India is the largest importer of DAP globally, pulling in an average of 5.65mn t/yr over the past five years. During the past year, poor import economics and a competitive import market have led to the substantial erosion of DAP inventories, which currently sit well below historically comfortable levels. This has introduced significant DAP pricing risk. In the March issue of the Monthly Phosphate Outlook, a new price forecast was launched — India DAP cfr. This forecast provides a more nuanced outlook of regional DAP price movements and presents a more comprehensive view of price risks and uncertainties to aid decision making process. Given the significance of South Asia’s, and specifically India’s, DAP import requirements and its subsidy regime, the market has an outsized impact on global DAP prices. A combination of affordability hurdles and shifting trade flows has resulted in a meaningful draw down on Indian stocks. At prevailing DAP prices and under the current subsidy regime, importing DAP is loss-making. This has been a sustained condition, and the extent of losses is tracked over the course of 2024. In the Processed Phosphates Analytics service, a look at this in further detail and outlined that at no point last year were monthly returns positive. The natural result has been a heavily reduced import stream in 2024, which totalled 4.65mn t of DAP, reflecting a 40pc decline compared with 2023.
Although there are other factors, such as decreased trade with China and healthy demand in competing markets, especially with Ethiopia’s shift to DAP also playing a significant role, the main hurdle remains that import losses have sidelined the private sector, forcing buyers to rely on a smaller pool of government- backed companies that could absorb the losses and at least slow down the rate of stock erosion. Under these conditions, there are more variables to DAP prices introduced and there is a greater probability of prices being impacted by non-seasonal characteristics in the short term. It is prudent to introduce a DAP cfr India forecast to address its impact on global DAP prices. In the chart below, present is India DAP cfr price forecast. The overall price narrative is one of price stability as low Indian DAP stocks will support healthy out-of-season buying, limiting drops during softening periods, while Indian affordability hurdles will limit price gains during peak demand periods.
Delivered Indian DAP prices have edged up slightly to $636- 639/t in March so far, reflecting a narrowing window to secure supply ahead of the Kharif season. And over the next month, forecast DAP cfr India firming to $645-655/t, which represents the price ceiling for the coming kharif season.
Indian DAP stocks remain well below comfortable levels, and we do not expect that buyers can rely on waiting for returning Chinese export volumes in the second half of April to execute more meaningful buying. This sets the foundation for further modest firming, during a tight global DAP market and healthy demand from South Asia, the US, Europe and late tenders from Ethiopia. But the price gains will be relatively short-lived and in May, one can anticipate demand from markets west of Suez will rapidly pull back and this, combined with gradually rising Chinese export availability, will begin to weigh on prices.
There will be increased competition to service South Asia, with fewer alternative markets to supply, which will add downward price pressure. This will cause prices to soften but at a slow rate, at least until June.
- As the Mountains Bleed in Balochistan : The internal fight between Balochistan and Pakistan is to capture from Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan is rich in reserves of Gold,
Uranium and gems abound. For Pakistan the POK is rich in ruby and sapphire deposits and these areas have long demanded autonomy over resources. For Pakistan it is believed these sources will unlock “trillions of dollars” of mineral wealth so they do not have to go to China or the US for borrowings. This mineral wealth has deepened the divide between the centre and provinces.
· Is it “Being Cool” or “Getting Yippy” the norm in the
Tariff Wars unleashed?
- India eyes stitching FTA’s in the Tariff Pause. Topping India’s current trade agenda are Free Trade Agreements (FTA’s) with the E.U., U.K., N.Z., Australia, Peru and the Asean group of S.E. Asian Nations. India is hoping to finalize several of these agreements within the 90-day US Tariff window, expanding market access and boosting supply chain resilience, a golden opportunity for India. The 90 days tariff pause applies to all nations except China.
- Trump turns tariff war into high-stakes showdown with China. There is little sign so far, that Chinese leader Xi Jinping is ready to buckle. The tariff on Chinese goods jumps to 125%. The clash between the two leaders means higher costs for U.S. consumers and locks the two largest economies in an extraordinary conflict with no clear immediate signs of agreements between the two countries as China is more suspicious and believe that negotiations will help them in the end run. China is unlikely to change its strategy : stand firm, absorb the pressure and let Trump over-play his hand.
- Greek manager says arrested Hermes-controlled bulker will soon be released from arrest in Singapore by Kroll Trustee Services over $79.9mio mortgaee claim, which arose from miscommunication and misunderstandings, which have since been resolved. The Piraeus based managers of arrested 82,000tdw mv Alpha built 2011 Kamsarmax controlled by shipowner Ghassan Ghandour say the ship will soon be released from the Sheriff of Singapore’s shackles.
- Iran seizes third tanker in under 10 days in Oil smuggling clampdown. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards intercepted the un-named vessel in the Mid-East and 6 seafarers onboard were arrested. It was reported 100,000 litres of smuggled fuel were discovered on inspection. Two ships were arrested earlier on 1st April in organised smuggling and collectively carrying over 3 mio litres of smuggled diesel fuel.
· Sanctions-busting tankers still discharging crude at China’s Dongying oil terminal, says Kpler
Oil consultancy says at least four vessels have gone dark in the Bohai Sea before offloading their cargoes in April.
Four crude tankers believed in carrying sanctioned crude oil cargoes have reportedly discharged at Dongying Oil Termnal in China after switching their AIS transponders in the Bohai Sea. It is believed these vessels are likely to continue similar operations where existing sanctions mechanisms are proving insufficient.
· Will Russia seek multimillion-dollar compensation payout over major Kerch Strait oil spill?
Two tankers broke up in fierce storms in the Kerch Strait in December, polluting Russian and Ukrainian coastlines. Russia has yet to ask for help from a global compensation body to pay the victims of a major oil spill after two tankers broke up in the Kerch Strait. As a member of the 122 nation International Oil Pollution Compensation Funds (IOPC Funds), Russia is potentially eligible for more than $500 mio to pay salvage terms, businesses and individuals affected by the spill of thousands of barrels of oil.
· Chinese buyers snap up South Korean and Japanese – 3 VLCCs at firm prices as tanker deals accelerate in a busy week for large tankers.
- A price of $45 or $46 was reportedly paid for a 298,500tdw scrubber fitted MT Hansika built in Japan in 2006. Asia Pacific Shipping is reportedly linked to its only Chinese built VLCC.
· US sanctions ‘expansive fleet’ of Dubai shipowner for aiding Houthis and Iran
- Jugwinder Singh Brar is accused of using coastal tanker fleet to take Iranian cargoes that are later blended to conceal origin. The US Treasury Dept. has added a Dubai based shipowner and his 28 vessels to its sanctions list in a bid to take down facilitators of the trade in Iran Oil and a key Houthi financing network.
· Angelicoussis leads major Greek attack on
‘aggressive and unrealistic’ $100bn IMO carbon levy
Industry giants express ‘grave concern’ at proposals under debate in London that risk doubling fuel costs and favouring niche low-carbon projects
A group of the world’s biggest and most influential shipowners have expressed ‘grave concern’ at the direction of talks at the IMO in London this week aimed at driving the decarbonisation of shipping by 2050. Six of the largest Greek Owners, led by Angelicoussis Group, warned that current proposals may result in backing nice low-carbon fuel projects and the doubling of fuelling costs.
· Trump signs Make Shipbuilding Great Again executive order
US president Donald Trump has signed a well- telegraphed executive order aimed at resuscitating American shipyards while also limiting China’s dominant influence on the sector.
Acknowledging the US’s less than 1% global shipbuilding market share yesterday, Trump said: “Rectifying these issues requires a comprehensive approach that includes securing consistent, predictable, and durable federal funding, making United States-flagged and built vessels commercially competitive in international commerce, rebuilding America’s maritime manufacturing capabilities, and expanding and strengthening the recruitment, training, and retention of the relevant workforce.”
Trump has given multiple parts of government – including the secretaries of state, defence, commerce, labour, transport and homeland security – a timeline to deliver ways to strengthen American shipbuilding.
Trump officials yesterday skirted around the specifics of contentious plans to charge Chinese tonnage extra for calling at US ports, something that has roiled the international shipping community in recent months, with the exact methodology of the fees to be laid out later.
In addition, yesterday’s executive order directs the US Trade Representative to consider imposing tariffs on ship cranes and other cargo handling equipment if they are manufactured, assembled, or contain components of Chinese origin, or if they are created by companies controlled by Chinese citizens.
The Department of Homeland Security is also tasked with imposing port maintenance fees and preventing carriers from circumventing these fees by using ports in Mexico and Canada and then transporting them overland to the US.
The order calls for the creation of a Maritime Security Trust Fund to provide sustainable funding for initiatives that strengthen US maritime capabilities. This includes using funds from tariffs, fines, fees, or tax revenues.
Lobby group, the Shipbuilders Council of America (SCA), lauded yesterday’s announcement from the White House, noting: “A strong US shipyard industry is essential not only for our economic security but also for our homeland and national security.”
As with many industries, China has come to dominate shipbuilding this century, moving from a global market share of less than 10% of the global orderbook to a commanding two-thirds stranglehold by the end of last year. Putting the scale of how far behind American shipbuilding is to its Asian rival, China manufactured more
commercial vessels by tonnage in 2024 than US shipyards have built since the end of World War II.
- Global Times, a state-run Chinese newspaper, lambasted the American plans last month in an OpEd, arguing: “The chasm between American and Chinese shipbuilding is fundamentally a gap in industrial infrastructure. The forces of globalization swept away America’s steel mills, machine shops and skilled labour force, leaving behind rusting supply chains and a hollowed-out manufacturing
base. Shipbuilding, a quintessential heavy industry, requires a robust industrial foundation. When that foundation crumbles, shipbuilding inevitably follows.”
North Korean iron ore shipments spark sanctions
The government of South Korea has imposed sanctions on a non-flagged vessel the country seized for illegally transporting iron ore produced in North Korea.
Sanctions were also imposed on two Chinese nationals, Sun Zhengzhe and Sun Feng, who operated the ship and Russian company LLC Consul DV, which was the cosignee of the cargo. The unilateral sanctions will take effect within a week.
The vessel, Sunrise 1, currently under detention in South Korean territorial waters, has been ordered to leave the country. It has been detained by authorities for over nine months.
The ship is a stateless vessel operated by Hong Kong- based Xiangrui Shipping. Its name was changed from Gain Star in May last year, about a month before picking up 5,020 tonnes of ore from North Korea’s Chongjin Port. Name changes are a frequent tactic to evade sanctions.
A joint press release by the South Korean Foreign Ministry, the Ministry of Economy and Finance, the Financial Services Commission, and the Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries stated that an investigation found that the vessel was implicated in violating UN Security Council Resolution 2371, which prohibits the transfer of North Korean iron ore.
The South Korean government stated that the sanctions were used as a deterrent for committing similar illicit actions and as a way to disrupt North Korea’s “illicit financing and procurement networks”.
- The EU will delay counter-tariffs in response to US duties on the bloc’s steel and aluminium exports. The move comes after Trump announced a 90-day pause to his so- called “reciprocal” tariffs on nearly all EU exports. That rate will now be 10%.
- Ukraine Hope | Ukraine’s bid for EU accession won’t be dashed by any minerals deal with the US, Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal told us. A special
Ukrainian technical working group will soon be dispatched to Washington for talks.
- German Slowdown | The German economy won’t see meaningful growth this year, according to the
country’s leading research institutes. Along with the US president’s assault on free trade, Russia’s war in Ukraine presents an ongoing risks for Europe’s biggest economy.
- This week’s dollar pain is the euro’s gain. Donald Trump acknowledges tariffs may cause problems. And we try half-proof gin.
- Donald Trump acknowledged tariffs may cause “transition problems,” but expressed confidence in his plan. Market turmoil elevated Scott Bessent to Wall Street’s man of the hour as he’s set to negotiate trade deals.
- The dollar is under intense pressure as money floods to safe havens and takes gold to a record.
· Oil prices set to drop for a second week as US-China
trade war to cut demand
- Oil prices fell on Friday and were set to drop for a second week on concerns prolonged trade war between the United States and China, the world’s largest economies, will crush crude consumption as their dispute curtails economic growth.
- Brent futures fell 31 cents, 0.5%, to $63.02 a barrel by 0153 GMT, while U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 36 cents, or 0.6%, to $59.71. Both benchmarks settled over $2 lower on Thursday.
· Trade Wars Are Easy to Lose
Beijing Has Escalation Dominance in the U.S.-China Tariff Fight
- When a country (USA) is losing many billions of dollars on trade with virtually every country it does business with,”
U.S. President Donald Trump famously tweeted in 2018, “trade wars are good, and easy to win.” This week, when the Trump administration imposed tariffs of more than 100 percent on U.S. imports from China, setting off a new and even more dangerous trade war, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a similar justification: “I think it was a big mistake, this Chinese escalation, because they’re playing with a pair of twos. What do we lose by the Chinese raising tariffs on us? We export one-fifth to them
of what they export to us, so that is a losing hand for them.”
- In short, the Trump administration believes it has what game theorists call escalation dominance over China and any other economy with which it has a bilateral trade deficit. Escalation dominance, in the words of a report by the RAND Corporation, means that “a combatant has the ability to escalate a conflict in ways that will be disadvantageous or costly to the adversary while the adversary cannot do the same in return.” If the administration’s logic is correct, then China, Canada, and any other country that retaliates against U.S. tariffs is indeed playing a losing hand.
- But this logic is wrong: it is China that has escalation dominance in this trade war. The United States gets vital goods from China that cannot be replaced any time soon or made at home at anything less than prohibitive cost. Reducing such dependence on China may be a reason for action, but fighting the current war before doing so is a recipe for almost certain defeat, at enormous cost. Or to put it in Bessent’s terms: Washington, not Beijing, is betting all in on a losing hand.
· Tariffs on China set to dramatically alter US trade
- Supply chain planners are busy booking shipments from non-Chinese destinations into the US today following last night’s tariff surrender by Donald Trump, the American president. Trump announced a 90-day pause for countries hit by higher US tariffs amid financial turmoil and a weakening dollar in the week since he had first made his tariff announcements.
· Tariff relief fuels front-loading but China slowdown clouds peak season
- Non-China tariff reprieve could trigger cargo rush to beat July deadline
- Massive cancellation and suspension of Chinese orders will weigh on transpacific vessel utilisation
- Duration of the US-China standoff could depend on factors such as when US inventories drained of Chinese goods compel a resolution
· Hopes rise that draconian US port fee plan will be watered down
- Trump’s executive order on shipbuilding excluded language on port fees that was included in the draft version
- USTR will release its port fee ruling on April 17, followed by implementation phase with hearing on specifics in mid-May. US would begin charging fees by mid- November
- Lobbying by the shipping industry, importers and exporters appears to have convinced administration that unintended consequences of original plan would be too severe
· Container Shipping
- The tonnage provider share of the global containership fleet is continuing to fall as container line operators snap up more second-hand boxships from non- operating owners.
- According to Alphaliner, some 3.7m teu of tonnage provider-controlled capacity, provided by 850 ships, were sold to carriers since August 2020.
- This was offset by 1.2m teu of newbuilding capacity delivered to non-operating owners between August 2020 and March 2025.
- A further 221,000 teu of capacity was purchased by tonnage providers from end users in the same period. Combined, this provided a net overall loss of the chartered boxship fleet of 400 vessels of a combined
2.3m teu.
- Until 2021, chartered containerships typically made up around 50% of global containership fleet capacity. However, this had dropped to 40% by mid-2024.
- It was noted that the vessel fleet strategies of two container line operators in particular were responsible for the decline in the charter fleet.
- “While several carriers embarked on second-hand tonnage acquisitions during the post-covid cargo boom Mediterranean Shipping Co, and to a lesser extent CMA CGM, were by far the most active buyers with ambitious purchase programmes largely contributing to the decline of the non-operating owned fleet,” it said.
· Containerships sold by tonnage providers to end users
Baltic Shipping Indices :
Baltic Exchange Index – 10 APRIL 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82500mt Index 10 APRIL 2025
Baltic Exchange Panamax Index 1189 (- 14)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ======== P1A_82 Skaw-Gib T/A RV 7,932 – 118
P2A_82 Skaw-Gib trip HK-SKorea incl Taiwan 15,492 – 73 P3A_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan, Pacific/RV 11,664 – 205 P4_82 HK-SKorea incl Taiwan to Skaw-Gib 8,498 + 88 P6_82 Dely Spore Atlantic RV 11,358 – 132
====== ================================= =======
Weighted Timecharter Average 10,705 – 119
The following routes do not contribute to the BPI or Weighted TC Average. Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ================================= ===== P5_82 S. China Indo RV 11,253 – 364
P7 66000mt Mississippi Rvr to Qingdao 44,014 – 0.057 P8 66000mt Santos to Qingdao 32.692 + 0.034
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index – 10 APRIL 2025
Baltic Exchange Supramax Index 941 (- 7)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ========================================= ===
S1B_63 Cnkle trip via Med or Blsea to China-S.Korea 12,017 – 108 S1C_63 US Gulf trip to China-South Japan 15,471 – 333 BS2_63 North China one Australian or Pacific RV 11,363 – 231 BS3_63 North China trip to West Africa 11,308 – 92 S4A_63 US Gulf trip to Skaw-Passero 15,054 – 267 S4B_63 Skaw-Passero trip to US Gulf 9,436 – 28 BS5_63 West Africa trip via ECSA to North China 13,568 – 118 BS8_63 South China trip via Indo to EC.India 13,707 + 78 BS9_63 W.Africa trip via ECSA to Skaw-Passero 10,468 – 89 S10_63 S.China trip via Indonesia to South China 10,741 + 141 S15_63 Indian Ocean trip via S.Africa to Far East 11,325 – 54
====== ========================================= ===
S11TC Weighted Timecharter Average 11,889 – 89 S10TC Supramax(58) Timecharter Average 9,855 – 89
Baltic Exchange Index – 10 APRIL 2025
Baltic Exchange Handysize Index 586 (- 8)
Route Description Value ($) Change
====== ======================================== =====
HS1_38 Skaw-Passero trip Recalada – Rio de Janeiro 6,821 – 79 HS2_38 Skaw-Passero trip Boston – Galveston 9,486 – 7 HS3_38 Rio de Janeiro-Recalada trip Skaw – Passero 14,006 – 66 HS4_38 USGulf trip via USG or NCSA to Skaw-Passero 10,786 + 7 HS5_38 SE Asia trip to Spore – Japan 10,763 – 225 HS6_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to N.China-S.Kor-Jp 10,919 – 287 HS7_38 N.China-S.Kor-Jpn trip to SE Asia 10,681 – 263
====== ======================================== ========
7TC Weighted Timecharter Average 10,542 – 147
Baltic Exchange Index – 10 APRIL 2025
Baltic Exchange Capesize Index 1781 (+ 49)
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =================================== =====
| C2 | 160000mt Tubarao to Rotterdam | 8.479 + 0.058 | ||
| C3 | 160-170000mt Tubarao to Qingdao | 18.915 + 0.205 | ||
| C5 | 160-170000mt W Australia to Qingdao | 7.590 + 0.325 | ||
| C7 | 150-160000mt Bolivar to Rotterdam | 9.836 – 0.043 | ||
| C8_14 180000mt Gibraltar-Hamburg T/A RV | 12,614 – | 207 | ||
| C9_14 180000mt Conti/Med Trip China/Japan | 35,375 – | 94 | ||
| C10_14 180000mt China/Japan T/P RV 14,209 + 1695 | ||||
| C14 | 180000mt China-Brazil RV | 14,930 + 190 | ||
| C16 | 180000mt N.China to Skaw-Passero | -738 – | 57 | |
| C17 | 170000mt Saldanha Bay to Qingdao | 14.722 + | 0.111 | |
========================================== =====
5TC Weighted Timecharter Average 14,768 + 401
Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index
Route Description Value Change
===== ========================================== ====
C8_182 182000mt Gib/Hamburg transatlantic RV 15,979 – 178 C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China-Japan 39,250 – 125 C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 17,201 + 1719 C14_182 182000mt China-Brazil round voyage 18,561 + 251 C16_182 182000mt Backhaul 2,988 – 93
=================================================== ===
C5TC 182 Weighted Timecharter Average 18,337 + 610
Baltic Exchange Panamax 82 Asia Index – 11 April 2025
Route Description Size (MT) Value($) Change
===== ====================== ========
P5_82 S.China one Indo RV 11,178 -75
Baltic Exchange Supramax Asia Index – 11 April 2025
Route Description Value($) Change
====== =============================== =======
S2_63 N.China one Austr or Pac RV 11,319 -44 S8_63 S.China via Indonesia/Ec India 13,800 +93 S10_63 S.China via Indo/S.China 10,838 +97
====== =============================== =======
S3TC Weighted Time Charter Average 11,899 +37
(c) Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd 2025
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