The Succession Question Hanging Over China’s Future

“For more than a decade, Chinese politics has been defined by one man: Xi Jinping,” write Tyler Jost and Daniel Mattingly in the forthcoming issue of Foreign Affairs. “Xi probably has years, perhaps even more than a decade, before he steps down.” But as the search begins for the country’s next leader, Chinese politics will be “defined by the question of succession.”

“The vacuum left by a strongman such as Xi” could trigger “a scramble for power and a fight over the direction of the country.” But it could also create an opening for a “more moderate and temperate leader” to emerge—as happened a few years after the death of Mao Zedong.

Deng Xiaoping, Mao’s eventual successor, was convinced that the Chinese Communist Party needed to reform, “Xi’s successor might come to the same conclusion.”

“Is the world watching globalization Fall Apart ?”

In response to US tariffs, in early April, the UK Prime Minister’s office declared, “The world has changed, globalization is over and we are now in a new era.” But are US President’s trade war and immigration policies the only reasons for collapse of globalization, if at all ?

Trumpism is a ‘reaction to the failure of Reganism’. Republicans, Trump holds, have realized that globalization and economic liberalism haven’t benefitted the middle class. Today’s anti-global moment did not start in 2024. Thousands of protestors march in Seattle in 1999 to oppose the WTO Summit, was an early sign of backlash against globalization. “Slowbalization” today echoes the reversal of a century ago and its survival may depend on the Internet now.

The Balance of Power:

Donald Trump’s lashing out at India risks trashing decades of careful diplomacy with New Delhi — and driving it closer to China.

The US president’s attacks are motivated by his frustration over failing to end Russia’s war in Ukraine. India offers an easy source of leverage: After Western nations imposed sanctions on Russian oil exports, India swooped in to buy its crude at a deep discount.

Never mind that India did this for years, with full US knowledge

and consent. India says its actions are “a necessity” and has signalled it won’t comply with Trump’s demands.

Russian pipeline gas exports to Europe rose 36% month- on-month in July 2025, data shows. But who is to be Blamed “India”?

The U.S. is still buying Titanium and Russia is selling natural resources, including metals such as aluminum, copper, and nickel, as well as minerals such as diamonds and gold. These products are in high demand in the US for various industrial and manufacturing purposes, leading to significant imports from Russia.
A $2 trillion market for securities linked to US inflation data could be the first area of Treasuries that would crack if the US Bureau of Labor Statistics is politicized, according to bond investors.
Since President Donald Trump fired BLS chief Erika McEntarfer on Friday following a jobs report that showed unemployment rising on his watch, investors have fretted that the unprecedented move could erode trust in government data. Even before Trump’s outburst, questions were being raised about how long America’s “gold standard” system for economic data could withstand his effort to centralize power by collapsing firewalls meant to protect independent agencies.

Shipping News 6th August 2025

Trump threats might not be enough to wean India off Russian oil

Taking 2m bpd of crude out of the market would create huge shockwaves No matter how much pressure US President Donald Trump applies, Kpler does not see India backing off Russian oil entirely.

Naveen Das, senior crude oil analyst at the trade analytics firm, said India has brought inasmuch as 2m barrels per day of Russian crude, and any large shift away from that would create huge shockwaves in the market.

“In terms of a complete change of slate or a complete shift away, taking 2m bpd of Russian crude away from the market is a massive shift,” Das said during a webinar on Tuesday.

Controversial tanker arrested as buyer claims shipowner lied about its sanctions status

Arrest highlights need for enhanced due diligence when dealing with older ships and their opaque Owners.

Cash buyer-linked Shipowning vehicle Global Maritime Ltd arrested an Aframax tanker awaiting beaching at Alang on Monday, claiming its owner did not disclose that the vessel was sanctioned by multiple countries.

The legal dispute underscores the importance of rigorous due diligence for any buyer considering older tankers with questionable histories.

Brace for ‘big impact’ from next wave of sanctions, says d’Amico boss

Ever tougher measures will begin to bite, to the benefit of product tanker market

Tougher sanctions on Russia look likely to reduce fleet availability and lead to higher product tanker rates, says a leading tanker boss.

Carlos Balestra di Mottola, chief executive of d’Amico International Shipping (DIS), said the latest round of European Union sanctions, on top of others to be applied next January, should benefit the clean tanker sector.

“I think that the sanctions that are being placed are going to have quite a big impact on the market.

· Global Ship Lease sells another boxship and locks in forward cover

Charters secured for the whole of 2025 and most of 2026

Container ship lessor Global Ship lease has confirmed the sale of another of it’s older container ships.

· Emissions collection barges given green light to work on tankers in California

Stax Engineering offers emissions collection service to vessels not able to use shore power US emissions technology firm Stax Engineering has been given the green light to use its emissions gathering kit on tankers in the US.

The California-based firm has been given official authorisation to use its technology on chemical and oil tankers that come into the state’s ports.

· First Ship Lease earnings buoyed by tanker sale

Singapore shipowner looks set to focus on its existing fleet of product tankers for now. Gains from a vessel sale helped First Ship Lease Trust book improved results for the first half.

Profit before tax rose by 27% year on year to $1.75m, including a $700,000 gain on the sale.

There was a near-27% fall in revenue to $3m for the period.

· Meet the fourth-generation US shipping leader helping America build LNG carriers again

Hanwha Shipping chief executive playing role in vast group ‘ecosystem’

When Hanwha Group tapped Ryan Lynch to lead its US shipping arm and eventually forge a landmark deal for the first US LNG carrier order in nearly 50 years, it did not just pick a veteran of American shipping.

The company chose a US shipping leader who was practically born into the industry.

Lynch describes himself as the fourth generation of his family in the US maritime industry.

Oil Drops as Markets Digest OPEC+ Supply Decision

Oil prices dropped to their lowest in a week on Monday as markets digested OPEC+’s decision to implement another significant output increase in September.

The Green Hydrogen Hype Is Fading
The green hydrogen market is facing significant challenges, including high production costs and insufficient market demand, leading to the cancellation or delay of numerous multi-billion-dollar projects globally.
Major energy companies are withdrawing from green hydrogen ventures and returning focus to their core oil and gas businesses, while government policy measures have been insufficient to create the necessary demand for scale-up.
Regulatory uncertainties, financing hurdles, and operational challenges are key reasons for the slow uptake of low-carbon hydrogen, impacting projects in regions like Australia, Europe, and the United States.
The green hydrogen drive is losing momentum as start- ups face rising costs and uncertain demand while energy majors back out of multi-billion-dollar projects as they return to their core oil and gas business.
Low-emissions hydrogen, including the “green” variety produced with electrolysis using renewable energy, remains a small portion of global hydrogen use, which currently is mostly of the type using fossil fuels to make.
Despite the promises of zero emissions in green hydrogen use and the environmentally-friendly way of producing green hydrogen, the market has faced up to the fact that the low-carbon type of hydrogen made from renewables remains very expensive and needs a lot of subsidies, incentives, and government support to exist.
The promise of green hydrogen is enormous—low-carbon fuels that can help decarbonize heavy industries, including refining and chemicals.
But the reality on the ground is quite different. Green hydrogen remains too expensive to warrant multi-billion- dollar investments when demand is not there. Demand is being created by policymakers and governments, which isn’t a good sign of market demand.

China builds China.

Indians help build America?

A viral X post is sparking debate about how Chinese & Indian students take very different paths in the U.S.

Chinese students:

Arrive on F1/H1B visas
- Study, learn skills/IP
- Return to China

Ban U.S. apps (Facebook, Instagram, WhatsApp)
- Build domestic tech giants (WeChat, TikTok, Alibaba)

Indian students:

Arrive to study/work
- Settle in the U.S.
- Lead global firms
- Rarely return to India

The result? China builds China. Indians help build America.

· Trump says he will raise India tariffs in next 24 hours over Russia oil

US President accuses New Delhi of ‘fuelling the war machine’

Shipping rates dive as China- US front-loading tapers off

Trump tariffs prompt warnings of rough second half for transport sector. Shipping activity between China and the U.S. is expected to slow down during the usually busy third quarter, when retailers stock up for the ‘back-to-school’ and Christmas – New Year shopping season.

Purchasing a Big Mac in instalments may seem ludicrous. But whether it’s for lunch or concert tickets, more and more people are using buy-now, pay-later financing. Some fear this new form of finance is facilitating risky borrowing by consumers living beyond their means. We may not know for sure until there is a severe economic downturn.

We examine Donald Trump’s decision to fire the person in charge of the Bureau of Labour Statistics after it released worse-than- expected jobs numbers. Mr Trump continues to undermine confidence in America’s economic data. Will anyone believe the next jobs report is on the level?

Spy war at Sea? Moscow alleges UK planning shadow fleet strikes; Nato named.

Russia’s foreign intelligence service alleged UK of planning attacks on its “shadow fleet” oil tankers. The Telegraph cited claims from Moscow’s SVR (Intelligence), alleging that British intelligence is plotting to target Russian ships which are used by Russia to trade oil.

The SVR report stated: “British intelligence services are planning to use NATO allies to launch a mass raid on the ‘Shadow Fleet’, for this purpose, an ecological catastrophe in International waters is being prepared.”

USTR Port Fees: Overview and Exemptions

The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) is implementing new port fees targeting Chinese-owned, operated, or built vessels entering U.S. ports, effective October 14, 2025.

The main features are: • From October 14th, 2025, the following fees will be charged up to 5 times per year on any individual vessel: o Chinese-owned and operated ships : $50 per net ton of the vessel (this will increase annually by $30 per ton until 2028 for a total of $140 per ton) o Chinese-built ships owned by non-Chinese companies : $18 per net ton of the vessel (this will increase annually by $5 per ton until 2028 for a total of $33 per ton) •

Key Exemptions: • Vessels arriving empty or in ballast (not delivering cargo to the U.S.). • US-owned vessels: Exempt if at least 75% beneficially owned by U.S. persons. • Small vessels: Exempt if capacity is ≤4,000 TEU (containers), ≤55,000 deadweight tons (DWT), or for bulk carriers, ≤80,000 DWT.

Please note that many believe this requires more clarification as to if the exemption is based on deadweight or net tonnage. •

Short-haul voyages: Exempt if the vessel has traveled less than 2,000 nautical miles to the U.S. • Specialized or special purpose-built vessels for the transport of chemical substances in bulk liquid forms Please note that many believe this requires more clarification as to if crude oil and refined products are classified as such substances.

Certain U.S. Maritime Administration program vessels (e.g., Maritime Security Program, Tanker Security Program). •

Fee remission: Operators can get up to three years’ remission if they order and take delivery of a U.S.-built vessel of equivalent or greater capacity.

Non-Exemptions: • Chinese-owned/operated vessels: No exemptions, including those owned by Hong Kong or Macau companies.

Fleet makeup: Fees are assessed per vessel, not on the operator’s entire f leet. Tariffs: • A universal 10% tariff on nearly all U.S. imports from all countries took effect on April 5, 2025 under President Trump’s invocation of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA).
Higher, individualized “reciprocal” tariffs for countries with the largest U.S. trade deficits were announced to take effect on April 9, 2025. However, the implementation of these higher tariffs for 57 countries was delayed for 90 days after a market crash, pushing the effective date to July 8, 2025.
Canada and Mexico were initially subject to a 25% tariff, but goods compliant with the USMCA were later exempted, which includes oil and gas.
Tariffs on Chinese goods peaked at 145% during the trade war escalation, but after a trade agreement, U.S. tariffs on Chinese goods were reduced to 30% (including a 10% baseline and 20% fentanyl tariff) as of June 2025.

Baltic Exchange News:
BDI 1,921 – VLCC Spot $21,200 / Day – LNG $20,000/day
BALTIC INDICES 05/08/2025
DRY INDEX: 1921 (- 49)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 3006 (- 152)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1625 (- 8)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 1279 (+ 9)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 676 ( 0)

BCI TC AVG $/DAY 24929 (- 1258)
BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 14625 (- 71)
BSI TC AVG $/DAY 16170 (+ 119)
BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 12167 (- 3)

TIMECHARTER

‘Medi Serapo’ 2018 87091 dwt dely Ijmuiden 4 Aug trip via US East Coast redel India $29,000 – Tata NYK

‘Star Electra’ 2008 83494 dwt dely CJK 4/6 Aug trip via Bunbury redel Arabian Gulf intention alumina $11,400 –

Oldendorff

‘Haoyue’ 2016 82061 dwt dely Lumut 5 Aug trip via EC South America redel Singapore-Japan $14,500 –

Klaveness

‘Alexandros Petrakis’ 2008 76596 dwt dely Djen Djen 4 Aug trip via Ponta Da Madeira redel Eren $21,000 –

Element

‘Kiran Istanbul’ 2013 63610 dwt dely Koh Sichang prompt trip via W Australia redel Singapore-Japan

$14,250 – Oldendorff

‘Bermondi’ 2009 55469 dwt dely Mombasa prompt trip via Nacala redel Arabian Gulf $16,000 – Teambulk

‘Western Stabaek’ 2024 40553 dwt dely Brake prompt trip redel US East Coast intention Wilmington intention packed timber $11,250 – UB Parcel

VOYAGES ORE

‘TBN’ 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 19/21 Aug $9.55 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc – Rio Tinto

‘TBN’ 160000/10 Port Hedland/Qingdao 20/22 Aug

$9.65 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – BHP

COAL

‘Livorno’ 2019 77000/10 Port Cartier/Ghent 16/25 Aug

$13.60 fio 48000shinc/30000shinc – Arcelormittal

‘TBN’ 75000/10 Hay Point-DBCT-Abbot Point/Visakhapatnam 1/10 Sep $16.95
Baltic Exchange Index – 05 AUGUST 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 3006 (-152)

Route Description Value($) Change

C2 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam 11.393 – 0.207
C3 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao 23.665 – 0.250
C5 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao 9.600 – 0.315
C7 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam 14.393 – 0.778
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 27,607 – 2607
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 48,063 – 937
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 23,286 – 1309
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 23,010 – 460
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero 3,563 – 375

C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 17.456 – 0.255

5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 24,929 – 1258

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 05 AUGUST 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,625 (- 8)

Route Description Value ($) Change

P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 17,132 – 482
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 23,079 – 277
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 12,308 + 123
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,188 +4

P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 13,795 + 153

P5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 14,625 – 71

The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.

Route Description Value ($) Change

P5_82 S. China Indo RV 12,461 – 67
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 53,857 – 0.157
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 37,414 + 0.035

Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 06 AUG 2025

Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change

P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 12,722 +261

Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 05 AUGUST 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 1279 (+ 9)

Route Description Value ($) Change

S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 16,388 -29
S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 25,464 + 1289 BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 14,386 – 33 BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 14,820 – 10
S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 25,136 + 1029
S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 11,739 – 47
BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 18,614 – 207 BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 17,800 + 139 BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 15,736 – 118

S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 14,604 + 70

S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 12,863 – 112

S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 6,170 + 119
S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 14,136 + 119

Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 06 August 2025

Route Description Value($) Change

S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 14,450+64
S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 17,938 +138

S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 14,711 +107

S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 15,537 +98

Baltic Exchange Index – 05 AUGUST 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 676 ( 0)

Route Description Value ($) Change

HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 6,664 + 50
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 8,879 + 50
HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 16,556 – 188
HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 14,343 – 125
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 13,088 + 100
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jp 12,381 0

HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 12,675 + 31

7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 12,167 – 3

Marex Media

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