The Entire shipping industry is a service industry and is affected by worldwide political upheavals, natural disasters, wars, trade sanctions – tariffs, etc. for business policies to stay firmly on the water.
On the macro-economic front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) made headlines this week after a prolonged period of policy inertia. The central bank unanimously lowered its key repo rate by 25 basis points to 6.25 percent during its February meeting, marking the first reduction since May 2020 and aligning with market expectations.
This move, aimed at bolstering economic growth amid rising global trade uncertainty, brought borrowing costs to their lowest level since January 2023. The decision was announced during RBI Governor’s inaugural monetary policy review, where he underscored the challenges posed by “divergent trajectories
of monetary policy across advanced economies, lingering geopolitical tensions, and elevated trade and policy uncertainties.”
The RBI projects GDP growth at 6.7 percent for FY2025-26 while maintaining its inflation forecast at 4.2 percent, with quarterly projections of 4.5 percent for Q1, 4.0 percent for Q2, and 3.8 percent for Q3. For the current fiscal year, real GDP is expected to grow at 6.4 percent, following an 8.2 percent expansion last year.
On the trade front, India’s cumulative exports (merchandise and services) reached an estimated $602.64 billion during April December 2024, reflecting a 6.03 percent year-on-year increase. Merchandise exports during this period stood at $321.71 billion, up
1.6 percent from the previous year, with key growth drivers including electronic goods, engineering products, rice, textiles, and cotton. Imports in December 2024 rose 4.8 percent
year-on-year to $59.95 billion, bringing total merchandise imports for April-December 2024 to $532.48 billion, up from $506.39 billion in the corresponding period of 2023.
As a result, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $210.77 billion from $189.74 billion
| a year earlier. | Adding | to | global trade |
| uncertainty, on | February | 1, | US President |
Donald Trump announced a new tariff policy targeting major trading partners. The plan includes a 25 percent tariff on imports from Mexico and Canada and a 10 percent tariff on goods from China. In response, after days of diplomatic warnings and calls for negotiations, Beijing declared retaliatory measures, including a 15 percent tariff on US coal and liquefied natural gas, alongside a 10 percent tariff on crude oil, agricultural machinery, and large-engine vehicles, effective February 10.
In this juncture, with the world’s two largest economies engaged in an escalating trade dispute, India finds itself in a position to further expand its international trade footprint. The
tariff standoff between the United States and China could redirect trade flows, creating new opportunities for Indian exporters, particularly in sectors such as manufacturing, agriculture, and energy. Additionally, with India’s economy still growing at a strong pace – albeit with some headwinds from domestic inflation and weaker consumption – the country remains a vital player in global trade.
For dry bulk shipping, these dynamics are of particular importance. India’s growing role in international trade, combined with the resurgence of its manufacturing sector and steady export growth, could provide much needed support for bulk trade volumes, particularly after a subdued start of 2025.
Capesize – Iron ore futures prices surged to a four-month high on Friday, posting strong weekly gains as steel demand in China showed signs of recovery following the Lunar New Year holidays. Production among Chinese blast furnace steelmakers picked up this week as operations resumed post-maintenance.
However, market sentiment remains clouded by escalating trade tensions, with the United States imposing sweeping 10 percent tariffs on imports, prompting retaliatory measures from China. Among Beijing’s counter-measures was a 15 percent tariff on US coal, a key steelmaking ingredient.
Amid these developments, the Baltic Capesize Average weakened further, closing the week at
$6,964 per day.
Baltic Exchange Capesize 182 Index – $
Route Description Value Change
===== ============================
C8_182 182000mt_Gib/Hamburg T/A RV 8,979 – 121
C9_182 182000mt Cont-Med trip China- Japan 30,144 – 12
C10_182 182000mt China-Japan transpacific RV 10,307 + 240
C14_182 182000mt_China-Brazil
R/V 12,928 + 533
C16_182 182000mt Backhaul -2,969 + 125
Panamax 82 Asia Index
P5_82 S. China one Indo RV $5,689 + 511
Supramax Asia Index
N China one Aussie or Pac RV $7,713 + 475
S. China via Indo to E.C.India $7,075 + $643 S110_63 S. China via Indo to S. China $6081
+659
Baltic Forward Assessments Period / Value per day Capesize
Feb’25 – $8404 Apr’25 – $17,039 June’25 – $19214 Q1’25 $10,691 Q4’25 – $21,450 Q1’26 – $12,314
Panamax’82 Q1’26 – $10,800 Q2’26 – $12,232 Cal’26 $12,111 Cal’27 $12,261
Supramax
Feb’25 – $7,379 Apr’25 – $11,183 Jun’25 $11,729 Q1’25 – $8,305 Q4’25 – $11,279 Q1’26 – $9626 Cal’26 – $11,075 Cal’27 – $11,188 Cal’28 – $11,250
Handysize:
Feb’25 – $7,925 Apr’25 – $10,825 Jun’25 – $11,363
Q2’25 – $11,142 Q4’25 – $10,963 Q1’26 – $9,463 Cal’26 $,10,600 Cal’27 – $10,675
BALTIC INDICES 07/02/2025
| DRY | INDEX: | 815 (+ 22) | |
| CAPESIZE INDEX: (+ 28) PANAMAX INDEX: | 840 1035 | ||
| (+ 6) SUPRAMAX INDEX: | 677 | ||
| (+ 28) HANDYSIZE INDEX: | 398 | ||
| (+ 10) | |||
| BCI TC AVG $/DAY 231) BPI82 TC AVG $/DAY | 6964 (+ 9318 | ||
| (+ 59) BSI TC AVG $/DAY | 8553 (+ | ||
| 345) BHSI TC AVG $/DAY | 7164 (+ | ||
| 184) | |||
TIME CHARTER FIXTURES :
‘Pacific Energy’ 2011 93763 dwt dely aps Richards
Bay 21/24 Feb trip redel Far East $12,000+$200,000
bb – Jera
‘Chinook’ 2012 93266 dwt dely Mariveles 10 Feb trip
via Indonesia redel Malaysia
$6,400 – Charterer not reported
‘Nikiland’ 2009 93251 dwt dely aps Richards Bay 14
Feb trip redel India
$10,000+$75,000 bb – Adhart Shipping
‘Yu Shun’ 2023 85123 dwt dely Mariveles 8/10 Feb trip
via Australia redel China
$10,000 – Seakudos
‘Krini’ 2020 81796 dwt dely Chiba 9 Feb trip via NoPac redel Japan $10,500 – Kline
‘AM Shraddha’ 2019 81754 dwt dely Kakogawa 11
Feb trip via EC Australia redel India $9,000 – Oldendorff
‘Salaminian’ 2015 81565 dwt dely Dafeng 5/9 Feb trip
via NoPac redel Singapore- Japan $7,750 first 55 days,
$8,250 thereafter – ASL Bulk –
<Corrects 6/2>
‘MY Vision’ Klaveness relet 2015 81502 dwt dely retro PMO 1 Feb trip via EC South America redel Singapore-
Japan $9,750 – Cargill
‘Shao Shan 8’ 2014 75366 dwt dely Longkou 11/20
Feb trip via NoPac redel Singapore-Japan $7,500 – cnr
‘CL Xiangtan’ 2023 64726 dwt dely Chittagong 11 Feb
trip via Indonesia redel WC India $7,000 – Bainbridge
‘Amorgos’ 2023 63696 dwt dely Qinzhou prompt trip
redel Bangladesh intention clinker $13,500 – Mainline
‘Dublin Eagle’ 2015 63549 dwt dely Singapore 5 Feb
trip via Indonesia redel WC India $8,500 – Platina –
<scrubber fitted>
‘Haato’ 2011 61472 dwt dely Damietta prompt trip redel N Continent $4,750 – cnr
‘Maple Harbour’ 2011 55832 dwt dely passing
Singapore prompt trip redel China $8,500 option redel SE Asia $8,000 – cnr
‘Effy N’ 2009 55809 dwt dely Isdemir prompt trip redel Spanish Mediterranean $5,000 –
Pacific Basin
‘Densa Tiger’ 2010 55089 dwt dely Gargoob prompt
trip redel US East Coast intention salt $5,500 first 45 days thereafter $10,000 – Drylog
‘Grace Bali’ 2002 52461 dwt dely Fangcheng prompt
trip redel Bangladesh intention clinker $13,000 – AMC
‘African Teal’ 2015 40652 dwt dely Yeosu prompt trip
redel Mumbai intention steel coils $7,750 – Pan Ocean
‘Beira’ 2017 40047 dwt dely Recalada prompt trip redel WC South America $15,500 – WBC
‘Tuna S’ 2019 38575 dwt dely Richards Bay prompt trip redel Klaipeda intention rock phosphates $7,000 – FSF
‘Pomorze’ 2008 38056 dwt dely Liepaja prompt trip
redel Morocco intention grains
$8,200 – Baltnav
‘Romy’ 2020 37897 dwt dely Mosqueiro prompt trip
redel Sunndalsora intention alumina $11,000 – WBC
‘IVS Thanda’ 2015 37715 dwt dely Laem Chabang
prompt 2 laden legs redel Singapore-Japan intention petcoke and logs $9,400 – Union Bulk
‘Handy Perth’ 2013 35177 dwt dely Fazendinha
prompt trip redel Continent
$9,000 – Norden
‘Lucilia C’ 2011 35009 dwt dely Recalada prompt trip
via Upriver redel WC South America $13,000 – Cargill
‘Meritius’ 2009 28417 dwt dely Teesport end Feb trip
redel Turkey intention scrap
$8,000 – Shield
‘Yaloussa’ 2008 28361 dwt dely Recalada prompt trip
redel Continent $9,800 – Summit
PERIOD
‘Guo Jia Neng Yuan 821’ 2024
85584 dwt dely
Campha 12 Feb 1 year redel worldwide $14,000 –
Cosco
‘YM Advance’ 2019 63509 dwt dely Brake prompt 4/6
months redel worldwide $12,250
– Oldendorff
VOYAGES ORE
‘Star Sienna’ 2017 190000/10 Tubarao opt West Africa/Qingdao 24 Feb/5 Mar
$17.40 fio 3 days shinc/30000shinc – cnr
‘TBN’ 170000/10 Port
Hedland/Qingdao 5/9 Mar $7.05 fio 80000shinc/30000shinc – Mercuria
COAL
‘Pangaea TBN’ 75000/10 Gladstone/Rotterdam 5/14 Mar $18.50 fio
35000shinc/25000shinc – TKSE
‘TBN’ 75000/10 Newport News/Gangavaram 15/24 Mar
$33.95 fio 40000shinc/40000shinc – RINL
– <6/2 fixture>
‘TBN’ 75000/10 Newport News/Visakhapatnam+options 10/19 Mar $33.45 fio 40000sshex/20000sshex – SAIL – <6/2 fixture>
© Baltic Exchange Information Services Ltd 2025
- Russia Assembles Flotilla of LNG Carriers in Arctic waters ahead of EU Transshipment Ban – Russia continues to amass LNG Carriers in preparation of the impending EU transshipment ban.
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- US Aircraft Carrier strike group leaves Red Sea for Europe as Houthis pause in attacks
- Spot Rates sink post Chinese New Year holidays – Does this mean a price freight war is brewing in the key Asia-Europe trades ?
- Majority of the Oil Industry executives called for cautious return to the Red Sea navigation towards the Suez Canal.
- Iran’s First Drone Carrier joins the Revolutionary Guard’s Fleet after taking delivery of the country’s first ship ship capable of launching drones and helicopters at Sea.
- Denmark commits $2 Billion to Arctic Defence amid growing security concerns. The agreement includes three new ice- capable military vessel’s and drones.
- Royal Navy tracks Russian Spy ship in the English Channel, intercepting it and monitoring the Spy ship.
- Denmark intensified inspections of Russian Oil Tankers in the critical shipping Lane in the Skagen Roads area.
Marex Media