Saving America
- US lost its last AAA rating to its debt problem, but any loss of confidence in US will be bad for all. For the first time in 100 years, America is without an AAA credit rating. It’s easy to blame Pres Trump, his tariff mess, and his planned tax cuts, for the loss, but this downgrade was a long time coming. To get back to an AAA rating, US would need to raise revenues – by increasing taxes, for example, or cut expenditure. The President is expected to do the latter, setting up a department of government efficiency, or DOGE, under Mr. Musk, was expected to trim government departments, staff strength and costs.
- Is there an opportunity for India in the US rating cut
by Moody’s ? There is something ironic about the world’s largest economy being nudged off its pedestal by a credit rating agency whose word it once treated as gospel. America’s debt trajectory has been climbing with the conviction of a mountain goat and grace of a runaway truck. Political brinkmanship over debt ceilings has become something of a domestic ritual. Here lies the American paradox. Despite its fiscal recklessness, the US is not in any conventional sense broke. For India, this moment warrants staying alert. As global investors re-assess risks, emerging markets are
likely to feel the pressure. India is in a relatively strong position. Economic growth is steady, foreign exchange reserves are healthy and inflation is within the Central Bank’s tolerance band. The risk, however, lies in the subtle erosion of confidence.
The US Treasury has long served as the traditional anchor of Global finance, a lighthouse in stormy waters. If that beacon begins to flicker, the sea does not immediately rise, but every ship adjusts course just a little. Indian portfolio managers, trade negotiators and central bankers may all need to re- calibrate their instruments.
- The US-China temporary trade agreement is a blunt reminder: Washington’s foreign policy under Pres. Trump is transactional. Deals matter, values don’t. This lesson is crucial for the Global South. Economic leverage secures a seat at the Table, not democratic credentials.
- Quote of the Day: At a time of global instability, and when European Continent faces the greatest threat it has for few years now, if not decades, Europe must stick together.
- India’s trade with Bangladesh: India has imposed import curbs on certain Bangladeshi goods, including readymade garments, which have risen sharply over the past 15 years. However, Bangladesh accounts for a tiny share of India’s imports.
- India eyes cheap oil to refill strategic reserves amid turmoil. India plans to take advantage of a drop in global crude oil prices to refill its strategic petroleum reserves (SPR), amid renewed geopolitical headwinds and a fresh
budgetry push to bolster the country’s energy security. India’s existing SPR capacity stands at 5.3 mio tonnes, enough to meet just 9.5 days of the country’s crude oil needs. As of October 2024, only 3.6 mio tonnes were stored, leaving a significant gap. This is the right time to fill the reserves, with Brent crude trading near a four-year low of around $65 per barrel. India imports over 85% of its oil and 55% of its gas needs.
- India shrinks its gas fleet as idle plants become un-usable. India has phased out about 5GW of gas-fired power capacity that became inoperable after being left idle for years. The Gas power industry has struggled for years.
- Can Bangladesh afford to mix Politics and Trade? Following the souring of ties, the interim government in Bangladesh has been imposing restrictions on Indian exports. India hit back with its own measures. Bilateral trade between the two countries could slip further. India announced major import route restrictions on goods from Bangladesh. These target over $700 million or 42% of all exports from Bangladesh. Bangladesh has been imposing restrictions on Indian exports since late 2024, banning imports of Indian Cotton yarn, which they need badly for their Garment industry, tightened curbs on rice shipments and banned dozens of Indian goods such as paper, tobacco, fish and powdered milk. The Bilateral trade touched a high of $18.2 billion in 2021/22 but since declined and stood at $12.2 billion in 2024/25.
· Why India has an edge in reset of global trade: The
US’s reciprocal tariffs on 2nd April put India at an advantage, but the flip-flops by the US President have added doubts and confusion. Will India still benefit from the Global trade reset?
- (1) China has become a manufacturing powerhouse;
- (2) Household consumption in China is low relative to the level of national income;
- (3) India’s sizable domestic market enhances its potential as a manufacturing base
- (4) China is Global leader in sectors key to national and economic security. In Steel production – percentage terms in 2023 China led by 54%, followed by in number two position India at 7%; In Shipbuilding by Gross tonnage : China 51%, S.Korea 28%, Japan at 15% this is already 94% between the three countries; In manufacture of Semi- conductors (advanced processing chips) : Taiwan 68%, US 12%, S.Korea 12% and China 8% – Total 100%; In
Cement production : China 53%, India 10%, Vietnam 3% and US 2%; In Car Production : China 32%, US 11%, Japan 10% and India 6%.
- The two hours of phone call talk between Trump and Putin yesterday did not produce yields – no breakthrough on Ukraine-Russia ceasefire, in effort to halt the war, raging for over three years. Pres. Putin refused to agree to an immediate cease-fire with Ukraine. Pres. Trump hinted that the US might step back from its mediator role if the negotiations falter. Pres. Putin’s refusal to sign on to a 30 day ease-fire supported by Kyiv was the latest set-back for Trump’s efforts to halt the three-year old conflict, another sign that Pres. Putin isn’t eager to make peace except on terms that Ukraine has so far said are un-acceptable to him. Pres. Trump did not rule out imposing new sanctions on Russia, but also signalled that they aren’t imminent.
- The contours of global trade are constantly shifting, with
India navigating an increasingly complex landscape. The US-China relationship oscillating between tariff reductions
and technology restrictions – has left many countries un- certain about their export prospects. Recent developments include the Trump administration’s first FTA with the U.K., which tied lower tariffs to excluding China from some supply chains, a temporary US-China tariff cut, and a Huawei AI chip ban.
- Push and Pull Factors: To assess India’s trade prospects, it is essential to distinguish between “Push” and “Pull” factors – ‘Push’ factors stem from external global shifts, while ‘Pull’ factors are rooted in India’s own economic structure.
- Rare-Earths plants are popping up outside China: In a warehouse deep in Brazil’s savanna, machines are churning through piles of red clay to produce chalky rocks packed with metals critical for making electric cars, smart- phones and missiles. These precious minerals are destined to the US and not China. China mine’s some 70% of the world’s rare earths, the 17 metallic elements primarily used in magnets for the civilian and military technologies. Canada’s Aclara Resources is opening a rare-earths mine to supply a processing plant it plans to build in the US, the location will be decided by August to build a plant for separating rare-earths deposits into individual elements. It has also signed up with VAC, a German company that is building a factory in S.Carolina with $94 million in Pentagon funding to make magnets for Clients including General Motors.
- The Indian Steel Ministry mulls separate Iron Ore Mining
vertical at SAIL, with a focus on mining operations for boosting the production of iron ore. SAIL is one the largest integrated steel companies with captive iron ore blocks in India.
- UK, EU announce new deals and renew ties The wide- ranging bilateral pacts, including on security and defence, are a first since Brexit. At the heart of the reset is a defence and security pact that will let Britain be part of any joint procurement. Britain said the reset with its biggest trading partner would reduce red tape for agricultural producers – making food cheaper – improve energy security and by 2040, add nearly Pds. 9 billion (US$12/1) to the economy.
- India is aiming to regain its market share in China’s rapeseed meal imports, taking advantage of the commodity’s lower price as compared to international rate amid global supply constraints, the Solvent Extractors’ Association of India said. The industry has urged the Min. of Commerce to negotiate with Chinese for relaxed import conditions.
- India has signed 12 MOU’s with Maldives for enhancing Ferry Services in the Island Nation with a grant of about Rs.55 crores, expanding maritime connectivity and uplifting community livelihoods.
- India’s top Automotive companies are knocking on the doors of the MOC expressing concerns that disruptions in the supply of rare earth magnets from China could bring their production to a stop. China controls almost the entire global supply of rare earth magnets that are essential for electric motors.
- Used cooking oil (UCO) is a renewable feedstock used to produce biofuels like biodiesel, renewable diesel, and sustainable aviation fuel. Since 2021, renewable diesel capacity in the US has tripled to almost 5bn USG/yr. Additionally sustainable aviation fuel production in the US continues to increase boosting demand for feedstocks like
UCO. As companies look to manage their price risk in this sector we have seen US Gulf Coast Used Cooking Oil futures contracts launched on CME Exchange in early December.
- India expects multi-phase trade deal with US as talks proceed
- India and the US are in talks for a trade agreement. The deal may happen in three stages. An initial agreement is expected before July, when Pres. Trump’s reciprocal tariffs are set to kick in. It will cover industrial goods and farm products. The Commerce Min. Mr. Piyush Goyal is in Washington for discussions. A broader deal is planned around September to November. The final agreement needs US Congress approval. Negotiations are ongoing despite some tensions. The timing for the second stage deal may be aligned with an expected visit by Trump to India for the Quad leadership summit.
- Precious Shipping Ltd., Bangkok (PSL) has won the
“Best Sustainability – Linked Bond – Transport (Thailand)” award at the Asset Triple A sustainable Awards 2025. This recognition is for their Landmark THB 1.36 billion Sustainability-Linked Bond (SLB) – the first of its kind issued to a Shipping Company in Asia. The issuance consisted of two tranches with maturities of 5 and 10 years, and was guaranteed by the Credit Guarantee and Investment Facility (CGIF), a Trust Fund of the Asian Development Bank (ADB). This milestone reflects PSL’s commitment to sustainable finance and to leveraging
innovative financial tools in support of de-carbonization in the Shipping Sector.
- EU defence and foreign ministers have a lot on their plates for their meeting today (Tuesday 20th May) in Brussels. They will sign off on new sanctions against Russia, including measures against its shadow fleet and its hybrid attack arsenal. Top diplomat Kaja Kallas is also expected to announce that the EU’s rapid deployment capacity, an initiative three years in the making to allow the bloc to quickly deploy up to 5,000 troops, is now operational, according to a senior EU official. But the bloc is also working on expanding its existing military training and civilian support missions to protect critical Ukrainian infrastructure and boost the country’s defence industry once a possible ceasefire is signed, according to this official.
- Russian President Vladimir Putin held out the prospect of
working on a potential truce with Ukraine following a two- hour call with US President Donald Trump. Putin described the call as “very frank” and “useful.” The two leaders agreed that Moscow would work on a memorandum with Ukraine on a future peace treaty. But during their call, Trump didn’t put pressure on the Russian leader to end the war or threaten any action if he didn’t, leaving many in Europe disappointed.
· Oldendorff newcastlemax sale revives secondhand market activity for big bulkers
- As trade wars pause, buying interest seems to be picking up as uncertainty weighs on the market. A lull in transactions in the second-hand market for big bulkers
has come to a halt, with market sources reporting several deals as done or in the making.
- This comes almost a month after the last time it was reported about a Capesize changing hands, as uncertain geopolitics and uncertain freight markets have been dampening buying interest in the meantime. With Pres. Trump seemingly putting his trade war on hold, however, animal spirits seem to be returning to the market.
· UK blacklists ship finance veteran involved in Russia shadow fleet S&P deals
British government also targets Russian captains and 18 ships in new round of sanctions.
The UK has sanctioned a British shipping finance veteran for his role in buying tankers that ended up in the Russian shadow fleet.
The blacklisting of John Ormerod, 74, is the first time a British person or business has been targeted over the sale of ships that have since hauled Russian oil.
Shadow fleet VLCC takes on final Russian crude cargo in new transfer hotspot
The ships were ultimately financed by Russia’s second-largest oil producer, Lukoil, according to the Financial Times, which first reported Ormerod’s role.
· Legal eagles land in Tokyo to tackle gaps in maritime law
- World’s maritime lawyers meet in Tokyo to try and fill dangerous gaps in patchwork of legal systems
- The Comite Maritime International — the precursor to the International Maritime Organization — convened in Tokyo last week for its 44th international conference, to mark its progress in harmonising global maritime law while raising fresh concerns. Delegates from the world’s national maritime legal associations (MLA’s) also acknowledged the frustrations of reaching international agreements in the current climate.
· MOL venture capital unit pumps cash into green hydrogen tech company
- Norway’s high-star raises $36m to fund commercial scale- up for electrolyser production. Mitsui OSK Lines’ venture capital arm was among investors in a funding round for Norwegian green hydrogen technology company Hystar.
- California-headquartered MOL Switch announced its involvement in the deal in a post on LinkedIn, without saying how much it contributed to the $36m fundraiser.
- This investment aligns with MOL Group’s “Blue Action 2035” decarbonisation strategy and represents a key step forward building the next generation of clean energy infrastructure.
· South Korea’s top three shipyards battle it out for $500m ethane carrier order
- Chinese shipyards excluded from ONGC’s plan to build three 100,000-cbm vessels
- Indian producer Oil and Natural Gas Corp (ONGC) is in talks with three Asian shipping giants to order a series of very large ethane carrier new-buildings that could be worth
$500m.
- South Korea’s HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, Samsung Heavy Industries and Hanwha Ocean are said to be the only shipyards asked to quote for construction of three 100,000-cbm ethane ships.
· ArcelorMittal and DryLog venture fixes new LNG bulker on long-term deal
- Global Chartering says it will operate next-generation ship owned by Kambara Kisen
- Greek bulker Owner DryLog has struck a long-term chartering deal with steel group ArcelorMittal to operate a new LNG dual-fuel Kamsarmax. The Joint Venture Global Chartering has agreed to a long-term contract for an unnamed “next generation” bulker owned by Japan’s Kambara Kisen. The company has an 82,500tdw dual-fuel ship called ‘Oceana Frontier’ due from parent yard Tsuneishi.
· Tufton-owned bulker makes big fuel saving using Flettner rotors
Cargill-chartered TR Lady’s performance varied as it sailed in Pacific, Atlantic and Indian Oceans
Wind assistance technology fitted to a Tufton Kamsarmax bulker has resulted in an average of 9.1% fuel savings and emissions reductions over a year.
Three Flettner rotors were fitted to the 82,048-dwt TR Lady (built 2017), which is on charter to Cargill and sailed on multiple routes across the Indian, Atlantic and Pacific oceans, rounding both the Cape of Good Hope and Cape Horn over the year.
· Mitsubishi Heavy Industries puts new methane-slip cutting tech on trial
Twelve-month pilot comes after land-based testing showed 70% reduction in escaped methane from LNG- fuelled engine
MHI has installed a unit on the 3,532-cbm KEYS Azelea (built 2024), an LNG bunker vessel owned by KEYS Bunkering Japan. The vessel is having a three Daihatsu four-stroke six- cylinder 320-millimetre bore dual-fuel engine.
Methane slip is the unburned methane in LNG fuel that passes through the engine and into the atmosphere.
It is problematic because it is a much more potent greenhouse gas than CO2.
MHI said its new oxidation catalyst works by converting the escaped methane into CO2 and water through a reaction with oxygen.
· Capesize spot market drops after a week of strong momentum
And things had been going so well.
- Over 10% of the tanfier fleet is now sanctioned following latest EU and UK measures
- Latest EU sanctions package doubles the number of sanctioned ships with UK adding more, taking the total to 706 ships globally sanctioned
- Brussels and London forge ahead with Russia sanctions without US support
- Sanctions are now moving away from oil price cap compliance towards illicit and dangerous shipping practices as a rationale for designation.
- The feared tsunami of cargo from China may turn out to be more of a minor swell. Even if there were a strong surge of shipments, it won’t cause anywhere near the kind of prolonged chaos at ports and warehouses that retailers suffered during the Covid pandemic.
· Global Economic Outlook – May 2025
- New tariff measures and subsequent pause indicative of a mixed narrative “Following weeks of at-times intense market turmoil, signs are emerging that the U.S. may be softening its trade stance. The U.S. has signalled that tariffs on the Chinese Mainland are unlikely to stay as high as they currently are and has agreed to a 90-day pause on tariffs, with import tariffs on the Chinese Mainland falling to 30% and on the U.S. to 10%. The EU believes that it too is making progress toward a trade deal. However, the U.S. administration has also implied that pharmaceuticals imports could be next in line for duties.
The subtle change in tone may be a sign that U.S. trade policy is shifting from universal tariffs to sector- or product- specific tariffs. To that end, the 90-day pause is in effect expiring July 8, 2025, indicating a willingness to engage in and even negotiate a reduction in trade barriers. None of this potential change to approach substantively alters the outlook for businesses. Uncertainty continues to be highly elevated. Cost structures remain under pressure, with input prices driven up by tariffs and supply chains facing disruption. Corporates are becoming increasingly cautious and are either lowering their earnings guidance or delaying it. Industries heavily integrated into global supply chains, such as auto manufacturers, are especially affected; Ford announced an expected USD1.5bn earnings hit because of the tough operating environment. As the U.S. continues to balance domestic political goals with economic realities, global businesses must remain agile.”
Recent Developments Global
- In Q1 2025, the U.S. economy shrank 0.3% (annualized), compared with the previous quarter, due to a surge in imports as businesses rushed to buy goods ahead of new tariffs being fully implemented. The Eurozone economy grew 0.3% according to a flash estimate.
- In its latest World Economic Outlook released in April 2025, the IMF lowered its global growth forecast.
- Global stock markets experienced significant volatility during April. Major indices in North America, Europe, and Asia dropped sharply on the back of new tariffs, declining commodity prices, and growing fears of a potential recession. The STOXX Europe 600, a broad measure of European stocks, saw its worst week in five years.
Friedrich Merz was elected as Germany’s new chancellor in April and took office on May 6. Chancellor Merz plans to end Germany’s two-decade borrowing limit and initiate almost USD1trn in spending.
- In April, the U.S. dollar continued to drop in value, falling to USD1.157:EUR from USD1.017:EUR at the start of 2025.
North America
- The U.S. economy shrank 0.3% (annualized) in Q1, compared with the previous quarter, largely because of higher imports.
- On April 2, the U.S. administration announced a comprehensive tariff strategy’, imposing significant duties on a wide range of imports. The tariffs were soon suspended for 90 days, during which a flat 10% baseline rate would apply to all countries except the Chinese Mainland, which saw tariffs temporarily rise to up to 145%. In mid-May, the U.S. and Chinese Mainland agreed a 90-day pause on tariffs, with import tariffs on the Chinese Mainland falling to 30% and on the U.S. to 10%.
- Mass protests broke out across the U.S. in response to the new tariffs, alongside concerns about proposed cuts to social programs and aggressive immigration policies.
- The Liberal Party of Canada (LPC), headed by Mark Carney, has won the snap general election. The party was three seats short of an overall majority but will still intend to revive the economy. PM Carney met the U.S. administration in early May to discuss revisiting the trade tariffs on Canada, which the U.S. said would remain for now.
- In April, the U.S. dollar continued to drop in value, falling to USD1.157:EUR from USD1.017:EUR at the start of 2025. U.S. stock indices dropped sharply in the days immediately after ‘Liberation Day’; the S&P 500 lost more than 12% in a week. • Canada has announced the Alto high-speed rail project connecting Toronto and Quebec City. The huge infrastructure project aims to create 51,000 jobs during construction. Western and Central Europe • In April, a major power outage caused nationwide blackouts in Spain and Portugal. This resulted in a shutdown of transport networks and forced businesses to close.
- In May, the U.K. held local elections; Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens all took seats away from the duopoly of Labour and the Conservatives, continuing the trend from the general election last year of shifting away from traditional politics. • The EU has delayed the introduction of tariffs on a range of U.S. goods in response to the 90-day pause on 20% U.S. tariffs on imports from the EU; most goods exported to the U.S. are still subject to a 10% tariff. • The European Central Bank (ECB) and the Bank of England (BoE) both cut their key policy rates by 25bps in April and May, respectively. The BoE has maintained a more restrictive policy, as in March, U.K. inflation (2.6%) remained higher than the Euro area (2.2%). Due to tough lending conditions, we expect the business environment to remain more challenging in the
U.K. than in the Euro area.
· Asia Pacific
- The U.S. and the Chinese Mainland reached an agreement in May to roll back all tariff increases imposed after April 2. Under the new arrangement, tariffs on U.S. exports to the Chinese Mainland will be set at 10%, while exports from the Chinese Mainland to the U.S. will face a 30% tariff. However, existing exemptions and higher tariffs under Article 232 will continue to apply.
- The Chinese Mainland has stepped up stimulus efforts through hiring subsidies for companies, expanded support for exporters, and a surge in local government bond issuance, while the People’s Bank of China (the central bank) has increased lending to state-backed investors to stabilize markets.
- South Korean customs have reportedly identified several Chinese Mainland-origin products, subject to higher U.S. tariffs or anti-dumping duties, being rerouted through Korea; similar suspicions apply to Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, and others.
- Following his re-election in May, Australian PM Anthony Albanese is expected to prioritize negotiating a favourable
trade agreement with the U.S. administration as one of his early policy moves.
- A terrorist attack on April 22 in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, targeting tourists sparked a conflict between India and Pakistan, with targeted military actions from both sides. Tensions between the two countries have de-escalated following a ceasefire announced in May.
· Latin America
- Latin America’s GDP growth is projected to slow down further from the 2.2% forecast for 2025, with Mexico, Brazil, and Venezuela expected to be the most affected economies; however, Argentina’s recovery is likely to provide a slight boost.
- Concerns about debt sustainability have eased in Argentina, following the IMF’s approval of a USD20.0bn package in April 2025. This support has been crucial in removing currency and most capital controls.
- • Economic activity in Mexico was weaker than expected in late 2024 and early 2025, impacted by U.S. tariffs, geopolitical tensions, and tightening financing conditions. Although exempt from the 10.0% baseline tariff, Mexico faces a 25.0% rate on non-compliant U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) goods, severely affecting its auto- related supply chains. Additionally, Mexico and Brazil face 25.0% tariffs on steel and aluminum exports to the U.S.
- • Brazil’s growth is expected to slow down due to impact of tariffs, inflationary pressures, monetary tightening, and fiscal uncertainty.
- • The U.S. has re-established the ‘Restricted List,’ cutting off Cuba’s access to foreign currency and limiting foreign investment. These sanctions are expected to increase costs further in 2025. Middle East and North Africa
- • Ceasefire agreements between Israel, Hamas, and Hezbollah have effectively broken down, as Israel continues airstrikes in Lebanon and Gaza, with no clear prospects for de-escalation.
- Oil prices continued to fall through April and early May 2025, as OPEC+ (led by Saudi Arabia and Russia) announced an above-expected increase in output, by 411,000 barrels per day for June, to put pressure on overproducing members.
- Saudi Arabia’s USD500bn Neom megaproject is reportedly undergoing a comprehensive review to optimize resource allocation amid tightening budgets and scaled-back spending due to falling oil prices.
- In April, the UAE’s Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreements (CEPAs) with Costa Rica, Mauritius, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) were either signed or came into force, reflecting its drive to diversify trading partners and mitigate global trade tensions.
- Lebanon has approved a comprehensive banking reform law and appointed a new central bank governor as part of efforts to address its prolonged financial crisis, helping to secure a USD250m loan from the World Bank.
- Euro-area inflation will fall below the European Central Bank’s target next year because of the fallout from US trade policies. According to the European Commission’s spring forecast, consumer-price growth will slow to the 2% goal by the middle of this year and average only 1.7% in 2026.
- Blink and you missed it. The historic downgrade of US sovereign debt announced Friday night only momentarily interrupted momentum. The S&P 500 rose 0.09% for its sixth consecutive daily gain, while bonds had a good day despite Moody’s negative judgment. After an initial selloff, the 10-year Treasury yield closed the day at 4.44%, 3.2 basis points lower for the day.
- Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s dismissal of the agency as a “lagging indicator” of US fiscal policy looks to have been right. It had no significant short-term impact.
- That said, Moody’s nailed a broader truth — that US debt has surged. Germany’s post-Global Financial Crisis “debt brake” left it with space to borrow now. American debt kept rising and takes a bigger share of the economy than China’s.
Even though Treasury debt is the linchpin of the world financial system, it is now lower-rated than 10 other countries: Australia, Canada, Denmark, Germany, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Singapore, Sweden, and Switzerland. So, there are alternatives, even if they’re nowhere near deep enough to soak up all the money in Treasuries. As Europe embarks on extra borrowing
to bolster defence — at a stronger rating than Treasuries
— there could be more triple-A bonds available to buy, as Deutsche Bank AG illustrates:
- A massive ADNOC Offshore platform located 40km off the coast of Abu Dhabi, this high capacity site is one of the UAE’s most advanced oil fields, with the ability to produce upto 135,000 barrels of oil per day. Built and engineered in the UAE, Umm Lulu is central to ADNOC’s strategy to ramp up domestic manufacturing and energy output. This facility plays a key role in supporting both the national economy and global energy security. The recent high- profile visit of the US President. His meeting with the ADNOC CEO Dr. Sultan al Jaber saw new commitments under $440 billion energy investment plan – part of a wider $1.4 trillion in the UAE-US economic corridor.
BALTIC INDICES 20/05/2025
DRY INDEX: 1340 (- 7)
CAPESIZE INDEX: 1863 (- 25)
PANAMAX INDEX: 1294 (+ 1)
SUPRAMAX INDEX: 982 (+ 2)
HANDYSIZE INDEX: 560 (+ 4)
BCI TC AVG $/DAY 15454 (- 202) BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY 11646 (+ 11) BSI TC AVG $/DAY 12411 (+ 23) BHSI TC AVG $/DAY 10085 (+ 71)
TIMECHARTER
‘Corona Victory’ 2016 88909 dwt dely Kaohsiung 22 May trip via EC Australia redel S China $12,500 –
Tongli
‘Electra’ 2013 87146 dwt dely Qinzhou 20/23 May trip via East Kalimantan redel India $9,250 – Oldendorff
‘Great Ocean’ 2013 82178 dwt dely Dongjiakou 18/19 May trip via EC Australia redel S China $10,000 – AMC
‘BBG Hechi’ 2022 82037 dwt dely Nagoya 20 May trip via EC Australia redel S China $13,250 – Tongli
‘Bahri Grain’ 2014 81855 dwt dely retro Gangavaram 18 May coastal trip redel EC india $12,600 – Jaldhi
‘Predator’ 2019 81754 dwt dely Fangcheng 21 May trip via Newcastle redel S China $12,900 – BG Shipping
‘Yangze 12’ 2019 81664 dwt dely retro Rizhao 11 May trip via WC Australia redel China $10,500 – cnr
‘Lyric Sun’ 2011 81276 dwt dely Kunsan 20 May trip via NoPac redel Philippines $9,750 – Olam Intl
‘Darya Sita’ 2019 61152 dwt dely Chittagong prompt trip via Australia redel Japan intention grains $12,000 –
Oldendorff
‘Amber Lagoon’ 2015 39202 dwt dely Canakkale prompt trip redel US Gulf $8,000 – TAF
‘ZBB Serenity’ 2010 37302 dwt dely Istanbul prompt trip redel Georgetown intention bagged cement $6,350 first 40 days $10,250 thereafter – Borusan –
VOYAGES ORE
‘TBN’ 170000/10 Dampier/Qingdao 5/7 Jun $7.55 fio 90000shinc/30000shinc – Rio Tinto
BALTIC FORWARD ASSESSMENTS – TUESDAY 20 MAY 2025
BFA CAPESIZE
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| May | 15,646 | $/day | 271 | ↑ |
| Jun | 18,013 | $/day | 613 | ↑ |
| Jul | 18,308 | $/day | 462 | ↑ |
| Aug | 18,592 | $/day | 309 | ↑ |
| Sep | 19,358 | $/day | 325 | ↑ |
| Oct | 20,608 | $/day | 250 | ↑ |
| Q2 | 16,560 | $/day | 294 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 18,753 | $/day | 365 | ↑ |
| Q4 | 20,108 | $/day | 179 | ↑ |
| Q126 | 11,958 | $/day | 150 | ↑ |
| Q2 | 17,471 | $/day | 146 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 20,954 | $/day | 75 | ↑ |
| Q4 | 21,283 | $/day | 66 | ↑ |
| Cal26 | 17,917 | $/day | 109 | ↑ |
| Cal27 | 18,896 | $/day | 129 | ↑ |
| Cal28 | 18,746 | $/day | 33 | ↑ |
| Cal29 | 18,738 | $/day | 17 | ↑ |
| Cal30 | 18,625 | $/day | 8 | ↑ |
| Cal31 | 18,646 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal32 | 18,654 | $/day | 0 | → |
BFA PANAMAX 82
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| May25 | 11,703 | $/day | -33 | ↓ |
| Jun | 11,324 | $/day | -137 | ↓ |
| Jul | 11,374 | $/day | -125 | ↓ |
| Aug | 11,511 | $/day | -129 | ↓ |
| Sep | 11,907 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Oct | 11,878 | $/day | -8 | ↓ |
| Q2 | 11,659 | $/day | -57 | ↓ |
| Q3 | 11,597 | $/day | -85 | ↓ |
| Q425 | 11,519 | $/day | -42 | ↓ |
| Q126 | 9,953 | $/day | -41 | ↓ |
| Q2 | 11,915 | $/day | -38 | ↓ |
| Q3 | 11,732 | $/day | -42 | ↓ |
| Q4 | 11,257 | $/day | -17 | ↓ |
| Cal26 | 11,214 | $/day | -35 | ↓ |
| Cal27 | 11,519 | $/day | -46 | ↓ |
| Cal28 | 11,907 | $/day | -17 | ↓ |
| Cal29 | 12,411 | $/day | -17 | ↓ |
| Cal30 | 12,786 | $/day | -8 | ↓ |
| Cal31 | 12,932 | $/day | -12 | ↓ |
| Cal32 | 12,940 | $/day | -4 | ↓ |
BFA SUPRAMAX
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| May25 | 10,288 | $/day | -4 | ↓ |
| Jun25 | 10,450 | $/day | 67 | ↑ |
| Jul | 10,592 | $/day | 75 | ↑ |
| Aug | 10,729 | $/day | 54 | ↑ |
| Sep | 10,892 | $/day | 92 | ↑ |
| Oct | 10,633 | $/day | 41 | ↑ |
| Q2 | 10,277 | $/day | 21 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 10,738 | $/day | 74 | ↑ |
| Q4 | 10,600 | $/day | 33 | ↑ |
| Q126 | 8,933 | $/day | -9 | ↓ |
| Q2 | 10,867 | $/day | 50 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 10,783 | $/day | 33 | ↑ |
| Q4 | 10,375 | $/day | 42 | ↑ |
| Cal26 | 10,240 | $/day | 29 | ↑ |
| Cal27 | 10,675 | $/day | 67 | ↑ |
| Cal28 | 10,896 | $/day | 25 | ↑ |
| Cal29 | 11,050 | $/day | -17 | ↓ |
| Cal30 | 11,675 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal31 | 11,742 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal32 | 11,575 | $/day | 0 | → |
BFA HANDYSIZE
PERIOD VALUE CHANGE
| May25 | 10,100 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Jun | 10,363 | $/day | 25 | ↑ |
| Jul | 10,313 | $/day | -87 | ↓ |
| Aug | 10,675 | $/day | 25 | ↑ |
| Sep | 10,700 | $/day | 12 | ↑ |
| Oct | 10,563 | $/day | 38 | ↑ |
| Q2 | 10,326 | $/day | 9 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 10,563 | $/day | -16 | ↓ |
| Q425 | 10,419 | $/day | 38 | ↑ |
| Q126 | 8,750 | $/day | 50 | ↑ |
| Q2 | 10,688 | $/day | 13 | ↑ |
| Q3 | 10,600 | $/day | 25 | ↑ |
| Q4 | 10,263 | $/day | 38 | ↑ |
| Cal26 | 10,075 | $/day | 31 | ↑ |
| Cal27 | 10,188 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal28 | 10,350 | $/day | -13 | ↓ |
| Cal29 | 10,900 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal30 | 11,163 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal31 | 11,213 | $/day | 0 | → |
| Cal32 | 11,169 | $/day | 0 | → |
Baltic Exchange Index – 20 MAY 2025 Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
Route Description Value Change
===== =========================================
C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamb TA RV 19,864 – 193
C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Jpn 40,838 – 687
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan TP RV 17,864 + 391
C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil R/V 17,530 – 550
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 2,694 – 19
================================================
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 19,056 – 118
Baltic Exchange Index – 20 MAY 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1863 (- 25)
Route Description Value($) Change
| ====== =================================== | === | ||
| C2 | 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam | 8.020 – 0.051 | |
| C3 | 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao | 18.270 – 0.400 | |
| C5 | 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao | 7.885 + 0.180 | |
| C7 | 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam | 11.027 – 0.044 | |
C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV 16,350 – 243
C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan 37,088 – 725
C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 14,395 + 522
C14 180000mt China-Brazil RV 13,206 – 738
C16 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero -1.356 + 32
C17 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao 13.961 – 0.061
========================================== ====
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 15,454 – 202
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 20 MAY 2025 Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1,294 (+ 1)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= =======
P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 10,573 – 195
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 17,213 + 30
P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 10,815 + 210
P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,506 + 6
P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 12,423 + 10
====== ========================================
Weighted Timecharter Average 11,646 + 11
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average.
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================
P5_82 S. China Indo RV 9,825 + 92
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 45,450 – 0.029
P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 33.507 – 0.093
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 20 MAY 2025 Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 982 (+ 2)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or B.Sea to China-S.Kor
| 11,658 + 16 | ||||
| S1C_63 | USGulf trip China-South Japan | 18,043 + 450 | ||
| BS2_63 | N.China one Australian or Pacific RV 10,656 + 6 | |||
| BS3_63 | North China trip to West Africa 11,400 – 100 | |||
| S4A_63 | US Gulf trip to Skaw-Pass 17,807 + 464 | |||
| S4B_63 | Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 8,036 + 22 | |||
| BS5_63 | West Africa trip via ECSA to N.China 14,650 – 121 | |||
| BS8_63 | South China trip via Indo to EC.India 13,268 – 125 | |||
| BS9_63 | W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Pass | 13,579 + | 111 | |
| S10_63 | S.China trip via Indonesia to S.China | 10,031 – | 57 | |
| S15_63 | Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to F.East | 13,975 – | 71 | |
| ====== | ========================================= | |||
| S11TC | Weighted TC Average 12,411 + 23 | |||
| S10TC | Supramax(58) TC Average 10,377 + 23 | |||
Baltic Exchange Index – 20 MAY 2025 Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 560 (+ 4)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================
HS1_38 Skaw-Pass trip Recalada – R.D. Janeiro 5,929 – 14
HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston-Galveston 8,514 + 43
HS3_38 R.de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw- Pass 15,600 + 183
HS4_38 USG trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Pass 9,189 + 182
HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 10,500 + 87
HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor- Japan 10,381 +18
HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to S.E. Asia 10,050 + 12
====== ========================================
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 10,085 + 71
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd., 2025
Marex Media