Global shipping executives gathered this week in California for a major annual conference, expecting to discuss market trends and supply chain challenges.

Instead they found themselves in crisis mode.

On Tuesday, Pres. Trump upended decades of mostly free trade with the two biggest US trading partners, slapping 25% tariffs on goods from Mexico and Canada. The White House also layered another 10% duty on China on top of an identical hike a month earlier.

The move sent shock waves through global trade, igniting fears of recession, skyrocketing consumer prices and logistical chaos. Veteran shippers at the Conference said they didn’t expect The Pres of U.S. will follow through so fully.

“It’s like an earthquake,” said Cindy Allen, chief executive officer of consultant Trade Force Multiplier (TFM), who spoke on a conference panel about navigating Trump’s second term. “You do your best to prepare, but then when it comes it’s an 8.0 on the Richter scale.

Deepening the uncertainty, Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick said late Tuesday that Trump was weighing a compromise with the country’s North American neighbours. A deal could be announced as soon as Wednesday, in an interview with Fox Business.

The tariffs will probably land “somewhere in the middle,” with Trump “moving with the Canadians and Mexicans, but not all the way”.

At the twin ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach — the largest US gateway for Chinese imports — cargo volumes have ballooned in recent months, a sign that importers were moving in shipments ahead of potential trade restrictions.

The pattern is familiar: During Trump’s first term, port traffic spiked as businesses raced to stockpile goods, only to drop once tariffs on Chinese imports started taking effect. Half a continent away, freight rates between the US and Canada have jumped since Trump’s latest election in November, said Dean Croke, an analyst at DAT Freight and Analytics.

“Clearly, shippers have been positioning as much inventory as they can,” he said. “There’s been a real surge in cross-border rate, volume and rate volatility between the two countries and some of the highest rates we’ve seen in a couple of years.”

Jose “JD” Gonzalez, a customs broker in Laredo, Texas, tried for weeks to sound a similar alarm.

But most brushed off his concerns, confident the duties wouldn’t take effect — especially after a previous delay on tariffs for Canada and Mexico just a month earlier.

Then the tariffs kicked in, and the phone hasn’t stopped ringing. One call after another, Gonzalez walked clients through the biggest change in the rules governing trade at the US-Mexican border in his more than 30 years in the business.

What had been a relatively tariff-free world for many of the companies he serves suddenly became one in which they had to scramble to come up with the funds to pay 25% of the value of imports. For many, that meant rushing to do the basics and setting up an account with the US Customs and Border Protection to pay the new import taxes.

“It’s just culture shock,” said Gonzalez, who also serves as president of the national industry association for customs brokers. “Everybody was kind of waiting to see what was going to happen.”

Other companies all across the region are also rushing to adapt in industries from trucking to food — and even the rarefied world of private jets.

At Grupo Fletes Mexico, a trucking company in the border city of Ciudad Juarez, customers are asking for discounts to offset higher costs from the tariffs, said CEO Miguel Gomez. But with slim margins, he can’t afford to say yes and fears layoffs among the company’s 2,600 employees may be necessary if the tariffs remain in place for long.

“We don’t really have many options to reduce costs,” he said. “There is a lot of uncertainty and instability.”

In Canada, Quebec’s UgoWork, which makes batteries for forklifts, is planning to split the 25% rate with its US customers.

“But at some point, this is not sustainable,” said CEO Philippe Beauchamp. He said he’s considering opening a plant in the US, where half of UgoWork’s customers are.

At Toronto-based Bondi Produce, which distributes fresh fruits and vegetables, vice president of finance Paul Sandhu said the company can’t absorb a cost increase of 25% and will have to pass at least some of it on to customers. Citrus fruits, tomatoes, peaches and berries are among the affected goods.

Bondi also processes produce, importing fruit from the US or Mexico and then selling it to the northeastern US.

“I laugh because it’s just mind boggling to think of, but yes, that’s going to be a two-way impact for the end consumer,” Sandhu said.

In the corporate jet business, some would-be US buyers are hitting the pause button, said Greg Raiff, the Miami-based CEO of Elevate Aviation Group, which offers charter flights and advises clients on aircraft purchases.

Spare parts are a huge consideration and that’s prompted potential buyers of jets made by Bombardier Inc. to back off and try to assess their total cost of ownership. For example, if someone needed $500,000 in parts from the Quebec-based plane maker, the new tariffs would add another $125,000.

“If you buy an airplane from a Canadian manufacturer, you’re marrying yourself to whatever those Canadian import duties are,” Raiff said.

While he was still trying to understand the tariffs’ scope Tuesday morning, he predicted “that’s going to hit business aviation considerably.”

At the TPM25 conference, news of Lutnick’s comments on a possible compromise with Mexico and Canada broke during a session with trade and customs expert Pete Mento. After fielding a barrage of questions from retailers and importers, he ended with some words of advice.

“Panic is very expensive, right? It’s probably more expensive than patience,” said Mento, who is customs and trade director at logistics provider DSV. “The best thing you can do for you, for your customers, for your executives, is to preach calm, not overreacting, no knee-jerk reactions.”

BLACKROCK SEIZES PANAMA CANAL PORTS IN $19 BILLION MEGA DEAL

BlackRock, the world’s top money manager, is acquiring two key Panama Canal ports – Balboa and Cristobal – in a $19 billion deal with Hong Kong’s CK Hutchison. The acquisition secures control over 40% of Canal’s container traffic.

Trump has long claimed China “runs” the Canal and vowed to ‘take it back’.

Now, BlackRock’s move effectively does it for him. With two-thirds of the canal’s cargo linked to the U.S., this deal re-shapes control over a critical global trade route.

• “End of an Era” – What next for Golden Ocean after Saverys takes control from Fredriksen ? John Fredriksen in bulker retreat as CMB.Tech spends $1.2 bn for his entire stake in Golden Ocean.
• EU needs help to police shadow tanker fleet shipping Putin’s oil.
• Greek owner Transmed linked to profitable tanker asset plays with former Teekay Suezmaxes.
• BW Group snaps $10 mio of Hafnia shares after big market sell-off.
• Transpacific container rates crash after Trump tariffs and Beijing’s retaliation.
• Liner operators scramble to trip capacity ahead of new Trump tariffs.
• US-China tit-for-tat tariffs to boost Brazilian Soy shipments
• BlackRock and MSC forge $22.8 bio CK Hutchison deal that includes ports under Trump pressure
• Questions trump answers for ship operators as US plots Chinese port fee hike
• Trump launches White House office to revive America’s shipbuilding industry. President Donald Trump announced the creation of a new White House office of shipbuilding and tax incentives for domestic shipbuilders during his joint address to Congress.
• “I am announcing tonight that we will create a new office of shipbuilding in the White House and offer special tax incentives to bring this industry home to America where it belongs,” Trump said in his address late on Tuesday.
• ​The announcement comes as the Trump Administration is reportedly preparing an executive order aiming to revitalize America’s struggling maritime sector, which currently builds fewer than five ships annually compared to China’s 1,700.
• A draft of the order, which was first reportedby The Wall Street Journal on Tuesday, is set to include measures such as raising revenue from Chinese ships and tax credits and grants for shipyards.
• The initiative follows recent Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) measures targeting China’s maritime dominance, prompted by a March 2024 petition from major U.S. labour unions. The USTR investigation, conducted by the former Biden Administration, found China’s practices “unreasonable and [burdensome to] U.S. commerce,” revealing that China’s dominance strategy relies on state subsidies,
• preferential sourcing policies, and unfair labour practices, which have severely impacted U.S. maritime capabilities and American jobs.
• China’s market share in global shipbuilding has skyrocketed from less than 5% in 1999 to over 50% in 2023, while also controlling 95% of shipping container production and 86% of the world’s intermodal chassis supply. Meanwhile, the U.S. has fallen from its position as global leader in 1975, when it built over 70 ships annually, to its current 19th- place ranking.
• Trump warns Americans of Economic discomfort as Trade War Erupts
• Trump Weighs Tariff Deal with Canada, Mexico
• Trump calls for end to $52 billion Chips Act subsidy program
• Vietnam Trade Minister to meet US Trade Representative next week
• China Target record deficit to Buffer economy against Tariffs
• China’s Congress pledges to fix Ove- production of Steel and Fuel
• China to mandate Steel output Cuts to ease the Glut and restore profits
• Xi Jinping’s Growth goal will need big stimulus if Trade War escalates
• US Copper prices surge as Trump signals 25% Tariff on imports.
• Unexpected Open production hikes expected to boost tanker fortunes
• EU Court criticises lax enforcement as ships slip through pollution net
• U.S. reinstates terror designation on Houthis over Ship attacks
• London Tribunal dismisses $832 mio in newbuilding claims against Yangzijiang Shipbuilding
• Adnoc and OMV forge $60 bio powerhouse with merger of Chemicals business and takeover of Canadian producer
• A Russian warship has been seen in the English Channel with its crew manning weapons as it escorted an arms shipment thought to be for use in the Ukraine war. The Baltic Leader is a large cargo ship that was previously sanctioned by the US in 2022 for transporting weapons for Russia. It was seen being escorted by a Boikiy – a Russian boat that can carry up to 99 people at a time in the early hours of Monday this week.
• China’s corn imports could fall below 7mn tons in the 2024-25 season, according to Chinese market participants, on a combination of the country’s record corn output this marketing year and its existing restrictions on corn delivered to bonded areas that curb processors’ import demand.

Average Sailing Speeds as on 3^rd March, 2025

• Wan Hai seeks engine switch as LNG- fuelled orders dominate orderbook
• The resurgence in LNG dual-fuel ship orders over methanol has been a strong theme in newbuild contracting over the past year.
• In no sector has this been more prominent than in container shipping where methanol and LNG have swapped positions over the past 14 months.
• In the first two months of 2025, a total of 46 containerships have been firmly ordered, not including options. All the orders for ships with

a capacity of over 5,000 teu were for newbuildings with LNG-powered dual-fuel engines, according to data from Alphaliner.

• “LNG propulsion has re-asserted itself as carriers’ principal short-to-medium term choice on the path to decarbonisation,” analysts at Alphaliner reported earlier.
• Alphaliner is reporting that the owner behind one of the last big orders for methanol-fuelled boxships is now having a rethink. Taiwan’s Wan Hai Lines is reportedly renegotiating with yards in South Korea over contracts it placed last October for eight 16,000 teu ships, wishing to switch from methanol to LNG engines.
• According to the latest figures from DNV’s Alternative Fuels Insight (AFI) platform, 34 new orders for alternative-fuelled vessels were placed last month.
• This was almost entirely accounted for by LNG-fuelled vessels, with all orders placed for container vessels. The sole non-LNG order was for an ammonia-fuelled general cargo vessel.

• Jason Stefanatos, global decarbonization director at DNV Maritime, commented: “LNG remains the headline story, with a clear continuation of the trend towards these vessels evident since mid-2024. Again, this is being driven by the container segment, highlighting the importance of the voluntary market in driving maritime decarbonization.”
• Oman’s Asyad Shipping, a subsidiary of state- controlled logistics giant Asyad Group, has raised $333m through an initial public offering on the Muscat Stock Exchange. The IPO involved more than 1bn shares, of which 75% were allocated to institutional investors. The anchor investors, Mars Development and Investment, an Omani state-owned entity, and Falcon Investments, a subsidiary …
• Singapore-based OSV owner Britoil Offshore Services has scored a long-term charter for the platform support vessel BOS Prelude in the North Sea. The 2010-built unit acquired from Vroon in 2023 has been fixed to SeaRenergy for seven years. The contract includes three one-year options that could lead to a decade-long employment for the vessel.

Baltic Exchange Market Report 04 March 2025

Baltic	Dry	Index:	1262	(-14)
Baltic	Capesize	Index:	1969	(-11)
Baltic	Panamax	Index:	1024	(-21)
Baltic	Supramax	Index:	876	(-11)

Baltic Handysize Index: 548 (1)

CAPESIZE

After a recent bullish run, the capsize market experienced a slight correction today. The BCI 5TC dropped by $96, settling at $16,328. In the Pacific, two miners were active, but the volume of alternative cargo among operators has decreased slightly. Fixtures on C5 started at $10.60 and gradually declined to $10.40 by the end of the day, with the C5 index slipping by 0.08 to $10.455. In the Atlantic, the mood also shifted. Conditions from South Brazil and West Africa to China became more positional, with early positions being slightly discounted. Overall, the tone turned slightly bearish as the C3 index dipped by 0.113 to

$19.955. On the period front, the BH Libra (181,415 2012) is reported to have fixed delivery ex dry dock for April dates for two years, though further details have not yet emerged.

Atlantic

NYK is reported to have fixed the Pan Gold (175,088 2011) for 170,000/10 Tubarao to Qingdao 27/31 March in the high $19s.

Asia

Rio Tinto fixed 2xTBNs for 170,000/10 Dampier to Qingdao 19/21 March at $10.60 and $10.40. FMG is reported to have fixed a TBN for 160,000/10 Port Hedland to Qingdao 18/20 March at $10.60, lacking further details.

PANAMAX

Little sign of any positive news for the sector as the lull continued in most areas. Again, the Atlantic saw minimal demand as the tonnage imbalance continued to outweigh the fresh enquiry, some felt that there remained a build-up of tonnage for second half March from EC South America. A similar story to yesterday in Asia as rates continued to slide with little by the way of fresh Australian and NoPac business. As a result, BPI tiimecharter average fell by $186 to finish the day at $9,218.

Atlantic

The Treasure Star (82,206 2010) delivery aps EC South America 20 March fixed for a trip redelivery Singapore-Japan at $14,250 + $425,000 others heard the rate of $14,100 + $410,000 rumoured to Drydel.

Asia

The RB Eden (81,067 2016) Kwangyang 3 March was heard placed on subjects for a NoPac round trip, whilst the XH Sunshine (82,600 2025) CJK 10 March was placed on subjects for a NoPac round trip with grains. The Ting May (85,001 2019) Oita 9/10 March was placed on subjects for a trip via Weipa redelivery China at $14,000 with Rio Tinto, whilst the Shun Tong (81,603 2019) Singapore prompt was rumoured placed on subjects for an Australia round trip but little else emerged.

SUPRAMAX

Another poor day for the sector as most routes lost ground. From the Atlantic, brokers again spoke of limited fresh enquiry from the US Gulf and the Continent-Mediterranean remained positional. Some felt that slightly stronger rates were being seen from the South Atlantic although no fixing actually surfaced. From Asia, again another of limited fresh enquiry and further downward pressure ensued. The IVS Prestwick (61,305 2019) Yantai 3/4 March was heard fixed for a trip redelivery Bangladesh with intention slag in the low $14,000s. Otherwise an ultramax was rumoured fixed basis delivery Philippines for a trip via New Caledonia to China intention nickel ore in the mid $14,000s. The Star Cleo (56,581 2013) was heard to have been placed on subjects for a trip delivery East Kalimantan via Indonesia redelivery Thailand at $8,750 with Panocean. The 11TC average closed down $149 at $11,069.

HANDYSIZE

A rather mixed day for the sector, whilst the Atlantic generally remained rather flat, although some did feel that the US Gulf may have reached a bottom. Brokers said that little had changed in fundamentals from the Continent-Mediterranean. Whilst downward pressure remained from the South Atlantic. By contrast positive sentiment was seen from the Asian arena as there was a slight tightening of prompt tonnage availability. The 7TC average  closed  up  slightly  by  $14  at  $9,860.

Atlantic

The Port Navigator (35,107 ‘2022) was to have been fixed basis delivery Recalada for a trip North Brazil in the mid $11,000’s and it was understood this    involved    some    waiting    time.

Asia

The Taurus (28,392 2011) CJK 28 February was heard to have been fixed recently for a trip via North China to EC India redelivery basis Penang with intention fertiliser in the $8,000s but no more details came to light.

Marex Media

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