2023 was a very positive year for global iron ore trade. In Jan-Dec 2023, global loadings of iron ore increased by +5.1% y-o-y to 1,631.9 mln tonnes, from 1,552.2 in the same period of 2022, based on AXS Marine vessel tracking data. The trend remained positive in Jan Oct 2024, with loadings growing by +3.0% y-o-y to 1383.2 mln tonnes.
Exports from Australia increased marginally by +0.9% y-o-y in Jan-Oct 2024 to 767.0 mln tonnes. From Brazil, exports surged by +7.0% y-o-y in Jan-Oct 2024 to 315.3 mln t.
From Canada there was a +3.6% y-o y increase to 50.7 mln tonnes. From South Africa volumes increased +1.2% y-o-y to 43.2 mln t.
India saw a correction of -1.3% y-o-y in Jan-Oct 2024 to 32.8 mln t.
Ukraine has seen a rebound to 12.0 mln t from just 0.6 mln t in the same period of 2023. This however is still below the 20.3 mln t exported by Ukraine in Jan-Oct 2021.
Demand has been again rebounding in China and the Middle East. Iron ore imports into China increased by +3.7% y-o-y in Jan-Oct 2024 to 1035.6 mln tonnes. Imports into Japan declined by -4.4% y-o-y to 76.5 mln t. Volumes into South Korea increased by +1.4% y-o-y to 59.9 mln t. Imports into Malaysia increased by +13.4% y-o-y to 19.5 mln tonnes. To Vietnam volumes were up by +40.4% y-o-y to 17.8 mln t. To Oman, volumes were up +18.0% y-o-y to 11.8 mln t, to Saudi Arabia by +21.8% y-o-y to 9.4 mln t, to Turkey +13.6% y-o-y to 7.5 mln t.
The European Union (27) is currently the third largest importer of iron ore in the world, after China, and Japan. Europe’s steel industry has long been overshadowed by China and the rest of Asia, and presently Europe accounts for just 7% of global crude steel production, and 5% of global iron ore imports. In the 12 months of 2023, the EU imported 71.6 mln tonnes of iron ore, which was a -9.3% decline y-o y, from 78.9 mln tonnes imported in the full year 2022. This was also well below the 87.7 mln tonnes imported in 2019 or the 98.2 mln t in 2018. In January-October 2024, imports into the EU rebounded by +2.3% y o-y to 61.7 mln t, from 60.3 mln t in the same period of 2023. About 48% of imports into the EU in Jan-Oct 2024 were loaded on Capesize or VLOC tonnage, about 39% on Panamaxes or Post-Pmx, and 9% on Supramaxes.
In terms of individual countries, EU – Iron Ore Imports by Source in Jan-Oct 45.7% of EU imports in Jan-Oct 2024 were done by the Netherlands (largely due to the importance of Rotterdam as a gateway port). German ports accounted for 17.7% of imports in Jan-Oct 2024, followed by France with 13.4%, Belgium with 7.0%, Spain with 5.3%, Italy with 3.7%, Slovenia with 3.2%. Looking at individual discharging ports in the EU, we have: Rotterdam (21.5 mln tonnes of iron ore discharged in Jan-Oct 2024), Hamburg (7.6 mln t), Dunkirk (6.0 mln t), Ijmuiden (5.4 mln t), Ghent (4.1 mln t), Bremen (3.2 mln t), Gijon (2.8 mln t), Fos (2.2 mln t), Taranto (2.2 mln t), Koper (2.0 mln t), Raahe (1.1 mln t), Constanta (0.7 mln t), Swinoujscie (0.2 mln t). When it comes to the sources of the shipments, Brazil has now lost its top spot to Canada. Canada was the overall top supplier of iron ore to the European Union in Jan-Oct 2024, accounting for 35.1% of the EU’s total imports last year. Shipments from Canada to the EU increased by +14.9% y-o-y in Jan-Oct 2024 to 21.6 mln tonnes, from 18.8 mln t in Jan-Oct 2023. Shipments from Brazil to the EU, on the other hand, declined in Jan-Oct 2024 by -4.0% y-o-y to 14.3 mln tonnes. Brazil accounted for 23.2% of the EU’s ore imports in Jan-Oct 2024.
CAPESIZE MARKET
ATLANTIC AND PACIFIC BASIN
A challenging week with substantial losses and uncertain fundamentals in both basins. Growing tonnage list and slow demand affecting confidence and causing rates to move into a downward trend which seems unlikely to improve in the short term. Limited activity and weak sentiment kept pressure. In Pacific, RioTinto fixed five TBN vessels to load its cargoes of 170,000mt +/-10% iron ore from Dampier to Qingdao. Laydays13/15 December at $10.10 /mt, 15/17 December at $9.80, 16/18 December at $9.40 and two shipments with laydays 17/19 Decemberat$8.95and$8.85/mt. BHP fixed three TBN vessels to load its cargoes of 160,000mt +/-10% iron ore from Port Hedland to Qingdao, one with laydays 12/14 December at $10.00 /mt and two with laydays 13/15 December at $9.70and$9.25/mt. In the Atlantic basin CSN fixed a TBN vessel to load a cargo of 170,000mt +/-10% iron ore from Itaguaí to Qingdao, laydays 27/29 December at a freight level slightly below $22.00 /mt. Cosco fixed the MV Lucky Queen (182,354dwt|2024built) to load a cargo of 170,000mt+/-10%ironore from Tubarao option West Africa to China, laydays 1/3 January 2025 at $19.60/mt. NSC fixed a Cargill TBN vessel to load a cargo of 190,000mt+/-10%iron ore from Pointe Noire to Japan, laydays 12/21 December at $26.75 /mt. RioTinto fixed a KochTBN vessel to load a cargo of 190,000mt+/-10% iron ore from Seven Islands to Qingdao, laydays 20/26 December at $26.65/mt. Sino Africa fixed a Koch TBN vessel to load a cargo of 170,000mt +/ 10% iron ore from Freetown to Qingdao, laydays 21/25 December at $20.85/mt. Alam fixed a TBN vessel to load a cargo of 170,000mt+/-10% bauxite from Kamsar to Qingdao, laydays 24/30 December at $23.75/mt. Out of South Africa, Solebay fixed the MV Mount Anosha (169,103dwt | 2009 built) to load a cargo of 170,000mt +/-10% coal from Richards Bay to Qingdao, laydays 12/18 December at $15.50/mt.
PANAMAX MARKET
ATLANTIC BASIN
Rates remained on a downtrend on Atlantic routes. P1A_82 lost another $200/d and an 81,000 dwt built in 2011 was fixed passing Gib 20 Nov at $11,250/d for 2 laden legs with redelivery Atlantic. An 82,000 dwt built in 2016, scrubber fitted for charters account, was fixed with a big grain house aps SW Passero 12/15 Dec for a tct redely Skaw/Gib at $11,750/d +$250,000 gbb. P2A_82 was the Atlantic route that suffered the most losing some $800/d and a lme 2010 built with dely passing Falmouth 24 Nov was fixed for a tct via US EC redely India at $12,000/d. ECSAm fronthaul remained almost unchanged and an 81,000 dwt 2014 built was fixed aps ECSAm 12/15 Dec for a trip redely SE Asia at $13,300/d +330,000 gbb.
PACIFIC BASIN
Weaker coal and minerals demand, particularly from China, affected rates negatively in Pacific. A 10 years old lme was fixed at $6,500/d basis dely Taiwan for a trip via Indo to India. At the end of the week a 75/10 cargo from Gladstone to Xiamen was fixed at $11.00/mt, reflecting a broader decline in the Pacific market. NoPac RV showed mixed results depending on specs, but very recently an 81,000 dwt built 2011 was fixed at $7,000/d basis dely Spore/Jpn range.
SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET
US GULF / NORTH AMERICA
The market kept the same trend of the previous week. Trans-Atlantic trips were fixed with Supramax tonnage fixing around $18,000/d with coal to W Med and around $16,500/d with grains.
EAST COAST SOUTH AMERICA
Handysize rates increased slightly due to the good number of fresh cargoes in the area that kept increasing. A 30,000 built 2012 open Rio de Janeiro 27 Nov was fixed at $16,000/d basis dely Recalada redely W Africa int. Matadi. A 36,000 built 2012 open Paranagua 20 Nov was fixed at $15,500/d basis dely Recalada redely S Brazil.
NORTH EUROPE / CONTINENT
Activity slowed with few fixtures reported and a lack of fresh cargoes that allowed the tonnage list to grow. On Handies, the scrap trade to E Med was reported between $11/12,500/d.
BLACK SEA / MEDITERRANEAN
The weren’t notable changes, but the trend remined a slow and constant descent on all the routes. At this stage we do not see a reason for a shock which might lead the market to a sudden change and the expectation for a quiet end of the year seems to be largely shared by market’s participants.
SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET
Petcoke to ECSAm was fixed at $17,000/d on an Ultramax and to Spore/Jpn range at $20,000/d. dwt built 2012 open Recife 27 Nov was fixed at $15,000/d basis dely Recalada to Dakar with grains. A 38,000 dwtons was reported at $13,250/d basis dely Santos to Casablanca with sugar. Rates for larger units increased at the beginning of the week, but then slid ending lower. A 60,000 dwt built 2017 was reported at $13,250/d + 325,000 gbb basis dely ECSAm 8/12 Dec to F East. At the end of the week fronthaul trips basis dely W Africa to China were fixed at $13,500/d, less the previous week. $9/11,500/d. Rates to ECSAm remained at levels similar to the previous week around $7/8,000/d. On Supramax activity was low as well. Trips with scrap to the Med were fixed between 35,000 dwt Handysize tonnage was fixed at $8,500/d, -$500/d compared to the previous week, but TCE on some voyages already broke the $8,000/d mark.
TransAtlantic trips on Handies remained at $9,500/10,000/d level to USG and around $7,500/8,000/d to ECSAm. $14,500/16,000/d while front hauls to Asia were $16,500/18,000/d. fixed around On TA, Supramaxes were fixed at $7,500/8,000/d, while Ultramaxes were not above $8,500/d tonso USG. Fronthaul was weak as well, Handies were fixing at $12,000/d from W Med to China via COGH while Supramaxes went from $17/17,500/d tonso $16,000/d, Ultramaxes were around $17,000/d, butons keep slowing.
SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE
US GULF / NORTH AMERICA
The market kept the same trend of the previous week. Trans Atlantic trips were fixed with Supramax tonnage fixing around $18,000/d with coal to W Med and around $16,500/d with grains to E Med, wood pellets to UK were fixed at $16,000/d. Petcoke to ECSAm was fixed at $17,000/d on an Ultramax and to Spore/Jpn range at $20,000/d.
EAST COAST SOUTH AMERICA
Handysize rates increased slightly due to the good number of fresh cargoes in the area that kept increasing. A 30,000 built 2012 open Rio de Janeiro 27 Nov was fixed at $16,000/d basis dely Recalada redely W Africa int. Matadi. A 36,000 built 2012 open Paranagua 20 Nov was fixed at $15,500/d basis dely Recalada redely S Brazil.
A 37,000 dwt built 2012 open Recife 27 Nov was fixed at $15,000/d basis dely Recalada to Dakar with grains. A 38,000 dwt was reported at $13,250/d basis dely Santos to Casablanca with sugar. Rates for larger units increased at the beginning of the week, but then slid ending lower. A 60,000 dwt built 2017 was reported at $13,250/d + 325,000 gbb basis dely ECSAm 8/12 Dec to F East. At the end of the week fronthaul trips basis dely W Africa to China were fixed at $13,500/d, less the previous week.
NORTH EUROPE / CONTINENT
Activity slowed with few fixtures reported and a lack of fresh cargoes that allowed the tonnage list to grow. On Handies, the scrap trade to E Med was reported between $11/12,500/d while TA trips were done between $9/11,500/d. Rates to ECSAm remained at levels similar to the previous week around $7/8,000/d. On Supramax activity was low as well. Trips with scrap to the Med were fixed between 35,000 dwt Handysize tonnage was fixed at $8,500/d, -$500/d compared to the previous week, but TCE on some voyages already broke the $8,000/d mark. TransAtlantic trips on Handies remained at $9,500/10,000/d level to USG and around $7,500/8,000/d to ECSAm. $14,500/16,000/d while fronthauls to Asia were fixed around $16,500/18,000/d.
BLACK SEA / MEDITERRANEAN
The weren’t notable changes, but the trend remined a slow and constant descent on all the routes. At this stage we do not see a reason for a shock which might lead the market to a sudden change and the expectation for a quiet end of the year seems to be largely shared by market participants.
35,000 dwt Handysize tonnage was fixed at $8,500/d, -$500/d compared to the previous week, but TCE on some voyages already broke the $8,000/d mark. TransAtlantic trips on Handies remained at $9,500/10,000/d level to USG and around $7,500/8,000/d to ECSAm.
On TA, Supramaxes were fixed at $7,500/8,000/d, while Ultramaxes were not above $8,500/d to USG. Fronthaul was weak as well, Handies were fixing at $12,000/d from W Med to China via COGH while Supramaxes went from $17/17,500/d to $16,000/d, Ultramaxes were around $17,000/d, but keep slowing.
SUPRAMAX & HANDYSIZE MARKET
FAR EAST / PACIFIC
Handy rates kept facing downward pressure. In Pacific the number of cargoes was still limited while the tonnage list was building up. There was a feeling rates might have reached a bottom. Another slow week for larger units. While the start of the week showed some signs of improvement, it ended again on a negative note. Supramax tonnage with dely Singapore was fixing Indonesia- N China at $9,000/d. An Ultramax open N China was fixed for a NoPac RV at $11,500/d.
NEWBUILDING ORDERS
In the container sector TMS group ordered 4 x 7,900 teu carriers at S Korean HJSC Yeongdo yard. The price of each vessel was reported around $108 mln, deliveries are expected to start in Dec 2027 and conclude by June 2029. The Greek owner Navios Shipmanagement exercised an option the same yard for 2 x 7,900 teu carriers, deliveries are set in Sept 2026 and in Dec 2027, Navios now has 4 units on order that the yard. In the gas segment, Navigator Gas Denmark exercised an option for 2 x additional 48,500 cbm LPG/ethylene carriers, increasing its total order at Jiangnan Shipyard to 4 vessels. The vessels, priced at $102.9 mln each, will feature dual fuel propulsion. Deliveries expected in March 2027. It was a slow week in the dry segment, where the Greek company Eurodry ordered 2 x 64,000 dwtons Ultramax vessels at Nantong Xiangyu. The vessels were priced $35.9 mln each and are are scheduled for delivery in mid-2027. Vertom Scheepvaart returned to India, placing an order at Chowgule Shipbuilding for 4 x 10,700 dwt tween-decker vessels with diesel hybrid propulsion. Designed to carry a mix of dry cargo and breakbulk/projects cargo, these vessels will be deployed on the Europe Caribbean line and are scheduled for delivery in 2027 and 2028.
The order follows the one placed by the Dutch owner earlier this year at Chowgule for 12 x 5,600 dwt diesel electric cargo ships.
In the tanker segment, New Times Shipyard secured an order from Zodiac Maritime for 2 x 115,000 dwt dual fuel LR2s, deliveries are set for June 2027.
DEMOLITONSION SALES
Another lack-luster week across the Indian sub-continent demolition market, where political uncertainty, economic challenges, and a clear lack of direction meets a shortage of physical tonnage. That said, prices seem to have stabilized, and while levels around $460/470 LT/LDT could seem disappointing when compared to the start of 2024, historically speaking they are well above average. Bangladesh remains the go to market for anything other than strictly HKC compliant tonnage. A recent sale of the vintage Panamax bulker, namely MV JULE around 9,726 LDT for a price (on a delivered basis) of $472 per LT/LDT gave a fair reflection of where the market currently is.
SECONDHAND SALES
Soft week in the second hand markets, with few sales reported for dry bulkers, mainly in the Supra segment. For Newcastlemax the AMBER HORIZON 207,000dwt 2010 Universal was sold at $33mln. The Japanese Supramax ATLANTIC SUN 55,000dwt 2009Mitsui was reported sold to undisclosed buyers in excess of $15 mln, as comparison the AURORASB 56,000dwt 2009 Mitsui was sold last week to Indonesian buyers around $16mln. Chinese buyers bought the Chinese built PIESCES FIRST 93,000 dwt 2010 Jiangsu (BTWS fitted) at $12.8mln. The modern Ultramax MH OLSO 63,000 dwt 2023 New Dayang was reported sold at $32.5mln. Tanker activity was stronger compared to dry. 2 x VLCC changed hands, the XIDI 306,352 DWT 2004 built and the TRICIAII 281,050 DWT 2000 Mitsubishi built, bought by Asian and Chinese buyers for $30 mln and $20.90 mln respectively. The Aframax SOFIAII 105,400DWT built 2008 Sumitomo was sold for $32 mln. In the chemical tanker sector two Portuguese vessels were sold to undisclosed buyers: KIISLA 14,750 DWT 2004 Viana Do Castelo, SUULA 14,665 DWT 2005 Viana Do Castelo sold en-bloc for $12mln.
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