Can Europe confront Vladimir Putin’s Russia on its own? An independent army, air force and nuclear bomb would come at a high price.
Within hours of his party winning national elections, Friedrich Merz, Germany’s presumptive next leader, dropped a bombshell. Donald Trump “does not care much about the fate of Europe”, he said. The priority was to “step by step…achieve independence from the USA”. This was not some distant aim. He was unsure, he said, whether NATO would still exist “in its current form” in June, when leaders are due to meet in the Netherlands, “or whether we will have to establish an independent European defence capability much more quickly”.
Ukraine – Russia War
After three years of war, Ukraine is facing intense pressure from U.S. President Donald Trump to reach a settlement with Russia. Trump has engaged directly with Russian President Vladimir
Putin while calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator. His administration has sidelined European allies while joining a handful of Russian partners in voting against a UN resolution condemning Putin’s aggression. And U.S. officials have pressured Ukraine into signing over critical mineral-resources.
And yet, despite this new geopolitical reality and despite month after month of gruelling fighting that has Russian forces taking territory by the day, Ukrainians themselves remain deeply resistant to accepting an end to the war that would sacrifice their country’s territory and sovereignty.
The Lost MH370 Flight
A ship that will hunt for missing Malaysia Airlines Flight MH370 has deployed to its Indian Ocean search zone, according to Malaysia’s transport minister and ship tracking data, raising hopes of solving one of aviation’s greatest mysteries.
In December, Malaysia agreed to resume the search for the Boeing 777 that was carrying 227 passengers and 12 crew when it vanished en route from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing on March 8, 2014.
Malaysia has not yet signed off on the contract to search the seabed for wreckage, however, casting uncertainty over whether a search has begun.
MH370’s last transmission was about 40 minutes after it took off from Kuala Lumpur for the Chinese capital. The pilots signed off as the plane entered Vietnamese air space over the Gulf of Thailand and soon after its transponder was turned off.
Military radar showed the plane left its flight path to fly back over northern Malaysia and then out into the Andaman Sea before turning south, when all contact was lost.
New e-Fuel Tender Puts Shipping Industry to the Test
The Zero Emission Maritime Buyers Alliance (ZEMBA), a coalition of freight buyers driving demand for zero-emission shipping, has launched its second tender focused on pioneering the commercial deployment of e-fuels in the container shipping industry, with bids due in spring 2025.
The ambitious initiative aims to aggregate approximately 86 billion tonne nautical miles of demand for e-fuel-powered shipping starting in 2027, equivalent to transporting 1.5 million twenty- foot containers across the Pacific Ocean from Shanghai to Los Angeles.
Trump Signals Postposing Mexico and Canada Tariffs to April 2
The March 4 deadline for the tariffs on Mexican and Canadian goods remained in effect “as of this moment,” pending Trump’s review of Mexican and Canadian actions to secure their borders and halt the flow of the opioid fentanyl and migrants into the U.S.
“I have to tell you that, you know, on April 2, I was going to do it on April 1,” Trump said. “But I’m a little bit superstitious, I made it April 2, the tariffs go on. Not all of them but a lot of them.”
Trump’s comments prompted jumps in the value of the Canadian dollar and Mexican peso versus the greenback.
US, Russia Mull Cooperation on Arctic Shipping and Exploration
US and Russian officials have identified the Arctic as a possible area for economic cooperation, according to people familiar with the situation, part of the broader detente President Donald Trump is pursuing with Moscow.
Discussions have included natural resources exploration and trade routes, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the discussions are private and at an early stage. Cooperation over energy exploration is also seen as a goal by the US.
East and Gulf Coast Ports Avoid Chaos as Dockworkers Seal Landmark Labor Deal
The International Longshoremen’s Association (ILA) members have overwhelmingly ratified a new six-year master contract with United States Maritime Alliance (USMX), securing unprecedented wage increases and automation protections for workers across Atlantic and Gulf Coast ports.
The agreement, effective through September 30, 2030, received nearly 99% approval from rank-and- file members.
Divers find ‘significant’ hull breaches in stranded MSC container ship
Vessel has ‘settled firmly’ on the seabed after grounding 11 days ago
An inspection of an MSC Mediterranean Shipping Co boxship that grounded off eastern Canada 11 days ago has discovered “significant breaches or holes” in its hull.
The Canadian Coast Guard said its crew continue to assess the condition of the 2,478-teu MSC Baltic III (built 2003) from the shore and from the air in Cedar Cove, Newfoundland.
Cosco defies US port fee threat with multimillion-dollar newbuilding haul
Chinese shipping giant has approached state- owned and private shipyards for the new vessels
China’s Cosco Shipping is embarking on a fresh multibillion-dollar newbuilding spree — just days after US President Donald Trump proposed trade levies aimed at breaking Beijing’s grip on global shipbuilding.
Private equity fund to grab control of historic owner Louis-Dreyfus Armateurs
Owner founded 170 years ago says it will invest €1bn in its future once the planned takeover is completed
Louis-Dreyfus Armateurs (LDA), a historic French owner with a history of 170 years, is set to pass under the wings of a private equity fund that promises to heavily invest in its future growth.
The company announced on Wednesday that it has started exclusive negotiations with Paris-based investor InfraVia for an 80% stake in the company. The remaining 20% will remain with the Louis- Dreyfus Family which is currently the full Owner of LDA.
Tankers pin hopes on Opec spring production hikes
Some still expect rising Opec+ oil production to boost the fortunes of crude tankers, but some observers question whether those increases will actually come.
2025 looks to be “healthy” for crude tankers, in part due to the scheduled unwinding of production cuts by Opec and its allies starting in the Spring season.
Overall, crude Tanker Supply / Demand fundamentals appear fairly well balanced for 2025.
Dark days: What happened to the Russian oil on sanctioned suezmax tanker?
Vessel loaded at Murmansk on 20 January and is now in ballast, with the whereabouts of the cargo unknown. The last month in the working life of a sanctioned tanker hauling Russian crude has shown how tough it can be for Western countries to keep track of such cargoes. The cargo was loaded on Meru 160,000tw built.
How Big Is Russia’s Appetite for Upheaval?
Despite Trump’s Embrace, There Are Limits to Moscow’s Disruptive Impulses
President Donald Trump’s embrace of Russia would seem to heighten a threat that has raised alarms in Western capitals for the past year: the alignment of a formidable set of adversaries, including China, Iran, North Korea, and Russia, in a Russian-led “axis of upheaval.” All four countries are revisionist, intent on overturning a global order that they see as stacked against them. The West has feared that, in addition to lending each other economic, military, and political support, these countries may stir conflict whose destabilizing effects the West would struggle to contain. As it breaks from its Western allies and engages Moscow in negotiations over the war in Ukraine, Washington has suggested that one of its goals is to drive wedges between Russia and its partners. That outcome is unrealistic. Russia expects to win in Ukraine sooner or later, with or without a U.S. deal. It will therefore see little reason to cut ties with valued partners just to please Trump—and will be especially reluctant to upset a reliable relationship with Beijing for the sake of one with Washington that may last only until the next U.S. election. If the Trump administration lifts U.S. pressure on Moscow anyway, Russia could end up having both stronger ties with fellow revisionist states and a previously unimaginable degree of tolerance from Washington for its disruptive foreign policies.
But even in a relatively permissive environment, Russia’s appetite for global upheaval has limits. New bursts of conflict will not necessarily work in its favour. Given its finite resources and its preoccupation with Ukraine, Moscow’s ability to shape outcomes to its advantage in other parts of the world is highly constrained. As violence has recently spread across the Middle East, for instance, Russia at first was optimistic that the hostilities would harm its adversaries, but that conflict ended up weakening Moscow’s position because it exposed the vulnerability of one Russian partner, Iran, and culminated in the downfall of another, the regime in Syria. Russia’s reliance on partners other than China, Iran, and North Korea has also restricted its troublemaking. Its need to keep stable relations with India and Saudi Arabia in particular has softened its aggressive impulses, and Moscow’s desire to avoid upsetting countries in the global South has compelled it to navigate multilateral diplomatic forums, such as BRICS and the United Nations, with some caution.
These constraints will be strongest while Russia continues to wage war in Ukraine, but they will persist in some form after a potential settlement, too. Where it can control the consequences of its meddling, Moscow will likely determine that the benefits outweigh the risks. But where its interference could escalate into a full- blown conflict that demands Russia’s military engagement, Moscow may exercise more restraint. In practice, this means that Russia will almost certainly step up its disinformation campaigns and acts of sabotage (such as cyberattacks and vandalism of infrastructure) in Europe, sensing in the United States’ apparent desire to retreat from the continent an opportunity to further erode NATO cohesion. But Russia’s aversion to military entanglement should inhibit it from causing upheaval on the Korean Peninsula, in the Middle East, and even in the African countries where it maintains a security presence. After facing some opposition to its revisionist agenda in multilateral forums, Moscow may also reassess its diplomatic strategy, based in part on how much havoc the United States itself will wreak in those institutions.
Russia is playing a long game, and it knows it needs to pick its battles, especially if the unexpected tailwind from the White House turns out to be temporary or tempestuous. If the countries still committed to countering Russian disruption are to do so effectively in this new, uncertain era, they, too, will need to assess carefully where and when to enter the fray—starting with the increasingly imperiled European front.
Where Does Ukraine Go From Here
After three years of war, Ukraine is facing intense pressure from Donald Trump to reach a settlement with Russia. Trump has engaged directly with Russian President Vladimir Putin while calling Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator. His administration has sidelined European allies while joining a handful of Russian partners in voting against a UN resolution condemning Putin’s aggression. And U.S. officials have pressured Ukraine into signing over critical mineral resources.
And yet, despite this new geopolitical reality and despite month after month of grueling fighting that has Russian forces taking territory by the day, Ukrainians themselves remain deeply resistant to accepting an end to the war that would sacrifice their country’s territory and sovereignty
What Iran Wants
The Roots of the Islamic Republic’s Conflict With the West
Since October 7, 2023, the long arm of Iran has seemingly been everywhere in the crises that have beset the Middle East. With its eye on Hezbollah, Iran’s heavily armed Shiite ally in Lebanon, Israel was wholly unprepared for the devastating ground assault launched from Gaza by Hamas, a Palestinian militant group that was also backed by the Islamic Republic. Nor had the West anticipated that the Houthis in Yemen, a supposedly ragtag militia that had received a large arsenal of missiles from Tehran, would be capable of bringing global shipping in the Red Sea to a near standstill.
The conflicts unleashed by these regional allies have not been particularly kind to the Iranian leadership. Among Iran’s serial humiliations have been the July assassination, in a Tehran government guesthouse, of Ismail Haniyeh, Hamas’s political leader—a stark demonstration of the extent to which Israeli intelligence had penetrated the Iranian security forces—as well as the damage done to Hezbollah and the elimination of most of its senior ranks, including its formidable leader Hassan Nasrallah.
Jack Ma appears as Xi Jinping seeks to adjust course
This week’s China Up Close looks at a recent message by Xi Jinping — “Get rich first, and then promote common prosperity.” The Chinese leader brought up this slogan at a meeting held this month with star entrepreneurs including DeepSeek founder Liang Wenfeng and Alibaba co-founder Jack Ma.
Xi has repeatedly stressed “common prosperity” — redistributing wealth to address income disparity — as being at the core of his economic thinking. Going in this direction was supposed to help him rack up the kind of economic achievements that would allow him to boast of eclipsing Deng Xiaoping, who had a shorter slogan, “Get rich first.”
With China’s economy stagnating, however, it appears Xi has had to make a concession to Deng and echo the late former leader’s economic message. The presence at last week’s symposium of Ma, who was among those who got rich first, was symbolic. A news article of the event, however, did not mention the rock star businessman, presumably to help Xi save face.
Delta Corp named by Baltic Exchange over claims of unpaid bills
Bulker operator’s CEO said it plans to go public remain unchanged
Bulker operator and logistics group Delta Corp has had its name circulated by the Baltic Exchange for allegedly not paying invoices owed to the organisation’s members.
On Thursday, Delta Corp’s CEO Mudit Paliwal told TradeWinds: “I haven’t seen the Baltic Exchange note, but we continue to actively close out files with brokers and Owners.”
Late last year, two federal courts in the US granted NYK Bulk & Projects Carriers permission to seize just over $1m in Delta Corp assets.
Maersk Plans to Invest $5 billion in India’s Shipping Infra
Global Shipping Giant A. P. Moller Maersk plans to invest $5 billion in India’s ports, terminals and landside infrastructure over the next five years. The investment will focus on expansion of the Pipavav Terminal, the development of one of the Container Terminals at Vadhavan Port and the logistics segment in India.
Jindal raises bid for Italian Steel Maker in Taranto, once one of Europe’s largest, has been mired in disputes for years. Jindal offer is of about 4.2 billion Euro’s to outbid rivals from Azewrbaijan. The proposal to the Italian Government consists of a payment of about 1 billion Euro’s for the assets, plus around 3 billion euro’s of investments to revamp the main steel plant.
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