Russian oil flows to India are set to collapse to near zero after new US sanctions hit energy majors Rosneft and Lukoil, cutting off the key trade lifeline that’s fuelled both economies for three years, senior Indian refinery executives told Bloomberg. It’s a sharp reversal for the world’s top buyer of Russian crude, as executives say the blacklisting would make it all but impossible for flows to continue.
Russia supplied about 36% of India’s crude this year, but that share is now expected to evaporate, deepening tensions with Washington after President Donald Trump’s August tariffs and his push for New Delhi to curb Russian oil purchases.
India stares at $2.7 bn hit as US sanctions Russian Oil Companies. The sanction is against Roseneft as Lukoil is a private company. Lukoil are likely to force Indian refiners to buy oil from other sources.
The sanctions effectively end a lucrative arrangement born out of the Ukraine war, when India turned to cheap Russian barrels after G7 nations imposed a $60-per-barrel price cap. Now, Indian refiners are expected to move quickly to secure alternate supplies — a move that could squeeze margins and raise import costs
The US move is also rippling through China’s oil sector, threatening as much as 20% of its crude imports and putting both state and private refiners under pressure to balance supply security with compliance risks. Under the curbs, companies must unwind dealings with the blacklisted producers by Nov. 21, raising the stakes for Beijing as it weighs access to cheap Russian barrels against the threat of secondary sanctions that could cut firms off from Western banking, shipping and insurance networks.
Donald Trump’s administration has stepped up its attempts to force Moscow to agree to a ceasefire with Ukraine, with the US Treasury imposing sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil companies.
The news broke late on Wednesday afternoon, when the Treasury department said that its Office of Foreign Assets Control would block all transactions related to US property of Lukoil and Rosneft.
The Treasury said the measures were made on the back of what it described as “Russia’s lack of serious commitment to a peace process to end the war in Ukraine”.
The US sanctions announcement came on the day Russia launched a massive missile and drone attack on Kyiv and other cities across Ukraine and a day after Trump cancelled a planned summit with Vladimir Putin.
In imposing sanctions, the Treasury said it wanted to “degrade” Putin’s war chest and support Trump’s effort to end the war.
“Now is the time to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” said Treasury secretary Scott Bessent. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine.”
He said the US was prepared to take further action to end the war in Ukraine. “We encourage our allies to join us . . . and adhere to these sanctions.”
Oil markets surged higher on the news, with the price of a barrel of Brent crude, the global benchmark, increasing more than 7 per cent since the announcement to $65 a barrel, will this rise to $70/bbl after the
The Treasury was joined by the EU, which unveiled fresh measures against Russia on Thursday.
The EU announced a ban on Russian imports of liquefied natural gas from 2027 and will add another 117 vessels from Russia’s “shadow fleet” of oil tankers, which have circumvented earlier controls, to a sanctions list.
Russia’s economy is heavily reliant on oil and gas for its wealth.
Trump himself has grown increasingly frustrated at Putin’s reluctance to end the conflict, which started when Moscow invaded Ukrainian territory in February 2022.
The price of oil jumped after the US announced sanctions on Russia’s biggest oil producers, as Donald Trump intensifies pressure on Vladimir Putin to end the war in Ukraine. He’s also seeking to squeeze Russia’s key crude buyers—India and China. Flows of Russian oil to major Indian refiners are expected to fall to near zero, executives said.
Two thirds of world Oil is based on Brent Crude Prices.
Oil prices surged 6% on Thursday after President Trump imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, marking the first serious Ukraine-related sanctions of his second term — and a major shift from his earlier reluctance to target Moscow’s energy industry.
The move sent shockwaves through global markets as traders scrambled to assess how much Russian crude could be disrupted — and how the Kremlin might retaliate.
At the same time, tensions are rising in Latin America. Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro claimed his military has deployed 5,000 Russian- made anti-aircraft missiles amid growing U.S. military activity in the Caribbean.
Behind the scenes, intelligence officials are reportedly concerned that Trump’s focus on confronting Venezuela and targeting drug cartels could distract from Russia’s broader military ambitions in Ukraine and its ongoing campaign to undermine NATO unity.
For energy investors, this is not just geopolitics — it’s market risk.
Canada has its own plans to counter US tariffs. In a rare prime-time televised speech, Prime Minister Mark Carney laid out a strategy to double the country’s exports to markets outside the US within a decade, making it less reliant on its neighbour. He’s also hoping a new immigration plan
will lure some of the talent that may previously have headed to the US.
Soybean Processors Association (SOPA) on Thursday urged the commerce Ministry to reject any proposal to allow imports of Genetically modified soybean meal from the US, saying India has sufficient domestic supplies and such a move would hurt farmers. In a letter, the industry body said India currently holds more than adequate stocks of soybean meal to meet entire domestic demand for the marketing year 2025-26.
The Biggest Threat to the Gaza Deal
Only UN Infrastructure—and American Leverage—Can Prevent a Humanitarian Collapse
Among the many aims of the October 8 cease-fire deal between Israel and Hamas, flooding Gaza with humanitarian assistance ought to be one of the most achievable. According to U.S. President Donald Trump’s 20-point plan, “full aid” would be “immediately sent into the Gaza Strip” through neutral international institutions “without interference from the two parties.” The very first phase of the agreement called for 600 aid trucks per day to enter the territory unimpeded; in contrast to disarming Hamas or determining Gaza’s long-term security and governance arrangements, implementing such a measure is theoretically straightforward. On paper, after two years of horrific deprivation, serial displacement, and growing famine, it would finally allow the people of Gaza to begin receiving adequate supplies of food, medicine, and other vital necessities.
Already in its first two weeks, however, the deal has fallen well short of these goals. Just days after the agreement had been reached, Israel announced that it was delaying the reopening of the crucial Rafah crossing—a primary conduit of aid from Egypt—and cutting in half the number of aid trucks it was supposed to allow in, on the grounds that Hamas had been too slow in returning the bodies of deceased hostages. (The International Committee of the Red Cross has said that returning the deceased hostages is a “massive challenge” that requires special equipment and could take weeks.) A few days later, the Israeli government threatened a full shutdown of aid flows in response to what it described as a Hamas “attack” on an Israel Defence Forces bulldozer in Rafah; it backed down under U.S. pressure once it became public that the IDF bulldozer had likely hit unexploded ordinance. Many of the largest nongovernmental organizations (NGO’s) are frozen due to new Israeli registration demands. And because of the continued closure of crossings in the north, much of
northern Gaza remains effectively out of reach of aid deliveries, despite cleared roads to those crossings. The result of these actions is that most aid remains blocked, despite the terms of the deal. After an initial surge when the cease-fire was signed, aid flows remain far short of the minimum needed to halt the famine; as of October 21, the World Food Program reports that it has been able to bring in less than half the required volume of food aid.
This points to a problem that has been present throughout the war and even long before. Although international law requires humanitarian access to civilians regardless of the state of conflict between the warring parties, aid to Gaza has continually been used as a bargaining chip between Israel and Hamas or restricted or blocked by Israel for capricious reasons.
Moreover, by basing cease-fire deals on an aid-for-hostages framework, negotiators have implicitly given validation to Israel’s strategy of using the collective punishment of civilians in Gaza as a way to gain leverage or impose pressure on Hamas. The pattern of obstruction extends to the control and oversight of aid delivery itself. Since the early months of the war, Israel has refused to work with UNWRA, the UN agency for Palestinian refugees, which remains the largest and most capable relief actor in Gaza and a critical support to both Palestinian and international aid groups. And since the deal, Israel has refused to reengage with the agency, hampering large-scale relief efforts.
Despite these daunting challenges, the humanitarian crisis in Gaza can still be reversed. The United States has deployed a new Pentagon-led civil- military coordination center, the CMCC, which has oversight over the aid scale-up. If this entity takes strong leadership and acts as a bulwark against Israeli aid obstruction, it could prove instrumental. But to be effective on the ground, the coordination center must support rather than seek to supplant the UN-led aid coordination system. And the guarantors of the deal—including regional powers and European countries alongside the United States—will need to work closely to support the UN aid infrastructure, ensure that the deal’s humanitarian elements are upheld, and be ready to rapidly apply U.S. and international pressure in the face of any backsliding or interference. Given the many lives at stake if humanitarian aid falters, getting this right must be as much of a priority for the deal’s guarantors as the security elements of the agreement. As famine continues and winter approaches, every delay will take a toll.
- Trump says He’s cutting Off Trade negotiations with Canada. The President said his move, which again throws relations with one of the United States closest trading partners into turmoil, was motivated by an advertisement he deemed fraudulent.
- The Cracks in Russia’s War Economy
To sustain its war against Ukraine, Russia militarized its economy. Although—contrary to popular belief abroad—the Russian economy is not on a full wartime footing, the Kremlin has both splurged on weapons factories and begun trading more with China to evade Western sanctions. Over the past three years, the Russian economy has outperformed most forecasts thanks to extravagant government spending, high prices for commodities that Russia exports, and skilled economic management.
There are now two views of Russia’s economy. One, touted by Russian President Vladimir Putin, is that the Russian economy has proved surprisingly resilient and is strong
· Flag-hopping hits extreme levels
Latest analysis from Windward, a maritime analytics company, shows flag-hopping is at record levels, and that there are 12 fraudulent registries in operation, with over half of sanctioned tonnage flying under false flags. Windward data also shows that 57% of sanctioned tankers are falsely flagged or completely unknown in International Maritime Organization databases.
Standing out this month, with the figures released yesterday through to October 1, is Benin, whose ship registry has grown by nearly 50,000% this year (see chart below). Iran has flagged VLCCs there, while French authorities last month detained the Boracay, a Benin- flagged Aframax, linked to a drone invasion at Copenhagen airport. Gambia also stands out in the latest Clarksons rankings, growing by 574% so far this year.
The Comoros Islands, which came from nowhere this year to enter the top 30 flag states by gross tonnage, overhauling the likes of the
UK, has slid back over the past month from 9.9m gt in September to
7.8m gt after the government began a clean-out of its international registry.
In July, the European Union and the United Kingdom sanctioned Intershipping Services, a UAE-based company that operates the flag registries of Comoros and Gabon, another African flag strongly associated with the movement of Russian crude. Gabon has since seen its fleet size decline a great deal, as has Guinea-Bissau, another flag that took on much dark tonnage previously.
The see-sawing of flag tonnage numbers these days reflects the whack-a-mole realities authorities in the West have in trying to crack down on the dark fleet.
Other notable changes in the flag rankings are at the top of the league where Liberia now has built a more than 50m gt commanding lead over second placed Panama, and, come the next publication of World Fleet Monitor, Singapore will have leapt passed Hong Kong into fourth spot following Pacific Basin and Seaspan’s move from the Chinese city to evade the port fees being levied by the Trump administration in the US, another flag data change brought about by geopolitics.
The “weaponisation” of trade signals that shipping has moved from being a “neutral conduit of global commerce to a direct instrument of statecraft,” commented Greek Shipbrokers in a recent weekly report, adding: For owners and charterers alike, navigating this new regulatory battlefield may soon prove as complex—and as costly—as crossing any ocean.”
· Trump’s Russian oil sanctions set to redraw global tanker trading map
US president Donald Trump has imposed sweeping new sanctions on Russia’s two biggest oil producers, Rosneft and Lukoil, in what he described as “tremendous sanctions” aimed at forcing Moscow to the negotiating table over its war in Ukraine. The sanctions have the
potential to redraw the global tanker trading map,
with Bloomberg reporting Russian crude oil supplies to India are expected to dry up completely after the sanctions and fall to near zero within a short time.
Speaking in the Oval Office on Wednesday alongside NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte, Trump said the measures were necessary because President Vladimir Putin had shown “a lack of serious commitment to a peace process”.
“These are tremendous sanctions,” Trump said. “Those are against their two big oil companies, and we hope they won’t be on for long. We hope the war will be settled.” The new sanctions — the most extensive energy penalties imposed since Trump returned to the White House — block the firms and dozens of subsidiaries from access to US banks and dollar transactions. “The time has come to stop the killing and for an immediate ceasefire,” said US treasury secretary Scott Bessent. “Given President Putin’s refusal to end this senseless war, Treasury is sanctioning Russia’s two largest oil companies that fund the Kremlin’s war machine. Treasury is prepared to take further action if necessary.” Trump has cancelled a planned meeting with Putin in Budapest, citing frustration over stalled talks.
From a shipping perspective, the Trump sanctions and India’s reported phasing out of Russian oil imports are viewed as a net positive for tankers by SEB, a Swedish bank.
“India shifting oil purchase sourcing to alternative global markets (primarily the Atlantic Basin or MEG) should see incremental demand for compliant tonnage on long-haul voyages, substituting for voyages currently handled by a mix of compliant and non-compliant tankers exporting Russian crude,” SEB suggested in a note to clients today, adding: “Increased demand for non-Russian barrels will likely support the west-east price arbitrage, making Atlantic barrels more attractive to India and other Asian regions, opening up for more long-haul trades.”
· ‘Tariffs and politics outweigh economics’ in soyabean skirmish
China dominates demand but appears to hold most of the cards after ‘aggressively’ diversifying import base since first Trump presidency Lost tonne-miles shows vulnerability of dry bulk market to policy shocks, according to Allied QuantumSea. Signal Ocean confirms September was first month of zero US soyabean arrivals at Chinese ports since 2018. US soyabean exports to China have cratered as the two governments renew trade wars.
· China maintains its grip on boxship construction as orderbook share nears 75%
China has solidified its dominance of global containership construction having won the majority of new orders in 2025 According to Alphaliner, China now holds almost three quarters of the boxship orderbook in fleet capacity terms. Outside Asia only a handful of orders are currently in hand.
Competitive pricing, on time delivery and government backing means Asia’s shipyards are expected to maintain their leading position in containership construction.
· Tanker stocks soar with oil price after Trump sanctions Russian oil majors
Sector that has been shipping’s best share performer on the year sees
further gains in one big day.
Shares of US-listed tanker companies that already have been gaining traction got a turbo boost on Thursday from US President Donald Trump’s “get tough” measures on Russian oil companies.
Oil price futures spiked about 6% on Trump’s sanctions against giant Russian producers Rosneft and Lukoil, with tanker shares following closely behind.
Major product tanker owner Hafnia did even better, soaring 6.3% to lead the tanker group on the day.
· Who really owns US shipping stocks? Even the companies aren’t sure
US-listed shipowners face shareholder uncertainty in the wake of Chinese port fees. When China imposed its own port-fee regulations in reaction to US measures, many shipowners complained about the initial opacity of the rollout as they struggled to gain clarity on details.
· MSIG specialty marine CEO Tom Oostra on growth, risk, and the future of shipping
Discussing the shipping industry from an marine insurance perspective, CEO Tom Oostra shares his insights.
The global marine and energy insurance market, worth an estimated USD 39 billion, enters 2026 facing both opportunities and profound challenges. Europe continues to dominate, accounting for almost half the market, with the UK representing a significant portion, while Asia holds a 26 per cent share. Growth, once buoyant at 7 per cent annually between 2019 and 2023, is now slowing to just 3 per cent per year.
Against this shifting backdrop, Tom Oostra, Chief Executive of MSIG Specialty Marine, is steering one of the world’s leading specialist insurers through turbulence and transformation. The company, which traces its roots back more than 130 years, manages a USD 450 million portfolio across 225 marine experts. With deep specialisation in hull, cargo, and marine liabilities, alongside niche expertise in protection & indemnity, superyachts, dredging, offshore wind and political violence cover, Oostra sees complexity not as a threat but as the defining arena for leadership.
Baltic News 23rd October, 2025
BALTIC INDICES 23/10/2025
DRY INDEX: 2057 (-35)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 3059 (-100)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1924 (+20)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 1378 (-19)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 880 (-4)
BCI TC AVG $/DAY 25367 (-832)
BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 17319 (+181)
BSI TC AVG $/DAY 17423 (-230)
BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 15847 (-65)
TIMECHARTER
‘Contsantinos G.O.’ 2011 87447 dwt dely Gangavaram 28/29 Oct trip via South Africa redel India with coal $16,250 – Oldendorff
‘Iole R’ 2008 83684 dwt dely EC South America 18/20 Oct trip redel China
$16,350 plus $635,000 bb – Refined Success
‘Grampus Charm’ 2013 82937 dwt dely Mizushima 25 Oct trip via NoPac redel SE Asia $17,250 – Dreyfus
‘Skiathos’ 2023 82219 dwt dely Taichung 30 Oct/4 Nov trip via E Australia redel Singapore – Japan $19,200
‘Medusa’ 2010 82194 dwt dely Huanghua 23 Oct trip via Australia redel India $17,000 – LSS
‘Sea Venus’ 2013 82039 dwt dely Hong Kong 28/30 Oct trip via Indonesia redel S China $17,500
‘CCS Orchid’ 2017 81966 dwt dely Machong 29/30 Oct trip via Indonesia redel S China intention coal $19,000
‘Guo Hai Lian 805’ 2014 81728 dwt dely Toledo 28 Oct trip via Indonesia redel S China $22,000
‘Mia LR’ 2019 81678 dwt dely Gibraltar 28/30 Oct trip via Colombia to Plomin redel Skaw – Gibraltar range intention grains $20,000 option coal
$20,500 Scrubber to Owners – Cargill
‘Queen Sarah’ 2023 81221 dwt dely Nagoya 27 Oct trip via E Australia redel Singapore-Japan $18,500
‘Safesea Sindoor’ 2010 80717 dwt dely Vizag 23/24 Oct trip via Indonesia redel India $12,500 – Seapol
‘Jing Lu Hai’ 2015 77872 dwt dely Guangzhou 27 Oct
trip via W Australia redel Bahodopi $16,000 – Zhejiang Shipping
‘Super Nova’ 2010 77833 dwt dely EC South America 10/11 Nov trip redel Durban $29,000 – Norden
‘Gloria Confidence’ 2019 63102 dwt dely Sendai 25 Oct trip via NoPac redel Bangladesh $17,500
‘Kassiopi. GR’ 2019 60379 dwt dely Richards Bay prompt trip redel Pakistan $21,000 + $210,000 bb – Oldendorff
‘Kouros Diamond’ 2012 56092 dwt dely Karachi prompt trip via Arabian Gulf redel Bangladesh $12,000 – Polstar
‘Cyta’ 2024 40442 dwt dely wwr Upriver prompt trip redel Salvador – Fortaleza range $23,750 – Norden
‘Stellar Rioni’ 2017 38230 dwt dely Misurata prompt trip redel West Africa $18,000
VOYAGES
‘Cape Satsuki’ 2023 180000/10 Tubarao option West Africa/Qingdao 13/20 Nov $23.50 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – Oldendorff
‘TBN’ 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 7/9 Nov
$10.70 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – Cargill
‘TBN’ 75000/10 APCT-HPCT-DBCT/EC India 19/28 Nov $18.40 fio 40,000 SHINC BENDS – SAIL
Baltic Exchange Index – 23 October 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 3059 (- 100)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== =======
C2 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 11.313 + 0.007
C3 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 23.659 – 0.650
C5 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 10.405 – 0.345
C7 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 12.638 – 0.100
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 22,419 -412
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 43,833 -378
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 28,759 -1477
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 25,286 -1269
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 6,171 +38
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 17.889 – 0.391
========================================== ===
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 25,367 -832
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 23 OCTOBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,924 (+ 20)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ========
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 18,777 +282
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 24,807 +285 P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 17,505 +164 P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 10,231 +231 P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 15,815 +60
====== ================================= =======
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 17,319 +181
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ======
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 17,938 +213
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 55.471 + 0.128 P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 38.871 + 0.028
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 23 October 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 17,938 +213
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 23 October 2025 Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1378 (- 19)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================= ====
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 22,850 -46 S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 27,400 -839 BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 15,686 +7 BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 14,230 -120 S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 26,579 -875 S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 14,550 -289 BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 21,793 – 325 BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 17,558 – 13 BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 18,150 – 500 S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 13,007 – 93 S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 14,671 – 96
====== ========================================= ===
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 17,423 -230
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 15,342 -230
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 32 October 2025
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 15,686 + 7 S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 17,558 – 13 S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 13,007 – 93
====== =============================== =======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 15,452 – 28
Baltic Exchange Index – 22 OCTOBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 880 (- 4)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== ======
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 11,964 + 7 HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 15,936 -71 HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 22,663 -198 HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 23,107 -429 HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 14,371 +35
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jpn 13,044 +38 HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 12,800 +69
====== ======================================== ======
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 15,847 – 65
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd 2025 Marex Media