US supervision.
“The Caribbean is functioning as a staging and holding area. Cargoes are moving into Caribbean hubs to buy time, whether it’s waiting for downstream buyers or resale opportunities, or waiting for greater clarity around sanctions enforcement and licencing conditions, given the rapidly evolving regulatory backdrop,” she explained.
Vortexa is tracking both Venezuelan oil on the water and the percentage seized by the US. Oil on the water remains high, at around 70m barrels, while the share seized has increased from 5% in mid-December to almost 9% currently.
“Even with the seizures, the vast majority of oil on the water remains unseized, leaving meaningful volumes either exposed to further interdiction or poised for re-export or legitimate movement once greater policy clarity emerges.
“Taken together, the picture here is not one of flows stopping; it’s one of flows rerouting. The Caribbean has become the focal point because it offers optionality under pressure, even as enforcement tightens.”
It is still early in the transition, and uncertainty remains high, as highlighted by Tuesday’s seizure of Sagitta.
“The combination of elevated oil on the water, rising seizures and increased Caribbean staging suggests continued volatility and execution risk rather than stabilisation out of Venezuela,” said Jungman.
Venezuela tanker movements
Vessel-position data from Lloyd’s List Intelligence’s Seasearcher and cargo data from Vortexa show a flurry of recent moves related to the transitional Caribbean storage strategy.
The sanctioned Aframax Volans (IMO: 9422988) loaded 558,285 barrels of Merey crude in Venezuela on December 24; the ship was at anchor until January 17, when it moved to Curacao.
The sanctioned Aframax Jamaica (IMO: 9230098) loaded 453,470 barrels in Venezuela on January 1 and discharged in Curacao on January 18.
The VLCC Kelly (IMO: 9191400) loaded 1.8m barrels on December 14, remained at anchor after the US blockade was enacted, and set sail on January 13, arriving in St. Lucia on January 18.
The VLCC Marbella (IMO: 9222455) loaded 1.6m barrels on January 11 and arrived in the Bahamas on January 19; it is currently discharging.
The VLCC Rene (IMO: 9250622) loaded 1.3m barrels on December 31 and is en route to the Bahamas; it is currently passing through the Windward Passage between Cuba and Hispaniola.
Meanwhile, Venezuelan crude bound for the US under the Chevron licence, using aframaxes, is ongoing.
Carina Voyager (IMO: 9897834) loaded 569,528 barrels on January 10 and arrived in Louisiana on Tuesday.
Ionic Anax (IMO: 9802152) loaded 685,904 barrels on January 11 and is due to arrive in Texas on Thursday.
Nave Neutrino (IMO: 9971733) loaded 566,482 barrels on January 13 and is due to arrive in Texas on Friday.
Minerva Astra (IMO: 9893008) loaded 118,350 barrels on January 15 and is due to arrive in Texas on January 25.
On the Venezuela import side, the product tanker Hellespont Protector (IMO: 9351452) loaded 319,767 barrels of naphtha in Houston on January 11 and is due to arrive in Venezuela on Friday.
Long-term upside potential
The stage is set for a more substantial shift from sanctioned to unsanctioned flows — assuming the US can successfully control Venezuelan exports. Longer term, the devil’s advocate question is: Will the US Navy/US Coast Guard blockade be a permanent deployment, and if not, how would the US permanently control Venezuelan crude export flows?
In Venezuela, the prospect of the US controlling exports could add 500,000-600,000 barrels per day of heavy sour crude to global markets,” said Securities analyst Frode Mørkedal.
Braemar said in a report in Monday: “The removal of [Venezuelan President Nicolas] Maduro, blockade of Venezuelan exports on shadow tankers and control over Venezuela’s exports by the US administration pushes demand onto the compliant fleet.
Replacing Venezuelan crude in China will boost demand for compliant VLCCs. Putting aside the question of US investment increasing Venezuela’s production, Venezuela’s current 800,000 bpd is likely to shift from shadow VLCC’s to the compliant Aframax fleet bound for the US.”
Estimates that Venezuelan crude exports could rise to 1m bpd by the end of 1Q26, 1.2m bpd by the end of this year, and 1.9m bpd by the end of 2028.
If Venezuelan supply displaces Canadian Crude that arrives in the US Gulf region by pipeline, “this would increase Canadian crude exports from the US Gulf — currently 420,000 bpd — to either Asia or Europe”.
We think it is more likely that light-sweet WTI [West Texas Intermediate] would be pushed to the export market, given that Canadian crude is heavy and sour and desirable for US Gulf refineries.”.
Europe’s crude demand is not growing, and it would be unlikely to take on more lighter crudes [as] Europe is long on gasoline and short on middle distillate. We think it is most likely that WTI dislodged from the US Gulf would be sent to Asia refiners — a big positive for tonne-mile gains on compliant ships.”
Russia to expand port capacity by 56m tonnes
The country’s transport minister laid out plans for 2026 in an interview with state-owned TASS.
As part of this year’s plans, northwestern ports will see their capacity expanded by more than 15m tonnes, while a container terminal will open in Vladivostok.
Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution made clear that this isn’t all about Japan:
Whatever is going on in Japan can’t explain today’s fall in the dollar. After all, if Japan is on the brink of a debt crisis, that should cause safe haven flows into the US, which should lift the dollar. The fact that the dollar fell is therefore a separate phenomenon and a reprise of price action from April 2025, when the dollar fell sharply in the face of reciprocal tariffs.