Baltic Exchange Market Report Friday 22nd August 2025
Baltic Dry Index: 1944 (51)
Baltic Capesize Index: 2793 (90)
Baltic Panamax Index: 1770 (51)
Baltic Supramax Index: 1424 (19)
Baltic Handysize Index: 725 (6)
CAPESIZE
The Capesize market closed the week on a slightly more positive note, with the BCI 5TC climbing $742 to finish at $23,160.
In the Pacific, two miners were active, with a fixture concluded at $9.50, helping lift the C5 index by 0.645 to 9.395. Sentiment in the Atlantic also improved, supported by a firmer FFA market, though physical activity on C3 remained relatively thin on index dates. The ballaster list has shown signs of tightening, lending a degree of support. For end-September dates, bids were heard at $23.50 against offers ranging between $24.50 and $25.00. The C3 index inched higher by 0.171 to settle at $23.440, rounding off a week that, despite earlier softness, ended with a more constructive tone across both basins.
Atlantic
The Polaris controlled OTSL Hera (177,728 2009) fixed 170,000/10 Tubarao to Qingdao 15/20 September at $22.50.
Asia
FMG fixed a TBN for 160,000/10 Port Hedland to Qingdao 7/9 September at $9.50. MOL has been awarded the Baosteel tender for 170,000/10 Dampier to China 5/14 September at low $9.00’s, lacking further details.
PANAMAX
The week ended on 22nd August on a solid firm footing with sentiment remaining positive.
The Atlantic still appeared tight tonnage wise on the nearby position and expectancy is for further gains to come with demand remaining healthy. South America tapered off as the weekend beckoned with charterers seemingly taking stock.
Activity in Asia was slow today with little to report, but the market here seemed balanced although some talk of the tonnage count growing.
The BPI Timecharter average yielded a $4683 advance to close at $15,932 on publishing.
Period rumours included reports of the scrubber fitted First Margaux (82,276 2023) Qinzhou 31 August fixed basis 1 year at $15,500, with the scrubber benefit split 50/50.
Atlantic
Uncorroborated reports had the LMZ Francisco (82,044 2019) retro sailing Hazira 16 August fixed for a trip via EC South America redelivery Singapore-Japan at $17,500 with Messrs Koch trading.
Olam were linked to the Panagia Force (81,791 2007) Singapore 23 August fixed for a trip via EC South America redelivery Singapore-Japan at $13,750.
Asia
The Kypros Loyalty (77,9988 2015) Yosu 28 August was heard placed on subjects for a Pacific round trip at $14,000 however precise details were lacking.
The KM MT Jade (81,487 2008) Phu My 25/28 August was secured for a trip via Indonesia redelivery China at a rate in the region low $14,000’s, whilst the VSC Poseidon (74,957 2013) CJK 26/28 August was placed on subjects for a trip via China redelivery India, further details unknown.
SUPRAMAX
Despite was rather subdued end to week, sentiment generally remained positive. The US Gulf was again positional, but some felt that the recent demand for Trans-Atlantic runs had come to an end, but rates remained healthy for fronthaul business. The Continent-Mediterranean continued to see sustained demand and rates improved slightly although actual fixing information was sparce.
The South Atlantic remained finely balanced. Little fresh information surfaced from the Asian arena, although again sentiment was positive going into the weekend. The 11TC average finished the week up $238 at $17,994.
Atlantic
The Veruda (51,886 2011) open Marmara fixed via Garrucha to the UK
$16,000 with Cetus. Elsewhere, the Nyon (63,465 2021) ballasting from Rotterdam to US Gulf fixed at $30,000 basis delivery SW Pass for a trip back to the Continent with grains, but no more details surfaced.
Asia
An Ultramax was heard fixed from the Far East to the Continent at $16,000 but no more details were disclosed.
HANDYSIZE
A positive end to the week overall, certainly from the Atlantic. General feeling was of better demand both from the US Gulf and the South Atlantic and rates remained healthy for the time of year.
The Continent-Mediterranean also gained ground but maybe a a slightly slower pace than of late. The Asian arena also gained a little ground and a steady pace with a balanced supply and demand situation.
The 7TC average closed up a further $109 at $13,054.
Atlantic
The Glorieuse (38,338 2012) open Salvador was linked to Solar fixing a vessel for a trip via Upriver to Algeria in the $18,000s basis delivery Recalada.
Asia
The SSI Providence (37,899 2020) open Cai Lan 24/25 August was heard fixed for a trip redelivery Japan with wood pellets at around
$13,000 but more details did not surface. The Melody Selmer (37,452 2013) open Samalaju 20 August was heard to have been placed on subjects for a trip via West Australia redelivery Arabian Gulf with alumina in the $14,000s, with no more details came to light.
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 25 AUG 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 14,128 +67
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 25 August 2025
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 16,471 +171
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 20,450 + 71
S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 16,271 + 32
====== =============================== =======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 17,567 +102
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd 2025
Maritime Asset Markets (2025).
The global maritime Sale and Purchase (S&P) market in 2025 is defined by a confluence of policy shocks, cyclical freight swings, and structural adjustments to risk pricing. Tariff impositions, liquidity shifts, and regulatory pressure are reshaping how capital allocates into shipping, with vessel provenance and compliance now weighted as heavily as freight earnings.
Tariffs and the Impact on Vessel Values
The imposition of tariffs on Chinese-built ships, scheduled for full effect in October 2025, has re-shaped shipbuilding economics. These measures apply additional costs for Chinese-built vessels calling at U.S. ports, disrupting decades of cost advantage. One of the most significant factors shaping the shipping Sale and Purchase market this year has been the imposition of tariffs, particularly affecting Chinese-built ships compared to their Japanese counterparts. Buyers have demonstrated caution toward Chinese tonnage, as tariffs have effectively reduced its attractiveness in both financing and resale value. As a result, a clear pricing gap persists between Japanese and Chinese vessels of similar age and specifications.
Provence Premium Spread Widening:
Historically, Chinese-built bulkers traded at a 10–15% discount to Japanese units. In 2025, that gap has widened to 30–40% for some mid-age Handy & Supramax tonnage. For example, a 10-year-old Chinese-built Supramax is currently changing hands at around $14.5–15.5 million, while an equivalent Japanese-built unit commands $19.5–20.5 million. This premium of roughly 30% underscores the market’s consistent preference for Japanese quality, perceived longevity, and stronger residual value despite the additional cost. The tariffs have only widened this spread, as risk-averse buyers steer toward vessels that are easier to finance and charter.
Liquidity Divide: In Q2, nearly 65% of Japanese-built sales marketed found a buyer within 60 days; the equivalent figure for Chinese-built candidates was under 20% Vessel’s with poor fuel efficiency or Chinese provenance saw thin buyer interest, often sitting on the market for 90–120 days without firm offers.
This gap also highlights a broader trend: investors and owners see Japanese-built tonnage as a safer store of value, while Chinese units remain largely price-driven purchases, especially in more speculative plays. Tariffs have effectively compressed the historic “China discount” into a long-term penalty, embedding geopolitical risk into asset pricing and financing terms.
Volumes of S&P Transactions
Transaction volumes this year have closely followed the trajectory of freight earnings. The first quarter was muted, with limited activity due to depressed freight levels. However, anticipation of tariff hikes triggered a degree of front-loading of raw material purchases in late Q1 and early Q2, with charterers rushing to charter vessels, hence we saw trickle-down effect on the Sale & Purchase volumes as well, as freights especially in the Dry Bulk segment improved the buyers sentiment.
Front-loaded deals in Q2/Q3:
Transaction counts rebounded as buyers accelerated purchases of Japanese/Korean tonnage ahead of the October tariff deadline. In June alone, over 3.5m dwt changed hands, a monthly high for the year. Overall, dry bulk S&P activity rose by more than 20% in the first half compared to the same period last year, despite soft freight performance.
Tanker volumes, however, were more subdued as earnings correction in late 2024 left some hesitation in the market.
Buyers in bulkers were particularly aggressive in the geared segment (Handy and Supramax), seeing value opportunities amid the widening Japanese vs Chinese pricing gap.
Sharp Q1 contraction:
Global S&P volumes fell by ~35% year-on-year in Q1 2025, marking the weakest quarter since mid-2020.
Tanker Market Asset Values
The tanker sector has undergone a dramatic correction since its peak. Asset values in the crude tanker segment fell sharply during 2025, particularly in the VLCC class, where benchmark earnings significantly corrected.
Values for modern VLCC’s dropped by nearly 20% in less than six months. Buyers are positioning selectively; MRs, Aframax and Suezmax units attract stronger competition, while VLCCs remain a latent value play.
Recent months have shown the first signs of revival, particularly in the Suezmax and Aframax segments, as increased ton-mile demand and shifting trade patterns begin to filter into earnings.
The VLCC market remains subdued and “waiting for revival,” as
demand growth has yet to match the capacity overhang.
Investors are increasingly eyeing VLCC’s as a counter-cyclical play, with prices starting to show some signs of stabilization.
The MR2 segment after showing significant correction, we are seeing the re-emergence of several buyers in the 15 year Old segment, where the values have significantly corrected. The key question for investors is timing, but there is no doubt that the large crude carrier sector is poised for upside once freight rates recover.
Gas Market
The gas carrier sector presents a split narrative. On one hand, the LNG market has been at historical lows, with both spot and short-term charter rates depressed. Ample fleet availability combined with softer-than-expected Asian demand growth has weighed heavily on sentiment. LNG carrier asset values reflect this weakness, with modern units trading well below their highs of 2022–2023.
S&P liquidity in gas is polarized:
LNG deals are limited to charter backed tonnage, while VLGCs remain hotly contested with buyers reluctant to part with income-generating assets.
The LPG market has outperformed significantly, driven by strong propane demand, particularly in Asia and the U.S. Asia trade flows.
Earnings for Very Large Gas Carriers (VLGC’s) have remained resilient, supporting firm second hand values.
Vintage LPG units have even appreciated in value over the last year, a stark contrast to the LNG segment.
VLGC’s: Freight rates surged past USD 60/ton on the U.S.– Asia route in Q2, equating to daily earnings of ~USD 65,000/day, nearly triple the five-year average.
Spot LNG carrier rates fell to as low as USD 15,000/day in Q1 2025, the lowest in a decade, due to oversupply and delayed liquefaction projects.
The bifurcation between LNG and LPG highlights the importance of commodity fundamentals, as LPG’s strong industrial and residential consumption base provides stability even during wider market corrections.
Dry Bulk and Container Markets
In dry bulk, values have rebounded in line with stronger-than expected freight performance in Q2 and Q3. Older tonnage has been particularly active, supported by a favourable price-to- earnings ratio. Buyers see these vessels as attractive plays, able to generate substantial returns within just a few years of solid freight earnings.
Newbuilding Market and Strategic Outlook
Global new orders in H1 2025 totalled under 12m dwt, less than half the level recorded in the same period of 2023.
Newbuilding activity has slowed significantly, as tariff risks and uncertainty around regulatory frameworks weigh on sentiment. Compared to the previous year, orders are down nearly 70% in dry bulk segment, with many Owners preferring to acquire modern second-hand units rather than commit to expensive and uncertain newbuilds.
The Net Fleet Growth Valve:
With net fleet growth projected at only ~2.1% in 2025–26, the slowdown curbs speculative overcapacity and lends medium- term support to freight markets. This hesitancy is amplified by the wide gap between newbuilding prices and second-hand earnings potential. While shipyards remain busy with legacy
orders, fresh contracting is limited outside of gas carriers and specialized tonnage.
The newbuilding slowdown reinforces the case for second-hand values, as supply growth is capped at a time when demand in dry bulk and LPG remains resilient.
Blessing in Disguise:
The newbuilding slowdown acts as a stabilizer, suppressing speculative growth and indirectly supporting asset values across the board.
This year’s Sale and Purchase market has been shaped by tariffs, divergent sector fundamentals, and a cautious outlook on newbuilding activity. The clear pricing gap between Chinese and Japanese tonnage continues to define transaction strategies, while the correction in Tankers and LNG contrasts with the recent strength in bulkers, LPG, and feeder containers.
Investment Shift:
We are shifting to a risk-adjusted cash flow lens:-
Ships are no longer evaluated solely as freight vehicles, but as long-term financial instruments whose viability hinges on compliance, technology, and geo-political optionality.
The current environment offers interesting entry points, particularly in the dry bulk sector and selectively in wet & container segments.
With older vessels generating healthy returns relative to their acquisition cost, while constrained newbuilding activity, keeping future in check, the supply-demand balance is favourable.
The positive combination of attractive valuations, resilient freight rates, and capped future supply sets the stage for a rewarding investment window in shipping today.
Disciplined Allocation: Means favouring eco, provenance secure, and charter-backed assets, while this doesn’t necessarily means that shrewd seasoned Ship-Owners are avoiding tonnage whose upside is based on their cyclical nature.
Wishing All Readers
a Happy Ganesh Chaturthi on 27th August
Marex Media
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