The US presidential election results is now only days away and the result is still regarded as a coin toss. Given the high probability of recounts and contested states, we will unlikely have a result on Nov 6, the day after the election. Trump and the Republicans have already clarified that they will contest the result should they lose – an extension of his “fight, fight, fight” principle. Harris and the Democrats have remained silent on electoral shenanigans and are more likely to concede should they have lost. However, it is forecast to be so close that both sides may request re-counts, keeping Americans and the world on tenterhooks. Possibly the worst result would be a clean sweep with either side winning the presidency, the House, and the Senate. The power to execute policy will be unbridled and, in both cases, will almost certainly be inflationary and require that interest rates stay higher for longer. 10-year US treasury and UK gilt yields are soaring. The Democrats have a socialist
redistributionist agenda that will push green policies and greater regulation. In contrast, the Republicans promise to bring in narrowly targeted tax cuts favouring corporations and well-off households, a drill-baby-drill policy, and looser regulation. Voters are faced with poor choices, and little idea as to which policies will have been intentionally left to wither and die on the campaign trail, and which ones may have a chance to get enacted. Shared control of Congress could be the best outcome as cross-the-aisle negotiations and compromise will be required to pass any laws. Either President will impose greater tariffs on Chinese imports with Trump promising tough action as he tries to lower the bilateral trade deficit and punish what he sees as unfair trade practices and state support. There are signs that China is making conciliatory overtures towards the US and Europe as its economy is not best placed for a full-on trade war, but it may be a little late to head one off. In Riyadh, the CEO of Goldman Sachs remarked how the US economy is proving to be “incredibly resilient”, with AI providing the tailwind.
AI is also a bone of contention for the two countries with the US being a leader in high- end microchips and China having a stranglehold on the global supply and processing of AI-enabling rare earths. China has accused the US of restricting its growth by denying it access to certain hi-tech products while weaponizing its EV sales to Europe which is undermining the German auto industry.
An early casualty is the giant Volkswagen, Europe’s largest carmaker, which plans to shut three German factories, lay off tens of thousands of workers, and impose 10% pay cuts on the retained workforce. VW is suffering from lower sales of its cars in China, greater competition from Chinese EVs in Europe, and higher energy, material, and staff costs. It is no longer competitive and illustrates how Germany, Europe, and the US are on a collision course with China over trade. So far, China is winning the global race for EVs, wind, solar, electric power generation,
manufacturing, minerals processing and control of global supply chains.
While the rest of the world retreats from green targets, China is embracing them by going full pelt into renewables such as solar and wind on top of hydro and nuclear. But, to dovetail these in as it phases out carbon, it is still building coal-fired power plants to avoid periodic blackouts.
Bloomberg points out that China’s coal plants are the largest contributors to global warming and their lifespans are being prolonged by robust electricity use from this cheap but pollutive energy source. In the first 3Qs of 2024, China’s thermal generation was up 1.9% YoY, and electricity consumption was up 7.9%, the highest since the post-Covid manufacturing boom of 2021, as demand from data centres and cooling rise, despite weak economic growth. It will provide near-term support for domestic thermal coal production and
seaborne thermal coal imports from Indonesia, Australia, and elsewhere.
A salutary lesson may be found on the oil side. PetroChina is shutting its largest refinery in north China in mid-2025, a 410k-bpd unit in Dalian, representing 3% of national output, due to overcapacity and lower fuel demand from slowing economic growth and electrification of China’s car fleet.
The dry and wet bulk shipping sectors have held up well but there are risks to China’s key raw material imports from the fast rate of the domestic green transition and to its steel and refined product exports from rising trade tensions. There is an urgent global need to de- carbonise and tackle climate change but, for shipping, it is a case of be careful what you wish for.
Dry Cargo Chartering
Capesize markets witnessed a much more stable week as averages remained comparatively flat, again indicating that a bottom may have been found. Overall time- charter averages settled at $15,329, a slight decline of $66 from last week. From the Pacific, activity slowed in the second half of the week owing to holidays in Singapore. Freight paid by Rio Tinto for their usual Dampier/Qingdao run ranged from $8.55 pmt to $8.75 pmt. From West Africa, Cosco covered a Boffa, Guinea/China cargo of 170,000 mtons 10% at $21.00 pmt, while Icon Gulf chartered Captain Vangelis (169,044-dwt, 2009) for Kamsar/Qingdao loading 10/15 November at $21.70 pmt. From South America, Mercuria took Cape Gannet (182,027-dwt, 2024) for Tubarao/Qingdao 21/25 November at $20.35 pmt, and another TBN vessel with a West Africa loading option at $20.35 pmt. Additionally, Oldendorff fixed Mineral Honshu (181,408-dwt, 2012) for 170,000 mtons 10% coal Puerto
Drummond/Gijon at $10.40 pmt. From Canada, Rio Tinto chartered Delos (175,157- dwt, 2012) for Seven Islands/China at $26.00 pmt. On period, SM Gladstone (179,255-dwt, 2010) was fixed delivery China for 10/12 months trading at around $24,000.
Likewise, Panamax markets also seemingly plateaued with rates remaining fairly balanced throughout the week. There were some reports of better than last done in Asia, NoPac-Far East for example, otherwise activity was said to be generally muted in both basins. By Friday, timecharter averages ended up at $10,789, another small fall of $24. In the Pacific,
| Marilita (81,834-dwt, | 2019) | fixed | delivery |
| Qinhuangdao for a | NoPac | round | trip at |
$12,700, YM Compass (81,127-dwt, 2023)
was covered delivery Lianyungang for a trip via East Coast Australia to Japan at $13,250, and NS United chartered CK Angie (81,147-dwt, 2011) delivery Zhoushan for a trip via North China to Japan at $10,250.
In the Indian Ocean, Seapol fixed Star Emily (76,417-dwt, 2004) delivery Tuticorin for a trip via Richards Bay redelivery India at $11,500.
In the Atlantic, LTE took YM Navigator (81,955-dwt, 2014) delivery APS Trombetas for a trip to Aughinish at $20,000, while Al Ghurair fixed Yasa Team (75,621-dwt, 2006) delivery APS East Coast South America for a trip via the Arabian Gulf redelivery PMO at $14,000 plus $400,000 bb.
Additionally, SAIL covered 80,000 mtons 10% coal Gladstone/Visakhapatnam for loading 21/30 November at $15.95 pmt.
Market fundamentals softened across all basins this week in the Supramax sector. The BSI closed at $14,704 down $1,098 from last week’s report. In the Atlantic, activity slowed down on the Continent, Trinity (56,721-dwt 2010) open Gijon fixed at $15,000 via the Continent for a scrap trip to East
Mediterranean. Genco Pyrenees (58,018-dwt, 2010) fixed on subs for a trip via Iskenderun to St. Nicolas (Greece) with bauxite at $11,500 to Weco Bulk. The US Gulf was observed to lose its ground after a balanced few weeks, Thor Maximus (55,695-dwt, 2005) delivery Port Arthur prompt fixed for a trip redelivery Turkey with petcoke at $19,750 by Bunge. Golden Trader (63,677-dwt, 2021) delivery US East Coast fixed for a trip redelivery Poland with coal at $21,000 by SwissMarine.
A fronthaul trip, Bao Lucky (63,367-dwt, 2014) delivery Mississippi River prompt was fixed by Reachy for a trip, redelivery China at $22,500. Further South, Aquaprosper (61,208-dwt, 2015) fixed delivery Lagos via Abidjan to China at $19,000 with AENav.
With Deepavali, the Indian Ocean shipping market experienced a decline in fresh spot inquiries. This led to a decrease in hire rates, with West Coast India to Pacific fronthaul routes falling below the $10,000 threshold for the first time recently. The Pacific Ocean also
remained subdued, lacking any significant factors to stimulate the spot market. Cariboo (55,408-dwt, 2011) fixed delivery CJK around 30/31 Oct for a trip redelivery Indonesia at
$11,500. There was lack of prompt fresh prompt Indonesian coal in Southeast Asia, Amis Wisdom VI (61,456-dwt, 2011) delivery Makassar fixed for a trip via Indonesia redelivery South China with coal at $17,500 by Tongli, Oriole (57,809-dwt, 2011) delivery Shanwei prompt fixed for a trip via Indonesia redelivery Thailand with coal at $10,750 by Chinaland.
In the Indian Ocean, the West India region was still soft with too much tonnage in the area, Union Explorer (57,700-dwt, 2011) delivery Dibba prompt was fixed for a trip redelivery Chittagong with limestone at $12,000, Mandarin Phoenix (56,891-dwt, 2010) delivery Muldwarka fixed for a trip redelivery China with salt at $9,000.
Down in the south, SSI Triumph (61,236-dwt, 2014) delivery Durban fixed a trip redelivery
China with minerals at $18,000 plus $180,000 bb by Norden.
A quiet week in the Handysize sector, the BHSI closed today at $12,926 down $172 since our last report on the 25th of last month.
Both Mediterranean and the Continent markets maintained their current positions, with rates exchanged at levels similar to those seen recently. Despite this stability, there were indications that the market was beginning to soften. Norden covered their Continent grains run to West Mediterranean on Regius (33,395- dwt, 2016) open Teesport passing Skaw via Rostock to Algeria at $12,000. Nova Marine covered their intra continent grains trip with La Louise (37,207-dwt, 2012) delivery Holland via Baltic to Ireland at $8,900. A 37,000-dwt, open Casablanca fixed via Algeria basis redelivery Caribbean at $12,500, while a 35,000-dwt fixed for a trip via East Mediterranean to US Gulf with bulk cement at close to $12,200. Additionally, a 34,000-dwt fixed delivery
Mediterranean for trip redelivery West Africa with clinker at $14,000.
The US Gulf remained firm, UBC Houston (38,762-dwt, 2015) open Mobile, fixed a petcoke intra-gulf trip at $16,500, while Arklow Spray (34,919-dwt, 2014) open Progreso fixed on subs basis delivery South West-Pass to West Mediterranean with grains in the mid-low teens to Bunge. In South America, Adventurer (32,417-dwt, 2011) open Fortaleza fixed delivery arrival pilot station Rio Grande, redelivery US Gulf with pig iron at $14,000. Jumierah Beach (32,353-dwt, 2014 ) fixed delivery Barcarena for a trip to Tunisia at
$16,000. Orcun C (31,989-dwt, 2012) open Port Harcourt fixed delivery Santos for a trip redelivery Casablanca with sugar at $15,000.
It was reported, a 38,000-dwt fixed via West Africa to Far East with minerals at $16,000.
In the Indian Ocean, Indonesian Bulker (37,725-dwt, 2017) open Fujairah fixed delivery Mina Saqr for a trip basis redelivery Bahrain with Limestone at $10,100 to Polestar.
Yasa Jasmine (40,238-dwt, 2023) open Iraq, fixed delivery Mesaieed for a trip redelivery East Coast India with urea at $14000 to Allianz Bulk.
The Pacific remains challenging, with a rising open tonnage list and a lack of cargo availability, leading to further downward pressure on rates.
In the Far East, a 40,000-dwt vessel open China was heard fixed to Malaysia at mid
$13,000 levels. A 33,000-dwt vessel open China was heard fixed to USA at around
$12,000 levels while another 33,000-dwt vessel open China was heard fixed to Continent at around $13,000. Cobelfret fixed Acuity (37,149-dwt 2011) basis delivery Cebu for a trip redelivery Pakistan at $11,000.
In South East Asia, a 29,000-dwt vessel was heard fixed from Singapore to Onsan at around
$10,000 while a 34,000-dwt vessel passing Singapore was heard fixed at $12,000 for an Australia/Arabian Gulf trip.
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