External Debt – Selected Countries 2025 those in excess of $100 Billion

POINTS OF VIEW WEEKLY

HSBC’s Global Economics has just released a 119-page report entitled: “A fog in the future” in which it asks the question, amid concerns about future US tariffs, Fed independence and government debt dynamics, financial markets remain buoyant, but for how long can the global economy continue to muddle through?

The executive summary alludes to 2025 witnessing ongoing conflicts and geopolitical tensions, unpredictable US trade policies, increasingly precarious fiscal dynamics and growing distrust in US institutions, yet the global economy has so far managed to soldier on and US profits are holding up. And that has been enough for risk assets to continue to rally, unperturbed by the queue of cases against US administration policies at the Supreme Court or the scattergun of a ‘dot plot’ from the Federal

Reserve’s FOMC members showing everything from a rate rise to another 125bps of rate cuts before the end of 2025.

Even though it is not certain that the fog will clear, global markets have seemingly stopped trying to anticipate what outcomes could be on the other side. That does not mean markets will not be vulnerable if decisions are taken that result in a renewed rise in inflation expectations.

Global GDP growth across regions was a bit better than had been expected in the first half of this year with exports stronger despite demand being somewhat weaker. Uncertainty and lingering inflation concerns, mainly in the West, curtailed spending and raised savings rates. But, in many parts of the world, particularly in emerging economies, big falls in inflation boosted real incomes and allowed larger rate cuts. It has been far from uniform, with global consumer behaviour being heavily influenced by inflation expectations and by borrowing and debt-servicing costs.

Global import demand is going through an unpredictable phase after US front-loading earlier this year, and by higher tariffs announced in August – of 50% on India and Brazil – that will slow exports to the US. Non-US trade corridors could stay resilient although, as HSBC points out, some part of the acceleration in intra-Asian trade may represent China-US transhipment rather than a big increase in regional trade flows.

Higher tariffs on pharmaceuticals and microchips, and the removal of exemptions, are expected over the coming months even as new US trade deals are struck around the world.

There is still a chance in November that the Supreme Court will concur with the lower courts in declaring IEEPA tariffs unlawful which will lead to a partial reprieve across the tariff space. Shipping is in a somewhat similar place to global markets: a good one. But, as with financial markets, there is little point in trying to rationalise what is going on.

Conventional analysis of supply and demand factors is frustrated by the distortions of a variety of macro trade and geopolitical issues.

The macro is in control now, although it could all change in a hurry.

Talk of super cycles may be careless and might only tempt fate, but we have strong earnings in most shipping sectors, with a knock-on effect on values and prices.

Today’s Baltic Sale & Purchase Assessments are up in every category except for the 10-year-old Ultramax.

Doomsday predictions of earlier this year have given way to bumper rates and a feeling that shipping is resilient in the face of threats.

The ClarkSea Index, an across-the-board measure of shipping earnings, is at its highest level since end 2022. Average containership earnings are just shy of $46,500 daily, their best in three years, and hardly what anyone expected.

The Baltic Capesize Index stands at a healthy $33,547 daily today.

China, which buys 75% of global seaborne iron ore, continues with steady iron ore imports. It shipped in 105.2mt in August, the third straight month above 100mt, with Kpler forecasting a September import figure of 112.2mt. This is despite weaker steel output over the first eight months of 2025 of 671.8mt, down 2.8% on the Jan-Aug period last year. Iron ore imports should rise over the balance of this year as there is 328mt steel output headroom if China is to hit its annual target of 1bt that has prevailed over the past five years.

China has the storage to take advantage of lower oil prices while OPEC is obliging by adding barrels to an oversupplied market, seeking to reclaim lost market share.

Trade wars are imperfect.

Goods flows will take the path of least resistance, searching out tariff- free or low tariff entry to countries that support free trade while bypassing those that do not.

It is no coincidence that the lengthy sales tables have coincided with a firm charter market.

The volume of sales makes it challenging to comment on each one, in turn, however it is clear that increased earnings in both basins are giving buyers optimism moving forward. The recent rise in rates could receive some further momentum in Q4.

The good news continues with the actions of the Argentine government on Monday, announcing the temporary suspension of export taxes on grains and bi-products, triggered a two-day binge on Argentinian agricultural products with the $7 billion cap reached by Wednesday. The taxes have now been re-applied however the volume of cargo that now needs to be shipped in the coming weeks should provide support to earnings, particularly out of ECSA.

The rise in earnings has seen some buyers targeting tonnage which has been overlooked recently, and not seen the same price rises.

Sales table includes seven non-eco Chinese handy sales. These ships often get overlooked however in a firming market like this there are clearly people who see value in the lower cost tonnage that can generate positive cash flow. A rising tide lifts all ships! With the market moving up, it was a surprise to see one Ultramax sell well below expectations.

Great Vista (61,072-dwt, 2021 DACKS) was sold via online auction for $27.8m. DACKS, a highly rated COSCO/Kawasaki JV, normally achieves prices closely aligned with pure Japanese tonnage, however in this instance she achieved well below than the pure Chinese Elizabeth M II (63,383-dwt, 2020 Nantong Xiangyu), which achieved $30.3m. Great Vista was sold with forward delivery in Q1 but even allowing for that the price is very soft. The sale was done via an online auction platform with only two bidders offering on the ship. Had she been sold in a more conventional manner we would have expected her to sell significantly higher.

Lastly, 2020 Bulkers have sold three modern Newcastlemaxes enbloc for a price of $209m with delivery in Q1 next year. This would put a per ship price at just below $70m, for 2×2019 built and 1×2020 built, this is not too far short of the mid/high-$70s that may be quoted as a newbuild replacement cost in China today. The premium to valuations has clearly proven to be an offer the Owners could not refuse. The buyer at the time of press has not been confirmed, with differing rumours of either a big Greek behind the purchase or a Middle Eastern state backed buyer.

Tanker Market Sale & Purchase

With healthy earnings and high replacement costs, whether it be newbuild or second-hand, it is a difficult decision for any owner thinking about selling a tanker in today’s market.

Despite this, there are transactions taking place with non-eco tonnage and the majority of this week’s sales are falling in line with last done.

Advantage Summer (156,527-dwt, 2010 Rongsheng) has been sold with docking freshly passed for a what is broadly a ‘last done’ price for $38m – Frontline sold their year younger sister which had docking due, namely Front Brage (156,557-dwt, 2011 Jiangsu Rongsheng), for the same price back in August.

A few Owners are continuing a clear out of their MR2 tonnage – Nave

Pulsar (50,922-dwt, 2007 STX) has been sold at a price of $14m, which is the same price that they achieved for sister ship Nave Equinox (50,922-dwt, 2007 STX) in August. Hafnia Taurus (49,999-dwt, 2011

GSI) has been sold to Indian buyers, Seven Islands for $18m.

The last sold from the same stable was a couple months back, when Hafnia Andromeda (49,999-dwt, 2011 GSI) was reported at $18.25m. The only sale this week that bucks the trend is Seaways Luzon (74,908-dwt, 2006 STX), which has gone for in excess of $11m with docking due. This is soft compared with the year older Palm (74,999-dwt, 2005 Hyundai) which was reported earlier this month, she had passed surveys and went for $12.75m.

Lead story

The Environmental Protection Agency has been a key target of the Trump administration’s efforts to reduce the size of the federal government. Layoffs, buyouts and other departures have been widespread at the agency charged with protecting the environment and preventing air and water pollution, which harms human health.

In the budget it has put forward for the next federal fiscal year, the administration has proposed reducing EPA staff by about 9%.

But the actual cuts are already far deeper and leave the EPA with the lowest number of staff in about half a century, according to environmental historians Elizabeth Blum and Chris Sellers. To arrive at their estimates, Blum, Sellers and several colleagues plumbed government databases and conducted in-depth interviews with current and former EPA personnel.

“A look at past efforts to cut EPA staff shows how rapidly those changes can affect Americans’ health and the environment,” they write.

· China banks on ‘super golden week’ to boost slowing consumption

Officials expect 2.36bn trips over eight-day break, backed by $46m in subsidies. China’s extended “super golden week” holidays will kick off Wednesday, with provincial economies hoping to attract hundreds of millions (does it sound like the US President’s language) of domestic tourists as they strive to reverse a slowdown in consumer spending.

Fertilisers:

India has concluded its renewable ammonia supply tender with state-owned Solar Energy Corporation of India (SECI), allocating all the planned 724,000 t/yr renewable ammonia to participating fertilizers companies.

India’s tender has garnered a lot attention from the clean ammonia industry globally, not least because the winning bids were largely priced far below market expectations, leaving some to question whether the price makes much sense for participants over the 10-year period.

Winning bids ranged across 50.00-64.74 rupees/kg ($568.07-739.98/t) on a delivered basis, and will remain fixed over the full 10-year period. Government subsidies from India’s new and renewable energy ministry (MNRE) have been promised for the first three years at a gradually declining rate, averaging at $80.90/t. The announced prices do not include the trading margin, which procurers will have to pay SECI, which is approximately Rs1.5/kg ($17/t). Goods and services tax (GST) is also not included, although the Indian government did announce plans to lower the GST rate to 5pc from 18pc on ammonia, effective from 22 September, in a bid to help reduce raw material costs for fertilizer producers.

DAP can be produced using ammonia, and either phosphoric acid or from phosphate rock.

Phosphate fertilizer producers using seaborne imports of fossil-fuel (grey) ammonia at average prices of close to $370/t cfr, as well as phosphoric acid at a current price of $1,258/t, are already making a loss of around $100/t DAP, even with the new GST rate. This is despite government subsidies from the department of fertilizers totalling Rs31,299 for the current kharif season.

PPL, CIL, IFFCO, and MCFL all produce DAP with phosphoric acid. For DAP producers using phosphate rock — which includes some of IFFCO and PPL’s production — current raw material prices give margins of around $20/t.

Producers using renewable ammonia purchased at the volume-weighted average $605/t under the tender extend losses by up to 52pc if using phosphoric acid, and push margins into negative territory if using phosphate rock (see table).

Phosphate producers, who are already haemorrhaging cash at current productions margins and have now agreed to renewable ammonia supply contracts above current market price levels, remain adamant the government will have to provide additional subsidies to cover any cost gap with traditional ammonia supply throughout the 10 year period.

Zero-sum game?

It is not only fertilizer producers procuring the renewable ammonia which are facing viability concerns. The location of some announced projects leaves questions over whether delivered prices will be achievable after factoring in transportation costs.

Project developer Acme secured six wins in the tender, or a total of 370,000 t/yr, to supply plants in Vishakhapatnam, Kandla, Paradip, Zuarinagar and Haldia. Five of these plants are located within 550km of one of Acme’s three planned projects. But Iffco’s fertilizer plant in Kandla is at least 1,600km away from Acme’s nearest announced project (see table).

Several other producers securing wins in the green tender have yet to break ground or secure financing on projects, with some admitting the timeline could be tight.

The agreed sale price will not be possible to achieve without additional government support according to one auction winner. Experts-forecasts the price for grey ammonia delivered to India could reach parity with the lowest renewable bid ($568/t) by 2035, and could breach the $700/t cfr mark by 2043.

At the moment, renewable producers are required under the tender rules to start deliveries within 36 months of signing the agreement, which means most deliveries will not start until 2029. This timeframe could potentially face delays as payment security mechanisms have yet to be established, meaning renewable and traditional markets could reach price parity at an earlier point in the 10-year timeframe.

If prices are to remain fixed across the 10-year period and grey ammonia delivered prices are to average at $568/t cfr between 2029- 2039, project developers could lose $270.5mn across the period on average against market prices, before even accounting for a potential low-carbon premium.

Future price increases for grey ammonia could negate the overall cost impact to fertilizer producers felt in the nascent years of the tender. But they will also lock in market-rate losses for renewable ammonia suppliers, on top of transport costs, which will already severely reduce netbacks on the awarded delivered prices. And both sides have expressed expectations for further government support, leaving some observers to question how realistic delivery of the supply contracts is for all parties involved.

Indian fertilizer importer RCF has issued a tender to buy 430t of water-soluble NOP. The tender closes on 22 September.

Delivery is required in stages over 15-90 days from the date a contract is signed.

NOP offers ranged $895-920/t cfr under fellow importer NFL’s tender that closed on 18 August for various water solubles, including NOP. Fob prices out of China have since softened slightly to $700-710/t fob in the latest assessment for fertilizer grade product, but reports of sales to India at much higher prices reflecting $790-800/t fob continue. NOP prices in India are heavily affected by freight costs from China.

· How to Build a Post-American Liberal Order

The World’s Democracies Must Work Together—and Constrain Washington

The United States used to be known as the “leader of the free world”—a mostly self-proclaimed but still widely resonant title that revealed how Americans viewed themselves and how allies judged their country. Although major democracies in Europe and East Asia at times chafed under U.S. dominance, they accepted Washington’s strategic supremacy. Starting in 1945, the United States’ allies adjusted to living in a U.S.-dominated world and believed that the country would protect them in the event of war.

Those days might be over.

· The world’s most innovative countries

China joins the top ten

THE GERMANS are an inventive bunch. They came up with the printing press, the car and the X-ray machine, not to mention MP3s and gummy bears. The country remains a big contributor to technological progress, filing more than 16,700 international patent applications in 2024. But, according to a new global ranking of 139 economies published by the World Intellectual Property Office (WIPO), Germany is no longer among the ten most innovative countries in the world. China has displaced it.

· Britain is slowly going bust

Even with a huge majority and plenty of time, Labour is drifting towards a fiscal crisis

AT HOME AND abroad, Britain’s economy is in the dog house. Inflation is sticky, debts and deficits are high, and productivity growth is low. Yields on long-term government debt are above those in any other big rich economy. Four in five Britons say the government is mismanaging the economy; Ray Dalio, a hedge-fund manager, says the country is in a “debt doom loop”. As we report, the infrastructure and housing projects that were supposed to be the engine of growth are turning out to be a sorry disappointment.

· A Green Ray of Hope in Uncertain Shipping Markets!

The sun may be setting on the shipping markets, but might we see a Green Ray of hope on the horizon – and if so, what fortunes could it bring?

The recently inaugurated US President Trump is already sending ripples across the shipping markets. Notably, his ambition to end the war between Russia and Ukraine has been very clear. I hope that most of us can agree that peace seems increasingly likely in 2025.

While one hopes that an end to the conflict will welcome a new era of peace, it will certainly trigger Russia’s demand for the lifting of sanctions restricting its export of oil and other commodities. This could lead to a major drop in tonne-miles for Russian crude and refined products, in turn delivering a significant blow to demand in the tanker market.

The dry bulk market is likely to be less affected, however, and could even benefit from the lifting of sanctions. Russia’s Black Sea ports, as well as its Baltic and Far East ports, could resume exports of their main commodities – grain, coal, fertilisers and steel – facilitated by the mainstream bulk carrier fleet.

This potential shift could also coincide with a normalisation of traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, provided peace in Furthermore, the recent introduction of import tariffs in the US threatens to ignite a tit-for-tat global trade war. How this will affect world trade will take time to measure, but it is clear that the consumer will be hit hardest. Much like the start of 2025, the remainder of the year is shaping up to be just as unpredictable – a landscape ripe for asset play. Older ship values will continue to weaken, and shipbuilding prices will stall. Shipyards will suffer from a slowdown in ordering, even as additional shipbuilding capacity comes on stream.

This potential shift could also coincide with a normalisation of traffic through the Red Sea and the Suez Canal, provided peace in the Middle East holds. Egypt, whose economy heavily relies on the income from the Suez Canal, is under significant strain. Stability is crucial to prevent public unrest and ensure the country’s economy can function normally. Certainly, world powers have a vested interest in maintaining its stability, as the most populated country in the Middle East and the second-most in Africa, with nearly 116 million people. As a US ally and a partner to Israel, there is likely to be a strong appetite from governments to resolve any tensions, even if peace in Gaza and Lebanon remains fragile.

Furthermore, the recent introduction of import tariffs in the US threatens to ignite a tit-for-tat global trade war. How this will affect world trade will take time to measure, but it is clear that the consumer will be hit hardest.

Much like the start of 2025, the remainder of the year is shaping up to be just as unpredictable – a landscape ripe for asset play. Older ship values will continue to weaken, and shipbuilding prices will stall. Shipyards will suffer from a slowdown in ordering, even as additional shipbuilding capacity comes on stream.

At the same time, 2025 could well mark a turning point – a transition from war, sanctions, and hostilities, notably in the Red Sea, towards peace and renewed trade. This would favour the mainstream tankers and bulkers as they take over the tonne-miles from a defunct shadow fleet headed for demolition. Peace should also drive the reconstruction of Gaza and Ukraine, fuelling demand for commodities and tonnage.

But beyond markets and trade, the most meaningful impact of peace would be the relief and healing it would bring to exhausted and suffering populations.

As the sun sets on the horizon and brings 2025 to a close, I sincerely hope a Green Ray will shine through out.

In Today’s Quest for Abundant Energy Sources, Interest in Wind Power Steadily Returns

A new map of India’s economic potential has been drawn. A recent, technology-driven recalculation has officially expanded the nation’s coastline by nearly 48% to 11,098.81 kilometers. This isn’t a territorial expansion; it’s a testament to the power of modern technology, like high-resolution satellite imagery, to more accurately measure our sovereign assets.

Current economic models and policy frameworks have yet to price in this revaluation. This creates a significant lag between the redefinition of our national assets and their reflection in strategic planning. This is the great, unpriced opportunity for founders and investors. The Blue Economy, which encompasses all ocean- based activities, already contributes a significant 4% to our GDP.

Yet, this contribution is achieved despite a sector, particularly fisheries and aquaculture, that operates on systems that are decades out of date. It’s a foundational inefficiency that creates a paradox: India is a global leader in aquaculture production, yet its domestic value chain is fragmented, opaque, and fraught with value destruction. This leaves the primary producers—over 28 million fishers and fish farmers—with a disproportionately small share of the final consumer price. The central challenge is not a lack of resources, but a failure of resource management.

The path forward lies in a paradigm shift: from a model of simple resource extraction to one of intelligent resource management, catalyzed by deep technologies. India loses an estimated ₹61,000 crores (approximately $7.3 billion) annually in the fisheries sector due to inefficiencies. This value destruction is driven by a broken cold chain and a multi-layered intermediary system that adds time and cost while diminishing quality. During peak seasons, post- harvest losses can be as high as 30% of the total catch.

The traditional value chain is not a streamlined conduit but a complex web of transactions with six to twelve layers of middlemen sitting between the producer and the final consumer. This creates a vicious cycle.

Vance says a shutdown is likely after Trump meets with Hill leaders. If the US government shuts down, essential services such as Social Security, air travel, and military operations will continue, although many workers will not receive pay. Programs like WIC face immediate funding risks, with national parks, Smitsonian Museums, and over 100,000 federal employees may face closures or furloughs.
As the US barrels toward a likely government shutdown at midnight on September 30 (local time), many Americans are left wondering what exactly will happen and how it might affect their daily lives. Numerous Federal programs, institutions and employees face significant disruptions.
President Trump’s 20 point Gaza peace plan, focussed on disarming Hamas and enabling a two-state solution, is receiving broad support from global leaders. The Palestinian Authority, Israel and key Arab and Western nations praised the proposal, while Palestinian Islamic Jihad rejected it, and Hamas is reviewing it “in good faith”.

Republican and Democratic leaders emerged from a high-stakes meeting at the White House today and traded blame for a government shutdown that could take place in a little more than 24 hours.

The meeting, hosted by President Donald Trump, produced no breakthrough to keep the government funded, with Vice President JD Vance predicting a shutdown will occur.

“I think we’re headed to a shutdown because the Democrats won’t do the right thing,” Vance, flanked by House Speaker Mike Johnson, R-La., and Senate Majority Leader John Thune, R-S.D., said after the meeting.

Funding is set to run out at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday unless Trump and leaders on Capitol Hill can reach an eleventh-hour agreement. Speaking separately to reporters, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries, D-N.Y., said Democrats would not back a funding bill that “continues to gut the health care of everyday Americans.”

What You Need to Know Today

Part of that uncertainty is America’s faltering labor market and rising unemployment. The “low-hire, low-fire” landscape is leaving millions on the outside looking in. And it’s not just recent college graduates who are struggling to find entry-level positions. Out-of-work mid-career employees are taking part-time jobs and hiring has stalled in industries from professional services to manufacturing.

More than a quarter of the jobless have been out of work more than a half-year—the highest share since the mid-2010s excluding the pandemic-era years. The significant drop in job creation was, among other things, worrisome enough to prompt Federal Reserve officials to cut interest rates in September.

· In a deal involving Trump’s son-in-law Jared

Kushner, Electronic Arts agreed to sell itself to Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund and a pair of private equity firms in a deal that values the company at about $55 billion, marking the largest leveraged buyout on record.

Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, along with Silver Lake Management and Kushner’s Affinity Partners, agreed to pay $210 per share in cash, a 25% premium to where EA traded before the talks leaked on Friday. JPMorgan is providing $20 billion of debt, the largest debt commitment for a buyout ever.

· For TikTok gift, Xi seeks Trump’s help in occupying Taiwan

In exchange for the gift of a TikTok deal, Xi appears to be seeking the most prized concession from Trump: outright opposition to Taiwan’s independence and help in occupying the self-ruled island. And there are signs that Trump may just serve a victory to the Chinese leader on a platter. Chinese President Xi Jinping is renewing a push for the US to change a decades-old phrase describing its stance on Taiwan independence, a concession that would be a major diplomatic win for Beijing. China has asked the Trump administration to officially declare that it “opposes” Taiwan independence

Starting in 2026, car manufacturers will need export licenses for EVs. The move is designed to restrict the export of low-quality products, prevent dumping and force companies to compete on technology rather than price.

The new rules underscore the intense scrutiny China’s car market is under as Beijing seeks to more closely manage what it calls the “healthy development” of the industry and curb “involution” across a raft of sectors.

The push to regulate exports extends Beijing’s control over more of the supply chain while also acknowledging the surge in overseas shipments that’s been a source of tensions with major trading partners.

· Myanmar regime increases troop presence near Chinese-run mines, locals say

Military under pressure to protect Beijing investments and revenue sources

· HMM buys bulker pair for $65m in diversification play

Market sources note CMB Tech exercised purchase option on Japanese charters before selling the ships

South Korean shipowner HMM has bought a pair of ultramax bulk carriers for $32.5m each, forking out a total of $65m, according to multiple broking sources.The 63,700-dwt CMB Van Dijck (built 2020) and the 63,600-dwt CMB Matsys (built 2021), had a market value of $31.98m and $33.71m respectively, according to maritime data provider VesselsValue’s estimates. The 2021 built CMB Matsys is one of the two Japanese built ultramax bulkers bought by HMM.

· Chinese dry-bulk rising star’s fleet soars with eighth bulker addition for 2025

Ultra Puma is the 24th bulker added to the Qingdao Alam International fleet since company was founded in 2023

Low profile Chinese bulker operator Qingdao Alam International Shipping has emerged as the buyer of a Japanese kamsarmax bulk carrier that was reported sold in July for $28m.

The vessel in question, the former Kasuga Shipping-owned, Ultrabulk- operated 81,900-dwt Ultra Puma (built 2016), arrived at the Canadian grain port of Prince Rupert in late September after completing its first voyage as Qingdao Alam’s Bei Chen Star.

· Seacon Shipping buys 40% stake in Chinese container firm’s leasing arm

Hong Kong-listed owner will pay $67.6m and also offer a shareholder guarantee of $40.4m. Seacon Shipping Group is going big into the container business through buying a stake in container manufacturer CIMC’s leasing subsidiary.

The Chinese product tanker and bulker owner will acquire a 40% stake in CIMC Xinde Leasing (Shenzhen) for CNY 481.91m ($67.6m) from Shenzhen Financial Leasing.

· Dutch general cargo ship on fire in the Gulf of Aden after Houthi attack

Injured crew being airlifted by helicopter to French warship after second attack in a week on the ship. Helicopters were airlifting crew from a burning Dutch general cargo ship in the Gulf of Aden on Monday after it was hit and badly damaged in a Houthi missile strike.

Two seafarers were injured in the attack on the 12,200-dwt Minervagracht (built 2011) — just six days after it was unsuccessfully targeted by the Yemen-based rebel group.

· VLCC market shifts towards charterers as owners look to Opec boost

Brokers and analysts tackle rumours of another production hike as heat comes out of freight market. Power in the VLCC spot market may be swinging back towards charterers as rates remain elevated.

But rumours of Opec+ pumping more oil are providing a potential bright spot for shipowners, analysts said.

· ‘Sweet spot’: New investors take a look at secondhand crude tankers as rates stay hot

Brokers say dirty tankers have now overtaken their clean cousins in catching the eye of buyers. New money is circling crude tanker sales candidates as spot rates surge, brokers believe.

Sales lists have been populated by plenty of bigger vessels in recent weeks.

· China prepares retaliation playbook ahead of US port fee deadline

China is taking pre-emptive action against the US’s plans to hike port fees for China-linked tonnage. Chinese Premier Li Qiang signed a State Council decree over the weekend which states that China will take necessary countermeasures against countries or regions that impose or support discriminatory bans, restrictions, or similar measures targeting Chinese operators, vessels, or crew engaged in international maritime transport and related services.

The US Trade Representative is due to impose port fees from October 14, though the final rules remain unpublished. US Customs & Border Protection is working on a collection system.

The opaqueness of the incoming legislation has led some to argue that, like other negotiating tactics that the Donald Trump trade team has adopted this year, the October 14 deadline may well be extended, or even scrapped.

“Not everyone is convinced that the October 14 USTR port call fees on China-made vessels and operators will materialise, as the issue may be part of the ongoing US-China negotiations,” commented Judah Levine, head of research at Freightos, a box booking platform in a note to clients earlier this month.

· Solstad secures DeepOcean CSV extension

Norwegian offshore vessel owner Solstad Maritime has landed a fresh contract extension with subsea services player DeepOcean for the construction support vessel (CSV) Normand Ocean.

The Oslo-listed company said the new deal will run for 12 months starting January 2026, continuing directly from the vessel’s current charter.

The 2014-built CSV has been employed with DeepOcean since delivery and remains a key part of the contractor’s North Sea operations.

Solstad already has future cover in place for the Normand Ocean. Last year, the vessel was fixed to Italian cabling specialist Prysmian on a five- year firm contract starting in 2027, with options that could extend employment until 2034.

· Advantage Tankers firms fresh VLCC and suezmax orders in South Korea

Geneva-based Advantage Tankers has stepped up its move into the large tanker segment with fresh orders in South Korea, adding one very large crude carrier (VLCC) and two suezmaxes to its books.

Industry sources said the Tugrul Tokgoz-led outfit has exercised an option for a 320,000 dwt VLCC at Hanwha Ocean in Okpo, due for delivery in September 2027. The deal follows a string of earlier VLCC contracts at the same yard, priced around $129.7m each, with brokers estimating the latest ship at $127m.

The privately held company, founded in 2014 and controlled by Nazli Williams, operates a mixed fleet of 26 tankers, including six VLCCs. Its latest order takes Advantage deeper into the crude segment at a time when charter rates for large tankers remain volatile but firm compared to recent years.

In a parallel move, Advantage has booked two 157,000 dwt LNG-ready suezmaxes at DH Shipbuilding, with delivery lined up for July and September 2027. No price has been disclosed for the pair.

Baltic Index Reports 29^th September, 2025

BALTIC INDICES 30/09/2025

DRY INDEX: 2134 (-86)

CAPESIZE INDEX: 3305 (-219)

PANAMAX INDEX: 1776 (-42)

SUPRAMAX INDEX: 1473 (-5)

HANDYSIZE INDEX: 856 (+6)

BCI TC AVG $/DAY 27405 (-1823)

BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 15985 (-373)

BSI TC AVG $/DAY 18624 (-59)

BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 15400 (+104)

TIMECHARTER

‘Basic Explorer’ 2023 82609 dwt dely Lanshan 2/3 Oct trip via EC Australia redel China $16,500

‘Lagoon Trader’ 2024 82232 dwt dely retro Krishnapatnam 25 Sep trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $17,500

‘Rostrum Stoic’ 2023 82175 dwt dely Jorf Lasfar 29 Sep trip via Kamsar redel Aughinish $19,000 – WBC

‘Sea Glory’ 2016 81895 dwt dely Yeosu 3/6 Oct trip via NoPac redel Singapore-Japan $16,000

‘Vishva Jyoti’ 2012 81894 dwt dely aps Richards Bay 25/30 Oct trip redel India $14,000 + $400,000 bb – Seapol

‘Zephyros’ 2016 81805 dwt dely Kinuura 2 Oct trip via EC Australia redel China $16,750 – Tongli

‘Kerkyra’ 2012 81375 dwt dely Algeciras 29 Sep trip via St Lawrence redel Skaw-Gibraltar $17,000 – Element

‘Shen Hua 812’ 2014 76124 dwt dely Nansha 1/2 Oct trip via Indonesia redel S China $14,750

‘NS Xiamen’ 2006 74381 dwt dely Fangcheng 1 Oct trip via Indonesia redel S China $13,250

‘NVL Jupiter’ 2011 57809 dwt dely passing Singapore

2 Oct trip via Indonesia redel Bangladesh $14,500 – ASL

‘Allegra’ 2011 35188 dwt dely UK prompt trip via Poland redel West Africa/Angola intention grains $18,300 – Oldendorff

‘Lopa T’ 2012 33694 dwt dely Rio Grande 2 Oct trip via Santos redel Morocco $22,000 – Pacific Basin

VOYAGES ORE

‘TBN’ 170000/10 TRMT/Qingdao 10/12 Oct $7.70 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc – Vale

COAL

‘Wooyang TBN’ 80000/10 Balikpapan/Boryeong 4/13 Oct $8.77 fio 25000shinc/1900lt shinc – Kepco tender

‘TBN’ 75000/10 Newport News/Visakhapatnam 1/10 Nov $37.55 fio 40000sshex/20000sshex – Sail

‘TBN’ 75000/10 HPCT/Visakhapatnam 1/10 Nov $16.95 fio 45000shinc/20000sshex – Sail

‘TBN’ 75000/10 HPCT/Gangavaram 18/27 Oct $19.45 fio 40000shinc/40000shinc – RINL

MISC

‘Oldendorff TBN’ 67000-68000 mop Portland/Lianyungang&Zhenjiang 31 Sep/4 Oct $26.75 fio 20000shinc/32000shinc – Canpotex

Baltic Exchange Index – 30 SEPTEMBER 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index

Route Description Value Change
========================================== ===

C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV       32,014 – 2093
C9_182                182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan            53,750 – 1913
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV       29,060 – 2442
314_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage                           29,865 – 2085
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul                                              11,238 – 1037
=======================================================
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average               30,563 – 2059

Baltic Exchange Index – 30 SEPTEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 3305 (- 219)

Route   Description                           Value($) Change
====== =================================== ====
C2     160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam          12.564 -0.515
C3     160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao      24.740 -1.015
C5     160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 10.095 -0.480
C7     150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam       14.664 -0.529
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV   29,143 -1650
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 49,281 -1782
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 25,865 -2400
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 26,020 -1850
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 7,906 -1000
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 18.750 -0.603
========================================== ====
5TC    Weighted Timecharter Average           27,405 – 1823

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 30 SEPTEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,776 (-42)

Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= =====
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 17,000 -423
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 24,208 -675
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 15,185 -263
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,809 -57
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 15,457 -426
====== ================================= =====
P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 15,985 – 373

The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.

Route Description                        Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ====
P5_82 S. China Indo RV                                               15,078          -119
P7     66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 55.357       -0.436
P8          66000mt Santos to Qingdao              39.007       -0.379

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 30 September 2025

Route   Description Size (MT)      Value($) Change
=====   ======================     ========
P5_82   S.China one Indo RV        15,087    +69

Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 30 SEPTEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1473 (-5)

Route   Description                                   Value ($) Change
====== ========================================= =====
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 21,700 +504
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 31,914 +45
BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 15,679-128
BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 15,050-350
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 34,518+132
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 15,046+21
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 22,768+32
BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 17,833-167
BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 18,993+ 222
S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 13,214-150
S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 15,729-134
====== ========================================= ====
S11TC   Weighted Timecharter Average                    18,624 -59
S10TC   Supramax(58) Timecharter Average             16,590 -59

Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 30 September 2025

Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 15,679 -128
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 17,833 -167
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 13,214 -150
====== =============================== =======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 15,589 -145

Baltic Exchange Index – 30 SEPTEMBER 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 856 (+6)

Route   Description                                 Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== ======
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro           10,664 +246
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston            13,514 +235
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero           23,622 +211
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Pass             22,407 +128
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan                                    13,957 +71
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jp             12,838 -31
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia                            12,650 -63
====== ======================================== ======
7TC     Weighted Timecharter Average                 15,400 + 104

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