· Trump’s squeeze of Venezuela goes beyond ‘Monroe doctrine’ – in ideology, intent and scale, it’s unprecedented
Alan McPherson, Temple University
A US military buildup in the Caribbean after weeks of naval strikes is both the latest case of intervention in Latin America and uniquely aggressive in key ways.
· Bangladesh’s accession to the UN Water Convention has a ripple effect that could cause problems with India
Pintu Kumar Mahla, University of Arizona
Bangladesh’s ratification of the UN Water Convention could increase the nation’s legal clout in transboundary water governance.
The US government shutdown is now into its second month. If it extends through tomorrow, the stoppage will surpass the record 35-day shutdown during Donald Trump’s first administration to become the longest in US history. Also in today’s newsletter:
- Key races in today’s US elections
- Business leaders urge the Supreme Court to strike down
Trump’s tariffs
- Lisa Cook makes first public remarks since Trump attacks American voters will head to the polls on Tuesday for state and local
elections in what has been seen as the first major test of Trump’s
second-term agenda since he returned to the White House in January.
In New Jersey, a tight race for the state’s next governor is being closely watched as a barometer of the country’s political mood.
The state, which spans the wealthy suburbs of New York to gritty industrial towns, has historically voted for the Democrats.
While Trump lost New Jersey to Kamala Harris by six points in the 2024 presidential election, the US president significantly closed the gap on his 16 per cent loss to Biden in the state in 2020, making it one of the largest swings towards Trump in the country.
Republicans are now hoping to build on that momentum ahead of the midterm elections next year.
For the democrats, still soul-searching following their resounding loss to Trump last year, elections in New York City and Virginia offer two very different visions of the party’s future.
- Business leaders are urging the US Supreme Court to strike down Trump’s use of emergency tariff powers ahead of the court’s landmark hearing on the issue tomorrow.
- The EU has seen a surge in American academics applying for grants, following the attacks on US universities by the Trump administration.
- The Trump family has tapped two little-known boutique banks to help finance its crypto empire. Here’s why.
- Miami realtors are hoping to cash in on an exodus of wealthy New Yorkers seeking refuge in the sunshine state if Mamdani wins in New York City’s mayoral race.
- Trump’s administration has been accused of using “bully-boy”
tactics as it sought to block a historic climate deal for shipping.
· SECRET’S OUT: ISRAEL’S F-35 UPGRADE LEFT AMERICA STUNNED AND CHANGED THE WORLD FOREVER
Since before the beginning of the State of Israel, Israel has always made it a point to do whatever it needs to do in order to have the military capabilities it needs to fight off it’s enemies. And it has always had to make do with less than it really needed.
Even today when the State of Israel is an economic wonder, it still needs to be able to make modifications on the most sophisticated equipment that it purchases from American companies. It is that edge that often makes the entire difference.
Even when Israel has strong friends in the Oval Office, it can never rely on that situation continuing for more than a few years. When Israel was attacked on October 7th, Joe Biden was in power – to whatever level he was actually calling the shots. In the early days of the war, he actually stood rather firmly alongside Israel. But, within a few months, the Democrat Party in power was clearly stalling on delivering weapons to Israel and was willing to have Israel lose more soldiers due to misplaced morals. The supposed “starvation of Hamas women and children,” a hoax that was parroted ad infinitum across the world press, made a deep impact on world opinion and led to wholesale pressure on Israel to allow in food and supplies to the enemy.
Israel’s best friend, the United States of America, occasionally decides to not be such a close friend. And that often happens when Israel needs it’s friends the most. That is why the more that Israel gains independence from it’s friends, the better it’s situation will be. This is a process, and it will take many years before most of Israel’s vital security needs are funded and manufactured in Israel. This is a goal that Prime Minister Netanyahu announced in Congress more than 10 years ago and received a standing ovation for. Friendship is not defined as much on reliance as it is based on shared ideas and morals.
But until that time comes that Israel is more independent, Israel must continue to do the little-big things that give it the competitive advantage on the battlefields.
- European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz and a host of other EU leaders will skip this weekend’s summit with Latin American and Caribbean states
in Colombia due in part to concerns over angering US President Donald Trump.
As reported his morning, only five European leaders and three peers from Latin American and the Caribbean have confirmed they will take part in the gathering — a follow-up to the well-attended EU-CELAC summit in Brussels in 2023.
Washington’s aggressive stance in the region is one reason for the drop in interest, with the EU reluctant to get dragged into the escalating stand-off.
Colombian President Gustavo Petro, who is co-hosting the summit with European Council President Antonio Costa, has been sanctioned by the US, and branded an “illegal drug leader” by Trump.
The Latin American side is pushing for Venezuela to be put on the agenda in the wake of an escalating military campaign by the US, including striking a ship off the coast of Venezuela last month killing six.
The EU is reluctant to take sides. Officials say the bloc is committed to working with the US and partners in the region to tackle organized crime, but the battle against drugs should be in accordance with international law and the principles of territorial integrity.
At a time when the EU is trying to deepen relations outside the US, the decision by most of the EU’s leaders to stay away is not a good look and suggests that fear of antagonizing Trump outweighs interest in strategic autonomy.
The news comes as the Commission today published its latest enlargement report. In the annual update on how countries are faring in their quest to join the EU, Montenegro, Albania, Moldova and Ukraine were deemed the best performers.
The bloc’s executive arm had words of encouragement — and warning
— for Ukraine, praising its “remarkable commitment” to joining the EU
but waving a red flag at rule-of-law issues.
While the enlargement notice contains lots of analysis and recommendations, ultimately the decision to admit new EU members falls to member states and any country can veto the move.
The Commission said today that Ukraine will have to step up its pace of reforms, if it wants to reach its goal of provisionally closing accession negotiations by the end of 2028.
Convincing sceptical member states like Hungary that the EU can absorb this country of more than 40 million people will be the bigger challenge.
Latest
- The next stage of Europe’s climate transition hangs in the balance, with EU environment ministers meeting in Brussels today to hash out a deal on emissions cuts ahead of the COP30 climate talks.
- Poland plans to start building a national anti-drone
system within months, without waiting for the EU’s “drone wall” initiative, Deputy Defence Minister Cezary Tomczyk told in an interview.
- European carmakers are inching closer to a recovery next
year after a series of profit warnings in 2025, with cost cuts and turnaround plans prompting analysts to raise earnings estimates.
- China criticized the Dutch government for not taking enough steps to resolve a dispute over chipmaker Nexperia.
- In a speech in Sofia today, ECB President Christine Lagarde sought to allay concerns among Bulgarians that
adopting the euro from January 2026 will lead to prices rising more quickly.
- The party aiming to oust Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban at next year’s election plans to roll back lavish tax breaks for foreign companies as part of an economic overhaul.
Chart of the Day
Trump is putting military leaders in a no-win situation. “Is there any use of force that the President’s handpicked legal authorities would find unlawful?” – Said Frank Kendall, a former secretary of the Air Force.
Why the Trump tariffs case before the Supreme Court could be fun listening. “In an argument session on such weighty matters that is very likely to last two hours or more, where does the fun come in? If it comes, it will be from watching the conservative justices struggle to reconcile their deference to the president — abundantly apparent in recent months from their multiple unsigned and unexplained orders giving him nearly everything he wanted — with the method they embrace in other contexts for interpreting statutes.”
Power Blocs
China and Russia plan to gradually expand their mutual investments and deepen cooperation in areas such as energy, agriculture, and space. At a meeting with Russian Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin in Beijing, President Xi Jinping called for harnessing the potential of emerging industries like artificial intelligence, the digital economy, and green
development to create new engines of growth. Xi emphasized that strengthening bilateral relations is a strategic decision for both sides . Meanwhile, Beijing urged the US to avoid four sensitive issues in order to preserve the trade peace agreed upon by Xi and Donald Trump. China’s ambassador to the US, Xie Feng, named Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s political system, and the right to development as “red lines.” He cautioned that only mutual respect can ensure stability and warned that conflicts over technology or industry, for example, would “inevitably lead to a dead end.” China also criticized the Dutch government for not doing enough to resolve a dispute over the chip manufacturer Nexperia.
· ![]()
Arctic Front
Danish soldier Mads Hansen is stationed at the remote Mestersvig base on Greenland’s east coast – a location increasingly at the center of international security concerns . Faced with growing tensions in the Arctic, Denmark is significantly expanding its military presence there.
The government is investing in maritime patrol aircraft for surveillance and anti-submarine warfare, more Arctic-capable ships, and icebreakers to better secure Greenland and its strategically vital sea lanes.
The Danish military views Russia, not Trump’s takeover ambitions, as the true threat to Greenland. Moscow has significantly expanded its bases, weapons, and nuclear submarines in the Arctic. While NATO exercises in Greenland prepare for a potential escalation, the military buildup is eliciting mixed reactions: many Greenlanders fear restrictions on their autonomy, while others see it as a necessary safeguard.
New training programs are intended to involve more locals in the defence effort. Despite harsh conditions, Greenland, with its location between North America and Europe, remains a key area for Western security — and Denmark is increasingly turning its gaze eastward.
As if we needed any more reminders that any US-China trade truce is going to be fragile in this day and age. China called on the US
to avoid four sensitive issues so last week’s rapprochement between Presidents Donald Trump and Xi Jinping can hold, highlighting the broad array of disagreements that can still test ties.
Ambassador to the US Xie Feng named Taiwan, democracy and human rights, China’s political system, and development rights as Beijing’s four red lines, adding that “the most important thing is to respect each other’s core interests and major concerns.”
Xie made the remarks in a virtual speech to a US-China Business Council event, according to a statement from the Chinese embassy on Tuesday. He added that “the pressing priority is to follow up on the consensus reached between” Xi, Trump and their officials, “to reassure
both our countries and the world economy with concrete actions and
outcomes.”
On the other side, the Wall Street Journal reported that opposition from senior US officials convinced Trump to refrain from discussing next- generation artificial intelligence chips with Xi.
All of this offers a reminder of the many ways that the one-year truce reached on Thursday in South Korea can come undone. It also shows that while Taiwan’s status didn’t come up in talks between Xi and Trump, it’s still very important to Beijing.
· Star Bulk returns to China for newbuilding trio at Hengli
Resale deal foresees Petros Pappas-led bulker behemoth taking early delivery of the vessels
New York-listed shipping giant Star Bulk Carriers is said to be behind one of a string of newbuilding deals announced this week by China’s Hengli Shipbuilding.
The Petros Pappas-led owner has upped its kamsarmax orderbook with three firm vessels at the rapidly expanding yard, market sources tell TradeWinds.
· Hengli Shipyard stacks bulging orderbook with 10 kamsarmax bulk carriers
Newbuildings were ordered by three European companies Hengli now has 63 Kamsarmax bulk carriers on its orderbook. China’s Hengli Shipyard has signed Kamsarmax bulker newbuilding orders worth more than $350m. The fast-rising yard disclosed that it has concluded contracts for 10 vessels with three “well known” European shipowners. Shipbuilding players said a few companies are in discussions with Hengli for 82,000-dwt bulkers, including existing clients such as Greek shipowner George Procopiou’s Sea Traders and German shipowner Reederei H Vogemann.
· How Macquarie grew a $2bn shipping book from a single tanker deal
Shipping finance unit’s flexibility is a competitive advantage, Marc Hari
says
Macquarie’s ship finance loan book breached the $2bn mark this year, and the Australian Bank says it has the “appetite” and “momentum” to deploy further capital across vessel segments.
· Fujian Guohang drops two bulker orders at Jiangsu Haitong
Chinese bulker owner Fujian Guohang Ocean Shipping has scrapped plans to build two 73,800 dwt bulk carriers at Jiangsu Haitong Offshore Engineering Equipment, saying the ships no longer fit its strategic direction.
The Beijing Stock Exchange-listed company’s board approved the decision to terminate the construction contract, which was part of a four- plus-two series originally signed in January 2023.
The pair were optional vessels, with contracts formalised in January 2024 but never activated, as Guohang did not pay the first instalment.
Fujian Guohang said the ships were designed for domestic dry bulk operations, making them unsuitable for international routes. Adjusting the vessels for global trades would require a “comprehensive overhaul” of their hull structure, load capacity and seaworthiness standards, the company explained — a costly move that would leave the ships uncompetitive against export-focused designs.
The company said the decision reflects a strategic shift toward international trade routes and fleet expansion that bridges both domestic and overseas markets. “Continuing these domestic bulk carriers would not align with our long-term development goals or make efficient use of funds and resources,” Fujian Guohang said.
Fujian Guohang has been one of China’s most active private bulker players. It ordered four firm 73,800 dwt vessels at Jiangsu Haitong in a deal worth about $128m and has since moved on to larger,
greener projects — including a series of up to 10 methanol-ready Kamsarmaxes at Wuhu Shipyard, with deliveries starting in 2026.
According to VesselsValue, the company’s fleet currently includes 12 Owned bulkers, with two handysize units agreed for sale and as many as 16 newbuilds still in the pipeline.
· Diana Shipping nets $12.5m from fresh MOL and Bunge charters
Greek dry bulk owner Diana Shipping has sealed a fresh charter deal with MOL Ocean Bulk and extended another with Bunge, adding up to around $12.5m in gross revenue for the two vessels.
The New York-listed company said it fixed its 2012-built 206,104 dwt Newcastlemax Los Angeles to MOL at $24,000 per day, less 5% commission, for a period running from November 2025 to between September and November 2026. The vessel had previously been on charter to NYK, earning $28,700 per day since mid-2024.
Separately, Diana extended the employment of its 2016-built 60,309 dwt Ultramax DSI Aquarius with Bunge at $14,500 per day, also less 5% commission.
The new period will run from November 2025 to as late as December
2026, at an improved rate compared to the vessel’s previous fixture at
$13,300 per day. The company, which currently controls a fleet of 36 bulkers, said the two fixtures are expected to generate a combined
$12.55m in gross revenue over their minimum charter terms.
Most recently, Diana also locked in two of its vessels on fresh charter contracts, extending its coverage into 2027. The company secured a direct continuation for the 2007-built capesize Semirio with Solebay Shipping. The new deal will run from March 2026 at a daily rate of
$21,650, compared with the current rate of $16,650. In a separate deal, Diana fixed the 2013-built panamax Maera to Singapore-based CRC Shipping. The new charter, set to begin in November, is for a minimum of 13 months at $11,750 per day, up from its current $8,400 rate with China Resource Chartering.
· One in four maritime suppliers flagged for cyber risks
A growing number of maritime suppliers are being flagged for cyber vulnerabilities as shipowners tighten supply-chain due diligence and demand verified ESG and data-security credentials.
According to new findings from Achilles Network, more than 28% of maritime parts and service suppliers assessed over the past year were rated as having high or very-high cyber risk. The data stems from a 12- month review covering more than 1,000 global suppliers, examining environmental, social, governance and cyber performance.
The results coincide with the rollout of Achilles’ verified ESG and cyber indicators inside Procureship’s e-procurement platform, giving buyers third-party-verified supplier data during procurement.
According to Athens-based Procureship, the integration allows Shipowners and managers to identify supplier weaknesses earlier and benchmark ESG and compliance standards directly within their purchasing workflows.
“Understanding the ESG capabilities of suppliers across the maritime industry is crucial to safeguard the day-to-day operations of global shipowners and reinforce their own ESG strategies,” said Grigoris Lamprou, CEO and co-founder of Procureship.
The review also found that more than half of Suppliers assessed lack third-party-assured anti-bribery systems, public liability insurance, or information-security policies. About 25% do not yet measure their greenhouse gas emissions, while over half rely on uncertified carbon systems. Still, nearly half of those surveyed have implemented certified environmental management systems, and around 13% have decarbonisation plans in place.
Achilles CEO Craig Rodgerson said the findings highlight how shipowners are moving from reactive to predictive risk management. “Shipping companies are increasingly using data-driven insights to strengthen supplier relations and address environmental and cyber vulnerabilities”.
The findings underline how cyber and ESG due diligence are becoming central to shipowners’ procurement strategies, as regulatory pressure and digitalisation reshape the industry’s risk landscape.
· Global LNG trade flows teeter on knife’s edge ahead of EU’s
due diligence rules
Qatar will stop exporting LNG to Europe if CSDDD requirements are not eased.
Comments follow joint statement with the US two weeks ago on significant challenges that CSDDD poses to international LNG trade.
Europe will face stiff challenges with gas imports as LNG prices are set to rise with CSDDD, especially with sanctions on Russian gas.
More LNG could be diverted to Asia instead if Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive is adopted as exporters look to circumvent penalties associated with it.
- Selling a tanker into the shadow fleet? That could be on you, Gard warns
- Lack of knowledge might not get you off the hook for big penalties
- Wording of regulation unclear in some aspects
- Show your workings on due diligence
Rules could apply not just to next Owner but Owner after that.
- ONE further slashes profit forecast and warns market downturn may deepen
Singapore-based carrier has cut its full-year profit forecast to $310m, suggesting a loss-making second half
Next year’s market will largely hinge on the Red Sea situation and the trajectory of tariffs.
OCEAN Network Express has again downgraded its full-year profit guidance and cautioned that market conditions could deteriorate further.
In its interim results released Tuesday, the container line lowered its profit forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2026 to $310m, down from $700m projected on August 1 — itself already $400m below the baseline estimate published at the end of April.
The latest projection assumes that the wave of new ship deliveries weighing on the market will persist over the next four months, while Red Sea diversions, which have temporarily absorbed capacity, are also expected to continue.
According to Linerlytica, once rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope subsides, more than 130 vessels — nearly 6% of the world’s boxship fleet — could be released back into service, adding significant pressure on freight and charter markets.
· Are container rates rebounding or is SCFI ‘overoptimistic’?
The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index is showing a material rebound in transpacific spot rates. It may be incorporating gains that have yet to appear in other data sources, or it may be overshooting
ONE has posted $317m in profit over the first two quarters of the fiscal year, including $285m between July and September, when freight rates were boosted by tariff-driven frontloading. The guidance cut suggests that the line could post losses in the second half.
“The global environment remains subject to significant uncertainties,” ONE said. “The overall market environment may not prove as robust as initially projected.”
The carrier also cited potential impacts from tariff policies and the US Trade Representatives actions.
The comments came after Beijing and Washington agreed to a temporary trade deal, which includes halving fentanyl-related tariffs on Chinese products to 10% and suspending their reciprocal port fees for one year.
The first measure is seen as broadly supportive of container demand, while the latter could limit carriers’ pricing power as logistics disruptions ease.
Nevertheless, freight rate indices have rebounded sharply in recent weeks, though analysts warn their durability remains uncertain.
Fearnley Securities noted that the recent surge has been driven by short-term factors such as blank sailings, general rate increases, port congestion in Asia, and port fee disruptions.
“Hence we argue freight rates should continue to be under pressure going forwards and believe 2026 should offer a year with losses for the liners.”.
Port fee questions linger after shipping used as trade war ‘pawn’
- Fee pause is scheduled to begin on November 10, implying that affected ships could slow steam and delay arrivals to avert cost
- Retroactive refunds for fees paid from October 14 to November 10 are considered unlikely
- Key question is whether port fees for non-Chinese-built vehicle carriers will also be paused as part of the US-China trade détente
· The shipping industry breathed a sigh of relief when a pause in US and Chinese port fees was announced. But it hasn’t happened quite yet and the devil, as always, is the detail.
- Chinese yard prices stack up whatever happens to US port fees, argues Haynes Boone
- 4:1 cost differential leaves orders viable even after million-dollar levies factored in
- 90% of world trade doesn’t involve US at either end, William
Cecil points out
- Desire to ‘Make American Shipbuilding Great Again’ likely
to be thwarted
Thinking about ordering anywhere else? There isn’t anywhere else.
· Oil Prices Fall Towards $60 As Supply Fears Mount
Oil prices experienced a decline on Tuesday, driven by heightened concerns about oversupply in the market and the strengthening of the U.S. dollar.
OPEC+’s decision to pause its planned supply hikes for the first quarter of 2026, citing seasonal demand weakness, contributed to the bearish sentiment among speculators.
Despite some OPEC+ members publicly dismissing fears of a glut, the market interpreted the production pause as an acknowledgment of potential oversupply.
Oil prices fell on Tuesday morning as concerns about oversupply increased after OPEC’s decision to pause supply hikes and as a stronger U.S. dollar eased buying from holders of other currencies.
As of 8:44 a.m. ET on Tuesday, the U.S. benchmark price, WTI Crude, was flirting with the sub-$60 a barrel price it reached two weeks ago after the Trump Administration slapped sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil firms, Rosneft and Lukoil. The U.S. benchmark crude futures were trading down by 1.44% at $60.17.
The international benchmark, Brent Crude, slipped below $65 per barrel as it was down by 1.22% on the day at $64.10.
After weak trading on Monday during which traders sought to decipher what OPEC’s latest move means, speculators appeared to have decided by Tuesday that the pause in output hikes is bearish as OPEC+ is likely seeking to prevent a price collapse in case the glut fears materialize.
On Sunday, the eight OPEC+ producers who have been withholding supply to the market decided to pause their reversal of the production cuts in the first quarter of 2026, after a small increase in December.
Citing “seasonality” and historically weaker demand in the first quarter of any year, OPEC said it would halt the production increases in January, February, and March.
“(The) market may see this as the first sign of acknowledgement of potential oversupply situation from the OPEC+ front, who have so far remained very bullish on demand trends and ability of market to absorb the extra barrels.” Suvro Sarkar, energy sector team lead at DBS Bank, told Reuters on Tuesday.
OPEC+ continues to publicly project a bullish view of the market balances. One of the OPEC+ producers party to the deal to unwind the cuts, the UAE, on Monday dismissed fears of a glut, with its Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei saying “I’m not going to talk about an oversupply scenario. I can’t see that.”
A stronger U.S. dollar also added to the downward pressure on oil prices early on Tuesday.
· The Hydrogen Economy Is Here, But Challenges Remain
The hydrogen discourse has shifted from aspiration to action, with over 500 committed projects backed by approximately $110 billion in investment, indicating a move towards a tangible and investable sector.
Despite significant growth in committed projects and installed electrolyser capacity, the hydrogen sector faces challenges such as project cancellations, cost pressures, policy uncertainty, and the need for stronger demand-side policies.
The success of hydrogen as a backbone of low-carbon energy systems depends on decisive action from governments and industry, including clear demand mechanisms, coordinated infrastructure, and blended financing models to support early-stage projects.
Much of the hydrogen discourse over the past decade has been aspirational: visions of a clean hydrogen economy, deep decarbonization of industry and transport, and futuristic power systems
built around electrolysis. In many of earlier pieces on OilPrice, it was warned that hydrogen was entering a “reality phase” — where hype must give way to execution, economics, and scaling. Now we are beginning to see real projects crossing the threshold, and the balance is shifting. But the path forward is fragile: execution, policy alignment, and market demand must catch up—or momentum will stall.
From ambition to action
The Hydrogen Council’s Global Hydrogen Compass 2025 shows what this next phase looks like. There are now over 500 committed projects (i.e. at final investment decision, under construction, or already operating), backed by roughly $110 billion in investment. That’s up about
$35 billion in a year. That’s not just ambition, it’s capital moving.
Likewise, capacity commitments now exceed 6 million tonnes per year. That means for the first time, hydrogen is shifting from promise toward a tangible, investible sector.
The International Energy Agency’s Global Hydrogen Review reinforces this shift noting that while hydrogen demand in 2023 reached some 97 million tonnes globally, low-emissions hydrogen (green or blue) remains a sliver of the total. Yet, projects taking FID today could push low- emissions hydrogen output fivefold by 2030, from under 1 million tonnes to over 4 million tonnes. Installed electrolyser capacity among committed projects has already jumped past 20 GW, from just over 1 GW not long ago.
These numbers tell us what insiders already sense: the hydrogen field is entering a new stage. The first wave of cleaner projects is being built now; the question is whether this wave will break or crest.
Challenges and fault lines
But make no mistake, this phase is delicate. Many projects still exist only on paper; many more await regulatory and permitting approvals, grid connections, and commitment offtake agreements.
The IEA recently cut its 2030 outlook for low-emissions hydrogen by nearly 25 % due to project cancellations, cost pressures, and policy uncertainty.
That means even as capacity that’s already under construction or committed grows strongly, the broader ambition is threatened by attrition.
Costs remain a major barrier, especially for electrolysers and the variable nature of renewable electricity supply. Supply chain constraints, material costs, and workforce challenges have all bitten hard, and demand-side policy is still catching up, hydrogen is only rarely mandated or rewarded by regulation in many markets.
In short: scaling is underway, but it’s uneven and fragile. The phase of
“reality testing” has now fully arrived.
The strategic imperative for hydrogen
This is precisely why neither industry nor policymakers can afford to treat hydrogen as a side project. The coming years are decisive. If capital stalls, projects fail, or policies wobble, hydrogen may slip back into being the technology of distant dreams, not of near-term energy systems.
For those who follow: this is exactly the moment that was predicted when it was described that hydrogen was entering a “reality inflection”, where only seriousness, discipline, and coordination will prevent it from regressing to hype.
Consider the flip side: if hydrogen succeeds, it becomes a backbone of low-carbon energy systems, especially in heavy industry, long-distance transport, and storage that batteries cannot reach. The first movers gain not just returns but industrial leadership, intellectual property, and supply chain dominance.
What must be done
Governments must push beyond frameworks and rhetoric. They need to commit to clear demand mechanisms, mandated uptake, contracts for difference, quota’s, that give developers certainty. Policy instability is hydrogen’s mortal enemy right now.
At the same time, co-ordination is essential: grid planning, cross-border infrastructure, hydrogen transport and storage networks, and harmonized standards will unlock scale.
- The Black Sea grains and oilseeds market is currently characterized by high production but cautious demand, a shift
towards oilseeds over grains due to better margins for farmers, and ongoing geopolitical and logistical challenges in Ukraine. The outlook is for a structural shift to oilseeds, continued competitive offers from Russia, and volatile market conditions influenced by weather, government actions, and shipping issues, particularly affecting Ukraine.
Market updates
High output, cautious demand: Record harvests are expected for both grains and oilseeds, but global prices remain weak, leading to cautious demand.
Structural shift to oilseeds: Farmers are increasingly favoring oilseed crops over grains because of better profit margins, leading to an increased area planted with oilseeds.
Logistical and regulatory issues: Ukraine faces headwinds like export duties, paperwork delays, and higher freight costs, which continue to impact its role as a stable supplier.
Competitive Russian exports: Russia is a major, competitive supplier in the market, particularly in the wheat sector, despite challenges in the Black Sea region.
Market volatility: The market is highly sensitive to geopolitical events and government interventions, leading to significant volatility. Attacks on ports and infrastructure have become common, and the market has largely adjusted to this level of risk.
Outlook
Continued oilseed dominance: The structural shift towards oilseeds is expected to continue as long as margins remain favourable.
Growing oil production: Crushers are prioritizing oil production to meet domestic and export demand, even as constraints in raw material supply impact throughput.
Navigating geopolitical headwinds: The market will likely continue to be influenced by the ongoing conflict, with Ukraine’s export capacity remaining a key factor to monitor.
Impact of weather: Weather events will play a significant role in crop cycles and overall yields, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Competitive trade: Russia is expected to continue pressing with competitive export offers, maintaining its strong position in the global market.
Baltic News
Baltic Exchange Market Report 04 November 2025 Baltic Dry Index: 1958 (13)
Baltic Capesize Index: 2947 (59)
Baltic Panamax Index: 1788 (-13)
Baltic Supramax Index: 1311 (-9)
Baltic Handysize Index: 831 (-10) TIMECHARTER
‘Risoluto’ 2025 82718 dwt dely Ishinomaki 5/6 Nov trip via NoPac redel Singapore-Japan $19,250
‘Yasa Ruby’ 2023 82267 dwt dely Zhuhai 5 Nov trip via EC Australia redel China $20,000 – Oldendorff
‘Season Trader’ 2024 82232 dwt dely retro Krishnapatnam 27 Oct trip via EC South America redel SE Asia $17,750 option redel Singapore-Japan $18,250
‘Athens Trader’ 2011 79457 dwt dely Zhangzhou 4/6
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‘Karadeniz S’ 2012 57157 dwt dely Campha prompt trip via Vietnam redel Bangladesh intention clinker$17,500
‘ES Dignity’ 2023 42902 dwt dely Mumbai 2/4 Nov trip via Arabian Gulf to EC India intention urea $11,000 – Allianz
‘Seastar Vulcan’ 2015 39810 dwt dely Taipei prompt trip via Australia to WC India – Pakistan or AG redel passing Singapore intention grains $16,500 – Drydot
‘Carla C’ 2015 37489 dwt dely Houston prompt trip redel Veracruz intention scrap $21,000 – Centurion
‘Angel’ 2014 37227 dwt dely Santos prompt trip redel Morocco $17,500 – TMC
‘Coreship Ol’ 2012 31871 dwt dely Recalada prompt trip redel Fortaleza intention grains $18,250 – Clipper
VOYAGES ORE
‘RWE TBN’ 190000/10 Itaguai/Qingdao 1/3 Dec $23.45 fio 60000shinc/30000shinc – CSN
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COAL
‘TBN’ 75000/10 Gladstone/EC India 1/10 Dec $17.60 fio 35000shinc/35000shinc – Sail
‘TBN’ 70000/5 Puerto Bolivar/Safi 12/18 Nov $16.80 scale/45000shinc – Glencore
CAPESIZE
The market saw a broadly positive day, with the BCI 5TC gaining $489 to close at $24,444. In the Pacific, activity was robust as all three miners were active on C5, and brokers reported a notably tighter tonnage list at the start of the day. Reports suggested at least seven fixtures were concluded on C5, with rates ranging between $9.30 and $9.50, pushing the C5 index up by 0.365 to $9.485. The Atlantic was comparatively quieter, with C3 on index dates bid in the low to mid $22s against offers in the low to mid $23s, leading to a minor correction on the C3 index, which slipped by 0.023 to $22.991. Conditions in the North Atlantic were also subdued, though sentiment remained firm, with both C8 and C9 recording marginal gains by the close.
Atlantic
CSN fixed yesterday a RWE TBN for 190,000/10 Itaguai to Qingdao 1/3 December at $23.45.
Asia
Rio Tinto fixed 3xTBNs for 170,000/10 Dampier to Qingdao 19/21 November at $9.30, $9.40 and $9.50, Marmaras and Berge Bulk were linked. BHP fixed 2-3 TBNs for 160,000/10 Port Hedland to Qingdao 20/22 November at $9.40 and $9.45 levels. FMG fixed a TBN for 160,000/10 Port Hedland to Qingdao 17/19 November at $9.40, lacking further details.
PANAMAX
A mass of correction for the Panamax market, the BPI timecharter index duly adjusting negatively $117 to close at $16,090, with slightly weaker markets playing out in both basins. The Atlantic remained predominantly front haul centric with reasonable demand seen, whilst tonnage off the continent slowly began to build as a distinct lack of trans-Atlantic demand failed to materialise. The Asian basin weakened too as the tonnage/cargo balance began to turn, this despite some talk from sources of a better looking NoPac market but rates began to ease as weaker sentiment kicked in. Period news included rumours of the SSI Surprise (81,630 2013) Haldia 12/15 November was heard fixed to Bluepool for 1 year, but further details remained under wraps.
Atlantic
Mixed rumours of the Hong Yuan (76,574 2009), some heard fixed delivery aps EC South America 14 November for a trip redelivery Skaw-
Gibraltar at $26,000 with Louis Dreyfus, whilst other heard the deal had failed. Similarly, conflicting rates mentioned for the Maera (75,403 2013) Vishakhapatnam 3 November fixed by Mercuria for a trip via EC South America redelivery Singapore-Japan with rates of both $13,750 and
$14,000 muted.
Asia
From the north, the Risoluto (82,718 2025) Ishinomaki 5/6 November fixed for a NoPac round trip at $19,250, whilst updating from yesterday the Yasa Ruby (82,367 2023) Zhuhai 5 November fixed for a trip via EC Australia redelivery China at $20,000 with Messrs Oldendorff.
SUPRAMAX
A positional day for the sector, as the general mood in Asia remained poor with limited fresh enquiry and a good amount of prompt tonnage keeping downward pressure on the market. In the Atlantic it was apparent that the US Gulf had turned a corner brokers said. Certainly, for trans Atlantic runs brokers spoke of stronger numbers being discussed and owners were a little more optimistic. Elsewhere the chartering side was still in control with limited fresh enquiry and again downward pressure remaining in play. The 11TC average finished the day down $112 at $16,576.
Atlantic
The Rostrum (63,345 2021) open Santos was heard to have been placed on subjects basis delivery Recalada for a trip to Spain at $21,000 with Cefetra. Elsewhere, the Beatrice (55,700 2009) which sailed westbound ex Alexandria 30 October was also heard to have been placed on subjects basis delivery retro sailing for a trip via Jorf Lasfar to India via COGH at $17,000 with H.Glovis but some said it was at
$22,000 delivery passing Gibraltar.
Asia
It was reported that the Karadeniz S (57,157 2012) was fixed basis delivery Campha for a trip via Vietnam redelivery Bangladesh with clinker at $17,500, but no more details surfaced.
HANDYSIZE
Market sentiment remained soft across both the Atlantic and Pacific basins. BHSI closed the day at 831 while the 7TC average dropped by
$172, finishing the day at $14,959. In the Continent and Mediterranean,
rates showed minimal movement, with the market appearing balanced but marginally below previous levels. The South Atlantic and U.S. Gulf experienced a significant slowdown due to lack of demand, resulting in minimal activity. The Asian market mirrored this quiet tone, with little movement and overall sentiment remaining subdued.
Atlantic
The Cool Hero (34,481 2015) placed on subjects for a trip delivery Santos to redelivery Morocco at around $17,500 by LDC, though further details were not disclosed.
Pacific
The Ken Spirit (33,598 2011) open Seattle was fixed in the mid–high teens for a fronthaul grain run by Clipper, while the CS Satira (37,638 2013) open Quetzal reportedly failed at $14,000 for a trip via Peru to the Continent. Similarly, the Bright Star (36,476 2011) failed for delivery Guayaquil for a trip via WC South America to the Continent at $14,500, with no further details confirmed.
Baltic Exchange Index – 04 NOVEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
| Route Description Value Change ===== ========================================== | === |
| C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV 27,363 + | 363 |
| C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan 50,056 + | 312 |
| C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 26,886 + | 1154 |
| 314_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage 27,208 – | 6 |
| C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 10,028 + | 56 |
======================================================
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 27,827 + 503
Baltic Exchange Index – 04 NOVEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 2947 (+ 59)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== ======
| C2 | 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam | 11.331 + 0.006 |
| C3 | 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao | 22.991 – 0.023 |
| C5 | 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao | 9.485 + 0.365 |
| C7 | 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam | 13.163 + 0.132 | |
| C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV | 23,813 + | 375 | |
| C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan | 46,183 + | 266 | |
| C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV | 23,877 + | 1363 | |
| C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV | 23,784 + | 37 | |
| C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero | 6,419 + | 97 | |
| C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao | 17.648 + | 0.042 | |
========================================== ========
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 24,444 + 489
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 04 NOVEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,788 (- 13)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ========
| P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV | 16,409 | – | 300 |
| P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan | 23,518 | – | 256 |
| P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV | 16,187 | – | 76 |
| P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib | 9,913 | – | 15 |
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 15,327 + 15
====== ================================= ======= =====
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 16,090 – 117
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ======== P5_82 S. China Indo RV 16,850 – 39
| P7 | 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao | 54.114 – 0.278 |
| P8 | 66000mt Santos to Qingdao | 38.264 + 0.039 |
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 04 November 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ======== ======
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 16,850 – 39
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 04 NOVEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1311 (- 9)
| Route Description Value ($) Change ====== ========================================= | ==== |
| S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 21,808 | – 434 |
| S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 26,504 | – 42 |
| BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 15,229 | – 163 |
| BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 13,040 | – 210 |
| S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 26,086 | + 450 |
| S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 13,246 | – 325 |
| BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 20,836 | – 114 |
| BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 16,475 | – 158 |
| BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 16,643 | – 93 |
| S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 12,207 | – 156 |
| S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 14,808 | + 104 |
====== ========================================= ====
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 16,576 – 112 S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 14,542 – 112
Baltic Exchange Index – 04 NOVEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 831 (- 10)
Route Description Value ($) Change
| ====== | ======================================== ====== | |||
| HS1_38 | Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro | 11,629 | – | 85 |
| HS2_38 | Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston | 14,271 | – | 86 |
| HS3_38 | Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero | 19,889 | – | 550 |
| HS4_38 | USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero | 20,443 | – 528 | |
| HS5_38 | SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan | 14,207 | – 43 | |
| HS6_38 | N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn | 12,875 | – 18 | |
| HS7_38 | N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia | 12,631 | – 40 | |
| ====== | ======================================== ===== | |||
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 14,959 – 172
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2025
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